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PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Post E3 2018
- Thread starter Phoenix Splash
- Start date
I think 24-25TF might only be possible next gen, if there are mid-gen upgrades, say PS5 Pro and Xbox Two X, in the 2023-2024 time frame, depending on what AMD chooses for a process node after the 7nm+EUV lineup for 2020
As it stands, I believe the new ~2020 base consoles will fall somewhere between 12 and 14 TF (DF's estimate is 11-15 TF)
I'll believe that once I see 7nm EUV hit mass production :D that said, their projections for the delta from 7 to 5 is like up to 1.8x area scaling and 15%-ish power reduction, so it's pretty doubtful you'd be able to get 24TF in a reasonably sized APU die.
I not even certain we going to get next gen upgrades .
A lot will depends on the nodes but i guess we will see.
I agree. That particular report made 7nm+ seem like an afterthought. Next year will be incredibly interesting for TSMC. It would be pretty disappointing to see 7nm DUV consoles launch while 5nm EUV phones are already on the market, but that's the economics of it.
Even with 5nm, I don't see a console going past 16TF.
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We really don't know the year either way, so I don't know why people are acting as if they do.
I'm not certain we will get next gen mid-gen upgrades, either.
It indeed depends, I agree with you on that.
if they get, what we think they are getting. 8c 3ghz, 6 c for gamming, that puts them at parity, or ver very close to it with pc gamming. I will be interested to see what devs do with it. that is a 3x increase in power over what they have now.
I think we'll get a much longer hype cycle from Microsoft alright. Don't know about the timing though .
I think they will do a Project Scorpio type of unveiling next E3. Give some basic specs like 14TF, 16gigs of GDDR6 ram and maybe mention the Ryzen cpu with core count. I doubt they will mention clocks speeds of the cpu or gpu. They will probably have the board render by that point. Release will be Fall 2020
I think you've got a few sources mixed up here. Phil basically just confirmed that new Xbox hardware was in development this year. Rumors about Scarlet came from third party sources. I could certainly see them doing another Scorpio approach next year though. IE: "Scarlet is coming next year, has these target specs and BC with One family".
I don't think we'll get that much, and Microsoft won't release in the Spring. Microsoft didn't announce the Scarlet project name, as Burdmayn mentioned, it was Windows Central that did.
I think at E3 2019 we might get what we had for Project Scorpio at E3 2016, the project name (maybe just confirmation of Scarlet) with a render of the motherboard, maybe even the amount of TFlops for the GPU (like 2016) but perhaps not, if PS5 specs haven't leaked by that time. PS4 Pro GPU performance leaked well before E3 2016. I think both companies will want to keep their specs under wraps until the year they're out, which I think will be 2020, and Fall/Q4/Holiday.
Specs leak as soon as third party devs get the devkits. the PS4 and X1 specs were known months before they were officially revealed.
Eh after teasing it for a year I don't see them doing an announcement as plain as the Scorpio one for a brand new system that runs new games, It might not go down well if all there is to chew on is a motherboard picture and some talking heads going on about the finest uncompressed AI or some nonsense.
Like I posted before the Scarlet codename was revealed back in December 2017 and possibly known by Windows Central peeps in July 2017. 3+ years from release (if late 2020) is a very early leak even just for the codename.
When the GDDR5 RAM in Orbis (PS4) got bumped from 4GB to 8 GB that made for some entertaining threads.
yeah that was the reveal bomb. we all knew about the 1.8 tflop gpu but man that 8 GB GDDR5 announcement was a megaton.
it would be funny if Sony sends underpowered devkits to Ubisoft and other notorious third party leakers only to reveal a much more powerful GPU. The console wars are going to be so much fun with Phil and Cerny both trying to outdo each other to win the Tflops war.
That would be a disaster of epic proportions.
While it might be entertaining to some extent I'd much rather Microsoft stayed competitive. I'm expecting/hoping they'll put in a much better performance next gen.
Dude said I was trying to hide information from people, so nah, it was very necessary.
I don't see how it would be a disaster at all. Both SKUs would be reveal at the same time. You beat the PS5 to launch by 7 months. And when the PS5 launches you beat it in power.
Expect them to go very conservative on estimates so they're guaranteed to meet if not exceed them by the time nextbox launches
8TF for a 2020 console using a 7nm process?
That would be disappointing, even at $399.
Jason, any ideas as to what the mysterious nda'd console alluded to by bink video maybe?
Here's the thing though. The leak came from windows central, a website dedicated to news and leaks about JUST Microsoft, a very reputable website at that. They don't just do leaks for xbox, the info they get from trusted sources gets passed on to us. At one point they got scarlet info and passed it on to us, Microsoft essentially has it's own newspaper/ tabloid (in a good way) following them around. Sony as far as i know has nothing like that, this to me is not surprising at all. I completely expected microsoft stuff to leak first considering the kind of apparatus they have around them
Edit: When you google "windows rumors" or "microsoft rumors" first thing to pop up is windowscentral. when you google Sony rumors the whole first page are sites dedicated to rumors about just their cameras.
No need to apologise dude :)
I'm not so sure, if this generation has done anything its shown definitively there are very distinct markets for console gaming ie enthusiast and mainstream.
Question is would it be viable to market to both segments at launch? Personally I have no clue, but if I were given a choice I'd (obviously) go for the better performing option.
8 TF Navi is a good deal better then 6 TF Vega.
Also the biggest jump will be Ryzen. Like the jump from 8 Core Puma - 8 Core / 16 T Ryzen is probably as big as PS2 - PS4 in CPU.
Maybe $349.
But this games are made for 2013 hardware anyway. New Console hardware wont change much
Microsoft's biggest issue this gen was messaging. They couldn't clearly articulate what they were trying to do and who they were trying to do it for.
If they launch 2 consoles with differing specs 7 months apart they'll be in the same boat again.
Who's the weaker console for?
Should I wait for the second one?
Will the games be X compatible?
I'd say they'll position themselves similar to Sony last time. "This is a powerful box, it plays games ", keep it simple.
(obviously I could be completely wrong)
This reads more as wishful thinking on your part than anything else.
I don't see how its wishful thinking when all signs point to multiple SKUs, streaming and trying to have the most powerful machine.
I'd like this a lot better if they released at the same time and at $299 and $499.
$299 Xbox 2S
$499 Xbox 2X
If you expect MS to both be first to market and more powerful at the same time prepare to be disappointed
Edit: And also $300 cheaper, with a total of 3 SKUs for the next gen family on the first year. Is not gonna happen
OP
OP
I don't see this. The X/Pro model should be working better than this strategy.
They'll be first to market or the more powerful console. They can't do both. Maybe more expensive/powerful and launch at the same time?
The X/Pro strategy works as they're using technology that's wasn't available in 2013.
I can see them have some sort of streaming solution alright.
Well... The PS4 was both more powerful and launched before the X1. Oh, and it was a lot cheaper! Sony really got everything right with the launch of the PS4.
That's because MS fucked up royally. Sony did so 2 generations ago.
Neither will make such blatant mistakes this time around. They both know the price they need to launch at, the min specs they need to hit, and are willing to eat some cost to hit it.
If both launch at the same time they will both have very similar speccs, and if one beats the other to market by a year (I only see PS5 being able to do that) the other will beat it in specs.
No one will Make the same mistakes againe....
Sony made this mistake with PS3...
MS Made this mistake With XBOX One...
Oh, no, please don't misunderstand - I think so too. I was just reminiscing... :)
That's a pretty big retcon. Their problem was everyone knew what they wanted to do but they had never bothered to create any good reasons why consumers should go along with it.
Never say never... :) Next-gen will be interesting, that's for sure!
....and people think the PS5 in 2019 crowd are insane. I don't see the appeal of this multiple SKU idea if the base machine is less capable than the competition. MS would be better off launching one machine at whatever price point Sony goes with along with roughly equal specs or maybe slightly overclocked if they really have to win those DF comparisons.