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Game of Thrones Mafia - We're All Bastards Here
- Thread starter Natiko
- Start date
Where I'm at right now is basically between nin and Meatwad. I've been back and forth on Kits/ET, sometimes I'm leaning scum sometimes town. With nin and Meatwad though, I feel more confident in them being scum. Meatwad has had some moments where I've felt towny vibes, but I don't think I've ever felt that from CeeCee/nin, so I'm just going to put my vote down on nin for now.
Vote: nin
Vote: nin
Semantics arguments, catches on phrasing, all that can be really key but so far the things that have happened - nin, Meatwad, feps - all feel like folks trying to look busy without doing any real work. None of them are particularly damning. One was affective and not out of character, one was a typo, one was also affected. The typo could have been a slip, but the others just feel like filling in for real content.
Did you see my analyses on these two also? I'm inclined to agree after those, though I want to finish my other analyses before I vote, and see if I can get some order in my lynch pool.
First group is kits and the votes on her. If she's town, most likely a scum there. Second group is the exo votes. Very likely there's another one in those votes. Most likely indy/trigger. Blarg is the only scum flipped there but he was last vote and one of the other wagons so scum stacking in this case makes sense.
Day 4, fan and no lynch were both fine. Faddy and i both put out reasons for why zeusy was almost definitely town.
Day 5, the gog votes. But these are less important imo because gog was a clear enough lynch imo that it was safe enough to pop into blarg without too much worry.
My vote is probably going to be on extreme tactician because we learn the most. I'm almost certain trigger is scum though, so also want to go there but no one seems to be interested for some reason
Yes I did, and I agree with them. They both are just giving off a lot of scum vibes and there are some strange votes.
The one thing I keep noticing about Meatwad is how he likes to pop in and agree with someone else quick, and then disappears for a while. Doesn't really offer his own takes much. He even said to me yesterday that he was thinking in his mind that he was between GOG and Blarg on D5, but he never shared those thoughts with us in the thread. All he ever said was that he scum read Giant Panda, then he voted GOG. Didn't mention Blarg once, so how can I buy that he was actually debating between the two? And if he scum read GP, well there were two votes on him, why not make it three? Strange stuff on D5 for sure.
Yeah, I agree with that. If it's not in the thread, it basically doesn't exist. But there seems to be a lot of "in my head" stuff going around and I think we need everyone to be very transparent about how they're getting to conclusions/ideas.
I meant these posts. No I'm not sure if you were the very first person to bring up nin but you were clearly pushing for nin especially early on when it was pretty much you, you even acknowledged it in one of your posts here.
To be clear this doesn't mean Nin is town, I think he's made some scummy play. I just think you've been scummy too Monkey so I'd be slightly more willing to lynch someone like Meatwad.
I get what you mean, but I think the problem with your logic here is that I'm pretty sure Dr. Monkey is perfectly fine with a Meatwad lynch too based on what I was just talking about with her.
Yeah she's fine with it, but she was definitely pushing harder for Nin(much much harder then for Meatwad).
Do you think they are scummates then? If so, would it not be a better strategy for her to bus nin?
Regardless though, I can see where you are coming from but for me Nin is a scum and a disruptive one at that, he is like a light version of Blarg.
Not only his and ceecee gameplay are scummy as hell but we arrived at a point of the game where I consider anyone using gimmicks a liability and most definitely a scum.
If Monkey is a scum like your theory imply would it not be the best for her to bus nin at this point in the game? When Nin Flips scum, she will look better right?
Thus she is either town for going after nin or scum for going after nin, regardless of what she does, it doesn't gain her anything one way or another in my opinion.
Unless of course you don't actually consider nin scum but according to your theory you do. So it's a moot point.
So you don't know who did it first or when but you've decided I'm scum so you're focusing only on my posts? How's that scumhunting exactly?
And are you ever going to talk to me about why you didn't vote the day it was Blarg vs Gotham? You didn't answer those posts. I'll repost them if you'd like.
nin is my top choice, but I think there's a reasonable chance with Meatwad as well, yes. Like you, I think it's difficult to gauge Meatwad - are there just gaps or are these inconsistencies? But there's no reason to repost my whole analysis here, either.
Did you read my analyses? There's literally more reason to scumread nin. It's not an either/or. They could both be scum. But right now, I think nin is my strongest scumread on the board, but I have to finish you and kits/ET, and figure out how I feel about Indy/Trigger, who is a no-show today.
It's been later. You said again that you'd respond, too; you haven't. I keep rereading this post, trying to figure out if Kopite honestly didn't know what I meant or just avoided the question, but to clarify: you did not vote the first day, after day one, when Blarg was a viable candidate, so I struggle with believe your determination to get rid of him.
For this, you'll have to go back to to the original post for the quotes; quoting again doesn't grab them:
The day ended a little early, but you've had this whole phase and you haven't answered. Why?
Is this yet another of your mind games?
And should I even say that you are contradicting yourself yet again? Do I even need to link your read list anymore?
Sorry I've been buys and too tired to curate a long answer. If I'm alive tomorrow I will. My biggest reason for not doing it is laziness and the my belief that if you were town you woulddnt even be making these arguments agaisnt me.
You claimed you had a strong scumread against Blarg and wanted him gone all game but you didn't vote when he was a candidate and you had the chance. It's not complicated. I'm not creating anything. It's right there. Please explain what is scummy about me following up and asking you what the reason was? I want to see your thought process.
Hey, Faddy, do you think for a minute you could actually look at Kopite's behavior and not the one vote you think clears him? Could you reassess at all here?
Indy's an odd one for analysis. D1 he was involved, lots of joking, but his Exodus vote is a little weird.
He votes without reason and Faddy calls him out, where he says:
He considers Blarg but never moves the vote D1.
D2 he is not part of the Splinter turbo.
D3 he voted melon early but ostensibly unvotes to "see what happens" when Faddy suggests we wait. He did not vote again.
D4 he posted very little and did not participate in the thunderdome.
D5 he was gone.
D6 Trigger jumped on the Blarg vote but there's no way to read that, and D7 so far, Trigger is a no show.
This slot is a complete blank. All we know is that he claimed vanilla town.
He votes without reason and Faddy calls him out, where he says:
He considers Blarg but never moves the vote D1.
He says this later (in another phase) to explain the Exodus vote, but the earlier post was the only one in which he explained the vote that I saw.
D2 he is not part of the Splinter turbo.
D3 he voted melon early but ostensibly unvotes to "see what happens" when Faddy suggests we wait. He did not vote again.
D4 he posted very little and did not participate in the thunderdome.
D5 he was gone.
D6 Trigger jumped on the Blarg vote but there's no way to read that, and D7 so far, Trigger is a no show.
This slot is a complete blank. All we know is that he claimed vanilla town.
The Indy/Trigger slot goes beyond mafia-lowposting and into a space that's more likely to be town but just a complete and total blank and taking it to endgame is a big roll of the dice. I'm hesitant to vote there since we don't know the gamestate, but the point needs to be made.
I suppose you could make an argument that mafia dominated through outside action in early game so they could possibly sacrifice a member through sheer nonparticipation and cycling through replacements (at this rate, Trigger too may be replaced) but that's frankly garbage strategy and I hope that's not the case. I'd then veer toward town, but it's dangerous unless there's a new replacement who participates.
I suppose you could make an argument that mafia dominated through outside action in early game so they could possibly sacrifice a member through sheer nonparticipation and cycling through replacements (at this rate, Trigger too may be replaced) but that's frankly garbage strategy and I hope that's not the case. I'd then veer toward town, but it's dangerous unless there's a new replacement who participates.
Play the game as a game and not just another episode of Faddy's Always Right.
kitsunelaine's vote analysis will take the longest because it's just a mess. There are scattered votes all over the place. Driving home and then will finish that one up before EoD.
You have been scummy all game. Your day 1 off wagon vote and the ridiculous defense of it. You have constantly been wrong, have made unreasonable arguments for me being a neutral and melon being scum, you have said you are a PR but haven't claimed. Voting GoG over Blarg.
No one really thinks you have been town.
Now you are picking around kopite and indy instead of digging into FEP which is what ton monkey would be doing here.
Claim your PR. Or did you lie?
Because ur follow up flies in the face of logic. Anyone reading posts would know I'm against blarg, you omittedd several of my anti blarg posts in your revoew andd you deliberately ignored my inital posts pointing it out. That's pretty scummy
VOTE: Dr. Monkey
I was going to wait till my longer post, but running out of time and Monkey's insistence on scumreading despite the obvious logic and evidence to the contrary i'm jsut gonna vote her. I think she was spooked when I called her out for trying to pocket Zeke D1, and she's been worried ever since especially since I never dropped that and how I've become more established in town since.
I was going to wait till my longer post, but running out of time and Monkey's insistence on scumreading despite the obvious logic and evidence to the contrary i'm jsut gonna vote her. I think she was spooked when I called her out for trying to pocket Zeke D1, and she's been worried ever since especially since I never dropped that and how I've become more established in town since.
Who do you think is most likely to be scum between Dr. Monkey, Kits/ET, Meatwad, or Nin today?
I would still say Nin. For the rest I would say Meatwad > Kits/ET > Dr. Monkey.
Now, how many scum do we think are left in the game?
If there are 3 left, I would say that Blarg probably didn't recruit anyone and they started with 4 with the chance to grow to 6 if he was able to target 2 vanilla's by the end of N2.
If there are more than 3 left, then Blarg probably recruited someone. And if you ask me, I think the most likely target for that recruitment is Dr. Monkey. Put yourself in Blargonaut's shoes (I know, but please, just try) on D1. If you had that power, and you wanted to really get a good player on your scum team, who do you target first? Now I know I'm just a newb here, but I would target the fuck out of Dr. Monkey with that ability. If she's vanilla, then fucking jackpot, you just got Dr. Monkey on to the scum team. Dr. Monkey has been cagey about claiming her role, she threw shade at mine when I came out with it by saying her's is certainly better than my hypnotize but still not that useful and was a one shot, but still hasn't told us what it is. The fact she said that on the day we were certainly going to lynch Blarg and learn about his recruitment role is kind of suspect. Yes, I also realize that me coming out with mine on that day is suspect, but I would argue that I at least claimed the whole role and provided you with what I did with it and the evidence is all there to support my claim. Dr. Monkey hasn't told us anything yet other than that we shouldn't be thinking of her as vanilla town, no sir, anything but that.
Now, all that being said, I don't like the vote on Dr. Monkey today. I think there are much more likely to be scum candidates, and until we hit a town member I don't think there's any reason to go for a Monkey vote really unless the math starts to get us into that end-game territory, but I think that would require a mis-lynch from us first.
I would still say Nin. For the rest I would say Meatwad > Kits/ET > Dr. Monkey.
Now, how many scum do we think are left in the game?
If there are 3 left, I would say that Blarg probably didn't recruit anyone and they started with 4 with the chance to grow to 6 if he was able to target 2 vanilla's by the end of N2.
If there are more than 3 left, then Blarg probably recruited someone. And if you ask me, I think the most likely target for that recruitment is Dr. Monkey. Put yourself in Blargonaut's shoes (I know, but please, just try) on D1. If you had that power, and you wanted to really get a good player on your scum team, who do you target first? Now I know I'm just a newb here, but I would target the fuck out of Dr. Monkey with that ability. If she's vanilla, then fucking jackpot, you just got Dr. Monkey on to the scum team. Dr. Monkey has been cagey about claiming her role, she threw shade at mine when I came out with it by saying her's is certainly better than my hypnotize but still not that useful and was a one shot, but still hasn't told us what it is. The fact she said that on the day we were certainly going to lynch Blarg and learn about his recruitment role is kind of suspect. Yes, I also realize that me coming out with mine on that day is suspect, but I would argue that I at least claimed the whole role and provided you with what I did with it and the evidence is all there to support my claim. Dr. Monkey hasn't told us anything yet other than that we shouldn't be thinking of her as vanilla town, no sir, anything but that.
Now, all that being said, I don't like the vote on Dr. Monkey today. I think there are much more likely to be scum candidates, and until we hit a town member I don't think there's any reason to go for a Monkey vote really unless the math starts to get us into that end-game territory, but I think that would require a mis-lynch from us first.
I'm not deliberately ignoring anything and it doesn't matter if you posted about him 500 times, to be honest. You are utterly refusing to answer why you didn't vote when Blarg was a lynch candidate.
Why? Because Faddy has made up his mind and refuses to look at anything else? Because nin is opening buddying him? Because Kopite refuses to answer questions and is just voting me because I called him out?
I soft claimed because you asked for claims and it's not a bad idea at this point but my PR has some utility yet. But I'm not vanilla and couldn't be recruited. Do you think I should claim?
My saying it's better wasn't shade, either. I was asked if it was more useful than your one shot and I said it was. You yourself complained about it.
Because if it provides evidence of you being townie, then we can move to a more likely scum target. And at this point in the game, I dont think there's much value in hiding it anymore.
Honestly, with the way half the game is sitting around just repeating what other people are saying, and the way scum has dominated through town mistakes, there is no reason for me to be re-reading and combing back through the thread if I was scum. It's ridiculous. Faddy refuses to look at anything from any new angles; he started that way and one he was confirmed, and once melon flipped, he's decided he cannot be wrong (and has ignored what he was wrong about). nin is openly, blatantly copying him for cred; Kopite won't answer questions, and several people are tunneling the claimed doctor, for heaven's sake, but if you want to lynch me, be my guest. I'm gonna try to finish this analysis on kits/ET and then I'll see what y'all have decided since it's not like anyone's actually listening to me anyway. Y'all choose.
You continuing to push on this, depite missing my obvious posts mentioning why, just increases your scuminess in my eyes.
Simple explanation, just after 2 posts you quoted me on before. But no, you never brought this one up did you.
I mean, if you think asking for claims yesterday wasn't a bad idea, then I don't see why you shouldn't claim it today. Unless it's a really powerful role that could literally change the game like giving us a red check or killing someone, but other than that I don't see how something with some utility but not enough for the scum team to be afraid of it is something worth keeping hidden still.
As for the shade-throwing, that was how I remembered it, and looking back, I can still read it that way.
FEPs asks if your's is better or worse than my role because mine is "the most glaringly useless claim of the game so far".
You say your's is "way better" and that you are shocked I kept it hidden this long.
I see that as you agreeing with FEPs that my claim is worthy of suspicion, but that your's shouldn't be, even though all you do is assert that it is way better than mine without actually telling us what it is. As far as I can tell, that claim is the most glaringly useless claim of the game so far, not mine. At least mine let's you know where the hypnosis came from, your's is just to make us think you aren't vanilla.
The kits/ET analysis requires a lot more context than the others and even then there's a lot missing when looking at just votes. I would put nin and ET at equal odds today - these two are my top scum picks, and I'd put them far ahead of the others I've analyzed. nin and ET, and their predecessors, are both scummy for different reasons, but taken together, too, I can see them as teamed.
One of the few times Blarg actually did anything concrete in the game, he said he'd shoot kits. It's interesting because it comes d2 when there's basically a set lynch, so it's safe but does he fake-bus here? This is the one thing giving me pause.
This exchange with Splinter made him pay more attention to her.
I don't know that this exchange really means anything - I don't put the same weight on Splinter being right or wrong as Faddy does - but kits is overexplaining and that may be scum indicative. I say may because it's not conclusive, but things get weird after this.
I'm in favor of a nin or ET lynch today.
This Blarg vote was weak and has been mentioned often as possible bus, it especially now that we know he was scum, it sticks out. Day two gets more complicated, with the Splinter red check. There's some other commentary here that is relevant, I think:
This is where Splinter voted for her. I also want to point out:
One of the few times Blarg actually did anything concrete in the game, he said he'd shoot kits. It's interesting because it comes d2 when there's basically a set lynch, so it's safe but does he fake-bus here? This is the one thing giving me pause.
This exchange with Splinter made him pay more attention to her.
I don't know that this exchange really means anything - I don't put the same weight on Splinter being right or wrong as Faddy does - but kits is overexplaining and that may be scum indicative. I say may because it's not conclusive, but things get weird after this.
This makes me think that kits just being extra may be part of her whole... identity? self? I dunno how to phrase it, but this has that same air of overexplaining, so it may just be her. However, she started really going after Faddy, and there was just no good reason to do so.
Especially since the same day she tried to buddy me and throw me the religion reward. This is what I mean by kits is just WEIRD; like voting to lynch Faddy that day makes no sense if that's also linked to the religion reward. (it also makes no sense since he wouldn't be lynched at all). I think you have to ask if this is too-scummy-to-be-scummy behavior or why scum would try to call this much attention but it's fucking strange for sure and I don't think the slot can be trusted. ET hasn't done a ton to make it look better.
This is just kinda empty.
And the rest of these are easy. The Gotham vote could have been for Blarg or not; it's not conclusive, but unless ET suddenly impresses, this slot is too haphazard and has too much scum equity to go to endgame.
I'm in favor of a nin or ET lynch today.