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May 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, June 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Yeah, last year had one game in Q4 that sold 2M+ (my estimate, but quite likely for SMO), and this year that have two games that are guaranteed (pokémon and Smash, maybe both over 3M even), and Mario Party that should do well over 1M in Q4 imo. As such, it makes a lot of sense for Switch to sell well above last year during Q4.
Xenoblade did very well, but it's not a big game for Switch in terms of sales or hardware moving power imo.
Estimates are US only, mind.
October is RDR2 Custom/Standard PS4 Bundle month so probably not.
Welfare Ryng Manuel Tolu - I'm doing a 'just for fun' speadsheet with WW sales estimates based on NPD results, with a 100 point spread (i.e. for PS4 NPD=30%,/35%/40% of WW sales, Xbox 60%/65%/70%) and wondered if you or anyone else had any estimates on NSW US sales as a % of WW, please?
I think it's ~35-40%? If you're doing three separate estimates, probably go with 35/40/45.
Well, unlike XB1, we have Switch total shipments worldwide, so se have a good idea of the actual sales numbers, assuming sales are about ~1 to ~2 million under shipments at worst.
Switch is at 17.77 million by the end of March, so we can assume sales are something between 15.5 to 17 million.
USA is at 5.75 million by the end of March, so looks like overall USA sales should be in the 32% to 38% range.
45% is way too much, that's almost half of the intere worldwide sales. 30/35/40 should be the best estimate, depending on the months.
I didn't want to say 30% as that seems to low. Yeah 45% is too high right now so I would just stick with 35-40%.
I would be very suprised if Pokemon and Smash Bros dont sell at least 5m each (especially Pokemon because its November game, maybe we talking around 10m), and Super Mario Party at least 2m.
I know Amazon is not an all tell all said but you have to give credit to Smash, pre-order alone it already passed over MH:W in "Best seller 2018"
I've been checking Amazon for a few different countries just to get a flavor for sales and noticed this as well. It's the 5th highest selling game on Amazon for 2018 even though it doesn't launch for another 5 1/2 months.
As I mentioned in the Media Create thread, if Nintendo matches its quarterly shipment splits for Switch from FY2017 (i.e., 39% or so for the Americas), then we're looking at 7.8MM of the 20MM Switches being shipped to the Americas for FY2018. Even if they manage something outrageous like 5MM from October through January (500K, 1.5MM, 2.5MM, 500K), that leaves 2.8MM to be sold across the other 8 months, so 350,000 per month.
Of course, that doesn't include additional areas not tracked by NPD for the Americas. And I'm not even 100% sure what areas ARE covered by the "Americas" definition in Nintendo's shipment statements. All of North and South America? I wonder if we have any idea what percentage of sales occur outside of NPD's tracking.
we can try to calculate. tho
by Nintendo IR, last Fiscal Year, Americas were
Q1 April to June = 750,000
Q2 July to September = 1,170,000
Q3 October to November = 2,820,000
Q4 January to March = 1,200,000
Going by NPD the same time frames were (If I have the right numbers)
Q1 = 610,000
Q2 = 752,000
Q3 = 2,700,000
Q4 = 858,000
so Quick math done wrong, for each Q, USA account % from the Americas was
Q1 = 81.3%
Q2 = 64.3%
Q3 = 95.7%
Q4 = 71.5%
that averages 78.2% of The Americas Sales are from USA
Thanks for the legwork! Instead of averaging the numbers across quarters, I used the totals to come to 82.8% of shipments (4,920,000 NPD sales divided by 5,940,000 total shipment). That would mean that Nintendo would have to sell approximately 6.5MM in the USA for FY2018.
Something like the following would work:
April 2018: 170,000
May 2018: 167,000
June 2018: 325,000 (Fortnite, Mario Tennis, Minecraft physical, and others plus official announcements for Smash and Pokemon - late May, but a residual effect)
July 2018: 250,000 (residual effect from June releases plus Octopath and Captain Toad)
August 2018: 200,000 (not much here: Overcooked 2 and Monster Hunter at the end of the month?)
September 2018: 280,000 (Nintendo Online - they must have SOMETHING planned - and a strong end to the month with Xenoblade, Dragon Ball, etc.)
October 2018: 350,000 (momentum from end of September plus Mario Party and Mega Man 11)
November 2018: 1,400,000 (Pokemon)
December 2018: 2,200,000 (Smash)
January 2019: 450,000 (residual effect from Pokemon and Smash releases)
February 2019: 350,000 (coming back to normal)
March 2019: 300,000 (further back to normal)
TOTAL: 6,442,000
Unsurprisingly, a lot of it comes down to November and December. If they sell over 3.5MM for those two months, they should hit their target.
Yeah, I used Pablo's numbers, just in the aggregate over the full fiscal year.
Thats why I said try. But given low stock last year, shipped and sold should be fairly equal for this experiment tho
2nd Year: PS4 2014 x NSW 2018 x 3DS 2012
Code:
+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Month | PS4 | NSW | 3DS |
+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| JAN | 271k| 270k| 160k|
| FEB | 269k| 280k| 262k|
| MAR | 371k| 310k| 225k|
| APR | 199k| 170k| 125k|
| MAY | 197k| 165k| 113k|
| JUN | 269k| | 155k|
| JUL | 187k| | 125k|
| AUG | 190k| | 176k|
| SEP | 538k| | 213k|
| OCT | 287k| | 192k|
| NOV | 826k| | 540k|
| DEC | 1065k| | 1250k|
+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOT | 4666k| | 3536k|
+-------+-------+-------+-------+
Last edited:
We are upgrading the dataset which is resulting in a two week delay to June data release. June data will release on August 7th.
July data will release a couple weeks later, I believe Aug 21.
Should have some other fun things coming with the upgrade. So I have that going for me, which is nice.
July data will release a couple weeks later, I believe Aug 21.
Should have some other fun things coming with the upgrade. So I have that going for me, which is nice.
Last edited:
No, August 7th will be June's results.
July's results will probably be mid August.
OP
OP
I prefer NASA's no-nonsense acronyms, so focusing on function over form is fine with me. Had to deal with with some stupidly named process before that someone did contortions to name so the acronym would be PEE. When in doubt on length, TLAs tend to work well, though.
TLA=Three Letter Acronym
Thanks!
It's two weeks, but June was already a week longer than the previous month. Waiting for 5-week monthly results usually seems longer, in any case, so adding 2 weeks onto that makes it seem that much longer.
Did I miss the June prediction thread? Or has it just not been made yet? I'm gonna be in a position where I may not have the time/be able to make predictions here in the near future just due to some life events so I'd like to be sure to get the June prediction in before things really start getting crazy.
Yep, but in August I get to work on 4 monthly summary reports, our quarterly Games Market Dynamics report, do two media releases and two new videos all in two weeks. So that'll be something.
OP
OP
And the report is delayed two weeks. Therefore planning on putting out the prediction thread later than normal, too.
Do you think you will have predictions closed before quarterly financial reports release?
32% last data we have so 40% is a lot and doesn't make sense with total install base.
PS4 30% is a better target.
PS4 problably around 80 million... 40% will mean 32 million in us and they don't have that. So 30% is a better number.
Even with the price drop the 3DS had a really poor second year. Those holiday numbers are pretty woeful. The switch is going to destroy those numbers.
somebody fill me in cause im being stupid, why is JUNE counting in 1 week of JULY??
Because January was a 5 week month this year, pushing every other month's tracking period up a week. Think of it like a leap year, but instead of 1 extra day it's 1 extra week.
Here's some fuel for y'all to tell me how wrong I was in the January results thread...
Video Game Industry Predictions for Holiday 2018
Video Game Industry Predictions for Holiday 2018
Everything is Up YOY, as it should be.
Best year since 2012 will be nice, bigger pie for everybody is the best kind of Pie.
Kinda suprising that You think Switch will be the best selling console of the year, yet not a single Switch game is gonna reach top 10 ?
Is it because Pokemon Lets go will count as two seperate releases, thus each one individually being below top 10, even if they could reach it if the SKUs were combined ?
Well, the issue with the top 10 list is that Nintendo is not a member of the Digital Leader Panel, so we don't track any digital point of sale data for Nintendo published products and I'm trying to construct what the yearly top 10 will look like given NPD reporting rules, for better or worse. And yes, each Pokemon Let's Go version is tracked separately.
I think smash would be able to break in at 10th even if its just 1 month accounting for sales and mostly Physical.
Curious for Switch holidays, on the current track of Q1 and if Q2 and Q4 stay Flat (and many other guesswork), Q3 (Holiday) would need to be about 4.5M units compared to the 2.7M last year.
Curious for Switch holidays, on the current track of Q1 and if Q2 and Q4 stay Flat (and many other guesswork), Q3 (Holiday) would need to be about 4.5M units compared to the 2.7M last year.
With Smash being December and being only physical getting the TOP 10 for the year will be harder than expect.
If it was like November or early then it was 100% sure. Still, i'm optimist about Smash selling close to 4 million first month so with let's say 3.2-3.6 million at retail, it can break the TOP 10 for the year. If Mario Odyssey did it with about 3 million, Smash surely can too.
If it was like November or early then it was 100% sure. Still, i'm optimist about Smash selling close to 4 million first month so with let's say 3.2-3.6 million at retail, it can break the TOP 10 for the year. If Mario Odyssey did it with about 3 million, Smash surely can too.
Yeah, I'm a big believer in Smash, but release timing and physical tracking only makes it very difficult for me to get to a number that makes this list.
Kinda curious.
Would it be reasonable to expect Mario Tennis Aces to have a larger NPD debut than Kirby? Also could Octopath have a similar debut to XC2?
Toad probably will be down since that had a good debut on Wii U but maybe 100k?
Would it be reasonable to expect Mario Tennis Aces to have a larger NPD debut than Kirby? Also could Octopath have a similar debut to XC2?
Toad probably will be down since that had a good debut on Wii U but maybe 100k?
Do you expect physical sales of Super Smash Bros Ultimate being bigger than Super Smash Bros Brawl first month?
Bravely did 200K first month. I think that's a better comparation. XB2 did over 280K, is possible but i don't see Octopath reach that.
Is there anything the general consumer can do to make Nintendo be part of the Digital leaders panel ?
Would be really swell if NPD could cover the entirety of the US Gaming market, at least when it comes to Consoles.
Would be really swell if NPD could cover the entirety of the US Gaming market, at least when it comes to Consoles.
is really non digital that much of an issue, dont Nintendo have a relatively low % for this compared to other publishers?