As much as I do wish this project would succeed, past data and how its fairing are unfortunately painting a grim picture unless something major happens. Without a major change to a campaign, Kickstarters funding can be generally broken down into three main funding periods; the first 3-4 days, the middle days and the final 3-4 days. For most higher goal video game kickstarters the first 3 days tend to generally make up 25-30% at minimum of their total backing funds. There are some exceptions to this (for it's % to be below that) but those tend to come from campaigns that somehow flew under the radar or had a mid-campaign reboot that caught the attention and the money of backers. The middles day have the same 25-30% minimum unless it's an extremely short campaign or something causes hype to completely die (though tends to lead to failed campaigns). The final 3 days has the least consistent showings for a bottom line of the funding periods, with it being as low as single digits for some projects. The upper limit is easier to put at around 30%, how much comes in these final 3 days is generally affected by stretch goals for those that have already passed it's goal and just making it to the goal for those under.
Unfortunately for The Good Life it's current showings aren't looking up. If we were to assume that during the 23 middle days left (26 days left total) that it would average 800,000 yen per day (it's currently doing 900ks and 500ks other days, so went with a higher middle ground for this) and it would get an identical ending 3 days as the opening 3 days (actually used the 4th day instead of the 3rd day since it was higher) it would still miss it's goal ending with it earning 58.03M Yen. Let's assume people raise their amounts and get uncertain people to back to just get the campaign across the finish line, I have data on that via Descent: Underground who with about 8 minutes give or take left passed it's goal and finished at 601K out of 600K. It's difference between first 3 days and final 3 days was a 16.5% increase over it, so lets apply that same % increase to TGL's final 3 days in the assumption above. With the same increase changed, TGL would still end at 65.9M Yen missing it's goal by 2M Yen (or about $20K). Descent had it's final 3 days make up 32% of it's total, for reasons its just tends to be impossible for a normal campaign to have it's final three days to reach a third of the total funds and TGL is likley in the same boat.
Is it all doom and gloom? Mostly, but there is a little sunshine in this grim picture. There are really two main paths TGL could take to attempt to thwart this likley scenario; do a mid-campaign reboot to put some life into the campaign in order to give it coverage from websites/youtubers in order to raise it's baseline average funding during the middle days and to add new high end rewards. The 2nd one is a big issue when looking at the campaign, for better or worse whales are what tend to fund a campaigns not higher backer count. TGL's high end rewards are completely missing with nothing higher then 50,000 yen, and unless your a popular name/franchise or you have a low funding goal this can sink your campaign. As of right now this campaign is in desperate need of higher rewards that go from between 80,000-1,000,000 Yen, these tiers are what help campaigns that aren't already swimming in backer funds cross the finish line in the end because they stack up.
While this was a depressing analysis of the situation to write, I really do hope SWERY and the campaign organizers can make the changes needed to help fund this project in the end.
Unfortunately for The Good Life it's current showings aren't looking up. If we were to assume that during the 23 middle days left (26 days left total) that it would average 800,000 yen per day (it's currently doing 900ks and 500ks other days, so went with a higher middle ground for this) and it would get an identical ending 3 days as the opening 3 days (actually used the 4th day instead of the 3rd day since it was higher) it would still miss it's goal ending with it earning 58.03M Yen. Let's assume people raise their amounts and get uncertain people to back to just get the campaign across the finish line, I have data on that via Descent: Underground who with about 8 minutes give or take left passed it's goal and finished at 601K out of 600K. It's difference between first 3 days and final 3 days was a 16.5% increase over it, so lets apply that same % increase to TGL's final 3 days in the assumption above. With the same increase changed, TGL would still end at 65.9M Yen missing it's goal by 2M Yen (or about $20K). Descent had it's final 3 days make up 32% of it's total, for reasons its just tends to be impossible for a normal campaign to have it's final three days to reach a third of the total funds and TGL is likley in the same boat.
Is it all doom and gloom? Mostly, but there is a little sunshine in this grim picture. There are really two main paths TGL could take to attempt to thwart this likley scenario; do a mid-campaign reboot to put some life into the campaign in order to give it coverage from websites/youtubers in order to raise it's baseline average funding during the middle days and to add new high end rewards. The 2nd one is a big issue when looking at the campaign, for better or worse whales are what tend to fund a campaigns not higher backer count. TGL's high end rewards are completely missing with nothing higher then 50,000 yen, and unless your a popular name/franchise or you have a low funding goal this can sink your campaign. As of right now this campaign is in desperate need of higher rewards that go from between 80,000-1,000,000 Yen, these tiers are what help campaigns that aren't already swimming in backer funds cross the finish line in the end because they stack up.
While this was a depressing analysis of the situation to write, I really do hope SWERY and the campaign organizers can make the changes needed to help fund this project in the end.
