NPD October 2017: Shadow of War #1 SW, Nintendo Switch #1 HW

chromatic9 · Nov 17, 2017

Wolfenstein felt so low key compared to the previous big return 2014 and the stand alone follow up in 2015. That's 3 Wolfenstein games in a little over 3 years and I think there should even be a long break between just 2 Wolfenstein to build the thirst again.

Seahawk64 · Nov 17, 2017

Fularu said:
Gran Turismo's fall from grace is really impressive tbh

They need to stop wasting all their time on replays and photomode and start focusing on actual career/campaign mode and ppl will start buying the game again.

Deleted member 2772 · Nov 17, 2017

John Harker said:
Morder. Maybe I'm cross eyed, but it's only ahead in Rev because of ASP? Odyssey way outsold it

So Mario Odyssey was the highest selling game of the month in units then? Good to know.

reirom · Nov 17, 2017

Vgs need to retun to be 2d only Snes sucess Am prove of this . A killer new 2d vg with new games will be a sucess

Hellwarden · Nov 17, 2017

It wouldn't surprise me if TEW2 and Wolf do end up bombing.

Saw very little advertising for either.

cakely · Nov 17, 2017

FM7 beats GTS. I did not expect that, especially after the UK results.

I know that FM7 had a few weeks of sales but since new game sales are front-loaded it shouldn't make a difference.

It's really too bad, because Polyphony tried something new with GTS, and what's there is of excellent quality. I assume we won't see an experiment like this again.

GrimBorne said:
...

That was one awful post, thank you moderators.

Bitch Pudding · Nov 17, 2017

John Harker said:
I don't know how I feel about this month.
I feel like everything is.... down. With the full software month being down like 15% yoy, it shows. Switch should have done way better, kind of strange Mario wasn't really a factor in moving units. Is it sold out? Haven't really been paying attention.

Heard that noise? It's the sound my prediction makes when it goes down the tube...

Mr.Flufferson · Nov 17, 2017

Virtua said:
I really hope machine games can finish out their plans for a wllfenstein trilogy.

They make my favorite games of this generation and they deserve success. It's just so difficult for a linear story shooter to make a dent in a month full of giant open world playgrounds and the typical nba/WWE/FIFA fodder.

Also weird to see shadow of war on top. All.the middling to bad impressions and reviews and controversy couldn't stop the marketing and hype machine. I totally forgot about it at this point.

I don't think many people are willing to drop $60 on roughly 10 hour single player experiences anymore. I do however, think they are willing to pay $40 or under for these types of games. Even if wolfenstein doesn't sell alot right at launch, I do think as it drops in price more people will pick it up. If wolfenstein isn't considered a success right now, I'm sure by the end of its life cycle it will have sold enough to warrant a sequel.

Also I agree about shadow of war. I mean the game looks really fun to me, but I always hate to see aggressive microtransactions and predatory lootbox systems be rewarded.

Deleted member 3769 · Nov 17, 2017

Any news on how doom switch sold?

Kill3r7 · Nov 17, 2017

chromatic9 said:
Wolfenstein felt so low key compared to the previous big return 2014 and the stand alone follow up in 2015. That's 3 Wolfenstein games in a little over 3 years and I think there should even be a long break between just 2 Wolfenstein to build the thirst again.

Maybe. Bethesda will have to figure out if they want to conclude the trilogy this gen or have it come out at the start of next gen. Wolf2 looks to have sold rather poorly. $60 linear SP experience are becoming a harder sell with each passing year.

Deleted member 3017 · Nov 17, 2017

Maxrunner said:
Any news on how doom switch sold?

DOOM isn't a part of this month's report. It released in November.

Gotdatmoney · Nov 17, 2017

Wonder if stock is a factor on Switch. If it was the best selling system and it's low then maybe this Oct was just a weak hardware month for some reason. Could also be the consolidation towards Nov-Dec huge sales we have been seeing over the last few years.

Benji · Nov 17, 2017

Gotdatmoney said:
Wonder if stock is a factor on Switch. If it was the best selling system and it's low then maybe this Oct was just a weak hardware month for some reason. Could also be the consolidation towards Nov-Dec huge sales we have been seeing over the last few years.

Stock is zero issue. Even currently in November. Nintendo simply sold through what demand was in October which is pretty leveled off with how it' been selling recently.

That said expect a big uptick in November. Even before BF hits it's selling at a better weekly rate than it did during October

Thorrgal · Nov 17, 2017

WestEgg said:
Hmm, so less than 160K gap once October numbers are known. I think Xbox One X is going to eat into PS4 more than Switch, guess Black Friday is the big question. Switch won't get a discount, and PS4 will get a $100 one. But Switch will be THE hottest Christmas Gift this year. December is a dead month (Xenoblade looks good but it's not pushing consoles imo), and November only saw third party Switch released, albeit big ones. Also Mario momentum. I think that if Switch has stock it can win, and it should have a good amount. But if Sony buries November in Black Friday sales, then December may not be enough to climb back.

I'll give Switch 80% chance to be the best selling system of 2017.

I think PS4 will win thanks to the $199 price tag

ArkhamFantasy · Nov 17, 2017

Kill3r7 said:
Maybe. Bethesda will have to figure out if they want to conclude the trilogy this gen or have it come out at the start of next gen. Wolf2 looks to have sold rather poorly. $60 linear SP experience are becoming a harder sell with each passing year.

Evil Within 2 has open areas that you can play around in, its not strictly a linear game.

Obviously that wasnt enough though, people seem to really want multiplayer or big open worlds.

Deleted member 3017 · Nov 17, 2017

Benji said:
That said expect a big uptick in November. Even before BF hits it's selling at a better weekly rate than it did during October

Well, that's great news.

BGA · Nov 17, 2017

Not surprised about sales data for Gran Tursimo Sport. I said that driving games other than Mario Kart are not a successful genre anymore. While Grab Tursimo 7 would had sold more than Sport, it still would had sold less that even Gran Tursimo 6 due to significant decline in sim racing games

Also, sad that Wolf 2 bombed, but not surprising. Hopefully this was the final wake up call from Bestheda for these kinds of games.

Kill3r7 · Nov 17, 2017

ArkhamFantasy said:
Evil Within 2 has open areas that you can play around in, its not strictly a linear game.

Obviously that wasnt enough though, people seem to really want multiplayer or big open worlds.

Agreed, although I was specifically talking about Wolf2. TEW2 is fighting a whole other battle because of its genre. RE7 did okay but outside of that what was the last horror game that sold really well, TEW and Friday the 13th.

Deleted member 19739 · Nov 17, 2017

NPD doesn't track the entire month, right? So, the Mario sales only includes a couple of days?

Heshinsi · Nov 17, 2017

Nirolak said:
It does, but it also generally beats Forza everywhere IIRC.

True, but a two week head start is still a two week head start.

Deleted member 3017 · Nov 17, 2017

Smellycat said:
NPD doesn't track the entire month, right? So, the Mario sales only includes a couple of days?

Tracking was from Oct. 1-28. So, two days for Mario, Wolf, and AC.

Dr. Dre's Dr. · Nov 17, 2017

I have seen more Switch consoles on shelves recently so I am eager to see what numbers it does in Nov and Dec. It seems in the short term they are catching up a little bit with demand but the holidays will blow that out anyways. I am mostly curious to see if Switch does completely sell out (I think it will) will parents and other purchasers get an Xbox or Playstation so kids still have a console to open on Christmas. I am also beginning to wonder if the only thing that could finally knock GTAV off the list is GTA VI, what a monster. Does anyone know if that game has the longest time on the charts yet? I know it somewhat recently beat sales records.

Gotdatmoney · Nov 17, 2017

Benji said:
Stock is zero issue. Even currently in November. Nintendo simply sold through what demand was in October which is pretty leveled off with how it' been selling recently.

That said expect a big uptick in November. Even before BF hits it's selling at a better weekly rate than it did during October

Okay, that's useful info to know. Do you have any speculation as to why hardware was relatively soft this year compared to last year? You would think with a new system on the market you would see a good uptick YOY but we saw the opposite.

Benji · Nov 17, 2017

Gotdatmoney said:
Okay, that's useful info to know. Do you have any speculation as to why hardware was relatively soft this year compared to last year? You would think with a new system on the market you would see a good uptick YOY but we saw the opposite.

Hardware is up YoY so I'm thinking you mean software being soft.

In regards to that it's a few things. Difficult comp compred to last year's BF1 launch, and the games that did do very well (Mario and Creed) came at the very end of the month and only have a couple days of tracking. It for sure doesn' help things that both Wolf 2 and EW2 performed frankly poorly.

Exoect very strong holds for AC Origins and Mario Odyssey next month

Sander VF · Nov 17, 2017

Benji said:
Stock is zero issue. Even currently in November. Nintendo simply sold through what demand was in October which is pretty leveled off with how it' been selling recently.

That said expect a big uptick in November. Even before BF hits it's selling at a better weekly rate than it did during October

Could October level of demand be standard for the system going forward or is it too early to tell?

If it is, is that good place for Switch to be?

Hesemonni · Nov 17, 2017

Sammy Samusu said:
Why wow? Did I miss something?

I have no idea how well it did in the grand scheme of things, but I'm just glad to see niche game like that charting.

Zukkoyaki · Nov 17, 2017

Mr.Flufferson said:
Also I agree about shadow of war. I mean the game looks really fun to me, but I always hate to see aggressive microtransactions and predatory lootbox systems be rewarded.

The Microtransactions in Shadow of War are neither aggressive or predatory. They're about as tacked on and benign as possible.

DeathyG · Nov 17, 2017

Curious to see how PSVR is going to do. I plan on getting the Skyrim bundle.

Bundles are already going OoS at Amazon UK.

Benji · Nov 17, 2017

Sander VF said:
Could October level of demand be standard for the system going forward or is it too early to tell?

If it is, is that good place for Switch to be?

Still too early to call.

What I do feel comfortable saying though is the last couple month we saw what demand level currently is for the system. It wasn't a case of Nintendo selling everything they ship but instead what consumer volume looked like. Still very good numbers especially compared to Wii U. Now why we are seeing a level off is anyone's guess.

Still though let's see how November and December play out. November is looking very good for it

Gotdatmoney · Nov 17, 2017

Benji said:
Hardware is up YoY so I'm thinking you mean software being soft.

I messed up reading Harker's post as hardware as software. So much of what I said is messed up/wrong as a result :(

Your insight is still useful though!!

In regards to that it's a few things. Difficult comp compred to last year's BF1 launch, and the games that did do very well (Mario and Creed) came at the very end of the month and only have a couple days of tracking. It for sure doesn' help things that both Wolf 2 and EW2 performed frankly poorly.

Exoect very strong holds for AC Origins and Mario Odyssey next month

Yeah this makes sense. I don't know if you know this or are allowed to divulge this but in the NPD report are units broken out as digital and physical or is it all reported as one value?

Also, another question is do you see significantly more movement on single player only titles (AAA titles mainly) after they go through their first major price reduction?

I'm curious if there is a trend here. You would think that you would almost budget your title for this if its common knowledge.

Parenegade · Nov 17, 2017

I know War was on sale for a lot longer than Origins but that seems like a shame it outsold it regardless.

Caiops · Nov 17, 2017

How well Origins did if you compare with Syndicate?

Somnia · Nov 17, 2017

I'm really curious where Wolf 2 and EW2 would end up if Bethesda gave them Digital #'s. I know I know the old "digital" talk, but it seems like digital is hitting that 30-40% mark more regularly now.

LittleTokyo · Nov 17, 2017

I'm surprised to see SOW out Forzaing Forza 7 on a Microsoft platform. I'm also surprised and happy to see Warriors in the top 20..

Benji · Nov 17, 2017

Gotdatmoney said:
Also, another question is do you see significantly more movement on single player only titles (AAA titles mainly) after they go through their first major price reduction?

I'm curious if there is a trend here. You would think that you would almost budget your title for this if its common knowledge.

Yes. My advice to a publisher / developer making a single player focused game would be the following. To have a successful product on the market you need to either keep budget costs low, go open world, or have a VERY strong hook. You can't Just push out a single player narrative linear game anymore without an open world or a strong hook that you can push well through marketing.

Somnia said:
I'm really curious where Wolf 2 and EW2 would end up if Bethesda gave them Digital #'s. I know I know the old "digital" talk, but it seems like digital is hitting that 30-40% mark more regularly now.

It wouldn't help them much tbh. Both ranked very poorly on the PSN best sellers charts

Aaron D. · Nov 17, 2017

cakely said:
FM7 beats GTS. I did not expect that, especially after the UK results.

I know that FM7 had a few weeks of sales but since new game sales are front-loaded it shouldn't make a difference.

It's really too bad, because Polyphony tried something new with GTS, and what's there is of excellent quality. I assume we won't see an experiment like this again.

I appreciate Polyphony's big push for clean driving online ala iRacing on PC, but it feels like they did it at the expense of virtually everything else. That's the real shame for me.

Don't think I've ever seen such a bare-bones GT title, not only in the franchise but in the overall sim racing genre to boot.

Personally I don't think such an extreme downturn in content is worthy of reward. Esp. after such a long dev cycle.

John Harker · Nov 17, 2017

Soony Xbone Uhh said:
I read your comment as Switch doing less than 400k. Probably even less than 350k. But it can't be sub 300k, right?

Oh it can.
Just a little

Skittzo · Nov 17, 2017

OrbitalBeard said:
Continued software momentum in 2018 is going to be really important for Nintendo. I think Red Dead Redemption 2 is going to be a potentially huge roadblock for the system next year. That game is going to be massive, have the mindshare of the industry at large, and Nintendo won't be a part of that conversation at all.

Sounds like I'm all "doom and gloom", but not really. I just hope they have some big titles for the first half of 2018 to keep the pace up.

Yeah continued momentum is certainly of the utmost importance but unless Nintendo suddenly lost their minds (again) they almost have to have adequate software to back up a 25-30M unit production number.

Anyway, if leveled off demand looks like 300-400k in slower months then that's still not bad at all. EDIT: Oh wow, so less than 300k? Interesting.

CommodoreKong · Nov 17, 2017

Squiddo said:
Zelda being 2nd on Switch surprises me this is gonna be the best selling Zelda game ever probably. Only Ocarina of Time and Twilight Princess managed to sell over 10m and that is with all versions combined over years. BotW probably will hit that within a few or so easily.

But honestly it kinda is the Mario 64 of the Zelda series or well the second one since OoT:P so it makes sense, it's just that good. If they are smart release a full content/GOTY edition in mid 2018.

It does seem like Zelda has the potential to become the Switch's GTA V where we see a large number of new Switch owners pick it up with the system.

Pitchfork · Nov 17, 2017

Shadow of War is my GOTY, happy for its success!

Skittzo · Nov 17, 2017

John Harker said:
Oh it can.
Just a little

Wait, does that add up? Nintendo's PR said that Switch outsold SNES Classic, and that Switch plus 3DS plus SNES Classic > 666k (two thirds of over 1M). So let's say Switch did 290k, even if SNES Classic did 280k that would mean the 3DS had to do over 96k. Does the 3DS still sell that well?

Mpl90 · Nov 17, 2017

John Harker said:
Oh it can.
Just a little

Between 290k to 300k I assume. Very good but not as spectacular as we might've thought due to Odyssey. Again, going by Benji's words as well, I think NPD tracking just the first two days muted whatever effect it had.

Puroresu_kid · Nov 17, 2017

Continued software momentum in 2018 is going to be really important for Nintendo. I think Red Dead Redemption 2 is going to be a potentially huge roadblock for the system next year. That game is going to be massive, have the mindshare of the industry at large, and Nintendo won't be a part of that conversation at all.

Sounds like I'm all "doom and gloom", but not really. I just hope they have some big titles for the first half of 2018 to keep the pace up.

Remember GTAIV was supposed to do that to the Wii and the Wii blew past PS3/360 combined that month.

Deleted member 4976 · Nov 17, 2017

290-300k for Switch? Not bad but certainly lower than I think many predicted.

Wonder where the PS4 landed.

The Iron Weasel · Nov 17, 2017

I'm hoping the Wolfenstein has a long tail and it picked up after those first four days. It deserves better.

Jraphics Horse · Nov 17, 2017

skittzo0413 said:
Wait, does that add up? Nintendo's PR said that Switch outsold SNES Classic, and that Switch plus 3DS plus SNES Classic > 666k (two thirds of over 1M). So let's say Switch did 290k, even if SNES Classic did 280k that would mean the 3DS had to do over 96k. Does the 3DS still sell that well?

maybe

290k Swi
270k SNES
200k PS4
130k XB1
110k 3DS

*this is a guess*

Puroresu_kid · Nov 17, 2017

Jraphics Horse said:
290k Swi
270k SNES
200k PS4
130k XB1
110k 3DS

3DS still trucking nicely.

Skittzo · Nov 17, 2017

Wow, I really didn't think the 3DS was still selling that much in the west. I guess the low prices help.

Oh, those are guesses. Well yeah I suppose it's definitely possible, I just had no idea the 3DS was still doing ~100k in non holiday months.

WestEgg · Nov 17, 2017

Jraphics Horse said:
290k Swi
270k SNES
200k PS4
130k XB1
110k 3DS

maybe

Are these actual numbers or a guess? I saw the maybe, but wasn't sure.

Mpl90 · Nov 17, 2017

...I don't think those are actual numbers, just Jraphic Horse's estimate of a scenario where Switch at 290k, Nintendo at 667k and overall hardware sales at 1,000,000 might make sense :P

NPD October 2017: Shadow of War #1 SW, Nintendo Switch #1 HW

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