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NPD Blog: Switch Will Be Highest Selling Console This Year in US, Red Dead 2 Top Selling Game

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The NPD Group's Mat Pistacella posted an update on the NPD Blog today. Some quick takeaways:
  • Switch is projected to be the highest selling console of the year (attributed to a strong final quarter thanks to Pokemon and Smash)
  • All three consoles will sell over 4 million units in US this year
  • Cumulatively, the consoles will sell 17.5 million units in the US, leading to the highest total in the market since 2012
  • By year's end, installed base of the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One will exceed that of the PlayStation 2 and Xbox by 6 percent and will be ahead of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 by at least 30 percent for their respective equivalent time periods
  • In spite of the doom and gloom, physical video game software dollar sales will finish the year with growth of at least 8 percent when compared to a year ago, while digital full-game sales will continue to grow at double digit percentage rates.
  • Fortnite continues to drive growth and revenue
  • PS4 is selling above expectations
  • The Xbox One has shown very strong growth so far this year and is on pace to have the highest time-aligned annual growth rate for console unit sales since the Xbox 360 in 2010.
Plus, you can see the projected Top 10 software sales below:

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My assumption (and I believe Mat confirmed this earlier in an NPD thread) is that Pokemon is not on there because it splits across two SKUs, while Smash is not on there because it launches on December 7, so far too late to do anything.
 
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Cess007

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Oct 27, 2017
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I saw this on the morning when Matt posted it. Interestig prediction, but the best thing, it's that it seems that Holiday wil definately be very strong for every console maker. Everyone over 4m by years end it's damn good.
 
Rowsdower

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So this might be one of the best years in gaming for all three.

What a time to be alive.

Also love that physical increased by 8%, even with the advance of digital.

Edit: So Mat predicts Call of Duty over Battlefield? I was thinking they would flip this year.
 
Knight613

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This is for US only right? Not worldwide?

I guess most of that would check out, although the PS4 is still outselling the Switch so far this year...
 
Terraforce

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This will be freaking amazing if true. Crazy how much of a stark contrast the Switch is compared to the Wii U. Year one proved that, but this year seems like it'll drive that point home.

Will be interesting to see how much of this lines up accurately at the end of the year.
 
BlueManifest

BlueManifest

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If Sony does another one of those 200$ ps4 deals in November I think it will be close
 
Mory Dunz

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Smash will make top 10 imo.


Doubt the Switch will sell the most this year. Maybe. But I expect PS4 to have better discounts.

How far behind the PS4 is it YTD?
That gap will grow too before November
 
DecoReturns

DecoReturns

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If Nintendo didn't split Pokémon. I wonder where it would land.

Still looks like everyone is gonna be a winner this year as well.
 
Wololo

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Im so happy Nintendo has come back with Switch. Looked pretty grim for a while following the Wii U.
 
Cess007

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This remind me, I'm surprised that there's no prediction to Labo. It's because it's so hard to predict? Or 'cause is just a non-factor on the Switch? I've seen several people predicting a very good Holiday due it's nature as a toy for kids.
 
tolkir

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Top 10 is that way because Nintendo doesn't give digital numbers. Smash and Pokemon would be easily there with digital sales info.
 

Deleted member 6730

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God of War was huge and I expect Spider-Man to be just as big so maybe PS4 edges out the Switch.
 
jacks81x

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Pretty solid predictions overall. I think the variable will be what kind of sales we'll see during the holidays. Switch will sell gangbuster regardless because of Pokemon and Smash. It'll be interesting to see what kind of bundles Sony and MS will offer to push hardware sales. Spidey and Red Dead 2 Pro bundles seem like no-brainers for Sony. I can see MS countering with Forza and BFV bundles.
 
mindsale

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Looking at that projected chart makes me think "what a dismal year," but also so impressed that Kratos - solely a video game hero - can outsell (or at least potentially outsell) a multimedia juggernaut like Spider-Man. That's wild to me.
 
Stowaway Silfer

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So would Spider-Man be under God of War and Monster Hunter World because of less time on the market than both and fewer consoles than Monster Hunter?
 
BoxManLocke

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Spiderman/RDR2 vs Pokémon/Smash.

PS4 should easily take September and October and Switch the two months after that. Whoever ends up on top, I think this is going to be very close.
 
Mory Dunz

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I have no idea what to expect for Fallout 76, but the consensus is it's going to be huge I suppose.

How much does madden still pull each calendar year?
3 million?
4 million?
 
Welfare

Welfare

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Oct 26, 2017
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On hardware I'm thinking

Switch: >6M
PS4: ~5M
XB1: >4M

Switch should see a massive boost in November thanks to Pokemon and Nintendo consoles ALWAYS sell amazing numbers in December. People need to remember Nintendo does fantastic in Q4 because of Christmas gifts.
 
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