Let's get one thing clear: people like us on Era are almost completely useless in deciding the result of an election. And the same goes for our equivalent on the right.
People who are interested in politics usually have a very precise idea of which side they're gonna vote, and it changes very rarely.
The ones who decide the result are all the rest: people who usually are NOT interested in politics or have a vague interest, but not strong personal values which can make them opt for one side in a consistant way.
One common mistake is thinking that these people are centrists, that they are scared of parties which strongly veer in one direction.
This is the reason why you always hear about "electability" from centrists people like Biden.
This is completely wrong.
And it's not a problem concerning only the left. I clearly remember that, after the double debacle against Obama, american right-wing strategists concluded that the party should move somewhat to center to return to power, opening up to minorities to get their vote.
Trump was considered completely un-electable even by them, not only because he was a buffoon, but because he was clearly too far right to reach enough people. We all know they were completely wrong.
The point is: there are LOTS of people who wouldn't care less for right and left, far right or far left. Most of them are either too lazy, too uneducated or too busy to inform themselves about politics and politicians.
What they want/need is simplicity. A easy to understand message. It does NOT matter if it's extremely right or left, if it's true or 100% propaganda.
Also, they don't care if the party leader is a scholar or an ignorant, a benefactor or an asshole, if they have charisma it's perfect.
The most common, strong and easy to use message is CHANGE. It barely matters what kind of change.
The average person is deeply unsatisfied by their life, they want the illusion that they can change it. When a politician says to them "you can change it very easily, you just have to vote for me", it's enough for them.
And this is why we will never reach a world where the right or the left will prevail forever. Alternance is inevitable because it's in the human nature to be unsatisfied in the long term, to search for something different or "new" (the far right has an advantage because it has been dormant for decades and people have a very short memory).
Another strong part of the message is the SCAPEGOAT. It doesn't matter if, when you look closely, it doesn't make sense.
Most people don't want to look close, they need a scapegoat, a "monster", they need an easy target. Jews, homosexuals, immigrants, foreign countries, you name it. It has to be something the people can easily see in a way or another, but not too close to them, otherwise they'll realize it's bullshit.
Let's look at the UK elections. Brexit is a very strong message.
Brexit is easy to understand: the EU is the cause of every problem (scapegoat), we need to leave (change).
Does it matter that almost nobody (including the politicians) know what actually Brexit means? No, Brexit is a magic word, is a dream. It's like religion: it just feel good, you don't have to study, to investigate what it means.
The harder the Brexit, the stronger the message, this is why Farage and Johnson succedeed (and while May with her "weak" deal lost).
And what message did the left have? Could they be weaker? They wouldn't even commit to brexit or no-brexit (tough to be fair, even if their message was a clear "no brexit", it would have been a weaker message, people don't want to hear "let's remain like this", it's the opposite of change).
Trump is the same. His MAGA is genious and successful because it contains a mixture of scapegoat, change and the nostalgia of good old times (which probably weren't good, but it doesn't matter, nostalgia doesn't make sense most of the time).
Now I cannot offer a simple recipe for the left (worldwide left) to suddenly turn the table in the short term (who knows, maybe we'll need to see the repeat of the Nazi shit in order for the pendulum to swing back). The right will probably always have an advantage in spreading their message because the fear/hate for the "other" is a deep part of the human nature.
But what I think is that being afraid to go for strong ideas on the left and court the center instead is a big mistake.
The center, the compromise is a very weak message when the other side is literally shouting their shit from the roofs.
You look unsure, you look un-charismatic, you may look safe, but you also look weak, you do not INSPIRE people.
Maybe it could be the answer in another time, not right now, not with the power the far-right has now.
But strong ideas on the left are not nearly enough. They need to learn to COMUNICATE them.
The Message. It's sad, but this is what gives you the victory, not the ideas.
PS: When I said that our vote is "useless" doesn't mean that we don't have to go to vote. We MUST vote, in order to balance our equivalents on the right.
What I meant is that our vote is like a constant. It is necessary to reach the result, but ultimately is all in the hands of others.
People who are interested in politics usually have a very precise idea of which side they're gonna vote, and it changes very rarely.
The ones who decide the result are all the rest: people who usually are NOT interested in politics or have a vague interest, but not strong personal values which can make them opt for one side in a consistant way.
One common mistake is thinking that these people are centrists, that they are scared of parties which strongly veer in one direction.
This is the reason why you always hear about "electability" from centrists people like Biden.
This is completely wrong.
And it's not a problem concerning only the left. I clearly remember that, after the double debacle against Obama, american right-wing strategists concluded that the party should move somewhat to center to return to power, opening up to minorities to get their vote.
Trump was considered completely un-electable even by them, not only because he was a buffoon, but because he was clearly too far right to reach enough people. We all know they were completely wrong.
The point is: there are LOTS of people who wouldn't care less for right and left, far right or far left. Most of them are either too lazy, too uneducated or too busy to inform themselves about politics and politicians.
What they want/need is simplicity. A easy to understand message. It does NOT matter if it's extremely right or left, if it's true or 100% propaganda.
Also, they don't care if the party leader is a scholar or an ignorant, a benefactor or an asshole, if they have charisma it's perfect.
The most common, strong and easy to use message is CHANGE. It barely matters what kind of change.
The average person is deeply unsatisfied by their life, they want the illusion that they can change it. When a politician says to them "you can change it very easily, you just have to vote for me", it's enough for them.
And this is why we will never reach a world where the right or the left will prevail forever. Alternance is inevitable because it's in the human nature to be unsatisfied in the long term, to search for something different or "new" (the far right has an advantage because it has been dormant for decades and people have a very short memory).
Another strong part of the message is the SCAPEGOAT. It doesn't matter if, when you look closely, it doesn't make sense.
Most people don't want to look close, they need a scapegoat, a "monster", they need an easy target. Jews, homosexuals, immigrants, foreign countries, you name it. It has to be something the people can easily see in a way or another, but not too close to them, otherwise they'll realize it's bullshit.
Let's look at the UK elections. Brexit is a very strong message.
Brexit is easy to understand: the EU is the cause of every problem (scapegoat), we need to leave (change).
Does it matter that almost nobody (including the politicians) know what actually Brexit means? No, Brexit is a magic word, is a dream. It's like religion: it just feel good, you don't have to study, to investigate what it means.
The harder the Brexit, the stronger the message, this is why Farage and Johnson succedeed (and while May with her "weak" deal lost).
And what message did the left have? Could they be weaker? They wouldn't even commit to brexit or no-brexit (tough to be fair, even if their message was a clear "no brexit", it would have been a weaker message, people don't want to hear "let's remain like this", it's the opposite of change).
Trump is the same. His MAGA is genious and successful because it contains a mixture of scapegoat, change and the nostalgia of good old times (which probably weren't good, but it doesn't matter, nostalgia doesn't make sense most of the time).
Now I cannot offer a simple recipe for the left (worldwide left) to suddenly turn the table in the short term (who knows, maybe we'll need to see the repeat of the Nazi shit in order for the pendulum to swing back). The right will probably always have an advantage in spreading their message because the fear/hate for the "other" is a deep part of the human nature.
But what I think is that being afraid to go for strong ideas on the left and court the center instead is a big mistake.
The center, the compromise is a very weak message when the other side is literally shouting their shit from the roofs.
You look unsure, you look un-charismatic, you may look safe, but you also look weak, you do not INSPIRE people.
Maybe it could be the answer in another time, not right now, not with the power the far-right has now.
But strong ideas on the left are not nearly enough. They need to learn to COMUNICATE them.
The Message. It's sad, but this is what gives you the victory, not the ideas.
PS: When I said that our vote is "useless" doesn't mean that we don't have to go to vote. We MUST vote, in order to balance our equivalents on the right.
What I meant is that our vote is like a constant. It is necessary to reach the result, but ultimately is all in the hands of others.
