Yeah, last year had one game in Q4 that sold 2M+ (my estimate, but quite likely for SMO), and this year that have two games that are guaranteed (pokémon and Smash, maybe both over 3M even), and Mario Party that should do well over 1M in Q4 imo. As such, it makes a lot of sense for Switch to sell well above last year during Q4.Yeah, Switch had a great December last year with nothing big except XC2 (is that even big?) since Odyssey in October.
Pokémon in Nov and Smash in Dec I don't see how it doesn't obliterate last years
Yeah Horizon is coming in October. I think it sells very well and should be bigger because it has the X1X to push its graphical capabilities and increase appeal.
what frame of time? April to June?
I think it's ~35-40%? If you're doing three separate estimates, probably go with 35/40/45.Welfare Ryng Manuel Tolu - I'm doing a 'just for fun' speadsheet with WW sales estimates based on NPD results, with a 100 point spread (i.e. for PS4 NPD=30%,/35%/40% of WW sales, Xbox 60%/65%/70%) and wondered if you or anyone else had any estimates on NSW US sales as a % of WW, please?
Welfare Ryng Manuel Tolu - I'm doing a 'just for fun' speadsheet with WW sales estimates based on NPD results, with a 100 point spread (i.e. for PS4 NPD=30%,/35%/40% of WW sales, Xbox 60%/65%/70%) and wondered if you or anyone else had any estimates on NSW US sales as a % of WW, please?
I think it's ~35-40%? If you're doing three separate estimates, probably go with 35/40/45.
I didn't want to say 30% as that seems to low. Yeah 45% is too high right now so I would just stick with 35-40%.Well, unlike XB1, we have Switch total shipments worldwide, so se have a good idea of the actual sales numbers, assuming sales are about ~1 to ~2 million under shipments at worst.
Switch is at 17.77 million by the end of March, so we can assume sales are something between 15.5 to 17 million.
USA is at 5.75 million by the end of March, so looks like overall USA sales should be in the 32% to 38% range.
45% is way too much, that's almost half of the intere worldwide sales. 30/35/40 should be the best estimate, depending on the months.
Yeah, last year had one game in Q4 that sold 2M+ (my estimate, but quite likely for SMO), and this year that have two games that are guaranteed (pokémon and Smash, maybe both over 3M even), and Mario Party that should do well over 1M in Q4 imo. As such, it makes a lot of sense for Switch to sell well above last year during Q4.
Xenoblade did very well, but it's not a big game for Switch in terms of sales or hardware moving power imo.
Estimates are US only, mind.
I would be very suprised if Pokemon and Smash Bros dont sell at least 5m each (especially Pokemon because its November game, maybe we talking around 10m), and Super Mario Party at least 2m.
I know Amazon is not an all tell all said but you have to give credit to Smash, pre-order alone it already passed over MH:W in "Best seller 2018"
I've been checking Amazon for a few different countries just to get a flavor for sales and noticed this as well. It's the 5th highest selling game on Amazon for 2018 even though it doesn't launch for another 5 1/2 months.I know Amazon is not an all tell all said but you have to give credit to Smash, pre-order alone it already passed over MH:W in "Best seller 2018"
we can try to calculate. thoI've been checking Amazon for a few different countries just to get a flavor for sales and noticed this as well. It's the 5th highest selling game on Amazon for 2018 even though it doesn't launch for another 5 1/2 months.
As I mentioned in the Media Create thread, if Nintendo matches its quarterly shipment splits for Switch from FY2017 (i.e., 39% or so for the Americas), then we're looking at 7.8MM of the 20MM Switches being shipped to the Americas for FY2018. Even if they manage something outrageous like 5MM from October through January (500K, 1.5MM, 2.5MM, 500K), that leaves 2.8MM to be sold across the other 8 months, so 350,000 per month.
Of course, that doesn't include additional areas not tracked by NPD for the Americas. And I'm not even 100% sure what areas ARE covered by the "Americas" definition in Nintendo's shipment statements. All of North and South America? I wonder if we have any idea what percentage of sales occur outside of NPD's tracking.
Thanks for the legwork! Instead of averaging the numbers across quarters, I used the totals to come to 82.8% of shipments (4,920,000 NPD sales divided by 5,940,000 total shipment). That would mean that Nintendo would have to sell approximately 6.5MM in the USA for FY2018.we can try to calculate. tho
by Nintendo IR, last Fiscal Year, Americas were
Q1 April to June = 750,000
Q2 July to September = 1,170,000
Q3 October to November = 2,820,000
Q4 January to March = 1,200,000
Going by NPD the same time frames were (If I have the right numbers)
Q1 = 610,000
Q2 = 752,000
Q3 = 2,700,000
Q4 = 858,000
so Quick math done wrong, for each Q, USA account % from the Americas was
Q1 = 81.3%
Q2 = 64.3%
Q3 = 95.7%
Q4 = 71.5%
that averages 78.2% of The Americas Sales are from USA
Yeah, I used Pablo's numbers, just in the aggregate over the full fiscal year.You can't use simple average when q3 is bigger than all the others combined and also shipment and sell trough dont follow a linear relation
Thats why I said try. But given low stock last year, shipped and sold should be fairly equal for this experiment thoYou can't use simple average when q3 is bigger than all the others combined and also shipment and sell trough dont follow a linear relation
+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Month | PS4 | NSW | 3DS |
+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| JAN | 271k| 270k| 160k|
| FEB | 269k| 280k| 262k|
| MAR | 371k| 310k| 225k|
| APR | 199k| 170k| 125k|
| MAY | 197k| 165k| 113k|
| JUN | 269k| | 155k|
| JUL | 187k| | 125k|
| AUG | 190k| | 176k|
| SEP | 538k| | 213k|
| OCT | 287k| | 192k|
| NOV | 826k| | 540k|
| DEC | 1065k| | 1250k|
+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOT | 4666k| | 3536k|
+-------+-------+-------+-------+
U mean July?We are upgrading the dataset which is resulting in a two week delay to June data release. June data will release on August 7th.
My gosh. Well, a lot of time to predict and discuss.We are upgrading the dataset which is resulting in a two week delay to June data release. June data will release on August 7th.
I prefer NASA's no-nonsense acronyms, so focusing on function over form is fine with me. Had to deal with with some stupidly named process before that someone did contortions to name so the acronym would be PEE. When in doubt on length, TLAs tend to work well, though.Telling a bunch of data peeps to get creative with acronyms... some fights cannot be won.
We are upgrading the dataset which is resulting in a two week delay to June data release. June data will release on August 7th.
It's two weeks, but June was already a week longer than the previous month. Waiting for 5-week monthly results usually seems longer, in any case, so adding 2 weeks onto that makes it seem that much longer.
We are upgrading the dataset which is resulting in a two week delay to June data release. June data will release on August 7th.
July data will release a couple weeks later, I believe Aug 21.
Should have some other fun things coming with the upgrade. So I have that going for me, which is nice.
June's NPD tracking period ends tomorrow.Did I miss the June prediction thread? Or has it just not been made yet? I'm gonna be in a position where I may not have the time/be able to make predictions here in the near future just due to some life events so I'd like to be sure to get the June prediction in before things really start getting crazy.
And the report is delayed two weeks. Therefore planning on putting out the prediction thread later than normal, too.
And the report is delayed two weeks. Therefore planning on putting out the prediction thread later than normal, too.
32% last data we have so 40% is a lot and doesn't make sense with total install base.I think it's ~35-40%? If you're doing three separate estimates, probably go with 35/40/45.
Should have some other fun things coming with the upgrade. So I have that going for me, which is nice.
We are upgrading the dataset which is resulting in a two week delay to June data release. June data will release on August 7th.
July data will release a couple weeks later, I believe Aug 21.
Should have some other fun things coming with the upgrade. So I have that going for me, which is nice.
2nd Year: PS4 2014 x NSW 2018 x 3DS 2012
Code:+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | Month | PS4 | NSW | 3DS | +-------+-------+-------+-------+ | JAN | 190k| 270k| 160k| | FEB | 340k| 280k| 262k| | MAR | 330k| 310k| 225k| | APR | 175k| 170k| 125k| | MAY | 155k| 165k| 113k| | JUN | 370k| | 155k| | JUL | 220k| | 125k| | AUG | 210k| | 176k| | SEP | 355k| | 213k| | OCT | 275k| | 192k| | NOV | 1540k| | 540k| | DEC | 1580k| | 1250k| +-------+-------+-------+-------+
somebody fill me in cause im being stupid, why is JUNE counting in 1 week of JULY??
Because January was a 5 week month this year, pushing every other month's tracking period up a week. Think of it like a leap year, but instead of 1 extra day it's 1 extra week.somebody fill me in cause im being stupid, why is JUNE counting in 1 week of JULY??
Here's some fuel for y'all to tell me how wrong I was in the January results thread...
Video Game Industry Predictions for Holiday 2018
Kinda suprising that You think Switch will be the best selling console of the year, yet not a single Switch game is gonna reach top 10 ?
Is it because Pokemon Lets go will count as two seperate releases, thus each one individually being below top 10, even if they could reach it if the SKUs were combined ?
Yeah, I'm a big believer in Smash, but release timing and physical tracking only makes it very difficult for me to get to a number that makes this list.
Kinda curious.
Would it be reasonable to expect Mario Tennis Aces to have a larger NPD debut than Kirby? Also could Octopath have a similar debut to XC2?
Toad probably will be down since that had a good debut on Wii U but maybe 100k?
is really non digital that much of an issue, dont Nintendo have a relatively low % for this compared to other publishers?Yeah, I'm a big believer in Smash, but release timing and physical tracking only makes it very difficult for me to get to a number that makes this list.