I mean, your argument about Xbox missing the mark previously with Japanese developers and giving up is not really valid, because it's clearly a different Xbox than where the brand was at that time. Microsoft clearly has a ton of work to do to build those relationships, but that's partially why they're laying the groundwork with an Xbox office in Japan and acquiring a Japanese studio(s). I don't think that Microsoft is going to even try to capture the Japanese market, with the Japanese studio(s) that it acquires, that's clearly an unattainable dream at the moment. It's primary focus is on the western market and people in the western market want Japanese games.
There would be very little benefit to Microsoft putting XGS-developed Japanese games on the Switch. Japanese developers are skipping Xbox because games don't sell well there and they don't think it's worth the effort. It's not going to increase third-party Japanese support, because all it's going to do is highlight how well those games sell on Switch, and via direct comparison, how poorly they sell on Xbox. If they want to go completely third-party and put their games everywhere, then they could absolutely do that, but using internal resources to put your game on another platform that is only going to highlight your shortcomings seems unwise at this time.
It's a process. Phil was never going to be able to storm into Japan with a checkbook and fly back to Redmond with a cargo plane full of exclusives and an overflowing Rolodex. However, showing a commitment to Japanese games over time by making those games available on your platform whenever possible (by assisting with development if necessary and giving those games exposure) and committing to creating your own Japanese games will allow Xbox to grow that portion of the brand.
And making those games available on a platform people in said country actually play on will help it grow a lot faster imo, and doesn't go against the team at Xbox making a commitment to Japanese games. Cuphead was wildly successful on the switch and was wildly successful on Xbox, no cares who sold more, all that matters is that both groups got a damn good game.
As for me using the past for my viewpoints, the past is all I have to go on since there has been no recent attempts until we started hearing rumblings of them going for an eastern based studio. Yeah, Xbox is in a different place now, but that doesn't change the reality of when a Japanese game does release on the platform, it's normally always the bottom in terms of sales and playerbase because again, most of the audience for said games is not on the platform, and they aren't going to run out and grab a Xbox just cause an exclusive or two when the default platform for these games gets exclusives without paying for anything. How many games drop on Switch & PS4 (and now PC!) that have no deals for being exclusive, yet never even have a chance of getting an Xbox port despite porting being easier than ever?
As long as that's the case, then Xbox will never be the default platform for those types of games and will always be a third or second at best console purchase if they bother getting it at all, so instead of trying to fight that battle again, why not let people who already own those platforms invest in the ecosystem in a way that benefits everyone?
-Xbox players get Japanese first party games that might actually live long enough to get a follow up
-Microsoft gets more software sales from first party and more sweet sweet MAU's
-Japanese gamers and a large majority of fans of those types of games get access to game they probably would have forgotten about the second "exclusive" popped up on the screen.
- and maybe, just maybe, this leads to a day where people are looking forward to MS's presence in the east instead of scoffing at the very idea [what's a Xbox gif goes here].
Everything you mentioned as a reason to stay exclusive would only go faster and be much more profitable if it wasn't. And just like you mention now more than ever MS and the team at Xbox are in a different place than before, that's exactly why I think it's a possibility that shouldn't be so quickly hand waived.
Game Pass, xCloud, Xbox and PC userbase is more thsn enough to support a First Party Japanese studio.
I agree PC support is a good compromise as there is quite a large audience of people willing to support those types of games on the platform already, but I don't know about xCloud and Gamepass. Not because they arent great ideas, but because at this moment one hasnt released properly so I'm unsure how to gauge it and I'm not sure how much the success of Gamepass would transfer over to fans of those types of games and Japan as a whole when they already own a platform that's gonna get 10x the amount by just existing.
You still think of a console to access Microsoft games, Japan may not sell well for Xbox consoles but in the xCloud service the game will do well.
This has yet to be seen. It could very well be a gamechanger, but it also might make no difference at all and at this point im not in a position to make that call cause its not out yet.