It's kind of odd that even if it was a genuine accident and he thought he put it through and accidently hammered, that he wouldn't even come back in the next hour to check the result.
I'm currently out with friends, sorry nin.Don't tell me that i am now the only one with sleep issues ? No one around anymore?
Effin bad situation made worse by my weird way of paying. I agree in hindsight with sneeks that scum!febe would have easily been able to push back against me.....
Welcome to Nightless Mafia!
You are a Citizen, Aligned with the Sun Sons.
If you are voted out on the first day, you may take someone else down with you.
You win when you manage to eliminate every single member of the Mafia.
You're not helping the WIFOM by continuing to say itfuck well ok sure flip me so you can move on with the game. Look at Alexem/Donnie. Maybe sneeks? idk anymore
I'll say, I don't think my scum self would have hammered then, maybe I'd have ridden the town goodwill from my hypothetical feigned hesitance a bit more. I understand this is all WIFOM though it's fine.
lol can it be helped?
Means no scum was on chuggs though so...gotta be bussers I think?
if nin is town i don't know where to go exactly but i dont think i'd go back to fireblend.
If we let scum!febe go because of nin's missvote I'm gonna throw my hands in the air.
Oh yeah lol. Don't ask me to remember things when tipsy.
Bother me again if I end up going febe instead of this nonsenseI kind of hate these. Feels like Neeks is setting up to go back to FeBe after claiming she wouldn't.
Oh yeah lol. Don't ask me to remember things when tipsy.
So unless Alexem and febe are scum then at least one of em bussed zipped. Question is when/would they. Seeing as febe is going back to Alexem and Alexem kept pushing febe it's unlikely they are teamed, so it means a bus.
I just have trouble seeing a scum Donnie vote zipped where he does. It just doesn't make much sense. Out of the two I would go for Alex just because of where he was sitting and his defense of zipped.I don't know if I would rule out Alex and FeBe being teamed because you kind of have to bus here if they're scum, but I agree someone is probably busing. My knee jerk answer is Donnie, but let me take a look at Alex and Donnie again, and see where I end up
I'll be interested to see if Febe keeps his vote on me. If I were to be voted out, then going by the votes for Hedin, my town flip would probably bring a lot more heat on him. I think that'd be a considerable risk for scum!Febe to take. That's not to say it's not possible for Febe to be scum - it could be a vote placed in the expectation that it won't gain traction - but I feel a little better about him for having placed that vote.
I'm OK with either option at the moment. I think there could be a reasonable chance of hitting scum either way, and if not, I think they could yield information from their votes and connections.
Maybe not the popular option, but at this point I'm moving to Febe.
VOTE: Fireblend
We've had Donnie vs. Febe today, now it's Nin versus Febe. Since Febe's the common factor between the two, he feels like the more informative flip to me. I might be right, I might be wrong, but that's how I feel at the moment.
I guess it's the Nin mention that's tripping me up. I've been swirling this around:
"Ppl have been throwing out light-to-moderate scum reads on donnie today and would not be unsurprising if scum is setting up for some town cred after such a flip. Not going in too heavy but hinting that they feel something is off. nin in particular has kinda poked at donnie."
Let's look at the scenario that I flip and come up scum: Scum's posited plan here at 6-2 isn't to try change any of this perception, it's to actively lean into it, throw shade at me but only from a moderate distance, and go into day 4 6-1? And specifically not bus themselves through voting on me, they would sit by the way side and the group will give out town cred to….Nin? Not Alexem. nor Febe or anyone else actively voting on me. It'll go to Nin who is "poking me".
Imo the idea scum would play any sort of strategy rn that involves going 6-1 and hoping they get town cred off to the side of a field of players is slightly bizarre and it feels like a specific lay up towards Nin built in. Given that there were clearly more logical folks to roll off of me onto when I turn up town, this does not feel like town looking to protect town in the slightest, it feels like an attempt by scum to aim at what I assume look like easy gets and whittle the numbers.
That's fair.
Why assume that? You believe they'd want to take advantage of thisnsurprise death and steer the conversation or be here simply to gloat?
ok. out of curiosity say u find ur self voted out and you sought vengeance who would it be on?**
i would pull the trigger on fds personally but that's just me.
**please note this is a town only question scum need not apply.
I don't understand this. How does anyone benefit needlessly dragging things out? If anything I think dragging it out helps scum, they can just sit back and just wait for town to get antsy.
Can't say I agree there. Town doesn't get more information to work with, so we'll just keep re-arranging the wine goblets over and over again, while it buys scum more time to strategise.
I just have trouble seeing a scum Donnie vote zipped where he does. It just doesn't make much sense. Out of the two I would go for Alex just because of where he was sitting and his defense of zipped.
At the moment I've come to the conclusion that the two scum have to be somewhere in Donnie, Alex, and fire.
This would be melon or HP, possibly Donnie as well but I think his backtracking of the vote takes him out of that possibility.
My hope was in the next day phase we might look at Nin closer, I have Nin and then Melon next on the risk assessment and I feel like a flip between them might alleviate the concerns I've had about some of my Sneeks analysis. Nin has made way worse calls but is very obvious. I could Melon as the potential hidden third scum bussing around.
Hedin said he wouldn't shoot anyone when asked, didn't he? Both sneeks and me tried to dissuade him.Unless they thought Hedin was going to use the vengeful on Zipped I guess
Hedin said he wouldn't shoot anyone when asked, didn't he? Both sneeks and me tried to dissuade him.
Assuming they're scum, they'd have probably had the optics of doing so in mind. Donnie's been called into question for his hammers and nin got whacked for his attempted one, so even on D1 it's not hard to think that scum might have been worried about the consequences.I just don't understand why a scum HP and scum Melon would not find a way to vote for Hedin when they had a chance. He was one away from turbo for a long time, they both were around, and they just didn't do anything with it.
Not entirely:Hedin said he wouldn't shoot anyone when asked, didn't he? Both sneeks and me tried to dissuade him.
"I'm not taking D1 vig shot unless I'm absolutely sure." If that's anything to go by, he'd have taken the shot if he was certain enough about his target.Yes Zipped is my strongest scum read and he hasn't really contributed anything to change my mind. That said I'm not taking D1 vig shot unless I'm absolutely sure. Partly it's a lesson from last game and partly I don't think it gives town the best chance to win.
Hedin said he wouldn't shoot anyone when asked, didn't he? Both sneeks and me tried to dissuade him.
thats a boring answer. you clearly feel good about zipped but will let him live?
Boring. But I'm curious. Would anyone else not take the shot if they were the first lunched town?
i say fuck the math and shoot who you want to hit and just go for it.
Assuming they're scum, they'd have probably had the optics of doing so in mind. Donnie's been called into question for his hammers and nin got whacked for his attempted one, so even on D1 it's not hard to think that scum might have been worried about the consequences.
dissuade him from not shooting
I do want to say that this is a pretty good case. When I have a chance I'm going to actually sit down and look at the votes when zipped vote for melon because that's the one thing that's throwing me off. The fact that zipped took sparks position and use that for a vote still feels like something a desperate scum would do and not one a scum would do to get shade on a teammate. Because in my brain it was way too early for that but I could be wrong.VOTE: melonrabbit
So I had this wrote up yesterday a little while after I asked for any traction on the Donnie train to hold while I ate dinner. I tried to take all my votes on the chin yesterday and while I didn't agree with them, I understand Febe and Alexem gunning for me. If you were on the Hedin train at the end and town, I'm probably a good candidate, it feels possible and probable here was a scum on there at some point so fine. Melon's vote on me came from an entirely off angle though:
Well, Nin came along and nuked himself and that's unfortunate but having a town confirmation on Nin makes me feel even stronger that Melon was attempting to work an idea that would domino myself then Nin and clear off someone who voted for them. The Febe vote seemed like nothing based on the maths meme and busy work to see what happened on the playing field.
This would seem a bit OMGUS-y if that's all I could find but if I go through day one there's no real end to issues that crop up now we know multiple alignments:
Opens the game giving Zipp a platform to push his angle, before spending most of day one insisting voting for Zipp is sus. Zipped places a half hearted vote on Melon "with RNG" which would have been a straight lie as scum, it seems clear his job was to derail Chugg's point again him, so the Melon vote was a bus.
Jumped in to try and prod holes in my own vote at Zipped: It might be a bit much to focus on my own posts lol but worth mentioning because during Nin's opeing roast on me for voting Zipped, she steps in to egg him on; weird that she supported the kind of behaviour she's so sus on later. Anyway.
Melon introduces the question of the vengeance kill early and immediately antagonises Sparks. The venge kill discussion early has always been a concern to me. It allowed Zipped to pretend he would shoot Chuggs or Hedin, and it set up a conversation about Sparks that imo enabled the quick and easy vote on him later. We know Sparks was town and Melon goes on to sit on him for almost all of day 1 before a move to Zipped that doesn't really exonerate her from anything. The venge kill convo also highlighted that Hedin wouldn't use his, which made him ideal for a scum team trying to get numbers early.
- I always find it interesting to look at the word choice people use. Melon referred to Sparks as the enemy early on, and when he flipped town, she specifically repeated his opening reaction to ATP's death "Fuckity". It reads like a celebration rather than having just lost a team member. Her eventual vote on Zipped almost reads like an open wolf @ on Zipped for not being more active. This may be considered more coincidence by the group but I think these things add up and everything matters now, including how arguments and reactions were framed.
Well, anyway. Tldr; Melon protected Zipped, went after Sparks early, then seemed interested in setting up myself then Nin. Either they're scum or playing an absolutely awful town game . I still want to get the scum that pushed the Hedin train but we have lower numbers now and there's multiple candidates. If we flip Melon though and she's scum, I think we can infer a lot from her other interactions. I've tried to stay pragmatic and read the game from the events that happen and what the consequences of each game event were, and not get too bogged down on the personalities but I'll place this as my first serious scum read.
Separately, everything around Nin last night and his hammer is a massive fuck up and I'm super disappointed he provided that opportunity to the scum team. You can pretty much read every single person's responses to that and their vote/non votes as suspect so I'm just going to close my eyes on that today. Maybe it helps later on but it probably just confuses things, at least for me.
It wasn't your posts that did anything. I'll be honest and say I didn't read them last night and only did this morning.Just going to point out the before and after there. Something about my posts put me back on the table.
This too. You could argue that HP locked himself pretty early into a zipped vote and never talked about hedin to set that up but that doesn't explain melon.I just don't understand why a scum HP and scum Melon would not find a way to vote for Hedin when they had a chance. He was one away from turbo for a long time, they both were around, and they just didn't do anything with it.
It was me working through the entirety of the thread in my head and everybody's action so far. Unless zipped was willing to throw shade at his buddies, melon and chugs, at a time when he had three votes in another train had not yet really started that kind of clears them. HP also locked himself into the zip boat pretty early and ended up there as well which clears him as too. Your actions of voting zipped early also clears you but you then backed away later on which I keep going back and forth on. I think it clears you more than anything but zipped also didn't really pay you any mind so I have to keep that in mind. Which leaves me with Alex and fire and those two don't make any sense considering they keep going for each other so I'm at a loss. Either they're both scum and are doing this on purpose because people are starting to come down to both of them, only one of them is scum, or I'm just way off and it's one of the others. You're kind of in my PoE.
which is why im still 50/50 on the action. it's easier for a scum!donnie to move off of his buddy zipped if a townie presents the idea instead of him taking the initiative himself. you'd have the cover of blaming me for the idea instead of just something you came up with.Hmm yeah, okay, fair enough! Thanks for the response, it's important not to close anyone off so I appreciate that. I think the only addendum I could put on there was the move was directly solicited by yourself lol it was presented as breaking the stalemate and I was attempting to find a way forward based on the numbers of townies we still had at the time. Some folks had pitched Hedin pretty hard and loud, they didn't seem to want to come off of where they were (and I think we've generally been theorising there was a scum on there so at least one makes sense).