Wkd Box Office - 6•7-6•9•19 - Disney uses third wish to grant X-Men their freedom, families ignore second helping of SLoP to save money for toys

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OrangeAtlas

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Oct 25, 2017
2,155
This is ResetEra's weekend box office thread. While the OP focuses on the popular weekend tallies, we typically discuss box office throughout the week as well when notable films are playing. New threads are posted each Sunday morning, between 8-10am PST.















Summer Sequelitis Scorches Franchises to B.O. Lows: ‘Secret Life of Pets 2’ $47M+, 'Dark Phoenix' Dead At $33M - Worst Debut Ever For 'X-Men' Movie

Here’s a trend: three franchise films in a row this summer —Godzilla: King of the Monsters, The Secret Life of Pets 2, and Dark Phoenixopened to roughly half of what their previous films did. And we may have a fourth title next weekend, if Men in Black International does half of MIB 3‘s $54.4M.

What does this say? In most cases, franchise fatigue: The previous film was fine, and there was never a reason to make another movie. That, or there was already a complete hatred unseen with the previous installment, and no one wanted to see another chapter in the franchise. But studio development executives sometimes suffer from not being able to see the forest for the trees, and become clouded by the twin delusions of grandeur: Chinese and overseas box office results, and/or not knowing when to put the brakes on sequels, as they could endanger a franchise altogether.

While Dark Phoenix will get singed more this weekend as being the final nail in the Fox/Marvel X-Men franchise, both commercially and story-wise (that is, until Disney/Marvel decides to resuscitate it), we can’t let Universal/Illumination’s The Secret Life of Pets 2 off the hook. Universal is reporting a 3-day of $47.1M for Pets 2, -55% from the original’s $104.3M opening. The first film scored the best domestic debut ever for an original piece of IP. With Fandango previews the running cume is $48M. Global running total is $97M and next week the sequel will push the Secret Life of Pets franchise to $1 billion worldwide next week.

Yes, yes, yes, Pets 2 was made at a responsible $80M production cost before P&A, according to Illumination standards, and film finance experts expect the sequel to turn a profit, as the pic will leg out from its great exits of an A- CinemaScore (same as first movie) and 4 1/2 stars (as of last night) from general audiences, parents and kids under 12. Unfortunately this wasn’t enough to push the film past the $50M mark, though Saturday at $17M was +4% over Friday’s $16.4M. Saturday was even more sinister to Dark Phoenix with a $10.8M gross, repping a 23% drop from Friday’s $14M, still the worst opening ever for an X-Men movie at $33Mper Disney. Worldwide Dark Phoenix is the No. 1 movie with $140M, $30M less than the $170M global projection our experts were seeing (much of that drop having to do with U.S./Canada). Also the global debut for Dark Phoenix is down from X-Men Days of Future Past ($262.9M) by -47% and Apocalypse ($166.6M) by 16% (unadjusted for inflation or currency exchanges). China at $45.6M is under the $50M-$60M projection, but +28% bigger than X-Men: Days of Future Past. Fox always knew they could count on the Middle Kingdom due to the traction of the second trailer there.

Poor, poor Dark Phoenix. On top of being the worst debut for an X-Men film, she’s also the worst reviewed at 22% Rotten and the worst received with a B- CinemaScore (lowest ever for the franchise) and ComScore/Screen Engine PostTrak’s of 3 stars among general audiences, 69% positive and a low 49% definite recommend. Despite having better exits than Dark Phoenix with an 81% positive and A- CinemaScore, moviegoers weren’t amused with technically the last PG-13 X-Men movie, Apocalypse, and they showed that with their wallets: 4-day projections of $100M dropped to $79.8M during its opening, and stateside, the film is the second-lowest grossing X-Men movie at $155.4M, with First Class being the lowest at $146.4M.

<Click on the Article Headline to read more>


DOMESTIC WEEKEND BOX OFFICE



*Click the chart to view the full source



WORLDWIDE BOX OFFICE UPDATES

Avengers: Endgame - $2.730B
Aladdin - $605M
Dark Phoenix - $140M
Detective Pikachu - $409M
John Wick 3 - $252M
Godzilla: King of the Monsters - $292M
The Secret Life of Pets 2 - $97M




Weekend Box Office Archive and Appendix

Thread Archive

Web links to box office resources

Explanation of Box Office Terms, Abbreviations, and Concepts
 
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gdt

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,341
Aladdin holding steady.

The rest must be a disappointment to everybody.


X-Men, it's time for a rest.
 

Kusagari

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,610
That X-Men opening is just...I don't think anyone could have predicted an opening that catastrophic .
 

Schlorgan

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,277
Bountiful, Utah
A $1m difference between Godzilla's second weekend and Rocketman's second weekend.

If you're a movie who isn't by Disney or doesn't have Keanu Reeves in it, you're not having a very good summer.
 

PhoncipleBone

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,857
Kentucky, USA
For Endgame $835m domestic is looking more likely. I would say just shy of $840m at best. IW's 8th weekend was $600k higher than Endgame's 7th, and IW made about $14m more after that. This will probably be in the $10-12m more range after that drop, and it is going to shed a lot more theaters in the next two weeks.

 

Cpt-GargameL

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,463
Just like KoTM, I also enjoyed Dark Phoenix and they're both bombs lol

Hopefully WB does right as mentioned yesterday about them pushing the release and taking their time to make it a better movie for everyone.

I trust Disney/Marvel will use their MCU formula to make X-Men great again.
 

jon bones

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,708
NYC
a fitting end for the franchise. it will take a few years til audiences are ready for more, but between Hickman's run and Marvel Studio's excellent hype train it will be a Big Moment when they return in like 2024
 

Tace

Avenger
Nov 1, 2017
2,949
X-men did worse than expected, and that’s saying something. Jeez. I felt bad at first but then realized they fucked up The Dark Phoenix saga twice. I’ll never get why they decided to go for Kinberg again
 

Guzim

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,268
John Wick Chapter 3 has now made more money than Detective Pikachu in the US. Can’t wait for Chapter 4! Also, Rocketman was really good, glad to see it’s still in the top 5.
 

mreddie

Member
Oct 26, 2017
10,442
Summer is ruthless. Disney basically owns this summer. Oh it andd Ma made its budget back.
 

Cpt-GargameL

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,463
For Endgame $835m domestic is looking more likely. I would say just shy of $840m at best. IW's 8th weekend was $600k higher than Endgame's 7th, and IW made about $14m more after that. This will probably be in the $10-12m more range after that drop, and it is going to shed a lot more theaters in the next two weeks.

Get out of here with that logic!

I agree. I estimated $840m-$850 and I now think it'll actually do on the lower end of that, probably $845 ceiling with that FFH bump 😉
 

CaviarMeths

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
6,616
Western Canada
In the DP vs KotM avatar bet thread, I made a joke prediction that Dark Phoenix would drop from Apocalypse at the same ratio that Fantastic Four (2015) dropped from Rise of the Silver Surfer, which would be $90m dom / $314m WW.

That may have been optimistic...
 

EN1GMA

Avenger
Nov 7, 2017
1,536
Even Illumination couldn't work their magic this time.

TS4 about to blow Detective Pikachu entire DOM run out of the water in its OW.
 

Simba

User requested ban
Banned
Nov 25, 2017
718
Go see Rocketman.

Seriously, it is everything Bohemian Rhapsody should have been and then some. I’m stanning for Taron Egerton to at least get an oscar nom.
 

2Bee

or not 2B
Moderator
Oct 27, 2017
5,281
And here I thought a low 40s opening would be catastrophic for Dark Phoenix.
 

Ignatz Mouse

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,666
Rest in peace (AGAIN), Jean.

I haven't seen the movie and don't know if she dies, so that's not a spoiler, but this whole universe is over.
 

KillstealWolf

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
4,232
Endgame sapped the box office totals of all it's rivals and it still can't touch Avatar.



Aladdin carries on it's march with quite good holds. I don't think a billion is happening. But 700 is possible, wouldn't even rule out 800.

I for one am glad Illumination is down-trending at long last. SLOP 2 is still going to be profitable but I don't want to be the marketing head that explains why it opened to less than half the original did.

Maybe people don't realise this, but this film had the second largest opening ever at 4,561 Cinemas! The only film to have more screens is Avengers: Endgame. Someone at Universal was expecting big numbers for this film and by sure it didn't get it.

Maybe they now have to make better than 6/10 movies to reach those near billion numbers they were making a few years back. That or they are going to double down on the Minions. I guess we'll wait and see.

And for Dark Phoenix, well, this sums it up.


Edit: Now in GIF Form.

 
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Cpt-GargameL

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,463
So I don't wanna create a new thread for this but Phoenix>Captain Marvel in a fight correct? And it ain't even close based on my assumptions.
 

Bus-TEE

Member
Nov 20, 2017
1,793
Even as someone who had been predicting a sub $100m gross for Dark Phoenix in North America for months I'm shocked by that shitty three day number.

I wouldn't be surprised if it adjusted down a little lower than that.

Though it does paint Godzilla KOTM and PDP's soft openings in a new light.
 

berzeli

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,128
That's a really good opening for Late Night... but Deadline did say that amazon four walled some cinemas. So the question is if it would have done as well without that.

Last Black Man in San Francisco also did decently.

Echo in the Canyon, and Biggest Little Farm proves that documentaries continue to be a hot ticket... especially if I had never heard of them before they opened.

Also SLOP2 and Dark Phoenix flopping means that the field is wide open for MIB next week... can't wait for it to still not do anything with that.
 

Ignatz Mouse

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,666
My early poo-pooing of Detective Pikachu will go down as one of the only times I was right in a BO thread.

I'd say predicting Dark Pheonix to be a bomb would count, but tons of people thought that.

I guess I can be counted on to predict movies with the initials "DP" to fail.
 
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