Well I'm not getting hung up about that... it is just the statement is confusing.Right. So it's not a fair comparison. So lets not get hung up on it. Both the PS4 and the Switch are doing well. Not everything is a competition.
Well I'm not getting hung up about that... it is just the statement is confusing.Right. So it's not a fair comparison. So lets not get hung up on it. Both the PS4 and the Switch are doing well. Not everything is a competition.
is any one person supposed to represent Era? because I never doubted the Switch to be a success
Yikes. Well..."I think Scorpio has the potential to push Xbox One sales ahead of the PS4 in the US in 2017"
Mat Piscatella, The NPD Group
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....d-outsell-ps4-this-year-thanks-to-scorpio-npd
About the statement "Finally, Nintendo Switch has the second highest time-aligned installed base for a console in history, trailing only the Wii to this point."
You don't see Pokemon Let's Go beating bundles on Black Friday? Hmm. I dunno frankly, but whereas last year the sales were split between both systems, I think this year we'll see convergence of 3DS and Switch crowds onto the Switch this Christmas, so if Switch is selling anything less than monstrous it would be quite surprising.The thing is the time frame those are coming out hurt the push for the hardware. Also if Nintendo isn't doing any kind of bundle for holiday, that is another strike against the sales of the console could achieve in US. Bundles do very well in Europe, UK, US.
I hope to god they thought about a Pokemon bundle. Mario Party is in October, so is Red dead 2, followed by Battlefield. And everyone will be talking, buying still Spiderman bundles from September. Unless there is a pokemon Mario Party bundle for casual audience I really have a hard time believing in MAtt's Prediction.
Pokemon is going to sell gangbusters, especially the pokeball joycon. I see the switch selling well for that game, and doing pretty well for Mario Party. I just don't see a $300+ console beating cheap bundles during Black Friday, our outselling the bundles of Spiderman + RDR2+Battlefield V combo, sorry I just don't.
Especially with data that suggests Switch being outsold by PS4 for most of this year so far. Momentum for Holiday Starts earlier for PS4, and Xbox than it does for Switch. ANd smash being late I feel may not track all the sales that go into Jan-Feb.
Well what?
Cheers, great catch.
I'm asking the team to get that line fixed. Comparing platforms with 2 holidays to another platform with 1 holiday doesn't really make a ton of sense. For some reason my brain flubbed that line. Whoops.
Thanks for the clarification! So the comparison is first 9 months launch-aligned, yes?Line should have read: "Finally, Nintendo Switch had the second highest time-aligned installed base for a console in history through its first holiday, trailing only the Wii to that point."
...Comparing platforms with 2 holidays to another platform with 1 holiday doesn't really make a ton of sense.
Lesson learned. Taking opinions with a grain of salt.Well what?
He was bullish on Xbox based on reasoning and assumptions he has explained since in this thread?
But comparing a console with a launch period + 1 holidays with a console with only 1 launch/holidays period is not fair either. Why accepting one unfair comparaison and not the second one?
Well what?
He was bullish on Xbox based on reasoning and assumptions he has explained since in this thread?
No it would be November to October for the ps4. So its first holidays is also the launch period. The comparison is favoring the switch because it had a launch and an holidays during the first 12 months.It will be the first 9 or 12 months of the launches of the consoles so it takes into account the launch period of every console and also 1 holiday period. An example could be Nov-Nov for PS4 and March-March for Switch.
Mario Odyssey not causal? The game doesn't require you to collect every Moon to reach the credits, the game is super causal with the bare minimum amount of moons necessary to proceed being easy to obtain. Mario is the quintessential causal franchise. You could argue that it's a game that casuals can enjoy but that it has a high ceiling for "hardcore games" or whatever nonsense term people want to use but that describes Smash too, or pretty much everything by Nintendo, including Labo and Kirby, which also has that pesky platforming causal are supposedly stumped by as well as harder difficulties.Mario Odyssey is casual friendly, though ultimately platformers are not causal genres due to skill levels determining how far you can go.
I don't know what you mean by this point.
No more technical than Mario Tennis Aces or Smash. It just seems like you're making up random excuses as to why one game is casual and the next isn't. 2018 is no more causal than 2017, especially with Tropical Freeze and Bayonetta 1+2 added to the mix.Arm sould have been casual focused but they developed it to be way too technical, which is why it never took off.
No it would be November to October for the ps4. So its first holidays is also the launch period. The comparison is favoring the switch because it had a launch and an holidays during the first 12 months
Exactly. So just use the last data or don't dont the comparaison at all. Especially on July, using data from FebruaryAs I have already said in this thread there is no way to have a completely unbiased comparison here.
The comparison still isn't that fair since consoles in launch month and holidays do high numbers and you have the PS4/XB1 both launching in the holidays and facing supplying problems.
Thanks for the clarification! So the comparison is first 9 months launch-aligned, yes?
Exactly. So just use the last data or don't dont the comparaison at all. Especially on July, using data from February
Prediction based on 'numbers' its no a proper prediction.He made a prediction that no one could be certain of either way and ended up being wrong. 'Yikes' indeed.
These sorts of snarky and smarmy comments irk me like not many others do.
Get some perspective and stop making these people's time here more difficult than it should be.
Prediction based on 'numbers' its no a proper prediction.
We can make that because its our guesses, but for a Analyst is more than that.
Don't need to be a genius to see how the thread became now. At him possition his opinion really matters unlike any other era user.
He even already asked to drop the comparison, but was the initial argument of prediction. I like more numbers than assumptions, so thread likes NDP/Pal have more weight.
is any one person supposed to represent Era? because I never doubted the Switch to be a success
Prediction based on 'numbers' its no a proper prediction.
We can make that because its our guesses, but for a Analyst is more than that.
Don't need to be a genius to see how the thread became now. At him possition his opinion really matters unlike any other era user.
He even already asked to drop the comparison, but was the initial argument of prediction. I like more numbers than assumptions, so thread likes NDP/Pal have more weight.
wait, what? what is going on?I see posters with thinly veiled agendas are here to try and imply fanboyism and what not here.
Pro tip, guys: the only fanboys are you. You just get mad when others are not fanboys of the same things as you.
Nothing. People are just overrated my 'yikes' comment. They think I need to agree with your prediction just because you're NPD guy. I like the fun of prediction, until people start to taking too serious.
Because they technically are 2 different games, whether that be the actual content of the games or that they have different sku's.
Literally no one thinks that.Nothing. People are just overrated my 'yikes' comment. They think I need to agree with your prediction just because you're NDP guy.
Nothing. People are just overrated my 'yikes' comment. They think I need to agree with you prediction. I like the fun of prediction, until people start to taking too serious.
in 2014 they count'd smash wii u and Smash 3ds as a single sku, so doesn't make sense
Smash not predicted to be in top 10 software sales for the year? Damn for some reason I doubt that
Indeed are. Lets drop all those stuff. You're still answer questions? How Fortnine are pushing NS? Free to play can push hardwares too.Heck, I'm not even sure I agree with all my predictions. Yep, video game stuff should be fun.
Oh thank god. So lets back to the discussion.
I see posters with thinly veiled agendas are here to try and imply fanboyism and what not here.
Pro tip, guys: the only fanboys are you. You just get mad when others are not fanboys of the same things as you.
He's not the first one in this thread either, is the thing.Yep, exactly. Not sure why Fake feels the need to downplay Mat just because of a previous prediction. This thread sure has some people bothered.
How Fortnine are pushing NS? Free to play can push hardwares too.
Yup. It's driven some of them away in the past.I always feel bad for our insiders. they do such a good job giving us info we aren't entitled to and posters always weaponize them for the Great War
Weird how you left out my justification right after and then say I'm making stuff up. I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt that I edited it in a few seconds later and you're just really slow to reply. But okay.Mario Odyssey not causal? The game doesn't require you to collect every Moon to reach the credits, the game is super causal with the bare minimum amount of moons necessary to proceed being easy to obtain. Mario is the quintessential causal franchise. You could argue that it's a game that casuals can enjoy but that it has a high ceiling for "hardcore games" or whatever nonsense term people want to use but that describes Smash too, or pretty much everything by Nintendo, including Labo and Kirby, which also has that pesky platforming causal are supposedly stumped by as well as harder difficulties.
I don't know what you mean by this point.
No more technical than Mario Tennis Aces or Smash. It just seems like you're making up random excuses as to why one game is casual and the next isn't. 2018 is no more causal than 2017, especially with Tropical Freeze and Bayonetta 1+2 added to the mix.
It's because you're disregarding everything he says because he got a past prediction wrong. If you disagree with his current prediction then simply explain why this particular prediction is wrong. Don't pretend he has no credibility because of a previous incorrect prediction. It's silly.Nothing. People are just overrated my 'yikes' comment. They think I need to agree with your prediction just because you're NPD guy. I like the fun of prediction, until people start to taking too serious.
You don't see Pokemon Let's Go beating bundles on Black Friday? Hmm. I dunno frankly, but whereas last year the sales were split between both systems, I think this year we'll see convergence of 3DS and Switch crowds onto the Switch this Christmas, so if Switch is selling anything less than monstrous it would be quite surprising.
Whether it would make up for the rest of the year is of course anyone's guess.
Looking at that projected chart makes me think "what a dismal year," but also so impressed that Kratos - solely a video game hero - can outsell (or at least potentially outsell) a multimedia juggernaut like Spider-Man. That's wild to me.
Cheers. But really, after sitting in front of some of the execs I've had to in order to advocate for a forecast or show what happened with a title's performance? Like I said, I do this for fun. Want a tough day? Try to explain to a group of 20 high level execs why a game is significantly under plan. Not a whole lot of fun.
I think it's due to the December release, and it being an exclusive to one platform. If it came out a month earlier and thus would hit Black Friday, it probably would make the Top 10. It still might, I suppose, but with only a few weeks to do so it will be tough.Smash not predicted to be in top 10 software sales for the year? Damn for some reason I doubt that