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May 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, June 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Not "huge", but I think it will be a still good month because of Days of Play promo
You also have hardcore gamers in the market for an upgraded machine, be it a Pro or Special Edition. Plus those on Xbox, Switch or PC who a title like Spider-Man pushes over the edge.
If anything the recent glut of PS4 exclusives have given the system a larger than expected boost. Matching, even exceeding, the numbers it did in earlier years.
Of course there are also emerging markets slightly behind the sales curve. Something Sony has a firm grip on versus Microsoft's laser focus on English speaking markets.
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PS4 Pro was $349 June 8 - 18 and the release of the $299 Days of Play Slim SKU.
Xbox One S and X have price cuts currently going at $199/$249/$449 from June 10 - 23.
The E3 hangover.
Well, my post is based on Welfare's posts in this thread (mostly), so you could search for them and take a look yourself. Or maybe Welfare can make his excel sheet public (or whatever he keeps for his data) ;)
However, I got April ready. Took me longer than expected, but I did it while watching the world cup.
XBO
2014 - 115k
2015 - 187k (Trade-in Deals)
2016 - 168k (Discount, Trade-in Deal)
2017 - 110k
2018 - 134k (Madden 18 Free Game Deal)
PS4
2014 - 199k
2015 - 175k
2016 - 175k (Ratchet & Clank)
2017 - 206k (PS4 Slim 1TB @ 299$, Persona 5)
2018 - 325k (God of War 4 + Pro Bundle)
NSW
2017 - 280k (Launch boost, over 280k)
2018 - 170k (Labo, DK (2 days only))
Just to remind people that last year Nintendo was actively selling two devices, 3DS got a lot of major titles in Japan like MHXX(March launch) and DQXI(Obon launch) on top of Pokemon US/UM.
This year the main focus during the summer holiday in Japan for Nintendo/Retailers/3rd Parties will be the Switch.
In 2017 between Week 23(Jun 05 - Jun 11) & Week 36(Aug 28 - Sep 03) Switch sold 696.816 while 3DS sold 524.643 according to M-C. So across the two consoles Nintendo sold 1.221.459 during those 13 weeks in Japan. 2DS XL launch coincided with DQXI and 3DS managed 142.600 during that week. On average Switch+3DS sold 93.958 per week for those 13 weeks - there were certainly bigger titles like DQXI and Splatoon 2 launching but this year I'd say there is more variety and a single devices which retailers and 3rd parties will push.
The major titles during last summer on 3DS and Switch were:
Switch
Arms(100K Launch / 214K by Week 36)
Splatoon 2(648K Launch / 1.1M by Week 36)
Monster Hunter XX(84K Launch / 124K by Week 36)
3DS
Hey! Pikmin(65K Launch / >123K by Week 36);
Layton's Mystery Journey(70K Launch / 120K by Week 36)
Dragon Quest XI(1.1M Launch / 1.7M by Week 36)
The Snack World(97K Launch / 155K by Week 36)
This year there isn't a single game that will launch during the second biggest sales period of Japan that will sell over 1M. However the biggest game in Japan got a major Octo Expansion and will continue to top the charts through-out the next three months. And you have a constantly stream of games that would easily end bringing more titles that ell over >200K during this period than what we got last year like Mario Tennis Aces, Minecraft, Taiko, Octopath, Fortnite, Overcooked 2, Captain Toad etc.
The existing library of evergreens in Japan (Splatoon 2/MK8D/Zelda/SMO/DKTF/Kirby/Labo) coupled with these new games should at the very least ensure we see over >950K sales for the Switch in Japan which would ensure the Switch is up YoY by over >35% in Japan for those three months. Personally I expect both Mario Tennis Aces and Minecraft to be wildly successful and end up with over 1M sales in Japan by the end of 2018, Minecraft in particular remains one of the biggest games during holidays like Obon or December.
I also won't be surprised to see the return of the Splatoon 2 Bundle(with the Octo Expansions) - Splatoon 2 should remain the biggest game on the system and continues to be the major driver behind the paid online in Japan. With updates announced going into December at the very least, the game should definitely remain one of the biggest sellers in Japan and a major reason for kids to leave behind their 3DS and pick up a new console during the summer vacation.
If we don't see a Splatoon 2 Bundle, Nintendo could have something else in store like color variation of the Switch.
I don't even want to get into December when Nintendo makes the majority of its sales - if we get no delays and the fall line-up for Japan consists of Pokemon Lets Go, Super Mario Party, Yo-Kai, Dragon Quest Builders 2, Inazuma Eleven... it's going to lead to some crazy numbers in Japan. I'd say that Smash/Pokemon are much bigger franchises in Japan than 3D Mario games and both games will fly past SMO's lifetime sales by the end of 2018 in Japan.
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As much MLB The Show 18 informations as possible please :D
May is getting ready for that PR confirming how expand dong DK became with Tropical Freeze port. That game probably has outsold the original Wii U version by now right?
Pretty awesome having a May in which all three consoles had their best May yet (obviously, more impressive for the two of them that are 4+ years old!)
With that said, I'll play armchair analyst as well. I still believe the Switch is going to have a fantastic year, just not the gargantuan one they predicted. The Switch being flat for the first two months of the fiscal year is a tough start in one that they hope to sell significantly more than last fiscal year. They also don't have something of the caliber (sales-wise) as Splatoon 2 releasing in the next few months so sales are likely not to increase over last year (although it was severely supply-constrained for much of the summer...). So, that likely leaves them with the humongous task of not just beating last holiday season, but smashing it (pun obviously intended).
I do think Nintendo will sell more Switches this year than last, but not by much. Here's some negatives/positives about this possibility:
+++++ Smash and Pokemon are phenomenons. Games like Mario Party, Octopath and others compliment the "heavy-hitters" this year and should keep momentum going.
+++ Improved library of games.
++ Bundles and maybeee a price cut? I think a Pokemon Switch bundle is a near certainty for the holiday season.
+ Switch is showing to be a juggernaut for indie titles and its portability really is a selling point.
+ Likely won't have supply issues like they had much of the last year.
Here's the negatives:
- They have to sell significantly more Switches than last holiday season in a year that they released an excellent Mario game and had a Mario bundle. While I know vast numbers of these people do exist, is Smash/Pokemon the tipping point for them? I'd imagine there's a heck of a lot of crossover between Zelda, Mario, Splatoon and Mario Kart fans who they've already sold a console to and Pokemon/Smash fans.
- It isn't the "new" thing anymore and it's apparent that while it is extremely successful, it's not the juggernaut like the Wii was for a time and some of its momentum has stalled.
- Smash is missing Black Friday and launching just a few weeks before Christmas.
- In my opinion, a much stiffer competition software wise than last year by their competitors during the holiday season. Red Dead 2 and Battle Royale modes in Call of Duty and Battlefield are going to sell a gazillion copies. Are they going to be the "hotness" this holiday season like Nintendo was last year?
- I foresee Xbox and PS4 being wayyy more aggressive with their pricing this holiday season. They'll both be five year old consoles and they'll want to lock people in to their ecosystem with new consoles on the horizon.
- As someone who Pokemon has never appealed to, I'm always floored by the insane success of the series and my relative ignorance of it, but this version seems like it might be tough. It's not the version that appeals to the "hardcore" fan and it's trying to reach the legions of Pokemon Go fans who are used to playing a free to play game. Probably the cheapest those Go fans who do not own a Switch yet will be able to get in to the Switch versions will be paying at minimum $300 IF there is a bundle. Let me be clear, I think this game will sell BIG time, but I think its reach might not be as significant as some might think. Will some wait for the "real" Pokemon game next year?
- This might be more a "me" complaint, but it's obvious the Switch isn't the nostalgia machine myself, and I'd predict mostly everyone else, thought it would be when it launched. I bought a Switch for the tent-pole Nintendo exclusives knowing they come sporadically throughout the year with the thinking that I could "plug" the holes in the lengthy doldrums of releases by playing SNES, N64, Gamecube and other games I have immense nostalgia for. While the proof is in the pudding and the Mini consoles obviously sell, I want nothing to do with them. I want to buy my games a la carte without the hassle of plugging in a separate console. Let me be clear, these Mini consoles sell! They just don't add to the Switch total. Removing the "nostalgia-machine" aspect of the Switch is a HUGE blow to it for me and I'm sure some others. I know, I know, the online service will have some NES titles (I'd assume it will improve over time...), but never in my wildest dreams did I think it would be extremely unlikely I'd be able to play the vast majority of past VC games 1.5 years+ after the Switch launch.
- Online. I know, it's cheap. But as someone who doesn't have interest in the smattering of NES games they'll likely offer or sadly, Smash, it's just basically a $20 charge that removes functionality from games I already own. I only own a handful of Switch games and only one of them uses online significantly, Mario Kart. So, my game I've had for a year and a half gets worse without any real net benefit for me just with the added wrinkle that part of my old game is locked out unless I want to pay up. It's the principal of the payment that bothers me, not the amount. I'd almost rather pay more so they'd actually make relevant strides in their online offering than paying just $20.
I know the last two negatives were my beefs primarily, but I still think it takes some of the "shine" off the Switch. Many bought the Switch thinking online would be free and they'd be able to take Mario 64 with them on the road and these things are obviously not happening. It's still a monumental success, but it's just that selling significantly more than last year will be a tough task.
With that said, I'll play armchair analyst as well. I still believe the Switch is going to have a fantastic year, just not the gargantuan one they predicted. The Switch being flat for the first two months of the fiscal year is a tough start in one that they hope to sell significantly more than last fiscal year. They also don't have something of the caliber (sales-wise) as Splatoon 2 releasing in the next few months so sales are likely not to increase over last year (although it was severely supply-constrained for much of the summer...). So, that likely leaves them with the humongous task of not just beating last holiday season, but smashing it (pun obviously intended).
I do think Nintendo will sell more Switches this year than last, but not by much. Here's some negatives/positives about this possibility:
+++++ Smash and Pokemon are phenomenons. Games like Mario Party, Octopath and others compliment the "heavy-hitters" this year and should keep momentum going.
+++ Improved library of games.
++ Bundles and maybeee a price cut? I think a Pokemon Switch bundle is a near certainty for the holiday season.
+ Switch is showing to be a juggernaut for indie titles and its portability really is a selling point.
+ Likely won't have supply issues like they had much of the last year.
Here's the negatives:
- They have to sell significantly more Switches than last holiday season in a year that they released an excellent Mario game and had a Mario bundle. While I know vast numbers of these people do exist, is Smash/Pokemon the tipping point for them? I'd imagine there's a heck of a lot of crossover between Zelda, Mario, Splatoon and Mario Kart fans who they've already sold a console to and Pokemon/Smash fans.
- It isn't the "new" thing anymore and it's apparent that while it is extremely successful, it's not the juggernaut like the Wii was for a time and some of its momentum has stalled.
- Smash is missing Black Friday and launching just a few weeks before Christmas.
- In my opinion, a much stiffer competition software wise than last year by their competitors during the holiday season. Red Dead 2 and Battle Royale modes in Call of Duty and Battlefield are going to sell a gazillion copies. Are they going to be the "hotness" this holiday season like Nintendo was last year?
- I foresee Xbox and PS4 being wayyy more aggressive with their pricing this holiday season. They'll both be five year old consoles and they'll want to lock people in to their ecosystem with new consoles on the horizon.
- As someone who Pokemon has never appealed to, I'm always floored by the insane success of the series and my relative ignorance of it, but this version seems like it might be tough. It's not the version that appeals to the "hardcore" fan and it's trying to reach the legions of Pokemon Go fans who are used to playing a free to play game. Probably the cheapest those Go fans who do not own a Switch yet will be able to get in to the Switch versions will be paying at minimum $300 IF there is a bundle. Let me be clear, I think this game will sell BIG time, but I think its reach might not be as significant as some might think. Will some wait for the "real" Pokemon game next year?
- This might be more a "me" complaint, but it's obvious the Switch isn't the nostalgia machine myself, and I'd predict mostly everyone else, thought it would be when it launched. I bought a Switch for the tent-pole Nintendo exclusives knowing they come sporadically throughout the year with the thinking that I could "plug" the holes in the lengthy doldrums of releases by playing SNES, N64, Gamecube and other games I have immense nostalgia for. While the proof is in the pudding and the Mini consoles obviously sell, I want nothing to do with them. I want to buy my games a la carte without the hassle of plugging in a separate console. Let me be clear, these Mini consoles sell! They just don't add to the Switch total. Removing the "nostalgia-machine" aspect of the Switch is a HUGE blow to it for me and I'm sure some others. I know, I know, the online service will have some NES titles (I'd assume it will improve over time...), but never in my wildest dreams did I think it would be extremely unlikely I'd be able to play the vast majority of past VC games 1.5 years+ after the Switch launch.
- Online. I know, it's cheap. But as someone who doesn't have interest in the smattering of NES games they'll likely offer or sadly, Smash, it's just basically a $20 charge that removes functionality from games I already own. I only own a handful of Switch games and only one of them uses online significantly, Mario Kart. So, my game I've had for a year and a half gets worse without any real net benefit for me just with the added wrinkle that part of my old game is locked out unless I want to pay up. It's the principal of the payment that bothers me, not the amount. I'd almost rather pay more so they'd actually make relevant strides in their online offering than paying just $20.
I know the last two negatives were my beefs primarily, but I still think it takes some of the "shine" off the Switch. Many bought the Switch thinking online would be free and they'd be able to take Mario 64 with them on the road and these things are obviously not happening. It's still a monumental success, but it's just that selling significantly more than last year will be a tough task.
The person I quoted provided Japanese figures and I thought people were discussing Nintendo's FY target.
I've no doubt that we'd see strong growth in Japan this summer and simply demonstrated why.
If we must only discuss NA than my point would be for people to wait and see what type of effect Mario Tennis Aces & Fortnite have compared to Arms & Splatoon 2. Knowing that Splatoon 2 likely sold around around 1M in the US for 2017 and Fortnite was downloaded 2M times in 24h I can certainly also see summer being stronger for the Switch in the US and other countries. Simply put people continue to overlook that in many respects after April Switch 2018 lineup is a lot stronger than 2017. I think people continue to underestimate Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for some reason, discounting how big of a launch it was for the Switch last year. It's a game that ensured momentum in the West after Zelda's launch and continues to do so. MK8D & Zelda were certainly the main reasons why Switch is down YoY during April/May period in the US.
If a price drop didn't do an awful lot for the Xbox One in May, why should it fare any better in June, especially when the PlayStation 4 has had its first price drop since Black Friday last year?
I am well aware the increase is high, but it's only high because it was nearly at 100K this time last year...
Yes, there is no doubt that an Xbox One S for $199 is great however, there's nothing quite as attractive or alluring on the console compared to Detroit: Become Human or God of War on the PlayStation 4.
I am well aware the increase is high, but it's only high because it was nearly at 100K this time last year...
Yes, there is no doubt that an Xbox One S for $199 is great however, there's nothing quite as attractive or alluring on the console compared to Detroit: Become Human or God of War on the PlayStation 4.
Also if by physical sales Hyrule Warriors Deluxe came in 4th that leads me to believe it had a decent debut no?
Seems like the Wii U ports continue to do well.
Seems like the Wii U ports continue to do well.
Yes, Xbox and Switch by 1-4K units, PS4 by 20-30k?
Rankings will probably be much different with digital counting in.
Hit a snag... the advisory will now be released at 8AM Eastern/5AM Pacific tomorrow. See you then.
Still trying to count how many times Kratos threw his axe for the month?
No
Because Dissidia Final Fantasy NT didn't finish in the top 3 this month.
This is the only suggestion against your idea though.
Wait ... what? Why? What happened?
Why isn't there a thread about this?
Yeah, that's what happens when there is a legit reason to have to get a console.
Good games that can only be played on it.
Nintendo is going to rake in the sales later this year.
I went from thinking the Switch wasn't going to sell that much this soon to thinking it was taking most months to now just trying to ride the PS4 train, lol
I would be absolutely shocked if Xbox comes in 2nd anymore before next year or before their next gen console releases.
If they come in first anytime this year I don't think the forum could handle it.
1X is the most expensive SKU though. That has an impact on number of sales..
PS4 has strategised their release of "high quality" software expertly. MS just cant compete with this. Yet.
Amazon US and Sony have an ongoing dispute likely due other retailers pressuring Sony because of the Prime discount that makes it harder for them to compete.
I've never seen a console with lower sales on year 2 (counting Japan and USA).
This doesn't look good for Switch, hype is dissapearing.
This doesn't look good for Switch, hype is dissapearing.
What Prime discount? And Best Buy technically started it with GCU and they had no issues with Sony stuff.
Later half of the year is where it matters. Q4 should be up by a large amount with Smash and Pokemon.
Prime discount if you pre-order a game. Amazon US offers a healthy discount on those. Much more than Amazon UK and DE do and they are fine. Just Amazon US curiously doesn't allow you to pre-order a single Playstation 1st party game at the moment. After release the games are suddenly available so it is not a stock issue. Best Buy just cancelled GCU too. There is pressure coming from somewhere, probably big retailers
PS4 2nd year (2014) x Switch 2nd year (2018)
Jan - 190k / 270k
Feb - 340k / 280k
Mar - 330k / 310k
Apr - 175k / 170k
May - 155k / 165k
Jun - 370k
Jul - 220k
Aug - 210k
Sep - 355k
Oct - 275k
Nov - 1540k
Dec - 1580k
Switch is ahead by 5k. I see Nintendo reaching 6 million consoles by the end of the year. December will have Switch selling 2 ~ 2.5 million units.
Jan - 190k / 270k
Feb - 340k / 280k
Mar - 330k / 310k
Apr - 175k / 170k
May - 155k / 165k
Jun - 370k
Jul - 220k
Aug - 210k
Sep - 355k
Oct - 275k
Nov - 1540k
Dec - 1580k
Switch is ahead by 5k. I see Nintendo reaching 6 million consoles by the end of the year. December will have Switch selling 2 ~ 2.5 million units.
Or it is Amazon being amazon.
https://www.salon.com/2014/09/27/4_...actices_are_crushing_local_economies_partner/
Funny thing is, now that they dominate online retailing and know their customers intimately, their customers are also getting played.
http://time.com/money/4010101/amazon-lowest-prices/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech...a-cheapest-prices-algorithm-pricing/90756880/
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazin...line-shopping-makes-suckers-of-us-all/521448/
https://williamspaniel.com/2015/03/09/amazons-clever-price-discrimination-strategy/
Tldr: Amazon is a shit company run by a megalomaniac cia contractor.
I love these types of comparisons. We get a lot of great ones in the Media Create threads, undoubtedly because sales information is easier to come by. What are your guesses for the remaining months? I see Switch being down a little down for June, much better in July, flat or under for August, way down for September, way up for October, close or less for November, and way up for December. 2 million+ for December seems a lock for Switch, I agree.
June will be up YoY. That was when stock was still low, only to get better in July. I think we will see Switch down YoY or flat from July to October, then up YoY in November and December if no price cut happens before the holidays.
March and April were down for obvious reasons (launch, Mario Kart), but momentum is swinging the other way now.
In May, the U.S. was flat YOY, and Japan was up 23%.
In June, Switch has already sold as much in three weeks in Japan as it sold in five weeks in 2017. It should end the month around 75-80% higher. Likewise, in the U.S., it should be up a good deal considering its ARMS, Mario Kart (month 2), and Zelda (month 3) vs. Fortnite, Mario Tennis Aces, Minecraft physical, Crash, and others (Wolfenstein, etc.).
For July, I expect flat for Japan (due to Splatoon 2 launch), but for ROTW to be up based on spillover from the June releases plus Octopath Traveler and Captain Toad. We'll see how things continue to shape up after that.