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Nintendo stock down almost 7% after the E3 showcase (down another 5.27% per Tokyo Stock Exchange)
- Thread starter Deleted member 8196
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You uh, didn't check the dates for those did you?
Spiderman-September
DQ XI- september
Tomb raider-september
Yakuza kiwami 2-december
Im not counting Jurassic park because i think thats a you thing (there's a new game coming out? Ive never seen it), and as for indies, lol, like the switch doesnt have those too.
So all of the big games are 3 months out or longer. I guess sonys doomed.
Fairly certain you do--"Stand-alone" just means there is a physical version as well.
True, also even if Pokemon and Smash sell millions and prove system sellers, what will drive the hardware sales till November? Tennis? Octopath? Splatoon / Xeno expansions? I mean ok maybe there are a lot of stuff coming for the current owners but can those things convince other people to jump on board?
"A lot riding on smash and pokemon this year" well yeah, cause those two together will probably sell more than the collective first party releases of Sony or Microsoft in 2018
Legit completely forgot about Octopath and Mario Tennis when I originally made the post. But there is still a point there since I dont believe a 3DS MonHun port and Xeno 2 DLC would actually sell a lot of systems. I could be wrong though, I dont know how much people are actually starving for monhun.
I agree, it doesn't take a rocket chemist to figure out that the games they had from last year were hold over ports from the wiiu. They sandbagged their games from the last two years to make it look like they had the ability to output more games for launch.
This is true but let's not act like 3DS wasn't still going strong when Wii U days were numbered. Those devs are probably still transitioning
I agree with you on those ports, especially now that Monster Hunter is on PS4/XB1. Might be some down months until Smash hits for sure.
The show Nintendo put on at E3 is the kind of show you maybe put in AFTER you sell 20 million units, not before.
Awful mistake wasting people's time with Smash. They could and should have easily saved it for Treehouse
Awful mistake wasting people's time with Smash. They could and should have easily saved it for Treehouse
They have a mainline game installment of the biggest media franchise in the world, too
Yeah I just don't think the Switch will reach its 2018 sales forecast with the lineup of games shown. Not that the titles are poor and wont sell well, but Nintendo clearly still struggles to release at least one full new game per month. Instead of relying on 3rd parties to fill the gaps, Nintendo needs to take the MS approach by acquiring some small, yet high quality, developers to assist with output. If Nintendo doesn't trust these developers to handle their flagship IP's, then let them create new IP's (or revive dormant IP's like StarTropics).
You realize Nintendo is a single publisher. How many other publishers out there churn out new AAA entries to their games every year that aren't your typical annual stuff like sports games.
The Switch was never going to get AAA so the stuff like Overcooked and Stardew Valley which sell really well are what are going to fill the library. The only big third party series that may see light on the Switch and sell like 5m units is Monster Hunter. Nothing else will approach that realm. This has been known for a while.
Like I said, the third party games that will be having big sales on the Switch are all likely going to be indie games. Fighter may cross a million though.
Sure but Super Mario Party will outsell all of those easily too.
People are either trolling, clueless, or have lost their damn minds.
Octopath Traveler doesn't count as a new game because..?
Sony had a big gun released quite recently and is in a bigger momentum right now. The last Nintendo Switch big gun was Super Mario Odyssey.
The funny thing is thats exactly what they did for Super Mario Odyssey last year, and that is basically the Switches biggest game.
Its clear they just had nothing to show for 2018 and hid behind Sakurai
This is a fair point. But Nintendo some keeps this thing (3ds)rolling. It makes you wonder a few years down the road if the switch be in the 3ds position and still selling in records as far as uimts sold when these things are $150
Edit : edited
Yeah i missed that. Still, not a lot of new games for a few months.
I think it's a combo of still having studios making 3DS games well into the life cycle of the Switch, combined with a number of their teams/partner studios being small, and many of them unprepared for development on the Switch. I mean you basically have a number of their teams that have been working on 3DS hardware for years, having to make a massive jump, adjust to new engines, etc.
The questions are, why weren't they more prepared after the last couple years of the 3DS and WiiU were so dry? Why were/are they still releasing 3DS software? I think eventually this will come together, but obviously it's going to be a slower process than expected.
Regardless of the two franchises popularity, the real problem with the direct is that they are right back to how they were during the Wii U era. Just focusing on one game and then kinda some small trailers here and there. Historically a console's 2nd year at e3 is when they go crazy and show off a TON of games that were in the dev pipeline during the console's early stages but are now in a state where they have something to show. It's just frustrating to expect more and get the same.
Not in the one to two months left in the year once those games are out.
The weird thing is, now that both of their portable and console devs are united there should be no excuse for a year like 2018.
You would expect to get close to 3DS plus WiiU output combined, and not slightly better than just WiiU for 2018
You said nothing exciting until October. All these games are September or earlier.
They will sell the target amount with Smash, Pokémon, and fortnite. I'll bet my avatar on it.
Deleted member 18807
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Good point mentioning Labo. I remember the reveal trailer having lots of different projects including a cardboard photographic camera. Are they really going to cancel everything and drop the Labo brand entirely like this? Seems imprudent and harsh from a Nintendo perspective, they tend to stick to bad ideas until it's mostly milked down (see Miitomo)
It's actually the opposite of the Wii U, they pretty much went into panic mode and had stellar 2013 and 2014 E3s where tons of stuff for the future was shown
Many multiplatform third party titles will not release on Switch (RE: Devil May Cry 5, Kingdom Hearts III, SoulCalibur VI, Dead or Alive 6, Resident Evil 2 Remake, etc.) and many of those that are will be released way after other platforms (RE: Dragon Ball Fighterz, Valkyria Chronicles 4, Dragon Quest XI, Dark Souls Remastered, etc.). That seems to always be the issue with Nintendo consoles. You can't hope for first party games to sustain the console library throughout its whole lifecycle.
This is why you need to INVEST like others companies....but Nintendo and their hurr durr way of think will affect them in the future, even harder than WiiU at some point, they don't have a second pillar to save them.
And the evolution from 3DS to Switch is like a big wall for small developers, which will jump to make mobile games instead.
only spider man is the only game on that list that make me hype, like after seeing TLOU2, it makes tomb raider look like a 360 game
No Bayonetta 3, No Metriod Prime Game, not even that stupid Star Fox Retro racing game. This was their second E3 for Switch and they blew it.
I think first parties in general blew it this year so Nintendo is not alone. MS had a great action packed conference but only three big exclusives in Forza, Gears and Halo. Something they have been relying on for like a decade now. Sony had a disappointing conference with a baffling Death Stranding demo and an underwhelming GoT demo. Not sure how many times i need to see Spiderman at E3. And that was it as far as big AAA first party games go.
Nintendo somehow managed to top both Sony and MS and showed just a Smash game that doesnt even look current gen. I dont know what Nintendo is doing. At least Phill finally decided to acquire some studios four years into this gen. A bit too late for this gen, but there is hope for next gen. Nintendo needs to follow suit. Especially now that we are seeing fewer and fewer current gen games get ported to the Switch.
I think first parties in general blew it this year so Nintendo is not alone. MS had a great action packed conference but only three big exclusives in Forza, Gears and Halo. Something they have been relying on for like a decade now. Sony had a disappointing conference with a baffling Death Stranding demo and an underwhelming GoT demo. Not sure how many times i need to see Spiderman at E3. And that was it as far as big AAA first party games go.
Nintendo somehow managed to top both Sony and MS and showed just a Smash game that doesnt even look current gen. I dont know what Nintendo is doing. At least Phill finally decided to acquire some studios four years into this gen. A bit too late for this gen, but there is hope for next gen. Nintendo needs to follow suit. Especially now that we are seeing fewer and fewer current gen games get ported to the Switch.
Meh. I'll have to disagree.
Yeah, last year if you told me there would be a Pokemon coming out this year it would have sounded crazy. I would also have assumed that it would have been a proper mainline Pokemon game though, not some weird/lame Pokemon Go spinoff that is frankly pretty watered down...doesn't even have wild battles. Add to that it's pretty lackluster technically and it's not exactly what I would expect for its debut on a home console. It just seems like something they hastily threw together because they knew the lineup was shallow. Certainly not something I'd consider buying, and I doubt it will sell anywhere near as many systems as a proper entry. Sure, Pokemon Go was a phenomenon. It was also a F2P mobile game...expectations are much different and what they showed isn't anywhere near meeting them.
I wasn't expecting Megatons at all. I was just expecting a decent lineup. There's a ridiculous amount of things they could reasonably have done. Metroid Prime Trilogy Port, GameCube virtual console (or how about ANY virtual console).
Nintendo knows they're in this by themselves. They made the choice to not get third party support when they released and underpowered/underfeatured console. They should have been more prepared with software. They weren't. Sony/MS can afford to have a poor lineup every few years because they get the big releases.
Again, disagree. What did we not know about Smash? Everything in it is basically stuff that has been in all the other entries. It's exactly what anybody would have expected from Smash at this point. No need to spend 20 minutes detailing how you brought back all the stuff from all the other games, that can be summarized in a 2 minute trailer.
I bet at least 10mi units for Pokemon in 2018 and at least 5million for Smash in 2018.
LTD together they will sell over 25mi.
It's irrelevant whether they're producing more output than the other two because they keep going to the same well for water too many times. Their catalogue is too narrow. The people that will buy Smash and Pokemon likely already own a Switch because they purchased Mario and Zelda. What Nintendo need is a more expansive genre library. They make too many "cartoon-y" games and while there is no problem with that whatsoever, they're not going to be able to tap into other demographics and groups if they don't step away from that formula and offer something a little different. Whether or not they're even capable of doing that is another matter entirely.
Despite what many people here call a lack of games and are worried about sales figures, didn't Gamespot just recently come out and say that the Switch sales haven't lost momentum and they're still flying off the shelves?
If anyone thinks that shit will slow down with a Pokemon and Smash on the way....
lol.
If anyone thinks that shit will slow down with a Pokemon and Smash on the way....
lol.
Pokémon Sun & Moon sold 14.69 million units in the first month and 10 days of sale.
I mean the original statement is a bit foolish as it's unlikely, but let's not act like Pokémon doesn't sell
Well I think really the switches bread and butter is the Indies. It makes it a very attractive system. I think the 3ds developers should transition nicely. It's should fit in their scope quite well.
Their E3 sucked both in terms of first and third parties. I don't know if we can make a direct correlation with the stock market, but if there is any, it's well deserved. I hope the backlash will serve as a wake-up call for them, but it's Nintendo we're talking about.
Nintendo clearly doesn't want to tap into the same market that say, The Last of Us 2 wants to tap into. The same way one could look at Sony's briefing and say that Sony doesn't want to tap into the same market Nintendo obviously does, which is the mega-casual market. Nintendo isn't about to make a photo-realistic, violent action game because that's not the kind of thing they WANT to make, nor is it the kind of thing that the majority of say, Wii owners want to play. There's a whole market that Xbox and PS aren't tapping into that Nintendo IS, something to keep in mind.
I follow a ton of musicians on instagram who clearly aren't gamers, but guess what, a shit load of them use the Switch to play games like Mario Kart or Tennis on the road. They're not lugging around a PS4 Pro to play The Last of Us 2 on a 4k TV on their tour bus lol.
Same goes for a ton of athletes lately, so many of them are posting pics with their Switches. And there've been a TON of people saying things like "I couldn't care less about this Pokemon game, but my kids cannot wait for it."
That's the thing Nintendo wants to tap into, not the thing you're referring to.
I wonder why the "Nintendo is doooomed" meme is prevalent. Have anyone actually claimed that Nintendo is in serious trouble as a company because of this?
How is the Switch situation in Japan these days in regards to stock? I havnt seen any reports of sellouts like last year, but has the supply VS demand being met? In other words, can you basically just walk into any gaming store in Japan and pick up a Switch in these days?
Mainline entries on a much cheaper platform with an already huge install base.
It's not really comparable to the second rate spinoffs on an expensive console with a small (albeit impressive considering how long it's been out) install base. Why would you spend $400 bucks when you can likely wait till next year for a proper mainline entry and likely a cheaper entry point for the console itself?
I don't know how representative I am of fence sitters....
But this is definitely where I am at.
Especially after Wii u. Nintendo's goodwill credit, is gone. I no longer have faith Nintendo will reliably release the franchises I buy their systems for, or if they do release games in a franchise I want, it might not be in the form of experience I buy that franchise for.
I have breath of the wild on Wii u. So as of right now, and for the rest of this year, I once again have no reason compelling enough to buy a Wii u.
I will just have a cool peice of kit with tons of potential, with nothing to play, because as it stands, I will burn through all the games on the system I want in my first month of owning it, and I see nothing for me in the pipeline of the next year.
So I wait.
Having a market cap of that size is next to impossible for them unless they venture into other markets in a huge way. To put that into perspective, that's around what AT&T and Verizon are valued at right now.
The stock market will never learn though. Early on the Wii era Nintendo reached 100 billion USD market cap because the stock market thought they would be the next Apple, but if you were even remotely familiar with their history you would have known that was never going to happen.
Also, you're mistaken in regards to their investments. They've continued to grow their internal studios exponentially over the years; just because you don't see in the news "Nintendo acquired X company" doesn't mean they're not growing. Their competitors buy up existing studios because that's a lot easier than growing existing ones or building new ones from the ground up.
They just spent hundreds of millions in merging their software workforce to support one hybrid system + mobile. It may not seem like a lot at first glance but having all the development pipeline streamlined under one banner and 95% of it dedicated to one system has tremendous value in the long term.
What you just described is a perfect recipe for a crash. Look at Vivendi who had lots of resources at one point and were extremely close to taking over Ubisoft but had to pull out at the last minute because they blew all their money on acquisitions in a very short amount of time and without a proper long term plan.
The way I see it is Nintendo sticking to their strengths and taking risks only where they need to, because the reality is that they're in a highly unpredictable market, in an industry whose interests at large often conflict with theirs, and have competitors that are much larger than they are. They're not sitting on 10-15% of their own stock and 10 trillion yen in cash reserves just for the hell of it; they're doing that because rainy days are guaranteed.
We're less than half-way through the year and we already have 2 of those, so 2 more of the same size is more likely. There's no way to know for sure though.
The supply is fine selling around 40k each week.
It is down in April and up in May... flat for the FY.
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