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Wilco

Member
Nov 25, 2018
470


Charting with Dan was off last week but its back this week



Interesting analysis on Toy Story 4 (but sure takes long to get to the point!)
Toy Story 3 opening being disappointing in 2010 I think it was due to Shrek The Third opening bigger 2 years before. But TS3 went on to gross more 100M domestic and more 200M worldwide so maybe TS4 is just that, a franchise with great legs that is not meant to behave with a big frontloaded opening.
Next weeks will be interesting to see. Personally I'm not counting on 1B so far but might be very wrong of course.
 

Alexandros

Member
Oct 26, 2017
17,800
To compare them? Again, it's box office numbers being posted in the box office thread. It's kinda like asking why you'd compare game sales in the NPD/Media Create thread.

I'm genuinely struggling with this now. He posted the numbers, with an explanation of what they are, what the qualifiers are. It's not apples and oranges, it's the biggest opening weekends of films, they're all apples.

I am struggling as well because there doesn't seem to be any obvious point of comparison. As I've pointed out before, Endgame is a special case as Avatar was a special case for different reasons. The type of both box office runs makes that crystal clear. The point of making these comparisons, which I assume is to determine a movie's longterm appeal and staying power, is rendered moot when the method for determining said legs is based on a multiplier of its opening weekend. It should be blatantly obvious to everyone that a movie with an abnormally large opening weekend would not hold up when using this particular metric, which is not suitable for such situations.

I am honestly puzzled that this very simple statement encounters any sort of resistance.



Maybe because Data is interesting and you don't need a motivator to compare data? Like, what are you on about? You are looking for malicious intentions because people post objective data. If you don't like the data, then the problem is that you don't acknowledge objective data. Why are you "allowed" to post about the Opening Weekend of the movie? Why is that data more or less important than the Multiplier over its entire run? Should we maybe attack and criticize anybody who posts data about the movie's opening weekend because, new rule, from now on we should only talk about the Multipliers, not the Opening Weekend?

The data shows, interestingly, that Avengers: Endgame didn't have great legs. That alone is an interesting point of data I'm happy to know about. The fact that Star Wars: TFA for example had a way, way better multiplier and Avg Drop and that it, thus, ended up earning more money despite a 100M less opening weekend is incredibly interesting by itself. There are various points of argument you could extract from that alone. The fact that the average week drop is so much higher than other huge movies in the US like Black Panther, Hunger Games or Beauty and the Beast could indicate that Endgame failed to attract much new support over its running time for example. That people who wanted to watch it before release watched it and people who didn't want to watch it didn't watch it, while those other movies seemingly kept attracting new audiences who maybe weren't interested at launch thanks to word of mouth. Could this indicate that this is the absolute ceiling for the MCU right now? I don't know! But it's a possible point of discussion based, among other things, on this data.

Attacking people merely for posting data because that data doesn't feed into a narrative you want to establish fucking sucks, dude.

Ok, first things first: I didn't attack anyone nor is it my intention to attack anyone. Are we clear on that?

Moving on, the conclusions you've reached are to me a very clear indication that this data by itself, without taking into account numerous other variables and facts, serves no purpose. Data without proper analysis and interpretation is just noise. Specifically, the way this data was presented did encourage the sort of flawed (in my opinion of course) conclusions that people are reaching.

It is my opinion then that "Endgame doesn't have good legs" is an oversimplification because I find the method of calculating the metric of "legs" to be unsuitable for cases such as Endgame. I also think it is a big mistake to make comparisons between movies that launched at different times of the year.
 

Cpt-GargameL

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,024
D90970RWkAImwB1
 

berzeli

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,384
I am struggling as well because there doesn't seem to be any obvious point of comparison. As I've pointed out before, Endgame is a special case as Avatar was a special case for different reasons. The type of both box office runs makes that crystal clear. The point of making these comparisons, which I assume is to determine a movie's longterm appeal and staying power, is rendered moot when the method for determining said legs is based on a multiplier of its opening weekend. It should be blatantly obvious to everyone that a movie with an abnormally large opening weekend would not hold up when using this particular metric, which is not suitable for such situations.

I am honestly puzzled that this very simple statement encounters any sort of resistance.
There is, and it has explained repeatedly. The comparison is between the films with the biggest opening weekends.

If all cases are special, then no cases are special. And Endgame isn't special, which is exactly what the comparison shows.

Of course it's a suitable metric when you compare nothing but big openers, if phon had used total earnings instead of openings then it would have been skewed. It is, again, a comparison of the biggest opening weekends and how movies that open really big fare. That's it. There is nothing more to it than that.

It encounters resistance because you are at this point wilfully obtuse about it. Either you do not understand what the comparison is, or you are so entrenched in hyping Endgame that you are incapable of being rational about an incredibly normal way of comparing films.
 

Alexandros

Member
Oct 26, 2017
17,800
There is, and it has explained repeatedly. The comparison is between the films with the biggest opening weekends.

If all cases are special, then no cases are special. And Endgame isn't special, which is exactly what the comparison shows.

Of course it's a suitable metric when you compare nothing but big openers, if phon had used total earnings instead of openings then it would have been skewed. It is, again, a comparison of the biggest opening weekends and how movies that open really big fare. That's it. There is nothing more to it than that.

It encounters resistance because you are at this point wilfully obtuse about it. Either you do not understand what the comparison is, or you are so entrenched in hyping Endgame that you are incapable of being rational about an incredibly normal way of comparing films.

I don't participate in these discussions often but I think it would be best to stick to criticizing arguments instead of making comments on a personal level. I may not agree with your views on this topic but I don't think less of you as a person because of it. My opinion is clear: I dispute the value of the data posted earlier because data in a vacuum, without proper analysis, is pointless.
 

berzeli

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,384
I don't participate in these discussions often but I think it would be best to stick to criticizing arguments instead of making comments on a personal level. I may not agree with your views on this topic but I don't think less of you as a person because of it. My opinion is clear: I dispute the value of the data posted earlier because data in a vacuum, without proper analysis, is pointless.
I'm not really making comments on any more of a personal level than you have been so spare me the feigned indignity.

The data isn't in a vacuum, it was presented to you, in context, and with analysis. So your insistence that it is pointless is a reflection on you and not PhoncipleBone or his post.

Saying that you can't compare Endgame to other movies is like saying you can't compare sales of an Xbox exclusive to a Playstation exclusive. Or how a game available on Steam does versus a game on Epic/GOG/Origin/Uplay/Whatever. If everything is a special case, then nothing is and we cannot compare anything to anything. It is a comparison, not a competition, or a clinical trial where the conditions must be identical for the results to be useful.
You are complaining about numbers in a thread about numbers, the post has now repeatedly been explained to you. If you choose to ignore that then I can't help you.

But for one last time:
It is a post comparing the biggest opening weekends, the endgamepoint of which is to see how really big openers do. There isn't a 1:1 ratio between openings and legs so comparing them has merit. There really is nothing more to it than that.
 

Cpt-GargameL

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,024
I'm not really making comments on any more of a personal level than you have been so spare me the feigned indignity.

The data isn't in a vacuum, it was presented to you, in context, and with analysis. So your insistence that it is pointless is a reflection on you and not PhoncipleBone or his post.

Saying that you can't compare Endgame to other movies is like saying you can't compare sales of an Xbox exclusive to a Playstation exclusive. Or how a game available on Steam does versus a game on Epic/GOG/Origin/Uplay/Whatever. If everything is a special case, then nothing is and we cannot compare anything to anything. It is a comparison, not a competition, or a clinical trial where the conditions must be identical for the results to be useful.
You are complaining about numbers in a thread about numbers, the post has now repeatedly been explained to you. If you choose to ignore that then I can't help you.

But for one last time:
It is a post comparing the biggest opening weekends, the endgamepoint of which is to see how really big openers do. There isn't a 1:1 ratio between openings and legs so comparing them has merit. There really is nothing more to it than that.
.

And also, it's not just here that these comparisons are made, it's all over the internet. It's in box office websites, forums etc where you will find this very comparison amongst others. It's just normal box office behavior (to compare) no matter the differences between the films. If I'm correct, the data that was posted came directly from BoxOfficeMojo, which is a box office tracking website, if not the biggest and most well known.
 

Alexandros

Member
Oct 26, 2017
17,800
Rule of cool
Also that's better than the official posters

Eh, I don't much like it to be honest. It looks sort of goofy to me.

It is a post comparing the biggest opening weekends, the endgamepoint of which is to see how really big openers do. There isn't a 1:1 ratio between openings and legs so comparing them has merit. There really is nothing more to it than that.

Ok, let's agree to disagree then and leave it at that.
 

Cpt-GargameL

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,024
It seems like the re-expansion will be on only 4 days
Source? Also, I was thinking myself 1 week along with SweetNicole I believe. It makes sense though if it's only 4 days and it seems that in those 4 days Endgame will be playing in Dolby at AMC. I just checked my AMC app and Toy Story 4 looks to be giving up Dolby this Friday as it only shows IMAX and Digital formats from 6/28 onwards. (Annabelle is only showing in IMAX/Digital)

If that's the case then it'll only be Fri, Sat, Sun, Mon and Dolby/IMAX go to FFH Tuesday.

With that said, it's definitely not passing AVATAR if this is indeed the case.
 

Sulik2

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,168
Maybe because Data is interesting and you don't need a motivator to compare data? Like, what are you on about? You are looking for malicious intentions because people post objective data. If you don't like the data, then the problem is that you don't acknowledge objective data. Why are you "allowed" to post about the Opening Weekend of the movie? Why is that data more or less important than the Multiplier over its entire run? Should we maybe attack and criticize anybody who posts data about the movie's opening weekend because, new rule, from now on we should only talk about the Multipliers, not the Opening Weekend?

The data shows, interestingly, that Avengers: Endgame didn't have great legs. That alone is an interesting point of data I'm happy to know about. The fact that Star Wars: TFA for example had a way, way better multiplier and Avg Drop and that it, thus, ended up earning more money despite a 100M less opening weekend is incredibly interesting by itself. There are various points of argument you could extract from that alone. The fact that the average week drop is so much higher than other huge movies in the US like Black Panther, Hunger Games or Beauty and the Beast could indicate that Endgame failed to attract much new support over its running time for example. That people who wanted to watch it before release watched it and people who didn't want to watch it didn't watch it, while those other movies seemingly kept attracting new audiences who maybe weren't interested at launch thanks to word of mouth. Could this indicate that this is the absolute ceiling for the MCU right now? I don't know! But it's a possible point of discussion based, among other things, on this data.

Very well reasoned, that's a hell of a ceiling if endgame is the ceiling. I suspect it's now raised the floor of the rest of the MCU too.
 

Deleted member 5666

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,753
Why would he troll, chances are he wants that record as much as anyone. Russo's too probably.

I mean if you were in their position wouldn't you?
I think the confusion is more: Why not do an extended cut or something more notable. As well why no traditional marketing with now 3 days to go.

If you are going to re-release it...why not do something crazy? Like an extended cut with that cut out Kathrine Langford stuff with other deleted scenes.
 

Cpt-GargameL

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,024
I think the confusion is more: Why not do an extended cut or something more notable. As well why no traditional marketing with now 3 days to go.

If you are going to re-release it...why not do something crazy?
Agree. We've been echoing this. I believe I said "it's a lazy cash grab" lol and it's true. An actual extended cut would have made a dent this weekend but this won't, not as much as an extended cut would have.
 

Ichthyosaurus

Banned
Dec 26, 2018
9,375
I think the confusion is more: Why not do an extended cut or something more notable. As well why no traditional marketing with now 3 days to go.

If you are going to re-release it...why not do something crazy? Like an extended cut with that cut out Kathrine Langford stuff with other deleted scenes.

I don't know why Marvel refuses to do director's cuts or extended editions. That's money in the bank.
 

Deleted member 5666

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,753
Conspiracy theory: they aren't marketing it because they want people to be confused and think it's extended 🤔🤔🤔🤔
 

Heroicpiglet

Avenger
Dec 22, 2017
2,064
Source? Also, I was thinking myself 1 week along with SweetNicole I believe. It makes sense though if it's only 4 days and it seems that in those 4 days Endgame will be playing in Dolby at AMC. I just checked my AMC app and Toy Story 4 looks to be giving up Dolby this Friday as it only shows IMAX and Digital formats from 6/28 onwards. (Annabelle is only showing in IMAX/Digital)

If that's the case then it'll only be Fri, Sat, Sun, Mon and Dolby/IMAX go to FFH Tuesday.

With that said, it's definitely not passing AVATAR if this is indeed the case.
No official source but the plan is that Endgame will be showed on friday to monday and these screens will go to far from home on tuesday. This looks more like a marketing push for FFH than a push for the crown.
 

PanzerKraken

Member
Nov 1, 2017
14,985
So per Mana it looks like the 7 minutes post-credit extras are:

1 - Intro by the Russo's
2 - Deleted Hulk scene
3 - Cast tribute to Stan Lee
4 - Far From Home advertisement

Do they have to pay to send out new copies of the movie to the theaters? Distribution costs money so it seems like this would be a big expense to just add 7 minutes of material to a movie and mass distribute and any advertising related to it.
 

Cpt-GargameL

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,024
Do they have to pay to send out new copies of the movie to the theaters? Distribution costs money so it seems like this would be a big expense to just add 7 minutes of material to a movie and mass distribute and any advertising related to it.
It's a file. Very few use film nowadays.

For example, Nolan uses film.
 
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PanzerKraken

Member
Nov 1, 2017
14,985
Conspiracy theory:

It's a file. Very few use film nowadays.

For example, Nolan uses film.

This begs to question why the crazy focus folks have on the cost of P&A of films. If prints are just files now sent out, then how is the costs going so high? There must still be a cost for distribution of the movies, otherwise the whole term P&A would need to be changed.
 

PhoncipleBone

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,336
Kentucky, USA
This begs to question why the crazy focus folks have on the cost of P&A of films. If prints are just files now sent out, then how is the costs going so high? There must still be a cost for distribution of the movies, otherwise the whole term P&A would need to be changed.
They are shipped on hard drives a lot of the time I believe. I'm not sure.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
If I really cared about getting the record, I would do more than this.

I don't think Feige or the Russos have a Cameron-level ego that they need to satisfy.
Since when was a Cameron level ego needed to want your film to be number 1?

Most likely this release is a compromise. Disney likely wasn't willing to spend several million on marketing just to earn and few more million domestic so they pushed it in the cheapest manner possible knowing full well they'll earn plenty on the Blu-ray and streaming.
 

Schlorgan

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,932
Salt Lake City, Utah
Since when was a Cameron level ego needed to want your film to be number 1?

Most likely this release is a compromise. Disney likely wasn't willing to spend several million on marketing just to earn and few more million domestic so they pushed it in the cheapest manner possible knowing full well they'll earn plenty on the Blu-ray and streaming.
The problem is that it needs a lot more than a few million domestic to be #1. This thing is so tame that I can't see anyone involved expecting it to take the movie the rest of the way.
 

berzeli

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,384
This begs to question why the crazy focus folks have on the cost of P&A of films. If prints are just files now sent out, then how is the costs going so high? There must still be a cost for distribution of the movies, otherwise the whole term P&A would need to be changed.
Most major films are sent out via harddrives called Digital Cinema Package (DCP), sometimes these come with activation via the internet. Shipping is expensive, as in it's probably the major cost for this.
Technically the term P&A is already outdated since very few movies are actually released on film prints these days-
A manager I know at an AMC told me it's a file that gets unlocked.
Smaller stuff like intros, cast Q&A are frequently distro'd via internet either via files or even streamed.
I think The Orchard did full DCPs via the internet but they got sold off and are now 1091 Media so that's no longer readily available info. I also think it's Signiant that does this in scale but to exactly what extent and for whom I don't remember.

In general for indies a whole bunch of it goes via internet (especially for festivals) or USB drives, but since DCPs are in the 100s of gigabytes and there isn't 100% file compatibility (Adobe being the worst offender in that their "default" DCP setting is garbo) that is its own headache area.
 
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