Well I'm not getting hung up about that... it is just the statement is confusing.
-
Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
-
We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.
NPD Blog: Switch Will Be Highest Selling Console This Year in US, Red Dead 2 Top Selling Game
- Thread starter Deleted member 249
- Start date
True, but with the consoles launching at completely different times of the year an unbiased comparison is very difficult to do. If we were to look at the numbers again in January then the Switch should have overtaken the PS4 and Xbox One launch-aligned again due to the Switch also having a second holiday by that point.
is any one person supposed to represent Era? because I never doubted the Switch to be a success
Cheers, great catch.
I'm asking the team to get that line fixed. Comparing platforms with 2 holidays to another platform with 1 holiday doesn't really make a ton of sense. For some reason my brain flubbed that line. Whoops.
Last edited:
You don't see Pokemon Let's Go beating bundles on Black Friday? Hmm. I dunno frankly, but whereas last year the sales were split between both systems, I think this year we'll see convergence of 3DS and Switch crowds onto the Switch this Christmas, so if Switch is selling anything less than monstrous it would be quite surprising.
Whether it would make up for the rest of the year is of course anyone's guess.
Well what?
He was bullish on Xbox based on reasoning and assumptions he has explained since in this thread?
But comparing a console with a launch period + 1 holidays with a console with only 1 launch/holidays period is not fair either. Why accepting one unfair comparaison and not the second one?
Thanks for the clarification! So the comparison is first 9 months launch-aligned, yes?
Switch's release timing botches most comparisons. Two holidays to one may be incommensurate, but so is separate launch and holiday windows versus a combined holiday launch. All you can do is be clear about what exactly is being compared, and let analysis examine the possible trajectories.
It will be the first 9 or 12 months of the launch of the consoles so it takes into account the launch period of every console and also 1 holiday period. An example could be Nov-Nov for PS4 and March-March for Switch.
I mean, you're responding to a poster who would think that someone in Matt's profession would forget what games have released for the systems he's making predictions about
basically a "lazy analyst" argument
No it would be November to October for the ps4. So its first holidays is also the launch period. The comparison is favoring the switch because it had a launch and an holidays during the first 12 months.
If you mention launch-aligned sales, use the last data. Don't cherry-pick one period (that stopped 4 months ago) just to fit a narrative
Mario Odyssey not causal? The game doesn't require you to collect every Moon to reach the credits, the game is super causal with the bare minimum amount of moons necessary to proceed being easy to obtain. Mario is the quintessential causal franchise. You could argue that it's a game that casuals can enjoy but that it has a high ceiling for "hardcore games" or whatever nonsense term people want to use but that describes Smash too, or pretty much everything by Nintendo, including Labo and Kirby, which also has that pesky platforming causal are supposedly stumped by as well as harder difficulties.
I don't know what you mean by this point.
No more technical than Mario Tennis Aces or Smash. It just seems like you're making up random excuses as to why one game is casual and the next isn't. 2018 is no more causal than 2017, especially with Tropical Freeze and Bayonetta 1+2 added to the mix.
It favors the Switch less than PS4 having 2 holidays would favor that. As I have already said in this thread there is no way to have a completely unbiased comparison here.
Exactly. So just use the last data or don't dont the comparaison at all. Especially on July, using data from February
the comparisons with Switch and PS4/Xbox One will never be fair because of the timing. always best to just keep that in mind whenever a comparison comes up and focus less on the "x is beating y" aspect and more on the "thing is doing well compared to other thing that's doing well"
I'm just getting rid of the comparison altogether. It really serves no reasonable purpose at this point, as some have mentioned.
Or he can make whatever comparison he wants because this was done as a bit of fun?
Edit: Well he's getting rid of the comparison so are you happy now?
He made a prediction that no one could be certain of either way and ended up being wrong. 'Yikes' indeed.
These sorts of snarky and smarmy comments irk me like not many others do.
Get some perspective and stop making these people's time here more difficult than it should be.
Prediction based on 'numbers' its no a proper prediction.
We can make that because its our guesses, but for a Analyst is more than that.
Don't need to be a genius to see how the thread became now. At him possition his opinion really matters unlike any other era user.
He even already asked to drop the comparison, but was the initial argument of prediction. I like more numbers than assumptions, so thread likes NDP/Pal have more weight.
So what next? People have the right to doubt any prediction, but what I see is people taking seriously any prediction. Yekis indeed.
His predictions are just a little bit of fun as he has already stated in this thread...
OP
OP
I see posters with thinly veiled agendas are here to try and imply fanboyism and what not here.
Pro tip, guys: the only fanboys are you. You just get mad when others are not fanboys of the same things as you.
Pro tip, guys: the only fanboys are you. You just get mad when others are not fanboys of the same things as you.
Because they technically are 2 different games, whether that be the actual content of the games or that they have different sku's.
Nothing. People are just overrated my 'yikes' comment. They think I need to agree with your prediction just because you're NPD guy. I like the fun of prediction, until people start to taking too serious.
Last edited:
in 2014 they count'd smash wii u and Smash 3ds as a single sku, so doesn't make sense
OP
OP
Heck, I'm not even sure I agree with all my predictions. Yep, video game stuff should be fun.
We have Title and Item in the hierarchy. Items are individual product/platform combinations. For example, God of War PS4 Collector's Edition and PS4 God of War base edition are individual Items. Titles roll up the Items that are in the same product family... so all God of War versions roll up to the God of War Title. If it's the same game (outside of potential DLC/MTX) then the Items are rolled up together to a Title level.
The Pokemon games are each considered an individual Title, and are therefore tracked separately.
There's no perfect way to categorize everything in the games space, and of course it's getting harder to do so over time.
Last edited:
It will only have 1 month of sales and will not have digital included so I can see the thinking behind that prediction.
Indeed are. Lets drop all those stuff. You're still answer questions? How Fortnine are pushing NS? Free to play can push hardwares too.
Oh thank god. So lets back to the discussion.
Yep, exactly. Not sure why Fake feels the need to downplay Mat just because of a previous prediction. This thread sure has some people bothered.
Great stuff as usual, Mat!
OP
OP
I always feel bad for our insiders. they do such a good job giving us info we aren't entitled to and posters always weaponize them for the Great War
I'm very interested in this too. The data suggest that Fortnite has had a big impact to PS4 and Xbox One hardware in 2018. But not only that, it reads pretty clearly to me that Accessories like Headsets and Game Cards have also been pushed higher this year by Fortnite.
Will this carry over to Switch? I think it should, but I won't get any read until mid August due to the database upgrades we're putting into place. And even then June data will be noisy because of the strong trade in promotions at GameStop.
Cheers. But really, after sitting in front of some of the execs I've had to in order to advocate for a forecast or show what happened with a title's performance? Like I said, I do this for fun. Want a tough day? Try to explain to a group of 20 high level execs why a game is significantly under plan. Not a whole lot of fun.
OP
OP
Yup. It's driven some of them away in the past.
And what a lot of posters on here don't understand is, insiders and professionals are humans too. They make mistakes. Mistakes don't have to mean there's an agenda.
Weird how you left out my justification right after and then say I'm making stuff up. I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt that I edited it in a few seconds later and you're just really slow to reply. But okay.
Rubber banding (or negative feedback loops) are mechanics designed to close the gap in skill level by punishing good players and rewarding bad players. Like the blue shell in Mario Kart. You can also lower the skill gap by introducing random powerful elements to make it more luck based than skill based. Kart, Party and Smash have these mechanics in spades. Splatoon arguably has a positive feedback loop, where good teams acquire more turf and subsequently also gain more movement perks. I don't know whether you played Arms, but it is slow and methodical and noobs get hammered 10 games out of 10. It doesn't really work for disparate skill levels at a party.
It's because you're disregarding everything he says because he got a past prediction wrong. If you disagree with his current prediction then simply explain why this particular prediction is wrong. Don't pretend he has no credibility because of a previous incorrect prediction. It's silly.
They havn't talked about a bundle yet have they? I wonder if they do a bundle this year with the pokeball that would sell a lot. But you have to admit, last year there wasn't as exciting bundles for holiday. This year you have 3 giant games that will have some sort of bundle and those black friday sales will have consoles at $249-199 or lower. Pokemon and Mario Party are the only games to move hardware until December comes for smash. It really honestly depends on what Nintendo does bundle wise and what they price them at to be honest.
god of war is doing crazy numbers, looking at the chart it looks like it will outsell assassin's creed and other big franchises as well
I think it's due to the December release, and it being an exclusive to one platform. If it came out a month earlier and thus would hit Black Friday, it probably would make the Top 10. It still might, I suppose, but with only a few weeks to do so it will be tough.