Lost another 5%. I'm losing money on the stock now from when I bought in May 2017, and it's close to being below what it was when Switch was introduced. After a record breaking first year. Pretty amazing how bad it's doing. I only invest for the fun of it, so no big deal, but losing €500 in two days after a shitty E3 is insult to injury.
I'd imagine for the real reason for the drop isn't what Nintendo didn't show, it's what third parties didn't show. The Switch sold like hotcakes last year and I think there was an expectation, or at least a reasonable hope, that third parties would come out in bigger force for the Switch and that E3 2018 is when we would see those announcements. Switch did get Fortnite which is nice, but some major publishers are still significantly lacking in announcing titles for the Switch compared to what they've announced for PS4/Xbox.
To start with a disclaimer, lots of times when Nintendo stock moves it doesn't make any sense; like there could be great news and it drops, or nothing and it surges. Maybe investors see things we don't see, probably they don't see things we see. I've long given up hope to accurately predict what it will do (though I did predict this drop after the end of the direct).
However, I doubt it's this. Nintendo stock (and the company revenue) was at it's highest during the Wii/DS period, and there was no AAA 3rd party support there either. It's been over 12 years that Nintendo is able to make or break its own fortunes, so I don't think investors will be considering the other companies that much. In any case it's probably giving investors too much credit anyway to understand the market to that degree.
I think (outside of some private fan investors getting angry and pulling out) this enormous slump is due to two reasons:
- Large stock traders probably have Twitter crawlers that can automatically buy and sell based on early sentiment.
- After a weak H1 and Labo failing to light the charts on fire (so far), investors are looking for news that can increase revenue and turn the tide. But Nintendo didn't show anything big and new. In fact, the lineup that they showed was actively worse than what we already knew about. Fire Emblem got delayed, Yoshi is missing in action, Smash Bros misses most of the holiday season. They only had Mario Party to show for it, but this is not usually a game that can galvanize hardware sales.
I think it really is that simple, and it reflects poorly on Furokawa that he could not read such a simple thing. I wouldn't even be surprised if there's a latent point three where investors are just finally fed up with Nintendo's obtuse bullshit about their long term plans and are just pulling out completely.