• Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
  • We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Jan 10, 2018
7,207
Tokyo
It's funny because I don't even see that much Nintendo hate compared to the people that rush in and instantly strawman. Hell, this forum is full of Nintendo fans, yet you see tons of people acting like they are in the minority. It's hilarious.

I've never even seen someone seriously say that "Nintendo is doomed"


Nobody says that because Nintendo could realistically take 2-3 WiiU level failures before being in real trouble, and the switch remains so far a success. But voicing concerns about what many of us perceive as an underwhelming year for the machine sure generates disproportionate reactions with some of the participants here, and these reactions can only be justified by putting words in our mouth. If anything it's quite entertaining.
 

Deleted member 5535

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,656
Nobody says that because Nintendo could realistically take 2-3 WiiU level failures before being in real trouble, and the switch remains so far a success. But voicing concerns about what many of us perceive as an underwhelming year for the machine sure generates disproportionate reactions with some of the participants here, and these reactions can only be justified by putting words in our mouth. If anything it's quite entertaining.

I never put anything on your mouth, only talked about what you actually did. You're the one actually doing that and t's embarrassing man.
 

Dr. Mario

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,889
Netherlands
Oh hey this thread got bumped, hoping that means it's recov....

Fuck.

I knew I should have sold off after the first drop, but I guess I'm going to lose a few hundred as I ride this thing to the bottom instead.
 

Dwebble

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,627
Switch consistently losing NPDs in what should be a peak era (Year 2-3) is kind of jarring, particularly when compared to the stratospheric hype of last year. Ah well, things will pick up at some point.
The second year is not traditionally the peak year in a console's release cycle. It tends to be late 3rd/early 4th, when the price is lower, the game library is established and the software pipeline is mature.

The PS4 is likely to be at its peak now. The Switch should be a while off yet.
 

Dust

C H A O S
Member
Oct 25, 2017
32,297
Pokemon is Pokemon, even if the game is hot pile of garbage, it will push the systems and sell millions.
Not sure what investors are afraid about, unless Switch is really slowing down in USA/EU.
 

MrTired

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,230
Pokemon is Pokemon, even if the game is hot pile of garbage, it will push the systems and sell millions.
Not sure what investors are afraid about, unless Switch is really slowing down in USA/EU.
I look shipment is going to be lower than last year's Q1 and ZhugeEx reported that sell-through numbers are also lower than last year's numbers.
 

Aters

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
7,948
It's not about Switch "slowing down", it's about Switch not selling like maniac. Investors look for the greatest possible growth, something like a new mobile hit, a new AAA IP, or a casual market penetration. "Doing fine" is not enough.

The biggest problem about Nintendo is that the company shows absolutely zero growing point. Everything is doing just as people expect, which is not bad, but certainly not what investors are looking for, especially in current stock market climate where everything is rocketing high.
 

Dr. Mario

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,889
Netherlands
April-June 2017 had Mario Kart 8 DX, ARMS and was still riding off the success of Breath of the Wild. 2018 is considerably weaker in the same period of time. This wouldn't be that surprising.
Is it not surprising?
If only the new games dictated sales, wouldn't the second year end up worse than the first year?

Did it drop on the US stock exchange also?
Don't think that opened yet, I'm in Europe. It's 'only' -3.6 here though.
 

DiK4

Banned
Nov 4, 2017
1,085
So is now a good time to buy... Or y'all think it's gonna get lower lol?? I'm pretty sure they're gonna come back with a bang soon enough.
 

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
ZhugeEx reported that sell-through numbers are also lower than last year's numbers.
and yet all still within Nintendo expectations. cause once again investors / Analyst Expectation =/= Nintendo Expectations.


So is now a good time to buy... Or y'all think it's gonna get lower lol?? I'm pretty sure they're gonna come back with a bang soon enough.
if the stocks due are down cause investor having a brain dead panic attack, wait till after July 31 IR

There should be another Drop there
 

Aters

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
7,948
So is now a good time to buy... Or y'all think it's gonna get lower lol?? I'm pretty sure they're gonna come back with a bang soon enough.
Do not seek investment suggestion here.

if the stocks due are down cause investor having a brain dead panic attack, wait till after July 31 IR

There should be another Drop there
So investors are brain dead... They are investors for a reason. You don't get to the position to tank a stock with a dead brain. Quite contrary, only selected few people can get to that position.
 

Dr. Mario

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,889
Netherlands
So is now a good time to buy... Or y'all think it's gonna get lower lol?? I'm pretty sure they're gonna come back with a bang soon enough.
I think you can make some modest profit. But I personally want to have my stock sold by mid December. Lots of traders want to take their profit for the year (though for Nintendo, that's perhaps less likely currently), and shortly after Brexit is going to cause ripples. Don't know how that's going to work out for the timing of Smash Bros, but Pokemon should give a nice boost. I don't think it will do great before that though.
 

Deleted member 8593

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
27,176
Is it not surprising?
If only the new games dictated sales, wouldn't the second year end up worse than the first year?

Not necessarily, I think. They have a lot of evergreen titles on the system now that keep selling decently throughout the year but see huge upticks during holiday season. I'd wager that those games, namely Zelda, Mario, Mario Kart and Splatoon 2 in Japan are also what's driving hardware sales. Breath of the Wild and Mario Kart 8 suddenly reentered the top 10 in the December 2017 NPD for example. It's definitely going to be an interesting year though.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,426
I don't know how a Holiday lineup with Mario Part, Smash and Pokémon isn't great. In fact, it's better than last year which had only Mario as a huge title while this year there's Smash and Pokémon as huge and Mario Party as big
the lineups good.

My issue is Yoshi and FE were supposed to be a part of that lineup and they're not.
I wasn't expecting huge announcements for H2.
But I was expecting previously announced 2018 games to be 2018.
That's why I'm personally dissatisfied. Not due to lofty expectations.

and both those delayed 2018 games have worrying question marks.
 

Dr. Mario

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,889
Netherlands
We've been working on the hypothesis that it is "obvious" for a second year to do better than a first year, as it becomes more mainstream and gets a bigger library of games. Now it's unsurprising that it actually does worse (I don't think PS4 did worse yoy, Xbox family did, but that's also due to X360 falling off). If I read it correctly, 3DS did do slightly worse in Q2 of its second year, so I guess not all is lost (though 3DS actually still had to compete with DS, selling similar numbers in Q2 2012).
 

Charamiwa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,059
There just isn't any good news right now. "Just wait for November" isn't good enough. No growth, no new ideas, no prospect for the future, just cruising until Pokémon takes care of everything. If I don't feel good about Nintendo this year, I don't see why the investors would.

I'm sure this is lighting a fire under their asses though. They might say everything is fine in interviews, but they can't be happy that this is the narrative this year. Hopefully that means they're willing to make some efforts to actually please people with some good news and stop being so damn secretive when clearly it's not working..
 
Jan 10, 2018
7,207
Tokyo
There just isn't any good news right now. "Just wait for November" isn't good enough. No growth, no new ideas, no prospect for the future, just cruising until Pokémon takes care of everything. If I don't feel good about Nintendo this year, I don't see why the investors would.

Cruising is the correct choice of word indeed, and it's not a good look in my view as they just got out of a failed machine.
 

Deleted member 8593

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
27,176
We've been working on the hypothesis that it is "obvious" for a second year to do better than a first year, as it becomes more mainstream and gets a bigger library of games. Now it's unsurprising that it actually does worse (I don't think PS4 did worse yoy, Xbox family did, but that's also due to X360 falling off). If I read it correctly, 3DS did do slightly worse in Q2 of its second year, so I guess not all is lost (though 3DS actually still had to compete with DS, selling similar numbers in Q2 2012).

I mean, we are looking at a quarter in isolation. Nintendo themselves expect Q1 to be weaker but for Q3 and Q4 to make up for it. If the FY2018 sales fall short by a lot, it's time to worry.
 

Pooroomoo

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,972
So is now a good time to buy... Or y'all think it's gonna get lower lol?? I'm pretty sure they're gonna come back with a bang soon enough.
I think the worst in stock reaction is still to come, after they announce this quarter's results (around end July I think?) which I guess will be lower that the equivalent quarter last year.
 

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
We've been working on the hypothesis that it is "obvious" for a second year to do better than a first year, as it becomes more mainstream and gets a bigger library of games. Now it's unsurprising that it actually does worse (I don't think PS4 did worse yoy, Xbox family did, but that's also due to X360 falling off). If I read it correctly, 3DS did do slightly worse in Q2 of its second year, so I guess not all is lost (though 3DS actually still had to compete with DS, selling similar numbers in Q2 2012).
You are talking about whole year YoY when we are only 3 months in. those are lots of assumptions and extrapolating

You don't get to the position to tank a stock with a dead brain
investors are investors cause they have money, you dont need to pass a test or anything.
and they tank stocks cause investors dont know anything they just follow trends. its simple like cows jumping off a cliff and the other following suit, they dont know why, they just copy the behavior.
and yes, several years of Q&A is what make think Investor are brain dead in the Games department
 

Deleted member 9584

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
7,132
It will bounce back up when they start leaking the existence of the 4DS and everything will be as it should when it's finally revealed and released.
 

byDoS

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,192
I'm changing my prediction again for hardware this fiscal year.

First I was at 18M. Then I changed it for 15M.

Now I'm betting on 13M.

Nintendo will get to October with less than 5M units sold, apperently. And since I think they are doing 7M units in Q3, this will leave them with a little more than 1M units to be done in Q4.

This is all sold through, btw. Can't really say how much they are gonna ship until March next year.
 

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
I'm sure this is lighting a fire under their asses though. They might say everything is fine in interviews, but they can't be happy that this is the narrative this year. Hopefully that means they're willing to make some efforts to actually please people with some good news and stop being so damn secretive when clearly it's not working..
its been working for years for 3DS, they are not gonna change cause people are going full panic mode for 1Q. its Good Nintendo is less reactive and more cold headed.


And since I think they are doing 7M units in Q3
you expect em to do less this Q3 than last year?
 

Shengar

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,052
It's not about Switch "slowing down", it's about Switch not selling like maniac. Investors look for the greatest possible growth, something like a new mobile hit, a new AAA IP, or a casual market penetration. "Doing fine" is not enough.

The biggest problem about Nintendo is that the company shows absolutely zero growing point. Everything is doing just as people expect, which is not bad, but certainly not what investors are looking for, especially in current stock market climate where everything is rocketing high.
Blergh, the cult of growth is probably one of the worst thing from the investing culture. Focus on growth, and yearly green numbers is what makes layoff happened so often while the shareholders got shittons of dividend.

It's not wrong for investor for seeking profit. That's what they do. But their impatience and sheer dislike of waiting hurts various industry.
So investors are brain dead... They are investors for a reason. You don't get to the position to tank a stock with a dead brain. Quite contrary, only selected few people can get to that position.
Just because they can read number and forecast, that doesn't mean they are bright.

It will bounce back up when they start leaking the existence of the 4DS and everything will be as it should when it's finally revealed and released.

LMAO
 

Sander VF

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
26,018
Tbilisi, Georgia
I think secrecy is biting them in the ass.

Even if they were to drop some good announcements and have it all work out in the end (and no I don't believe they won't sell gangbusters in fall and december, even if they fall short of their target, it won't be by much, so no need to explain all of this to me), will it be worth bearing concerns for months for no real gain?
 

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
Poor Nintendo
Everyone is against them
Hot Take of the day and its only 7 AM.


I think secrecy is biting them in the ass.

Even if they were to drop some good announcements and have it all work out in the end (and no I don't believe they won't sell gangbusters in fall and december, even if they fall short of their target, it won't be by much, so no need to explain all of this to me), will it be worth bearing concerns for months for no real gain?
is their MO, nothing to do about, for anyone not selling into the panic this actually work, buy now, and get gain on holidays
 

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
Yeah
Every defensive post you'll make will bump Nin stock by 0.1%. Keep it rollin
be4e8a1d22b519f29417d0572dd1b083--manga-anime.jpg
 

Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,828
What does "sales pale compared to last year" even mean? 80%? 75% 50% Less than half? We already know Media Create plus NPD sales for the period should add up to a million, and if we extent that to Europe as well, we get 1.4-1.5 million, which isn't that much lower than last year's number. So what exactly are they talking about?
 

Drencrom

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,645
SWE
Blergh, the cult of growth is probably one of the worst thing from the investing culture. Focus on growth, and yearly green numbers is what makes layoff happened so often while the shareholders got shittons of dividend.

It's not wrong for investor for seeking profit. That's what they do. But their impatience and sheer dislike of waiting hurts various industry.

To the bolded: Welcome to Capitalism! This is how this shit have always worked.

investors also tanked the stocks when Switch was 1st announced. so yeah. they are not the brightest of the bunch by a long shot.
Just because they can read number and forecast, that doesn't mean they are bright.

The market is neither dumb or smart, it's reactive. The whole narrative that investors are dumb or mean to Nintendo because they are impatient is absurd. Investors are just evaluating Nintendo's prospect of making them a profit, sometimes the market's expectations are right sometimes they get it wrong. They aren't fanboys or harbor any ill will towards companies.
 

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
To the bolded: Welcome to Capitalism! This is how this shit have always worked.




The market is neither dumb or smart, it's reactive. The whole narrative that investors are dumb or mean to Nintendo because they are impatient is absurd. Investors are just evaluating Nintendo's prospect of making them a profit, sometimes the market's expectations are right sometimes they get it wrong. They aren't fanboys or harbor any ill will towards companies.
being reactive is not far different than dumb imo. people see other people panic and instead of assets the situation emselves. they just follow suit
"If your friends jump off a window, will you jump too?"
also me calling em dumb is beyond just stock panic, year of year of Q&A are my basis for that too. "Why are you still making hardware?", "why are are you not making more mobile games?", " Why are you talking about Video games all the time?" etc, etc etc.

this whole stocks decline been a massive snowball effect and a cycle on nothing buy reaction
>Stocks sky rocket from PG > Stocks normalize (go down) near E3 > Stocks go down for E3 > people think is trend > Stocks keep further going down > news outlets make it as if Stock Going down is sign of a bad line up > people read it and stocks keeps going down > any further new that is not Nintendo revealing every single game planed for hte next 3 year "is bad" > stocks keeps going down > news outlets make it as if Stock Going down is sign of a bad line up.

Rinse and Repeat


When the switch was announced there was a small dip followed by a quick correction. What's happening now is completely different.
its actually quite in line from the past 3 years. stocks been Going up >>> Soaring >>> Going down ... its not be an steady up trend

1b9d08bd06.png
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.