March 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, April 17th

Deleted member 2145 · Apr 20, 2018

Benji said:
They've definitely made huge strides from where they were. If they just can get their 1st party stronger they will be in a really healthy position.

Their hardware / services messaging and strategy is on point. Getting a strong 1st party is the last missing piece of the puzzle for them.

yep pretty much. I feel like at this point they just need to keep building momentum for their next gen hardware and get their first party in order for the launch of that. assuming they're going to keep up the great work with backwards compatibility and the updates to old games they will be in a great place. the One X is already arguably the best value on the market considering what it offers. also gamepass is going to really pay off for them if they get their first party in order because they'll have dedicated group of consumers who are going to check out all their new releases regardless and if a game's good it'll get the word of mouth flowing. could allow them to take some risks knowing that they've got people who will play it and see what the game is all about.

Deleted member 249 · Apr 20, 2018

Chris Walken said:
Seems like Swicth hype effect is deflating very quick

I mean, we have people with actual data suggesting that's not the case, but alright

Skittzo · Apr 20, 2018

Chris Walken said:
Good numbers for all 3, but man that PS4, it's unstoppable.

Seems like Swicth hype effect is deflating very quick, let's see how It manages the end of this year, Q1 of 2018 has been horrible in software terms and seems like it affected the popularity of the console.

By now, 20 million consoles by the end of the year are out of the question, even 17 million like in 2017 unless Nintendo launches Pokemon and Smash in the holyday season.

I think you're greatly underestimating how Q4-loaded Nintendo's sales have always been. 20M in 2018 is still pretty likely if Pokemon does release.

Deleted member 249 · Apr 20, 2018

skittzo0413 said:
I think you're greatly underestimating how Q4-loaded Nintendo's sales have always been. 20M in 2018 is still pretty likely if Pokemon does release.

Yeah, I do think Switch's second year is hugely contingent on Pokemon actually hitting this year. Smash is big, but it's not that big

Deleted member 2145 · Apr 20, 2018

I always feel like people don't understand that the 20 million thing was for the fiscal year, not the calendar year

also feel like that's been said enough to where people are just willfully trying to manufacture a negative narrative

Sangetsu-II · Apr 20, 2018

Welfare said:
XB1 is doing fantastic this year. Up over 37% this quarter from 2017, to ~850K.

Previous quarters only did around 600K with 2014 being the only Q1 to hit above 700K at 712K.

XB1 also tracks far enough ahead of 2017 so far that even April and May 2017 won't catch up to Q1 2018. 2016 catches up to Q1 2018 in May, 2015 and 2014 almost catch up in April. We should see XB1 up YoY up until November.

Soony Xbone Uhh said:
Xbox One Q1 sales:

2014: ~710k
2015: ~655k
2016: ~620k
2017: ~620k
2018: ~850k

Thanks to both, impressive indeed.

Deleted member 2785 · Apr 20, 2018

Anyways, updated my outlook. 17.6m total consoles estimated for U.S. calendar 2018 (excluding the plug and plays like SNES Classic). Still have double digit % growth in both physical and digital full game sales due primarily to Switch. Still have Switch finishing the year with most consoles sold with a big holiday quarter. Whether or not Pokemon is in the year or not is a big fulcrum.

Deleted member 249 · Apr 20, 2018

phanphare said:
also feel like that's been said enough to where people are just willfully trying to manufacture a negative narrative

This part is true, and can be confirmed when you look at poster histories...
Anyway, don't want to derail this thread into that. All three systems did well in March, I am extremely happy. Microsoft's comeback is impressive, PS4 deserves all the success in the world, Kirby seems to have helped Switch greatly. Good stuff all around.

Skittzo · Apr 20, 2018

Phantom Thief said:
Yeah, I do think Switch's second year is hugely contingent on Pokemon actually hitting this year. Smash is big, but it's not that big

Yup, if they don't have Pokemon I don't see huge growth YoY. Still some, but not 20M level. Animal Crossing would be an okay substitute, but still not at the same level.

Pokemon is extremely important.

phanphare said:
I always feel like people don't understand that the 20 million thing was for the fiscal year, not the calendar year

also feel like that's been said enough to where people are just willfully trying to manufacture a negative narrative

It's also not an official forecast, so we don't know if it was referring to FY or CY. Either way it should roughly be the same numbers, unless they have some heavy hitters for next Jan-March.

Jiggy · Apr 20, 2018

N.Domixis said:
Sony is still crazy not doing price promotions and deals, they were much more competitive last year. They could be sellin 400K.

They don't really need any price promotions with the PS4 selling as well as it is currently

Should have a huge April too

Deleted member 249 · Apr 20, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
Anyways, updated my outlook. 17.6m total consoles estimated for U.S. calendar 2018 (excluding the plug and plays like SNES Classic). Still have double digit % growth in both physical and digital full game sales due primarily to Switch. Still have Switch finishing the year with most consoles sold with a big holiday quarter. Whether or not Pokemon is in the year or not is a big fulcrum.

Has there ever been one game upon which the entire outlook for a console's performance for a tracking period has hinged as much as Pokemon for Switch Y2?

Welfare · Apr 20, 2018

Chris Walken said:
Seems like Swicth hype effect is deflating very quick, let's see how It manages the end of this year, Q1 of 2018 has been horrible in software terms and seems like it affected the popularity of the console.

It's selling ~60K a week this year so far off of nothing. 3DS in March 2012 sold 225K and that was after an emergency price cut in 2011.

Switch is in prime position to sell massive number this year. I believe a price cut to $249 is in the cards for when they launch paid online and Smash, which i think is September. Would also be a great time as it'll be on the market for almost 20 months without a cut and the holiday boost would be incredible.

Deleted member 2785 · Apr 20, 2018

Phantom Thief said:
Has there ever been one game upon which the entire outlook for a console's performance for a tracking period has hinged as much as Pokemon for Switch Y2?

The world revolves around GTA.

Deleted member 249 · Apr 20, 2018

skittzo0413 said:
Yup, if they don't have Pokemon I don't see huge growth YoY. Still some, but not 20M level. Animal Crossing would be an okay substitute, but still not at the same level.

Pokemon is extremely important.

Yeah, the pressure Game Freak must be feeling has to be insane, I don't envy them.
Pokemon+Smash+Animal Crossing will be a slam dunk, though. Even Pokemon+Smash alone will be overwhelmingly effective.

Sangetsu-II · Apr 20, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
Anomaly due to Guitar Hero/Rock Band and then Kinect/Move. Totally different circumstances this time.

Man I miss the old guitar hero/DDRMAX days. Good times.

Simba1 · Apr 20, 2018

Chris Walken said:
Seems like Swicth hype effect is deflating very quick, let's see how It manages the end of this year, Q1 of 2018 has been horrible in software terms and seems like it affected the popularity of the console.

Nothing suggest that, 310k for March is quite good in any case, and Switch managed to that number only with Kirby.

Benji · Apr 20, 2018

People need to remember there is going to be a cap on what Switch can realistically do right now without software. It can only sell so many units based off of the big hitters from last year.

The fact its still performing as well as it is considering how weak Q1 and Q2 are is telling. If they can deliver some big hitters in the 2nd half of the year its going to move a monsterous amount of units, even if the first half isn't quite as high as some of us would have thought it would be

Deleted member 2145 · Apr 20, 2018

skittzo0413 said:
Yup, if they don't have Pokemon I don't see huge growth YoY. Still some, but not 20M level. Animal Crossing would be an okay substitute, but still not at the same level.

Pokemon is extremely important.

I'm gonna laugh my ass off when NSMBU is enough to make the Switch go supernova

Deleted member 249 · Apr 20, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
The world revolves around GTA.

Haha, that's true too.

Deleted member 2785 · Apr 20, 2018

Sangetsu-II said:
Man I miss the old guitar hero/DDRMAX days. Good times.

Yeah. Problem is that and motion control led to a level of false confidence in hardware sales sustainability. PS4/Xone should have launched in 2012, not 2013. Had that happened, we wouldn't have had the huge declines in HW sales we saw in that two year period.

Of course, seeing the same rumblings about that again. IMO, new gen has to hit in 2020. Pushing back to 2021 because of the strength of the boxes right now would be unfortunate.

gundamkyoukai · Apr 20, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
The world revolves around GTA.

So that make the universe revolves around GTAV lol.

Sonicfan059 · Apr 20, 2018

N.Domixis said:
Sony is still crazy not doing price promotions and deals, they were much more competitive last year. They could be sellin 400K.

This year they seem to be pushing PSVR since PS4 is doing very strongly. I expect PS4 to take April and May as well due to GOW hype that will linger into May and maybe Detroit hype if it gets strong reviews.

Thorrgal · Apr 20, 2018

Andri said:
NPD goes by Revenue right ? So would a digital Gamepass SOT count as 10$ revenue or 60?

Probably because of Gamepass.

But on Gamepass your not buying the game, right? You're merely renting it?

I'm not sure NPD will count those if that's accurate

We may get some kind of press release by MS stating the total number of unique downloads of the game though

Benji · Apr 20, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
Yeah. Problem is that and motion control led to a level of false confidence in hardware sales sustainability. PS4/Xone should have launched in 2012, not 2013. Had that happened, we wouldn't have had the huge declines in HW sales we saw in that two year period.

Of course, seeing the same rumblings about that again. IMO, new gen has to hit in 2020. Pushing back to 2021 because of the strength of the boxes right now would be unfortunate.

Could not agree more, and I've been of the opinion 2019 wouldn't even be bad for the industry either.

That said they can't hit later than 2020. If so we will see major market contraction the last year or so of the current gen market

Andri · Apr 20, 2018

Chris Walken said:
Good numbers for all 3, but man that PS4, it's unstoppable.

Seems like Swicth hype effect is deflating very quick, let's see how It manages the end of this year, Q1 of 2018 has been horrible in software terms and seems like it affected the popularity of the console.

By now, 20 million consoles by the end of the year are out of the question, even 17 million like in 2017 unless Nintendo launches Pokemon and Smash in the holyday season.

I dont get people like you.

Switch apparently had a horrible Q1, and is deflating.

But sales data says they are on track of their own predictions, YOY they are just a smidge down in NA(less than 50k) and up YoY in Japan.

So why would the conclusion of the data aviable be that it will be down YOY in the end ?

And the 20 m would be for the entire FY, not for end of the year anyway.

Deleted member 2785 · Apr 20, 2018

Benji said:
Could not agree more, and I've been of the opinion 2019 wouldn't even be bad for the industry either.

That said they can't hit later than 2020. If so we will see major market contraction the last year or so of the current gen market

I think 2019 may have been an option, but I just can't see that happening given sales strength of the boxes right now. From a commercial perspective I just can't get the math to work where that benefits opcon like 2020 would. But hey, who knows, all depends on if the goal is share or profit I guess.

Benji · Apr 20, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
I think 2019 may have been an option, but I just can't see that happening given sales strength of the boxes right now. From a commercial perspective I just can't get the math to work where that benefits opcon like 2020 would. But hey, who knows, all depends on if the goal is share or profit I guess.

Yeah 2019 I don't think necessarily ever "had" or "should" have been the date, I just think it wasn't a bad move for the industry like some believe. I think current gen boxes and next gen could have existed healthily side by side during that transition phase.

2020 is also fine, and shouldn't result in any major issues either imo. And in the end we will probably get better hardware by waiting the extra year so may have been the better move in the end. Launching after 2020 though would be a very poor decision however imo, and would result in pretty major market contraction (not permanently but still a big hit)

Gotdatmoney · Apr 20, 2018

MatPiscatella I have a question regarding NPD Canada. Is that data under a separate team/organization (I dont know how you guys are set up) or is it under something else? I always was curious about that split.

HockeyGuy412 · Apr 20, 2018

Thorrgal said:
But on Gamepass your not buying the game, right? You're merely renting it?

I'm not sure NPD will count those if that's accurate

We may get some kind of press release by MS stating the total number of unique downloads of the game though

Nothing from gamepass sells will be on the npd

Deleted member 2145 · Apr 20, 2018

I think 2019 would work if the transition to next gen is smooth and games are cross gen for a bit much like PS4/Xbox One to PS4 Pro/Xbox One X

it'd give early adopters an option to just go ahead and upgrade and it wouldn't put pressure on people who just jumped in/want to stick with their current hardware for a bit

you could even go a step further and have a full cross gen period, then a semi cross gen period where the base hardware gets phased out but the Pro and X can still play stuff, and then cut it all and be next gen only

Deleted member 2785 · Apr 20, 2018

Gotdatmoney said:
MatPiscatella I have a question regarding NPD Canada. Is that data under a separate team/organization (I dont know how you guys are set up) or is it under something else? I always was curious about that split.

We have an Americas service which includes everything, well, Americas. Canada, US, Mexico, LATAM all fall under this Americas service umbrella. However, we do have different teams that look at the territories and regions due to local nuance. At some point, I want the media release to include both US as well as other Americas territories, but we're not there quite yet.

Deleted member 249 · Apr 20, 2018

Mat, question- I know Microsoft is part of the group that submits digital data to NPD, will that include Game Pass data as well?

5Twist · Apr 20, 2018

N.Domixis said:
Sony is still crazy not doing price promotions and deals, they were much more competitive last year. They could be sellin 400K.

If the PS4 is selling this well without Sony needing to sacrifice revenue and taking a hit in the profit margins, then what's the point of doing price promotions business-wise?

Andri · Apr 20, 2018

Thorrgal said:
But on Gamepass your not buying the game, right? You're merely renting it?

I'm not sure NPD will count those if that's accurate

We may get some kind of press release by MS stating the total number of unique downloads of the game though

I would assume that since GP is a subscription service, the content of said service gets the revenue allocated by views(or in this case playtime).
So if you buy GP and use 100% of your gametime on SOT, all the revenue of your subscription should be counted as that.
But i kinda doubt ms/third party will ever reveal how it actually works.

Lelouch0612 · Apr 20, 2018

Right now the Switch is not competing against the X1/PS4. The software offering is too different between them.

I wonder what effect Fortnite and GTAV could have if they were to come to the Switch. Would the pie grow even bigger without consequences for the competitors or would we witness a significant canibalizing effect ?

Pablo Mesa · Apr 20, 2018

KillerMan91 said:
PS4: 361k
Switch: 308k
XBO: 302.5k

1.15 time 308K is 354K.

Andri · Apr 20, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
We have an Americas service which includes everything, well, Americas. Canada, US, Mexico, LATAM all fall under this Americas service umbrella. However, we do have different teams that look at the territories and regions due to local nuance. At some point, I want the media release to include both US as well as other Americas territories, but we're not there quite yet.

How much money would we have to donate to you so you can moneybag all the consolemakers and all the digital stores on PC into joining the reporting of digital sales to NPD ?

Andri · Apr 20, 2018

Lelouch0612 said:
Right now the Switch is not competing against the X1/PS4. The software offering is too different between them.

I wonder what effect Fortnite and GTAV could have if they were to come to the Switch. Would the pie grow even bigger without consequences for the competitors or would we witness a significant canibalizing effect ?

My guess would be that it causes slight growth, and a huge amount of Double/tripple dipping.

Pablo Mesa · Apr 20, 2018

5Twist said:
If the PS4 is selling this well without Sony needing to sacrifice revenue and taking a hit in the profit margins, then what's the point of doing price promotions business-wise?

is all about timing they already did it in November Black Friday

Im actually surprised for Switch Numbers, I expected em to go lower given not a high profile game been out for months, compared to PS that :only: have a 46K lead, counting a major release like FC5

Deleted member 2785 · Apr 20, 2018

Lelouch0612 said:
Right now the Switch is not competing against the X1/PS4. The software offering is too different between them.

I wonder what effect Fortnite and GTAV could have if they were to come to the Switch. Would the pie grow even bigger without consequences for the competitors or would we witness a significant canibalizing effect ?

Highly confident he pie would just grow bigger.

Pablo Mesa · Apr 20, 2018

Lelouch0612 said:
I wonder what effect Fortnite and GTAV could have if they were to come to the Switch

Likely improve numbers a lot. unless people still cemented in the mentality that 3rd party does not sell on Nintendo's hardware

cakely · Apr 20, 2018

Looks like my predictions were decent ... I even got the order right.

We are now at the point where a F2P, multiplatform title is the biggest driver of sales for the HD twins. What a world.

Thorrgal · Apr 20, 2018

Benji said:
Xbox in a vacuum is having the most impressive performance of 2018 for me. Simply because the growth for it has been so strong.

PS4 obviously has an outstanding performance, as does Switch, but the growth Xbox is seeing compared to last year is pretty crazy.

I think the growth this year comes from the fact that the decline last year was huge.

People were not buying the Xbox waiting for the X it seems.

Plus Fortnite I guess :P

PS: This Fornite driver of sales is stronger for the PS4 or the XBox? Or more or less similar? I wonder because of PUBG

Benji · Apr 20, 2018

Lelouch0612 said:
Right now the Switch is not competing against the X1/PS4. The software offering is too different between them.

I wonder what effect Fortnite and GTAV could have if they were to come to the Switch. Would the pie grow even bigger without consequences for the competitors or would we witness a significant canibalizing effect ?

I don't think there is anything Switch could do to have a cannibalizing affect.

Nintendo is, and will always be imo, their own thing. Overall pie either grows or shrinks based off of their performance in the generation but its still its own market really.

Thorrgal said:
I think the growth this year comes from the fact that the decline last year was huge.

People were not buying the Xbox waiting for the X it seems.

Plus Fortnite I guess :P

PS: This Fornite driver of sales is stronger for the PS4 or the XBox? Or more or less similar? I wonder because of PUBG

Its not just its growth based on last year though. Its tracking to have its best year in sales ever.

jroc74 · Apr 20, 2018

Welfare said:
PS4: ~358K
NSW: ~311K
XB1: ~302K

WOW at this month, Much better than I expected. And of course I swapped Xbox and Switch at the last second.

I should have switched them. I did boost my PS4 numbers up right at the end based on those few last minute posts.

Feeling good about mine.

Pezus · Apr 20, 2018

Soony Xbone Uhh said:
Xbox One Q1 sales:

2014: ~710k
2015: ~655k
2016: ~620k
2017: ~620k
2018: ~850k

Do we have such a comparison for PS4?

Welfare · Apr 20, 2018

Thorrgal said:
I think the growth this year comes from the fact that the decline last year was huge.

People were not buying the Xbox waiting for the X it seems.

Plus Fortnite I guess :P

PS: This Fornite driver of sales is stronger for the PS4 or the XBox? Or more or less similar? I wonder because of PUBG

I would say PS4 benefits more from Fortnite. It held slightly better than Xbox One in weekly average this month from February despite XB1 also having a temp price cut and free game deal with the One X. Helps to be the market leader.

Deleted member 249 · Apr 20, 2018

Benji said:
I don't think there is anything Switch could do to have a cannibalizing affect.

Nintendo is, and will always be imo, their own thing. Overall pie either grows or shrinks based off of their performance in the generation but its still its own market really.

On the whole, I think that's a good thing, given that they can grow the market, but good god they need to be more consistent going from generation to generation lol

Benji · Apr 20, 2018

Phantom Thief said:
On the whole, I think that's a good thing, given that they can grow the market, but good god they need to be more consistent going from generation to generation lol

Yeah I don't mean that in a negative light at all.

It's just more so what Nintendo offers is something totally different from MS and Sony in general, and I don't see that ever really changing. And that isn't a bad thing, in fact like you said I think its good. Nintendo helps grow the market larger than the demo's that we see with Xbox / PlayStation when they are doing well.

N.Domixis · Apr 20, 2018

5Twist said:
If the PS4 is selling this well without Sony needing to sacrifice revenue and taking a hit in the profit margins, then what's the point of doing price promotions business-wise?

They can be selling even more and getting more psn customers.

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