538: Democrats Appear to Have Lost the DACA Fight [In December]

[Miletius]

I believe that this deserved it's own thread, as it got lost in the celebration over Jones' victory in Alabama on Tuesday.

Via Perry at 538:

The Democrats thought that December was the month they could use the threat of a government shutdown to force congressional Republicans to pass a law that offers protections from deportation and other benefits for some young undocumented immigrants.

But the passage this month of such a law, along the lines of the Obama administration's Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, now looks very unlikely. Why? Because at least right now, Democrats appear not to have much leverage in terms of forcing the GOP to accept a DACA-style bill, in part because a group of House Republicans who strongly oppose such a provision may have more sway. It looks like Congress will fund the government and avoid a shutdown in the next few weeks — without addressing DACA.

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After a bipartisan spending bill passed in September, providing funding until Dec. 8, Democrats on Capitol Hill started talking about using their votes on government funding bills as leverage. Their thinking was that if they were going to prevent a government shutdown when Republicans were in charge of the House, Senate and presidency (and would therefore presumably be blamed if the government closed up shop), Democrats should get one of their big priorities in exchange. Party activists and some lawmakers had centered on a DACA-style bill as what they really wanted. (It was not clear if this provision would be tucked into the spending bill or just that GOP leaders would agree to take it up as a part of a formal agreement in order to get the spending approved.)

When the two-week funding bill put forward last week didn't include a DACA provision, Democrats in the House tried this new strategy: Instead of backing the measure, which kept federal funding at similar levels as the bill from September did, 175 of the 189 House Democrats voted against it. But 221 of 239 Republicans supported this one, including House Freedom Caucus leaders Jim Jordan of Ohio and Mark Meadows of North Carolina, members who had voted against past spending bills.

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More at the link

Unfortunately we've seen numerous articles like this that point to a a general cooling off of a support for DACA recipients for a variety of reasons -- old news, low priority, never really supported it in the first place. There is some hope that as the impending March deadline manifests that people will be more inclined to become vocal about it again but there is no guarantee. And with a (for now) unified House Republican Caucus over these issues it becomes far more imperative that people who want to see Dreamers protected to make as much noise as possible.

 

[Deleted member 13101]

Let's keep perspective here. For years people didn't pressure Congress enough to pass sweeping immigration reform, so Obama took executive action. Trump, who could have also taken executive action, allowed the program to move into limbo.

Another thing to note is that a significant portion of the middle class is about to have additional tax and healthcare burdens put upon them, while also directly impacting real estate markets and the healthcare sector. And if Trump gets his way, there will be additional tax burdens in some states, in the name of "infrastructure" and "internet access".

But what people haven't seen is the DACA protests that are still going on. There was one in my town the other week. The issue isn't dead.

 

[Miletius]

I don't necessarily think that the issue is dead, but I do think that it's going to come down to the wire -- i.e. March for movement. And while I do agree that there are a lot of priorities that the American people face it is my hope that we don't de-prioritize Dreamers to the point that we miss that deadline.

There are a small group of people who are incredibly engaged in DACA and immigrant politics in general. There are quite a few people, many who it won't effect, who are less engaged. It's up to the people who do care (like myself) to make noise to try to get people worried about Dreamers again.

 

[Kirblar]

If the GOP holds together on the CRs the Dems have no leverage on this till after midterms unfortunately.

 

[AnotherNils]

Isn't the real obstacle the Senate? I thought funding the government needs 60? Or am i wrong?

 

[Beartruck]

They still have the leverage. Shut it down. Make them change their minds.