March 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, April 17th

Deleted member 2785 · Apr 20, 2018

Benji said:
Its tracking to have its best year in sales ever.

I still have the platform forecast as flat in units for the year, just because Q4 was so strong. Even if they're trending well ahead all year going into Q4, it is going to be a tough comp.

N.Domixis said:
They can be selling even more and getting more psn customers.

They have all the numbers in the world to make very educated calculations and decisions on how/where/when to do stuff like this.

Deleted member 249 · Apr 20, 2018

Benji said:
Yeah I don't mean that in a negative light at all.

It's just more so what Nintendo offers is something totally different form MS and Sony in general, and I don't see that ever really changing. And that isn't a bad thing, in fact like you said I think its good. Nintendo helps grow the market larger than the demo's that we see with Xbox / PlayStation when they are doing well.

Yup, more variety in platforms and games, more reach to more audiences, and all that.
Although- and maybe this is going far too back, so I get it if this isn't something you can answer lol- has Nintendo's relative independence like this always been the case? Or were they more competing for the same pie with N64 and Gamecube? I mean in terms of market impact and consequence, here (since the general understanding is they were trying to compete for the same demos until the Wii).

Benji · Apr 20, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
I still have the platform forecast as flat in units for the year, just because Q4 was so strong. Even if they're trending well ahead all year going into Q4, it is going to be a tough comp.
.

Yeah being flat is entirely possible. As you said Q4 was big for them last year.

Really depends on if MS have a huge hitter planned for this Q4 (like Halo 6) and what sort of bundles / marketing deals they have. If they have something like say a Starfield Xbox One X custom bundle or something could be big.

Soony Xbone Uhh · Apr 20, 2018

Pezus said:
Do we have such a comparison for PS4?

Sure!
Ps4 Q1 sales:

2014: ~925k
2015: ~860k
2016: ~960k
2017:
2018:

ask Welfare for the newer years. Don't have them written down. Would've need to search them.

Pablo Mesa · Apr 20, 2018

Chris Walken said:
Seems like Swicth hype effect is deflating very quick, let's see how It manages the end of this year, Q1 of 2018 has been horrible in software terms and seems like it affected the popularity of the console.

wut, the fact that Switch been selling what it has without any major release since December is incredible proof of the desire people has for it. on the other had, even with 2 bigs under its belt (Far Cry 5 and MLB) PS4 only being 46K above it show more who is loosing steam in term of hardware sales.

Sense · Apr 20, 2018

Went to pick up god of war at my local Best Buy and noticed atleast 20 stone mason editions ready to be picked up. Some PS4 pro gow edition were also selling. More evidence this is going to be huge.

Deleted member 2785 · Apr 20, 2018

Benji said:
Really depends on if MS have a huge hitter planned for this Q4.

Yeah. I assumed that last year. Didn't work out so well for my forecast. I'll wait and see this time.

Sonicfan059 · Apr 20, 2018

N.Domixis said:
They can be selling even more and getting more psn customers.

Keeping it at $299 gives them wiggle room for PSVR to start at $299 also. Pushing that is important because VR will likely be integrated with PS5 and likely become much bigger after price drops, more software, and hardware improvements.

v_iHuGi · Apr 20, 2018

Pablo Mesa said:
wut, the fact that Switch been selling what it has without any major release since December is incredible proof of the desire people has for it. on the other had, even with 2 bigs under its belt (Far Cry 5 and MLB) PS4 only being 46K above it show more who is loosing steam in term of hardware sales.

Lmao

This thread is already delivering, can´t wait for Tuesday.

Deleted member 249 · Apr 20, 2018

Sense said:
Went to pick up god of war at my local Best Buy and noticed atleast 20 stone mason editions ready to be picked up. Some PS4 pro gow edition were also selling. More evidence this is going to be huge.

It's definitely going to be massive (it also helps that the series has always been massive in the US)

Pablo Mesa · Apr 20, 2018

phanphare said:
also feel like that's been said enough to where people are just willfully trying to manufacture a negative narrative

Gotdatmoney · Apr 20, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
We have an Americas service which includes everything, well, Americas. Canada, US, Mexico, LATAM all fall under this Americas service umbrella. However, we do have different teams that look at the territories and regions due to local nuance. At some point, I want the media release to include both US as well as other Americas territories, but we're not there quite yet.

Ah cool cool. That makes sense. Iknow Canada and the US are similar in buying habits but I'm curious how Mexico amd Latin America look. Will be cool when everything is eventually rolled out. Thanks for the info :)

Benji · Apr 20, 2018

Pablo Mesa said:
wut, the fact that Switch been selling what it has without any major release since December is incredible proof of the desire people has for it. on the other had, even with 2 bigs under its belt (Far Cry 5 and MLB) PS4 only being 46K above it show more who is loosing steam in term of hardware sales.

..........that also shouldn't be the take away either

The take away should be the entire market right now is incredibly healthy. As Welfare mentioned this is the first March with 3 consoles above 300k since 2011

Skittzo · Apr 20, 2018

Benji said:
..........that also shouldn't be the take away either

The take away should be the entire market right now is incredibly healthy. As Welfare mentioned this is the first March with 3 consoles above 300k since 2011

Haven't you heard? Someone always has to be losing, how else would we feel schadenfreude?

/s

Pablo Mesa · Apr 20, 2018

Benji said:
..........that also shouldn't be the take away either

its an on purpose exaggeration, like twisting facts for doom and gloom is easy. and some really, really seem to enjoy that, see v_iHuGi

Gotdatmoney · Apr 20, 2018

Chris Walken said:
Good numbers for all 3, but man that PS4, it's unstoppable.

Seems like Swicth hype effect is deflating very quick, let's see how It manages the end of this year, Q1 of 2018 has been horrible in software terms and seems like it affected the popularity of the console.

By now, 20 million consoles by the end of the year are out of the question, even 17 million like in 2017 unless Nintendo launches Pokemon and Smash in the holyday season.

Pablo Mesa said:
wut, the fact that Switch been selling what it has without any major release since December is incredible proof of the desire people has for it. on the other had, even with 2 bigs under its belt (Far Cry 5 and MLB) PS4 only being 46K above it show more who is loosing steam in term of hardware sales.

Yall need to teach the spin class at my local gym. Peeps would be working up a mighty sweat with you guys as instructors.

Andri · Apr 20, 2018

I just hope that this hugely healthy market wont make them complacent and delay next gen too long.
Otherwise i could see people who are on the train right now jumping off before they can jump over to the next gen train.

More options are nice, there is no need to delay next gen in the hope of getting a few more people into this gen, just let people buy both.

Edit:
I didnt mean to say that they were lazy, but i didnt find the best word to translate "selbstgefällig" into english, complacent should be a better fit.

Deleted member 2785 · Apr 20, 2018

Todd bless the maker of the Ignore function.

Andri said:
I just hope that this hugely healthy market wont make them lazy and delay next gen too long

Yeah. That's the reason they'd delay. Sure.

Pablo Mesa · Apr 20, 2018

Andri said:
I just hope that this hugely healthy market wont make them lazy and delay next gen too long.
Otherwise i could see people who are on the train right now jumping off before they can jump over to the next gen train.

More options are nice, there is no need to delay next gen in the hope of getting a few more people into this gen, just let people buy both.

both Sony and Microsoft likely already know what they will aim for next gen. but the more time passes, Both current and next hardware prices manufacturing will decrease increasing the profit margins, so yeah, they likely wont move on unless they really, really need to.

ethomaz · Apr 20, 2018

A king will never lose the majesty.

PS4 continue reigning no matter new hot consoles are released or not... well until PS5 ;)

4 years of domination and going...

Garf02 · Apr 20, 2018

>all consoles doing well overall
>people still trying to spin the number to fit their negative narratives
ain console warring a ban able offense?

Andri · Apr 20, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
Todd bless the maker of the Ignore function.

Yeah. That's the reason they'd delay. Sure.

What i mean is that they could delay launching next gen to increase profit margin, but by doing so cause less people to be interrested in picking up a system early next gen, thus shrinking the market(temporarily) which would surely hurt software sales ?

Gotdatmoney · Apr 20, 2018

skittzo0413 said:
Haven't you heard? Someone always has to be losing, how else would we feel schadenfreude?

/s

On NPD when Sony, MS or Nintendo comes Last, they spend all day trying to write a PR spin with all Ls. That shit is hard.

I heard from my uncles friend with inside contacts that NPD group actually mails 3rd place a giant L just so they don't lose focus.

Welfare · Apr 20, 2018

Soony Xbone Uhh said:
Sure!
Ps4 Q1 sales:

2014: ~910k
2015: ~860k
2016: ~960k
2017:
2018:

ask Welfare for the newer years. Don't have them written down. Would've need to search them.

2017: ~1.01M
2018: ~975K

I fixed your 2014 number.

Aokiji · Apr 20, 2018

Welfare said:
PS4: ~358K
NSW: ~311K
XB1: ~302K

WOW at this month, Much better than I expected. And of course I swapped Xbox and Switch at the last second.

The train, keeps on training

Astandahl · Apr 20, 2018

Welfare said:
2017: ~1.01M
2018: ~975K

I fixed your 2014 number.

So after April PS4 will be up YOY? Not bad at all. It's going to be "interesting" year ( as usual )

ethomaz · Apr 20, 2018

Pablo Mesa said:
wut, the fact that Switch been selling what it has without any major release since December is incredible proof of the desire people has for it. on the other had, even with 2 bigs under its belt (Far Cry 5 and MLB) PS4 only being 46K above it show more who is loosing steam in term of hardware sales.

I'm confused here... who is losing steam in hardware terms? Because PS4 is doing it usual job selling like hotcakes.

Deleted member 2145 · Apr 20, 2018

ethomaz said:
A king will never lose the majesty.

PS4 continue reigning no matter new hot consoles are released or not... well until PS5 ;)

4 years of domination and going...

Garf02 said:
>all consoles doing well overall
>people still trying to spin the number to fit their negative narratives
ain console warring a ban able offense?

thisisera.gif

SilverX · Apr 20, 2018

Welfare said:
Xbox was capping at ~240K in March with price cuts the past 2 years. Something else has to help drive sales to ~300K this year.

PS4 as well hasn't had a price drop since 2016. Sales shouldn't be holding this well so long after the fact.

The Xbox One X was treated like a new generation of Xbox was launching, clearly the sales momentum it saw from the launch carried into the first few months of the new year WITH price cuts to move Xbox One S units.

Sony is also doing a huge ad campaign for God of War that has been in full effect since the beginning of the year which I credit to keeping consumer interest healthy.

To say Fortnite is the primary reason is just something I can't get behind

Jiggy · Apr 20, 2018

lazy devs

lazy pubs

lazy console manufacturers

who isn't lazy anymore

ethomaz · Apr 20, 2018

Welfare said:
2017: ~1.01M
2018: ~975K

I fixed your 2014 number.

Interesting... PS4 will probably be up this first half of the year... let's see how it does the second half.

Cess007 · Apr 20, 2018

Welfare said:
2017: ~1.01M
2018: ~975K

I fixed your 2014 number.

So, this would be the 2nd best Q1 for the PS4? In it's 5th year? Damn, seems like everybody is winning!

Sonicfan059 · Apr 20, 2018

Welfare said:
2017: ~1.01M
2018: ~975K

I fixed your 2014 number.

So, strongest Q1 without a price promotion? Heck even no bundle, it's selling standalone standard.

Benji · Apr 20, 2018

Cess007 said:
So, this would be the 2nd best Q1 for the PS4? In it's 5th year? Damn

And without any pricing promotion. And depending on how GoW moves hardware in April, that could be a hell of a month for PS4 as well.

Needless to say the performance for all consoles right now is exemplary

Gotdatmoney · Apr 20, 2018

Garf02 said:
>all consoles doing well overall
>people still trying to spin the number to fit their negative narratives
ain console warring a ban able offense?

When Ouya makes a come back I want my ban lifted with an apology then.

Who says no?

Benji · Apr 20, 2018

Garf02 said:
>all consoles doing well overall
>people still trying to spin the number to fit their negative narratives
ain console warring a ban able offense?

The unfortunate thing is a lot of people actually only follow sales to see how their preferred platform / game is doing in comparison to the competition. Not to actually just follow and discuss the industry as a whole.

SilverX · Apr 20, 2018

MatPiscatella said:
Bah. Flubbed the edit. Whatever.

Benji said:
I'm confused why you keep saying "I feel like" when you have 2 people in this thread with factual information on what is happening providing you the context.

No one is saying Fortnite is the only reason hardware is selling.

We are saying it is the biggest contributor of new hardware sales atm. Which is accurate.

Btw I'm not saying this trying to be rude, I'm just saying me and Mat have the data on this. Its not just us spit balling

I understand that you guys have data, but it is the interpretation of the data that may be skewed by the amount of media presence Fortnite has. Everyone knows tons of people are playing it, but to be the primary cause of hardware sales rising when it seems like MS is spending a lot of money for first quarter sales pushing and the amount Sony has spent on first party/PS4 Pro ads this year is rivaling their efforts.

Garf02 · Apr 20, 2018

Benji said:
The unfortunate thing is a lot of people actually only follow sales to see how their preferred platform / game is doing in comparison to the competition. Not to actually just follow and discuss the industry as a whole.

im sooo not looking forward for next week given its Fiscal Years releases then

Andri · Apr 20, 2018

Jiggy said:
lazy devs

lazy pubs

lazy console manufacturers

who isn't lazy anymore

Sorry, i didnt mean to call them lazy, english is just a hard language sometimes.

I firmly believe no Dev/Pub/Manu is ever lazy and find people calling them that distastefull.

I do however think that sometimes they get too full of themselves, and try to ride a good wave for too long(which usually ends in them crashing).

Jom · Apr 20, 2018

N.Domixis said:
They can be selling even more and getting more psn customers.

I would think the calculus is a bit more complicated than simply sell more consoles and get more PSN customers.

They need to think about whether the increase of PSN customers resulting from the increased hardware purchases at say, a price of $249 or $199 is worth the loss in revenue per console. I gotta think they have some numbers that show the correlation between late adopters at a low price and the likelihood that they buy into the subscription service.

Peek-a-boo! · Apr 20, 2018

Benji said:
The unfortunate thing is a lot of people actually only follow sales to see how their preferred platform / game is doing in comparison to the competition. Not to actually just follow and discuss the industry as a whole.

That's why I really like seeing the regulars on here.

It is... well, it's not annoying, but there is definitely a pattern when an abrupt appearance from folks who make it quite clear what their platform of choice is, and seeing them pop in these kind of threads in a way that it seems like they have always been involved is jarring to say the least.

Anyhoo, it is a GREAT month for all three consoles!

I continue to be both surprised and slightly perplexed with the Xbox One performance, but it is nice to see ~ a 35% jump in YoY sales thus far is certainly good progress. The PlayStation 4 shows that it doesn't need a price cut anytime soon, and the Switch carries on selling rather well.

April is going to so, so interesting!

Benji · Apr 20, 2018

Sony is just being smart, seeing their console sell plenty healthy without having to give up profit margins, and focusing on driving as much revenue out of the last few years of PS4 as they can.

This generation is winding down. Even if its Q4 2020 that still leaves us with a little over 2 years left in the tank. Best to focus on driving as much profit out of the current gen as possible before the launch of PS5.

Gotdatmoney · Apr 20, 2018

I firmly believe Dad of War is going to smash what GOW3 did. The hype is ridiculous.

Benji · Apr 20, 2018

Gotdatmoney said:
I firmly believe Dad of War is going to smash what GOW3 did. The hype is ridiculous.

It's certainly been tracking that way at least for a while now. Reviews really pushed it up over the edge

Garf02 · Apr 20, 2018

Gotdatmoney said:
I firmly believe Dad of War is going to smash what GOW3 did. The hype is ridiculous.

not a bad game, personally didnt like it as much as the original trilogy (many of the chances irk me), but I can see how said changes make the game more :appealing: for the population than older GoW games. does NPD will track Labo given it has a software component?

SilverX · Apr 20, 2018

Peek-a-boo! said:
April is going to so, so interesting!

How can you say that when the only acceptable answer will be "all three are doing well!" lol. Any other answers will be once again seen as people "not looking at it correctly, console war view, etc.".

And I don't mean to mock anyone, but I feel like this is what NPD threads are becoming and it is making them less interesting.

asd202 · Apr 20, 2018

ethomaz said:
Interesting... PS4 will probably be up this first half of the year... let's see how it does the second half.

Depends June last year was pretty crazy high for PS4.

Benji · Apr 20, 2018

SilverX said:
How can you say that when the only acceptable answer will be "all three are doing well!" lol. Any other answers will be once again seen as people "not looking at it correctly, console war view, etc.".

And I don't mean to mock anyone, but I feel like this is what NPD threads are becoming and it is making them less interesting.

There is no other way to view current sales in the industry though.

It may be "boring" but it's the facts

Garf02 · Apr 20, 2018

SilverX said:
How can you say that when the only acceptable answer will be "all three are doing well!" lol. Any other answers will be once again seen as people "not looking at it correctly, console war view, etc.".

And I don't mean to mock anyone, but I feel like this is what NPD threads are becoming and it is making them less interesting.

cause all 3 are doing well. they are all withing the same frame numbers area. anyone claiming anything negative is likely spinning numbers. doing a terrible read of em, and or baiting.

If you want to argue who is on top of who. Im sure a separate thread for it will be better than bringing down the NPD/ Media Create threads

Horror · Apr 20, 2018

Any early reports - hardware or software - about my favorite system: 3DS?

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