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2023 Oscars Nominations.

bishopp135

bishopp135

Member
Oct 29, 2017
985
The Oscar Nominations will be announced on January 24 8:30 AM ET/ 5:30 AM PT and When they get announced I will update the OP.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhdaLnKMJHA

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What are your predictions and wishes? For the people on the cusp of nominations I'm hoping for Paul Mescal and Stephanie Hsu.



View: https://i.imgur.com/yTajUQp.mp4


EDIT: The Nominees

variety.com

Oscar Nominations 2023: ‘Everything Everywhere’ Leads With 11 Nods, Followed by ‘Banshees’ and ‘All Quiet’

See the full Oscars 2023 nominees.
variety.com variety.com

Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson ("The Banshees of Inisherin")
Brian Tyree Henry ("Causeway")
Judd Hirsch ("The Fabelmans")
Barry Keoghan ("The Banshees of Inisherin")
Ke Huy Quan ("Everything Everywhere All at Once")

Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett ("Black Panther: Wakanda Forever")
Hong Chau ("The Whale")
Kerry Condon ("The Banshees of Inisherin")
Jamie Lee Curtis ("Everything Everywhere All at Once")
Stephanie Hsu ("Everything Everywhere All at Once")

Best Animated Feature Film
"Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio" (Netflix)
"Marcel the Shell With Shoes On" (A24)
"Puss in Boots: The Last Wish" (DreamWorks Animation)
"The Sea Beast" (Netflix)
"Turning Red" (Pixar)

Best Animated Short Film
"The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse" (Apple TV+)
"The Flying Sailor"
"Ice Merchants"
"My Year of Dicks"
"An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It"

Best Costume Design
"Babylon" (Paramount Pictures)
"Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" (Marvel Studios)
"Elvis" (Warner Bros)
"Everything Everywhere All at Once" (A24)
"Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris" (Focus Features)

Best Live Action Short
"An Irish Goodbye" (Floodlight Pictures)
"Ivalu" (M&M Productions)
"Le Pupille" (Disney+)
"Night Ride"
"The Red Suitcase" (Cynefilms)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
"All Quiet on the Western Front" (Netflix)
"The Batman" (Warner Bros.)
"Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" (Marvel Studios)
"Elvis" (Warner Bros.)
"The Whale" (A24)

Best Original Score
"All Quiet on the Western Front"
"Babylon"
"The Banshees of Inisherin"
"Everything Everywhere All at Once"
"The Fabelmans"

Best Sound
"All Quiet on the Western Front" (Netflix)
"Avatar: The Way of Water" (20th Century Studios)
"The Batman" (Warner Bros.)
"Elvis" (Warner Bros.)
"Top Gun: Maverick" (Paramount Pictures)

Best Adapted Screenplay
"All Quiet on the Western Front" (Netflix)
"Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery" (Netflix)
"Living" (Sony Pictures Classics)
"Top Gun: Maverick" (Paramount Pictures)
"Women Talking" (MGM/United Artists Releasing)

Best Original Screenplay
"The Banshees of Inisherin" (Searchlight Pictures)
"Everything Everywhere All at Once" (A24)
"The Fabelmans" (Universal Pictures)
"Tár" (Focus Features)
"Triangle of Sadness" (Neon) "An Irish Goodbye" (Floodlight Pictures)

Best Cinematography
"All Quiet on the Western Front" (Netflix)
"Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths" (Netflix)
"Elvis" (Warner Bros.)
"Empire of Light" (Searchlight Pictures)
"Tár" (Focus Features)

Best Documentary Feature Film
"All That Breathes" (HBO Documentary Films)
"All the Beauty and the Bloodshed" (Neon)
"Fire of Love" (National Geographic Documentary Films/Neon)
"A House Made of Splinters"
"Navalny" (CNN/Warner Bros.)

Best Documentary Short Film
"The Elephant Whisperers" (Netflix)
"Haulout"
"How Do You Measure a Year?" (Jay Rosenblatt Films)
"The Martha Mitchell Effect" (Netflix)
"Stranger at the Gate"

Best Film Editing
"The Banshees of Inisherin" (Searchlight Pictures)
"Elvis" (Warner Bros.)
"Everything Everywhere All at Once" (A24)
"Tár"
"Top Gun: Maverick" (Paramount)

Best International Feature Film
"All Quiet on the Western Front" (Germany)
"Argentina, 1985" (Argentina)
"Close" (Belgium)
"EO" (Poland)
"The Quiet Girl" (Ireland)

Best Original Song
"Applause" from "Tell It Like a Woman"
"Hold My Hand" from "Top Gun: Maverick"
"Lift Me Up" from "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever"
"Naatu Naatu" from "RRR"
"This Is a Life" from "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Best Production Design
"All Quiet on the Western Front" (Netflix)
"Avatar: The Way of Water" (20th Century Studios)
"Babylon" (Paramount Pictures)
"Elvis" (Warner Bros)
"The Fabelmans" (Universal Pictures)

Best Visual Effects
"All Quiet on the Western Front" (Netflix)
"Avatar: The Way of Water" (20th Century Studios)
"The Batman" (Warner Bros.)
"Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" (Marvel Studios)
"Top Gun: Maverick" (Paramount Pictures) Austin Butler ("Elvis")

Best Lead Actor
Austin Butler ("Elvis")
Colin Farrell ("The Banshees of Inisherin")
Brendan Fraser ("The Whale")
Paul Mescal ("Aftersun")
Bill Nighy ("Living")

Best Lead Actress
Cate Blanchett ("Tár")
Ana de Armas ("Blonde")
Andrea Riseborough ("To Leslie")
Michelle Williams ("The Fabelmans")
Michelle Yeoh ("Everything Everywhere All at Once")

Best Director
Martin McDonagh ("The Banshees of Inisherin")
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert ("Everything Everywhere All at Once")
Steven Spielberg ("The Fabelmans")
Todd Field ("Tár")
Ruben Östlund ("Triangle of Sadness")

Best Picture
"All Quiet on the Western Front" (Netflix)
"Avatar: The Way of Water" (20th Century Studios)
"The Banshees of Inisherin" (Searchlight Pictures)
"Elvis" (Warner Bros.)
"Everything Everywhere All at Once" (A24)
"The Fabelmans" (Universal Pictures)
"Tár" (Focus Features)
"Top Gun: Maverick" (Paramount Pictures)
"Triangle of Sadness" (Neon)
"Women Talking" (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
 
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Ocean Panda

Ocean Panda

Banned
Oct 25, 2020
164
I think EEAAO is either going to sweep or get ignored (little in between), but it really feels like the type of indie darling with mainstream appeal that could do the former.
 
Ubik

Ubik

Member
Nov 13, 2018
2,517
Canada
It's unbelievable that Colin Farrel has never even been nominated. That streak better end. Obviously it's Brendan Frasers year to win, but gimme that Colin nom after all the snubs for In Bruge, The Lobster, and Killing of a Sacred Deer.
 
ExhaustedWalrus

ExhaustedWalrus

Member
Oct 28, 2017
5,878
I'm thinking things will be fairly predictable, but think there might be a surprise Andrea Risenbrough best actress non given all the crazy campaigning that's happened for her the past couple of weeks. Also, I think All Quiet On The Western Front might get more noms than most expect.
 
Realyst

Realyst

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,165
I'd be shocked if EEAAO doesn't get the nod in all the major categories. Momentum is on that movie's side at the moment. Hoping that Stephanie Hsu gets recognized, even if she doesn't go on to win. Would love for Michelle Yeoh to go on to win for Best Actress, but I'm not currently seeing her beating Cate Blanchett.

The most interesting race will be the Best Actor race between Colin Farrell for Banshees of Inisherin, and Brendan Fraser for The Whale. Those two have been campaigning hard in the last few weeks, with Brendan having the most momentum from what I can see. Still, Colin won the Golden Globe over him already (and it might've been an asterisk win…considering Brendan's history with those awards).
 
hiredhand

hiredhand

Member
Feb 6, 2019
3,176
My semi-realistic wishes are Triangle of Sadness for picture, Joseph Kosinski for director and Moonage Daydream for doc.

My long shot wishes are The Blue Caftan for international film, LCD Soundsystem for song and Mark Rylance (Bones and All) for supporting actor.

My "never going to happen in million years" wishes are Lubna Azabal (The Blue Caftan) and Mia Goth (Pearl) for lead actress, The Northman for picture and Zlatko Burić (Triangle of Sadness) for supporting actor.
 
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UberTag

UberTag

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
15,472
Kitchener, ON
ExhaustedWalrus said:
Also, I think All Quiet On The Western Front might get more noms than most expect.
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At last count I presently have All Quiet nabbing no less than 10 total nominations. Which isn't quite the dominant haul it landed at BAFTA but is still pretty darn impressive.

That includes a no guts, no glory prediction that Felix Kammerer racks up a nom for Best Actor. He was the one nomination that missed at BAFTA (while the film bagged its other 14) but what ultimately made the cut at BAFTA is kind of moot given the juried nature of the acting categories. Nighy was always going to clear the Top 3. They were always going to jury in the other frontrunner (Fraser, Butler, Farrell). And then they decided to roll with two Brits for the remaining two slots (Dickinson and Kaluuya could've been possibilities as well).

Oscar voting had already wrapped up by the time the BAFTA nominations were revealed... but the one conclusive thing they told us was that All Quiet was strong with the British contingent of the Academy if nothing else. If the film's going to do as well tomorrow morning as many suspect it will, there's no reason to think Kammerer can't surprise as a coattail nomination from out of nowhere.

I adore Mescal and have Aftersun in my Top 3 for the year. But he's kind of found himself as the consensus choice for the 5th nominee entirely by default. He landed a Critics Choice nom in a category of 6 nominees (along with Cruise). He was juried into a nomination at BAFTA where Aftersun clearly underperformed below expectations (they had ZERO excuse not to give Wells a Director nomination and yet they found one). The film missed Screenplay as well. I would be thrilled if Mescal makes the cut as an accidental "we had no one else so let's give it to this damned deserving breakout role" nomination but I see no reason to expect it to actually happen.

The other possibility I could see showing up from out of nowhere for the category is Tom Hanks for A Man Called Otto which opened with an impressive box office haul the weekend Oscar votes were being finalized.

ExhaustedWalrus said:
I'm thinking things will be fairly predictable, but think there might be a surprise Andrea Risenbrough best actress non given all the crazy campaigning that's happened for her the past couple of weeks. Also, I think All Quiet On The Western Front might get more noms than most expect.
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I welcome the chaos of a Riseborough nomination... so long as it doesn't come at the expense of Danielle Deadwyler. If she bumps de Armas, Williams or Davis instead, I say bring it on.

hiredhand said:
My "never going to happen in million years" wishes are Lubna Azabal (The Blue Caftan) and Mia Goth (Pearl) for leading actress, The Northman for picture and Zlatko Burić (Triangle of Sadness) for supporting actor.
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I can actually see the Burić nom happening despite his absence of precursors. Supporting actor is weak enough for him to materialize out of nowhere if Triangle performs as strong as it has here as it has with European voters the past few months.
 
dancingphlower

dancingphlower

Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,111
Everything Everywhere All at Once deserves all of the awards!

I do hope Decision to Leave makes it into the general Best Picture race and not just Best International Film - I already know it's gonna get zero acting nods even though Park Hae-il and Tang Wei killed it so getting a BP nod would a small consolation prize.
 
Tremorah

Tremorah

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Dec 3, 2018
4,958
random-rocks.gif
 
THEVOID

THEVOID

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 27, 2017
22,904
Not expecting any surprises. Would love to see Mia Goth get a nod, but that will never happen. Banshees will probably win BP.
 
Violence Jack

Violence Jack

Drive-in Mutant
Member
Oct 25, 2017
42,090
Another year where these snobs will avoid excellent performances in the horror genre as Mia Goth in Pearl is going to get blanked just like Toni Collette did for Hereditary.
 
Meg Cherry

Meg Cherry

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,318
Seattle, WA
ExhaustedWalrus said:
I'm thinking things will be fairly predictable, but think there might be a surprise Andrea Risenbrough best actress non given all the crazy campaigning that's happened for her the past couple of weeks. Also, I think All Quiet On The Western Front might get more noms than most expect.
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All Quiet is locked for a BP nom after that BAFTA performance, the real question is how much room it takes up in other categories as well.
 
hiredhand

hiredhand

Member
Feb 6, 2019
3,176
UberTag said:
I can actually see the Burić nom happening despite his absence of precursors. Supporting actor is weak enough for him to materialize out of nowhere if Triangle performs as strong as it has here as it has with European voters the past few months.
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I hope you are right but I would still consider Harrelson a more likely candidate as a bigger and more familiar name.
 
thediamondage

thediamondage

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,426
BP (10 max nominees)
Everything Everywhere All At Once (winner)
The Whale
Fablemans
Banshees of Inisherin
Tar
Top Gun Maverick
Avatar Way of Cameron
Elvis
All Quiet
Women Talking

mix of crowd favorites (TGM, Avatar, Elvis), Oscar bait (Fablemans, Women Talking, Tar) and the outsider in the right time at the right spot (EEAAO, Whale)
 
UberTag

UberTag

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
15,472
Kitchener, ON
thediamondage said:
BP (10 max nominees)
Everything Everywhere All At Once (winner)
The Whale
Fablemans
Banshees of Inisherin
Tar
Top Gun Maverick
Avatar Way of Cameron
Elvis
All Quiet
Women Talking

mix of crowd favorites (TGM, Avatar, Elvis), Oscar bait (Fablemans, Women Talking, Tar) and the outsider in the right time at the right spot (EEAAO, Whale)
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I would be thrilled to see Women Talking still crack the Best Picture lineup. I have Triangle of Sadness making the cut instead on the strength of its European support (Palme d'Or win, sweep of the European Film Awards) but would be overjoyed to be proven wrong on this one.
 
QBComics

QBComics

Member
Oct 25, 2017
110
My hope is Rajamouli and RRR surprise in Director and Picture, despite being a no show with the Guilds.
 
ratcliffja

ratcliffja

Member
Oct 28, 2017
5,954
RRR should win all the awards but it probably won't be nominated. EEAAO was pretty good but not sure it deserves many nominations.
 
UberTag

UberTag

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
15,472
Kitchener, ON
QBComics said:
My hope is Rajamouli and RRR surprise in Director and Picture, despite being a no show with the Guilds.
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Director is unlikely given the DGA snub... but I definitely see a path where it winds up in Picture still. It's generated a ton of enthusiasm this awards season as it handily sweeps the Best Song category. It was never going to make a blip on the radar at PGA or SAG and the BAFTAs clearly had an agenda against it so it's not out of the realm of possibility.

I'm not predicting it but it's probably closer to cracking the Top 10 at Picture than many other films folks might be entertaining as alternatives.
 
QBComics

QBComics

Member
Oct 25, 2017
110
UberTag said:
Director is unlikely given the DGA snub... but I definitely see a path where it winds up in Picture still. It's generated a ton of enthusiasm this awards season as it handily sweeps the Best Song category. It was never going to make a blip on the radar at PGA or SAG and the BAFTAs clearly had an agenda against it so it's not out of the realm of possibility.

I'm not predicting it but it's probably closer to cracking the Top 10 at Picture than many other films folks might be entertaining as alternatives.
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Yeah, I'm not expecting it, but hoping passion puts it over the line. Rajamouli's been doing what he needs to do campaign wise, and he's got big name supporters within the director's branch. If anything, he'd be the Hamaguchi of this season (though wildly different in tone lmao -- but same awards campaign manager!)
 
AoM

AoM

Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,330
FYC's picks. Mantz really wanted RRR on the BP list, heh.

Best Animated Feature

- Pinocchio
- Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
- Turning Red
- Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
- Wendell & Wild

Best Adapted Screenplay

- Women Talking
- Glass Onion
- The Whale
- Living
- All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Original Screenplay

- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- The Fabelmans
- Tár
- Triangle of Sadness

Best Supporting Actor

- Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
- Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
- Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
- Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Best Supporting Actress

- Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
- Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
- Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
- Hong Chau (The Whale)

Best Actor

- Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
- Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Austin Butler (Elvis)
- Bill Nighy (Living)
- Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)

Best Actress

- Cate Blanchett (Tár)
- Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
- Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
- Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
- Viola Davis (The Woman King)

Best Director

- Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
- Daniel Kwan / Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
- Todd Field (Tár)
- Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)

Best Picture

- Top Gun: Maverick
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- The Fabelmans
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Tár
- Elvis
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- Women Talking
- Glass Onion
- All Quiet on the Western Front
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odiin

odiin

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Oct 27, 2017
3,752
People on the internet are going to be so shocked when they wake up tomorrow and discover Everything Everywhere All at Once wasn't the only film to be released last year.
 
Disco

Disco

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Oct 25, 2017
11,493
Ubik said:
It's unbelievable that Colin Farrel has never even been nominated. That streak better end. Obviously it's Brendan Frasers year to win, but gimme that Colin nom after all the snubs for In Bruge, The Lobster, and Killing of a Sacred Deer.
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Dudes one of the best living actors tbh. I think he should win this year
 
Frodo

Frodo

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Oct 27, 2017
4,338
ratcliffja said:
RRR should win all the awards but it probably won't be nominated. EEAAO was pretty good but not sure it deserves many nominations.
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It most certainly deserves

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actress(es)
Best Original Screenplay
Best Editing

At the very minimum.
 
Sasliquid

Sasliquid

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,308
I expect a EEAAO love in,

Would be very happy to see RRR or Decision to Leave to sneak in to either Best Picture or Best Director
 
shaneo632

shaneo632

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Oct 29, 2017
29,069
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Bummer if Stephanie Hsu doesn't get in. I thought she gave a much better performance than JLC, who while good fun in the film just doesn't really feel like an Oscar-worthy performance to me (more like a career nod).
 
Berry Pie

Berry Pie

Member
Nov 29, 2022
1,217
shaneo632 said:
Bummer if Stephanie Hsu doesn't get in. I thought she gave a much better performance than JLC, who while good fun in the film just doesn't really feel like an Oscar-worthy performance to me (more like a career nod).
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Agreed. Wonder if there also might be some racial bias factored in, in that it's easier to promote a prominent white actress in a super acclaimed movie, as opposed to a relatively unknown Asian actress. Because it's a real shame she's not being acknowledged more in these award nominations from what I've seen.
 
OtisPepperoni

OtisPepperoni

Member
Dec 5, 2017
1,292
It seems like JLC will get a Supporting Actress nom for EEAAO, but that's baffling to me. To give it to her over Hsu, who is just incredible. Name recognition/celebrity I guess.

Edit: Not that Jamie Lee Curtis wasn't great!
 
hiredhand

hiredhand

Member
Feb 6, 2019
3,176
Berry Pie said:
Agreed. Wonder if there also might be some racial bias factored in, in that it's easier to promote a prominent white actress in a super acclaimed movie, as opposed to a relatively unknown Asian actress. Because it's a real shame she's not being acknowledged more in these award nominations from what I've seen.
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More likely it's just that Jamie Lee Curtis has never been nominated so you can sell it as a career nomination. So the same reason why Judd Hirsch has a real shot of getting nominated for what is basically a two scene performance (though admittedly the second one of those scenes is like really really good).

I personally wouldn't nominate either Curtis or Hsu. I wouldn't mind both Yeoh and Quan winning though.
 
THEVOID

THEVOID

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Member
Oct 27, 2017
22,904
thediamondage said:
BP (10 max nominees)
Everything Everywhere All At Once (winner)
The Whale
Fablemans
Banshees of Inisherin
Tar
Top Gun Maverick
Avatar Way of Cameron
Elvis
All Quiet
Women Talking

mix of crowd favorites (TGM, Avatar, Elvis), Oscar bait (Fablemans, Women Talking, Tar) and the outsider in the right time at the right spot (EEAAO, Whale)
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Close to mine.

Top Gun: Maverick ✈️
Avatar 🐋 🌊
Elvis 🎸
Everything Everywhere all at once 🌭
Tar 👱
All Quiet on the Western front 🔫
The Fabelmans 📷
Banshees 👨 👨
RRR 🦁
Woman Talking 👩

Probably missing out on Babylon, but have a good feeling about RRR. I think Banshees for the win in the end.
 
UberTag

UberTag

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
15,472
Kitchener, ON
My predicted nominees in all 23 categories...

BEST PICTURE
  • All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Avatar: The Way of Water
  • Babylon
  • The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Elvis
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • The Fabelmans
  • TÁR
  • Top Gun: Maverick
  • The Whale
DIRECTING
  • Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front)
  • Dan Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
  • Todd Field (TÁR )
  • Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
  • Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
  • Austin Butler (Elvis)
  • Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
  • Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
  • Felix Kammerer (All Quiet on the Western Front)
  • Bill Nighy (Living)
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
  • Cate Blanchett (TÁR )
  • Viola Davis (The Woman King)
  • Ana de Armas (Blonde)
  • Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
  • Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
  • Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
  • Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
  • Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
  • Brad Pitt (Babylon)
  • Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
  • Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
  • Hong Chau (The Whale)
  • Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
  • Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
  • Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
  • The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • The Fabelmans
  • TÁR
  • Triangle of Sadness
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
  • All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Glass Onion
  • She Said
  • The Whale
  • Women Talking
CINEMATOGRAPHY
  • All Quiet on the Western Front
  • The Batman
  • Elvis
  • Empire of Light
  • Top Gun: Maverick
COSTUME DESIGN
  • Babylon
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  • Corsage
  • Elvis
  • Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
FILM EDITING
  • Babylon
  • The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Elvis
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Top Gun: Maverick
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
  • All Quiet on the Western Front
  • The Batman
  • Blonde
  • Elvis
  • The Whale
PRODUCTION DESIGN
  • Avatar: The Way of Water
  • Babylon
  • Elvis
  • The Fabelmans
  • Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
SOUND
  • All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Avatar: The Way of Water
  • Elvis
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Top Gun: Maverick
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
  • Babylon
  • The Banshees of Inisherin
  • The Fabelmans
  • Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
  • Women Talking
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
  • "Applause" (Tell It Like a Woman)
  • "Hold My Hand" (Top Gun: Maverick)
  • "Lift Me Up" (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
  • "Naatu Naatu" (RRR)
  • "The Voice of Dust and Ash" (Dust and Ash)
VISUAL EFFECTS
  • All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Avatar: The Way of Water
  • The Batman
  • Thirteen Lives
  • Top Gun: Maverick
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
  • Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
  • Inu-Oh
  • Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
  • Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
  • Turning Red
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
  • The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
  • Ice Merchants
  • My Year of Dicks
  • New Moon
  • An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
  • All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Argentina, 1985
  • Corsage
  • Decision to Leave
  • The Quiet Girl
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
  • An Irish Goodbye
  • Ivalu
  • Le Pupille
  • The Red Suitcase
  • Warsha
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
  • All That Breathes
  • Fire of Love
  • A House Made of Splinters
  • Navalny
  • The Territory
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
  • 38 at the Garden
  • As Far as They Can Run
  • The Elephant Whisperers
  • Nuisance Bear
  • Stranger at the Gate
FILMS WITH MULTIPLE NOMINATIONS

All Quiet on the Western Front - 9
The Banshees of Inisherin - 9
Everything Everywhere All at Once - 9
Elvis - 8
Babylon - 6
The Fabelmans - 6
Top Gun: Maverick - 6
The Whale - 5
Avatar: The Way of Water - 4
TÁR - 4

The Batman - 3
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - 3
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio - 3
Blonde - 2
Corsage - 2
Women Talking - 2

Shooting to clear 75-80% of my predicted ballot correctly. Last year I hit 72.5% on the dot... so any improvement over that will be taken as a positive outcome.

That said, there are plenty of nominations that I'm not predicting that I'd be thrilled to see should they happen to surprise. Would love to see Women Talking in Best Picture after being thoroughly disrespected just about this entire awards season.
 
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Sean C.

Sean C.

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,797
Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island
Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor both have four nominees that I feel very confident about and then one that is a real wildcard.

A lot of people have settled on Mescal as the fifth guy in Actor, especially with the BAFTA nomination, but none of the possible candidates feel like a perfect fit.

For the fifth in supporting it feels like it's between Hirsch (small role, the film is also losing momentum seemingly) and Redmayne (strong part in a good movie, albeit one that has zero other representation in the award race).
 
GamerJM

GamerJM

Member
Nov 8, 2017
15,712
thediamondage said:
BP (10 max nominees)
Everything Everywhere All At Once (winner)
The Whale
Fablemans
Banshees of Inisherin
Tar
Top Gun Maverick
Avatar Way of Cameron
Elvis
All Quiet
Women Talking

mix of crowd favorites (TGM, Avatar, Elvis), Oscar bait (Fablemans, Women Talking, Tar) and the outsider in the right time at the right spot (EEAAO, Whale)
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These seem to be the 10 most predicted right now and also probably lines up with what I'd guess. Maybe I'd swap Women Talking for Babylon.

WildflowerWildfire said:
Aftersun is so good it'll get overlooked. I think Banshees for best picture.
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I normally watch awards season movies with my parents and it looks like it's getting skipped so I decided to watch it on my own a few days ago and I have to say I really don't see what anyone sees in it. I don't think it uses the medium of DVR recording to its advantage much at all, and it felt like there should have been more to the dad's side of things. The acting is quite good and it's certainly unique in how sort of structureless it is though.
 
UberTag

UberTag

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
15,472
Kitchener, ON
Sean C. said:
A lot of people have settled on Mescal as the fifth guy in Actor, especially with the BAFTA nomination, but none of the possible candidates feel like a perfect fit.
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The thing about Mescal - as much as I'd love to see it and as much as he's deserving - is that his default 5th slot Lead Actor status is largely manufactured. He managed a Critics Choice nom largely out of respect alongside their "predicted Oscar 5" (which included Cruise) due to contributing an integral part of the best reviewed film of the year.

Cruise went on to miss a nomination at the Netflix-sponsored Screen Actors Guild event for Sandler; the Globe miss was expected because of his prickly relationship with the HFPA but the SAG miss was not. And he was never going to get jury saved by BAFTA when he was clearly not Top 3.

Mescal was a clear jury save in the 2nd round of BAFTA as well. They wanted the clear Top 4 in the category - Nighy was probably BAFTA Top 3 and they didn't want to make waves by snubbing any of the Oscar Top 3 - and so they picked their two favourite British performances out of the 4 they had available. Mescal was ALWAYS making that final BAFTA cut. But he was clearly somewhere between 4 and 7 in that initial BAFTA longlist clearance (Kammerer likely was as well given All Quiet's dominance)... and then Aftersun proceeded to lay a proverbial egg and showing all kind of weakness by missing Best Film, Director, Original Screenplay and Editing. Many of those misses were expected but Wells missing director in favour of Chan-wook and Prince-Bythewood (neither of their films made the Best Film longlist cut) in lieu of her being gifted an outstanding British debut consolation prize was not.

So we're left guessing as to just how much exposure to a little indie film like Aftersun has with the Academy. For me, that's one huge question mark. With Cruise clearly looking weak, Sandler like a non-starter, Pope probably less seen than Mescal and Jackman tied to a film that's critic/audience poison, folks are left guessing as to where to turn to fill out their Lead Actor ballot.

The three most likely dart throws as best as I can see (unless you want to default to Mescal / Cruise and roll the dice) are..

- Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) ... doing just fine at the box office but presumably he would've made some kind of noise via pre-release screeners if an awards push was in the cards

- Felix Kammerer (All Quiet on the Western Front) ... star of the film with a ton of momentum; Top 7 at BAFTA unless you want to argue that he was juried to the longlist and that one of Dickinson, McCormack or Kaluuya finished higher than someone whose film otherwise ran the table

- Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans) ... arguably the best performance in the entire film, but will the Academy rally behind the 20-year-old Canadian and just how strong is the film at this point after drawing a single nom at BAFTA
 
Josh5890

Josh5890

I'm Your Favorite Poster's Favorite Poster
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
23,412
I'm way behind on a few categories so I will have some catching up to do after the nominations are announced tomorrow.

Can't wait.
 
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