I don't think Microsoft will be too concerned about the optics. They stacked the Xbox One launch lineup as best they could and it didn't really do them any favors. Both the PS4 (no serious AAA exclusive) and the Switch (only Zelda) have shown you can have a successful launch without a ton of first-party content.Yeah I get that. And long term that's obviously the best thing to have a drip feed of games. But I think launch is a special case, especially with first party. If you're not able to release it at launch, then hold it back 3 or 4 months. It just looks weird only a month or two after.
The value proposition of getting something new every month is far more intriguing to me. Third-party stuff will dominate launch day anyway.