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WSJ: Nintendo to Launch Two New Switch Models. Premium "Enhanced" Model and Cheaper Portable Model.
- Thread starter JehutyRunner
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"held back" is a translation, quoting it doesn't mean exactly that, it just means that it is further out. like I said it's possible, but without a project lead, it's not likely that this product was ever coming out this year. Maybe next Spring? but if it's release is any further out than Spring, they should hold off until 2021 and release the "Pro2" I'm talking about in that post instead.
Again, maybe it had project lead but plans were changed so currently is without project lead, point is that we dont know and that we can just speculate,
that why all options are still on table.
And like I wrote, its very strange if Nikke reports only about low price point model and this supposed 3rd version that will not be released soon and not mentioning at all "New" Switch that was supposed to be released this FY that both WSJ and Eurogamer reported about.
Yeah, between that and the HAC-001 code on the back, it definitely seems like a fake. A fake which looks a lot like what I'd expect a portable-only Switch model from Nintendo to look like, but a fake nonetheless.
On a separate note, TSMC just released their Q1 2019 results, and one interesting bit is that they've actually released specific figures on the 20nm process (previously they had been bundling it in with the 16nm processes). The 20nm process accounted for just 1% of their revenue, down from 4% in Q1 2018. Apple's discontinuation of the iPhone 6 is likely the main driver behind this, but it shows how much the industry has moved away from 20nm. Even if a new model with a new SoC is coming in the next couple of months, the TX1 still would have been in production in Q1, so there's a good chance that the Switch accounts for the majority of that 20nm production at this stage.
If the Nikkei article is accurate and nothing is launching until the Fall at the earliest I don't think we're going to hear about it until August-September or so.
We will get an idea next week when they give us their sales goal for this FY at the least.
Yeah 20nm is gone, it's still possible that they launch both new models with the same new SoC on 12nm.
Nikkei's report was very confusing to say the least, but I am not saying it's not the Pro they are reporting on, I'm saying it's probably not the pro they are reporting on... If it is the Pro they are talking about "held back" doesn't mean much at all, if it was planned this year, it could still be this FY. What I push back on here is the "Next Gen" Switch, how it's a whole new gen, I mean Nintendo could be launching a 7nm Switch this year, but that isn't inside my expectations.
Some of the better translations also said "It's not clear who will lead the creation of concept" instead of just project lead, which is also part of the reason I think it's the next gen device and not a midgen refresh.
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I dont see this as a problem especially since you will like still be able to connect any joycons you already have (or pro controller) wirelessly
Though I wonder if the Mini will still have a kickstand
To extend this with some extremely rough estimates, TSMC shipped about 2.2 million 12-inch equivalent wafers in Q1 2019. They don't detail how many wafers they shipped on each process, just the revenue share, but we can safely say that 20nm wafers are more expensive than the average wafer they ship, as two-thirds of their revenue (and therefore more than two-thirds of their wafers, as they're lower-revenue per wafer) are on 28nm or larger processes. Let's just say that 20nm wafers are twice the cost of the average wafer they ship (which is probably an underestimate, but it's a simple, round number), and we could estimate that they shipped around 11,000 12-inch 20nm wafers in Q1 2019.
Now, for Nintendo let's just make a simplied assumption that they're ordering 5 million TX1's per quarter (based on their 20m annual target). The TX1 is 121mm2 in size, and a 12-inch wafer is about 73,000mm2, and accounting for packing (as you can't perfectly fit square dies on a circular wafer) and non-perfect yields, we can make a rough estimate of about 500 good dies per wafer. So, for 5 million Switch's a quarter, Nintendo would need about 10,000 12-inch wafers, which is very close to the estimate for how many 20nm wafers TSMC are producing.
Of course I've made a whole load of assumptions in there (most notably the cost of 20nm wafers, which I have no way of knowing), but it does look like there's a good chance Nintendo account for the considerably majority of TSMC's 20nm production at this stage.
It was already heavily debated in here because it limits out-of-the-box (!) compatibility with some kid/family-oriented titles (mainly Super Mario Party & 1-2-Switch).
Some fear customer confusion (parents buy kid NSW mini/lite, kid cannot play those titles with family/parents), others said it is a personal device and thus does not need out-of-the-box compatibility with those titles (solution would be joy-con-bundles for titles that need them).
So, no, I would say it was not universally accepted, but maybe expected by the majority? I hope we do not have to discuss the topic again, it was running in circles.
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It's probably safer to assume they ordered 4M, so ~8000 waffers still it's 70% to 80% they are definitely being pushed off the node.
The picture of the front view confirms that It's also written backwards, which is pretty odd whatever it is.
Kimishima once said he, Miyamoto and Iwata decided on the current Switch business model and the launch was followed as they planned, it wasn't after Iwata's death
Yeah, "Kimishima changed Switch plans because he didn't like it" doesn't make any sense.
He became president of Nintendo in September 2015, Switch was unveiled in its final form a year later. That's not enough time to make drastic changes.
He became president of Nintendo in September 2015, Switch was unveiled in its final form a year later. That's not enough time to make drastic changes.
Well if they had to move from 20nm and develop a new chip for the Lite, it's pretty safe to assume they would replace also the original model's hardware. It might still have the same form factor or even the same exact appearance, but it will have some significant changes either in performance or in battery life. I don't see them skipping the occasion to do even a slight redesign and market it as a New Switch.
Perhaps the confusion of the reports comes from this, it's not really a Pro version but a replacement of the current model, enhanced only because they had to move to the a new hardware node.
The "real" Pro or Switch 2 is still in the design process and likely years to come.
Possibly also in cost of manufacture. Not so much for the SoC itself, but by being able to go to a smaller battery in the same form factor.
If true, it may make it reasonable to crack open a Switch and replace the factory battery with a larger one.
The hybrid system was part of the design since late 2014, early 2015. It was reported by the WSJ in spring 2015 that not only had people seen the Nintendo NX demos that couldn't be run on anything less than the most powerful gaming pcs of the day, but that there was a console with a handheld component that could be used in conjunction with the console or used separately.
Thing is most of that paragraph was sourced by public reports, Nintendo employees in private and various insiders. I did mention that Kimishima decided to launch the hybrid model first and that the console was scrapped at that time was my speculation. I do know that sometime in 2015, the console component of the NX stopped development... It's also possible that the console was going to use a GTX 1060 and that that was what the Foxconn leak that talked about another device with a 200mm^2 die connected to another 100mm^2 die was about, the die he said was 12mm x 18mm which is the dimensions of the gtx 1060 as Thraktor had pointed out at the time.
What I know for a fact is that the NX console did exist in 2015 and that it no longer did at the beginning of 2016, if it was Iwata who closed development on the console, he did it between April and July, absolutely possible, but because of Kimishima's history of having a different business sense than Iwata, it does make sense that they launched with the hybrid model on his opinion that it would confuse consumers if they launched with both models, or simply they couldn't get the switch price down far enough to make it a handheld so they had to sell it as a console, I don't know the reason, just what I laid out.
My understanding on the initial report was that the switch had industry leading chips.
For 2017 mobile device, I'd say the switch fits that description.
Not entirely sure what Foxxcon would know about a switch system that was cancelled.
Might make more sense that these reports were misinterpreted and/or in accurate.
I doubt the future Switch doesn't have a project lead. Nikkei's sources don't know who the project lead is, that doesn't mean there isn't one.
That initial report as I linked in the post talked specifically about a console with a component that docked and could be removed to play games with the system or on its own away from the system.
The Foxconn leak is accurate, it's actually someone who worked there, measured a bunch of stuff and gave us a ton of accurate information, literally dozens of accurate separate pieces of info, from battery sizes, weigh of the unit and the Joycons separately, the Joycons having SL and SR buttons (first to report those names) and other crazy things we wouldn't know until later like the size and shape of the heat pipe, all before the switch was officially announced.
He also said there was a separate device with that specific die size. Why would it exist? Foxconn probably made the devkits for it, that's probably what it was, but that's my speculation. At this point we probably won't ever get more concrete info about these things, plans changed 4 years ago, so this is irrelevant now. Nintendo might bring back the console form factor to the Switch ecosystem, and if they want to address 4k gaming, they will need that form factor.
Not to say these people are wrong in any sense. Didn't WiiU have similar rumors about high end specs prior to launch? It maybe that Nintendo and I know this for a fact changes their mind so much.
Surprised no one posted the front facing picture of that Switch Mini leak
No, Wii U had a 2008 GPU powering a devkit that overheated, we never knew the clock of the GPU, we just knew that the GPU in the devkits could be clocked high enough to reach 1TFLOPs. They didn't change their mind during the Wii U development, it ended up using a 2008 GPU just as we thought, just much weaker than we had HOPED and some leakers had falsely reported, including a Nintendo employee who I later found out what he did at Nintendo and had no actual idea of the device.
Surprised no one posted the front facing picture of that Switch Mini leak
That would be a gorgeous device. I'm hoping this is how it will look, even if that leak turns out fake. If the performance is at least as good and still docks, I might have to get it. Detachable joycons really hasn't done anything for me thus far. I've never used table top mode, so this could be right up my alley.
Great, now I want the Switch Mini. You did an amazing job with the mock up! The colors looks so amazing, I just want to keep that thing in my pocket 24/7.Nice, I was just making a mock up actually so I'll have to go and make a few alterations.
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5.8 inch screen on mine, looks about right.
I really like this, if it look like your mock up i think im going buy itNice, I was just making a mock up actually so I'll have to go and make a few alterations.
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5.8 inch screen on mine, looks about right.
WSJ says that both are coming this year. I'm assuming that it means that the "Pro" is just a Lite with more features rather than a significant performance bump
Yeah, both reports talk of a mini and a more powerfull Switch. But the second report says the more powerful unit is the next gen Switch which is is some time away. Could the WSJ have been confused about the Pro , ie is it really the next gen and not coming out this year like the mini. I guess that's the question I'm asking myself
I don't think they could confuse "system coming out this year" with "system that doesn't have a known lead yet". those are pretty far from each other
Is that consider "kid proof" though? That part is confusing me.
I agree, I only mean that the replacement to the OG (which people refer to as the pro) won't happen this year at the same time as the lite but next year so that it's easier to market without confusion between the models as the pro will have better performance than the lite (which will probably have the same performance as the OG switch). The change it's chips and any other improvements will go across the board but with a staggered release.
If they are sitting on enough X1s or they managed to keep up the old production line at a bargain price I can see that to be a case.
At the same time, if they are firing up production of a new chipset it would be better to ramp up volumes as soon as possible and I'd imagine putting all their eggs in one basket makes more sense logistically and economically speaking.
I would bet on them launching Lite and maaaybe a small cost-cut on the original switch in summer, then replacing the original model with the "pro" in time for the holidays. Small redesign, new colors, improved battery life and/or improved undocked performance and it will sell as hotcakes!
Nice, I was just making a mock up actually so I'll have to go and make a few alterations.
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5.8 inch screen on mine, looks about right.
Nice work. Really good mock up.
This, with 64GB ROM for U$199,90 would sell gangbusters.
I think that a cheap model this year to benefit from animal crossing/Pokemon "casual" crowd then a "Pro" model next year for bayo 3/maybe Monster Hunter (I sure hope there will be one but who knows) is what makes the most sense financially.
I hope the "pro" will be something comparable to the new 3ds jump.
I hope the "pro" will be something comparable to the new 3ds jump.
I think it's near universally accepted but they acknowledge some extra work that'll need to go into those titles.
I don't think 1-2 Switch matters...like, at all.
Mario Party and it's sequels will, tho.
Simple solution would be to bundle Mario Party with some joy con.
Perhaps lower the price of them too, dunno
It all comes down to the marketing and I bet there will be a title in the works (maybe Nintendoland 2?) which features asynchronous multiplayer gameplay, with as many players as have switches / switch minis. They can advertise the switch mini as a asynchronous controller for the switch platform in the first 15 secs and then, oh wait! It's it's own personal thing on the go too!
Oh imagine this! Kid on the buss designing a MM2 level. Gets home. And plays it with his dad in multiplayer mode but they don't have to be on the same screen cause they each have their own. Dad on tv with the Switch Pro and kid still holding his mini.
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