Atlantic Hurricane season 2018 |OT| Trying to stay safe and dry on the coasts

perfectchaos007 · Jun 8, 2018

It's that time again North America Era (and as 2017 demonstrated, also the UK). Time to seriously keep an eye out in the Caribbean, Gulf, and Atlantic ocean for tropical systems that may come our way. This is the thread to discuss Atlantic hurricanes brewing, their forecast models, and providing information to help or assist others preparing for possible impact of a storm.

2018 Hurricane names: (I'll cross them out as they are used)

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William

NHC tracker

2018 preview: the aggregate forecast among meteorological and scientific agencies forecast about 11-14 named storms this year with about 6-7 being hurricanes, which is basically an average season. Time will tell if things pan out that way.

Deleted member 1086 · Jun 8, 2018

safe and sound on the other side of the country after ten years living in Virginia, will be interesting to see this season as an outsider. keep safe Hampton Roads ERA, and every one else in hurricane zones.

dabig2 · Jun 8, 2018

Last year sucked so much. And I really, really worry for Puerto Rico if they get hit by another big one.

geomon · Jun 8, 2018

I thought I was done with this shit when I moved to Oregon last year, but now I'm back in the shit. Sigh...I'm over this.

NihonTiger · Jun 8, 2018

Alberto was a weird storm.

Not because it took a weird path or anything. It kept its tropical-storm-like structure all the way until it got to Northern Indiana. They usually get torn up a bit before they get this far north.

OmniGamer · Jun 8, 2018

I still haven't recovered from Maria, financially and probably moreso, mentally...I'm extremely paranoid for this hurricane season.

perfectchaos007 · Jun 15, 2018

There's a wave in the gulf that probably won't develop into a named system but it will bring a lot of rain to the Texas and Louisiana coast over the next 4-5 days. We need the rain.

Deleted member 16452 · Jul 5, 2018

So tropical storm Beryl has formed in the Atlantic.

I hope it dissipates or changes course cause that current path...

gdt · Jul 5, 2018

Last year was a nightmare. Hope it all goes better this year.

Rebel1 · Jul 5, 2018

And here we go

MasterYoshi · Jul 5, 2018

I can't handle another year like the last.

SegFault · Jul 5, 2018

windshear should hopefully take this one apart.

perfectchaos007 · Jul 6, 2018

Yeah that windshear should kill it right over the lower antilles

Rebel1 · Jul 6, 2018

Cat 1 hurricane now

Seems the windshear will weaken it

Deleted member 16452 · Jul 6, 2018

Looking like it will stay a hurricane when it passes over the islands :(

Relix · Jul 6, 2018

Even at that distance, even if weakened, Puerto Rico cannot resist another tropical system. My people are so fucked :(. Also Dominica and the lesser islands. No break.

American Eskimo · Jul 6, 2018

What obscure book did they pull the name Beryl out of

sns97 · Jul 6, 2018

That would suck for Dominica after Maria. At least it is relatively small in size and intensity.

DimitriLH · Jul 6, 2018

Sigh...was optimistic that this would be just a storm, but im starting to get more nervous every hour.....well it seems weak so I doubt it will be anything like last years. This island (PR) still has not fully recovered from the last one.

TarpitCarnivore · Jul 6, 2018

Gunna just plug Tropical Tidbits for those who are into learning about the storms and what they're doing. He tries to do video breakdowns of what's happening whenever it makes sense: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

UberTag · Jul 6, 2018

American Eskimo said:
What obscure book did they pull the name Beryl out of

perfectchaos007 · Jul 6, 2018

American Eskimo said:
What obscure book did they pull the name Beryl out of

Starfox?

geomon · Jul 6, 2018

Beryl bound for Caribbean islands, possibly as a 100-mph hurricane

The storm should begin to weaken once it reaches the eastern Caribbean on Monday. However forecasters warned that may not occur in time to spare the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where storms often trigger dangerous mudslides and flash flooding.

Because the storm is so small, forecasters say they've been less certain about their projections. Small storms can morph quickly — Beryl flared up from a depression Thursday morning to a hurricane in less than 24 hours. The storms can just as quickly lose steam.

For the next day or so, forecasters say low wind shear will likely allow Beryl to continue strengthening. They have projected top winds to reach 100 mph before Haiti begins tearing up the storm. "But we shall see," forecasters said.

Fuck

Deleted member 1088 · Jul 6, 2018

Holy shit, I'm supposed to go to DR next week.

MrNelson · Jul 6, 2018

Man, these intensity forecast changes are insane.

It's gone from "It'll dissipate before reaching the Western Antilles" to "Jk, y'all getting a Cat 1" in like a 24 hour time period.

perfectchaos007 · Jul 7, 2018

Beryl is tracking more south, so hopefully due to its small size Dominica and PR won't be effected other than some higher surf and some light rains

edit: Well now its expected to fizzle

MrJames · Jul 8, 2018

Beryl is now an open wave but could reform in the Bahamas later in the week.

perfectchaos007 · Jul 11, 2018

Chris is awfully close to a major hurricane right now. 105mph sustained winds

perfectchaos007 · Jul 14, 2018

I had to temporarily un-strike Beryl from the names in the OP because it randomly decided to make a comeback.

MrJames · Aug 7, 2018

A fish chews up another name. Debby is here for now.

Long range models don't show anything yet so fingers crossed the season stays quiet for as long as possible.

mo60 · Aug 7, 2018

MrJames said:
A fish chews up another name. Debby is here for now.

Long range models don't show anything yet so fingers crossed the season stays quiet for as long as possible.

Debby will be dead in a day or two. The eastern pacific is producing tropical cyclones like crazy now. One of these cyclones is heading to the west pacific now.

Smiles · Aug 20, 2018

I am sorry for the bump but I was just wondering as someone who has been through a few of them in Haiti and Florida and even Bridgeport Connecticut.

What happened the the Hurricanes this season? Not that we did not get enough last year was horrid for so many but I was wondering if anyone has found out why the season is quiet and how we can make them all like this?

perfectchaos007 · Aug 20, 2018

Smiles said:
I am sorry for the bump but I was just wondering as someone who has been through a few of them in Haiti and Florida and even Bridgeport Connecticut.

What happened the the Hurricanes this season? Not that we did not get enough last year was horrid for so many but I was wondering if anyone has found out why the season is quiet and how we can make them all like this?

If humans had control over mother nature I would suggest blowing more Saharan dust over the Atlantic?

Jean-Luc Ponty · Aug 20, 2018

Smiles said:
What happened the the Hurricanes this season?

I don't think the hurricane season is over as hurricane Irma affected Florida at the beginning of September last year.

We are just lucky so far.

Kidgalactus · Aug 20, 2018

Smiles said:
I am sorry for the bump but I was just wondering as someone who has been through a few of them in Haiti and Florida and even Bridgeport Connecticut.

What happened the the Hurricanes this season? Not that we did not get enough last year was horrid for so many but I was wondering if anyone has found out why the season is quiet and how we can make them all like this?

Nothing. Season goes until November.

Solidsnakejej · Aug 20, 2018

Smiles said:
I am sorry for the bump but I was just wondering as someone who has been through a few of them in Haiti and Florida and even Bridgeport Connecticut.

What happened the the Hurricanes this season? Not that we did not get enough last year was horrid for so many but I was wondering if anyone has found out why the season is quiet and how we can make them all like this?

Weather is unpredictable, but NOAA changed the expectation of a below-average season a few weeks ago to 60% from 25% from May giving these factors. Way to make it like this all the time is to lower sea temps, but that ain't happening anytime soon.

A couple of factors that NOAA expects will help keep this season suppressed:

—Unusually low sea surface temperatures in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the tropical Atlantic. SSTs were 0.48°C below average for June-July in this region, the lowest values recorded since the Atlantic entered a multidecadal active period in the mid-1990s.

—The expected presence of a developing El Niño this autumn, which will favor reinforcement of the high wind shear that's prevailed over the MDR.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Quasi-Active-Tropics-Many-Named-Storms-Little-Serious-Threat

Derrick01 · Aug 20, 2018

silenttype01 said:
I don't think the hurricane season is over as hurricane Irma affected Florida at the beginning of September last year.

We are just lucky so far.

Yeah if anything we're in the prime part of the season right now. Fortunate so far but until september's over we're not really in the clear.

MrNelson · Aug 20, 2018

Smiles said:
I am sorry for the bump but I was just wondering as someone who has been through a few of them in Haiti and Florida and even Bridgeport Connecticut.

What happened the the Hurricanes this season? Not that we did not get enough last year was horrid for so many but I was wondering if anyone has found out why the season is quiet and how we can make them all like this?

We're entering the peak part of the season now. Even relatively quiet seasons can have really intense storms form around this time.

Chaotic-Strike · Aug 21, 2018

Smiles said:
I am sorry for the bump but I was just wondering as someone who has been through a few of them in Haiti and Florida and even Bridgeport Connecticut.

What happened the the Hurricanes this season? Not that we did not get enough last year was horrid for so many but I was wondering if anyone has found out why the season is quiet and how we can make them all like this?

September 10th is usually the peak of the season.

So don't get complacent.

Smiles · Aug 21, 2018

This thread was so quiet, did not expect so many replies, thanks everyone. I get the idea I should not put my hopes up on expectations. I still hope things stays quiet for Hurricanes.

MrJames · Aug 21, 2018

Harvey was named on August 17th last year and made landfall in Texas on the 26th. Irma was in the first half of September and Maria was in the second half.

Wubby · Aug 21, 2018

They're all in Asia this year. We're on #19 and 20 at the moment one right after the other.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

smoothj · Aug 21, 2018

I thought hurricane season was over

perfectchaos007 · Sep 2, 2018

Gulf coast needs to keep an eye out if Gordon forms

Maquiladora · Sep 2, 2018

Tropical Storm expected to impact the Florida Keys and Gulf Coast in the coming days.

East Coast should also keep an eye on the potential for a hurricane in about 10 days, but that is only a possibility for now.

BasilZero · Sep 2, 2018

Maquiladora said:
Tropical Storm expected to impact the Florida Keys and Gulf Coast in the coming days.

East Coast should also keep an eye on the potential for a hurricane in about 10 days, but that is only a possibility for now.

I'm guessing the Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/etc will be somewhat affected by regular rain but will dodge pretty much the entire hurricane?

pulsemyne · Sep 2, 2018

I think we could be looking at a low category hurricane once it gets into the gulf. Should be enough hot water there to help with formation.

Pwnz · Sep 2, 2018

Head to Austin but weaken for gentle rain pls.

BasilZero · Sep 2, 2018

Pwnz said:
Head to Austin but weaken for gentle rain pls.

lol

perfectchaos007 · Sep 2, 2018

If it does strengthen to a hurricane I think Alabama mississipi should be prepared for the direct hit. Strengthening usually steers storms north

Atlantic Hurricane season 2018 |OT| Trying to stay safe and dry on the coasts

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