A little less than a year later, Bitcoin is now 1/3 of the value it was at its peak in December 2017

Clockwork · Nov 16, 2018

Yeah all those people who bought in prior to Oct 2017 sure are losers, right?

https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/price/

Anyone smart person would plan on holding for a year anyway to minimize the tax impacts (being taxed as income versus long term capital gains - at least in the US).

Disclosure - I have never owned any bitcoin

Lump · Nov 16, 2018

But the founder of Bitcoin Exchange said it would be $50,000 by the end of 2018.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/29/bit...in-2018-says-founder-of-bitcoin-exchange.html

Aselith · Nov 16, 2018

Clockwork said:
Yeah all those people who bought in prior to Oct 2017 sure are losers, right?

https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/price/

Anyone smart person would plan on holding for a year anyway to minimize the tax impacts (being taxed as income versus long term capital gains - at least in the US).

Disclosure - I have never owned any bitcoin

in summary, hodl

phonicjoy · Nov 16, 2018

BocoDragon said:
It's also a great way for a business to raise money by selling tokens in an ICO.

How is it a "great way" to do that? You're basically ripping people of by selling them
a pyramid scheme.

Blockchain can have uses (logistics, supplychain validation), but its not the next big thing in tech.

WedgeX · Nov 16, 2018

People were mad as hell when I compared it to tulips.

RobotHaus · Nov 16, 2018

Good, it's such a waste of resources.

VectorPrime · Nov 16, 2018

Hey people, no one gives a fuck about your personal bitcoin success story anecdote.

Fuck this whole stupid thing.

Dekuman · Nov 16, 2018

Imagine a currency as volatile as bitcoin. It would not be on anyone's reserve basket.

The problem with bitcoin and similar currencies is they are open to speculators and operate like a pyramid scheme. You have a few huge winners, a thin band of moderate winners and a whole bunch of losers.

Not opposed to investing in it as a hedge but people who view this as a legit currency as opposed to a way for criminals and terrorists to transfer funds while everyone else is hoping to get rich holding these things are misguided.

cervanky · Nov 16, 2018

Bitcoin's price fluctuates so wildly that it's not very meaningful to pick two arbitrary dates and compare between them. Bitcoin has the same value today as it did late October 2018. It's double the value it had July 2017, over 5x its value from January 2017, about 1/3 the value it had in January this year, and about 5% lower than its value in June this year.

Who knows what it'll be next month, next year? It's not exactly a shock that after going from $1000 to $20,000 in the span of a year it crashed to $5500, that doesn't mean it's "dead", the thing still has a daily volume of over $5 billion.

I hope it does wind down a bit though solely for ecological reasons, and for Proof-of-Stake assets to take off.

BocoDragon · Nov 16, 2018

phonicjoy said:
How is it a "great way" to do that? You're basically ripping people of by selling them
a pyramid scheme.

It's basically just a way to sell shares in a business. An IPO based on crypto tech. Big companies will increasingly be raising money like this in the future.

A pyramid scheme would imply that there's some network effect where you get more and more people to buy down the line and there's no direct value for every buyer...? No reason to assume that if it's been regulated.

Lockness Mobster · Nov 16, 2018

WedgeX said:
People were mad as hell when I compared it to tulips.

My stock broker told me this story,I took his advice and passed on bitcoin,glad I did.

konka · Nov 16, 2018

I mean. Really the hallmark of a reliable currency.

Hassel · Nov 16, 2018

BocoDragon said:
It's basically just a way to sell shares in a business. An IPO based on crypto tech. Big companies will increasingly be raising money like this in the future.

A pyramid scheme would imply that there's some network effect where you get more and more people to buy down the line and there's no direct value for every buyer...? No reason to assume that if it's been regulated.

It's not even close to "shares in a business"

LOL

chezzymann · Nov 16, 2018

I don't pity anyone who didn't sell after it got to 20K. Waiting for an increase after that is basically the same as winning in a casino and then betting all your money again to win more

cervanky · Nov 16, 2018

phonicjoy said:
You're basically ripping people of by selling them
a pyramid scheme.

Dekuman said:
The problem with bitcoin and similar currencies is they are open to speculators and operate like a pyramid scheme. You have a few huge winners, a thin band of moderate winners and a whole bunch of losers.

"Pyramid scheme" means something. I don't see how it applies to Bitcoin. Bitcoin might be shit for a whole host of reasons but this criticism never made sense to me.

A pyramid scheme is something where the person generates revenue for older investors by recruiting newer investors. If Bitcoin is considered a pyramid scheme because you have to sell your Bitcoin to someone else to make a profit, then every single asset or stock is a pyramid scheme.

It's not like gold is over $1000/oz because of its industrial utility. It's because people buy the thing hoping it'll either keep in value or increase over time.

Brandson · Nov 16, 2018

Blockchain tech offers some solutions to interesting tech problems, such as transacting without a trusted intermediary, and introducing scarcity to digital assets, but that doesn't necessarily mean that buying any blockchain-based token is a good investment. In many cases, you are essentially investing in something akin to Microsoft Points or Chuck-E-Cheese tokens, but worse because there often isn't even a reputable company standing behind the token. I don't think this is the end for blockchain, just that there is likely to be only a very small number of tokens that actually end up being used for anything significant enough to amount to a good investment long term.

It also doesn't makes sense that every distributed app has its own token. It would be more efficient for there to be one primary decentralized network that has its own crypto asset, and all dapps use that asset to transact.

Daitokuji · Nov 16, 2018

Bitcoin has 0 intrinsic value, that's where the pyramid scheme comparison comes in. Stocks have a fundamental value. You are a partial owner of the company and are entitled to a share of their profits. Bonds have a fundamental value. You are a creditor and are entitled to be repaid with interest. Real estate has a fundamental value because it is physical land with buildings and infrastructure that real people use. Even precious metals have uses in industry and fashion.

Bitcoin does not. It is crap as a currency, crap as a store of value and people only buy it because they hope to sell it to someone for more money. Well eventually you run out of new buyers and the whole thing collapses like it did.

BernardoOne · Nov 16, 2018

Sectorseven said:
What happened to all those GPUs that were bought up for mining, are they still going at it, or are they for sale on the used market?

No one with a brain has mined bitcoin in a while, altcoins are far more profitable.

Arjen · Nov 16, 2018

I bought around 600 euros in altcoins last year. Don't have high hopes I'll even break even again, but that's ok. I've had fun with the ride.

Spawnsniper · Nov 16, 2018

Hodling and still buying btc,tron,xrp and xlm..

Thug life

FernandoRocker · Nov 16, 2018

Bought $1000 USD of XRP last year... my investment went up to the equivalent of $3500 USD but didn't cash in. Not they are worth $500 USD.

Sad.

x3sphere · Nov 16, 2018

Percentage wise it's not down anywhere near the amount it was during the past crashes. -72% from the peak right now, it went to -86% in 2015. That would equate to a price of $2700 if it matched that decline. I think it'll fall further, but really premature to call crypto dead.

BocoDragon · Nov 16, 2018

Hassel said:
It's not even close to "shares in a business"

LOL

If the ICO is selling security tokens, then yes it is. And it will be regulated as a typical security by government bodies like the SEC. Governments are already taking steps to do this right now.

CreepingFear · Nov 16, 2018

What's the most someone made and was actually able to cash out for liquid?

phonicjoy · Nov 16, 2018

BocoDragon said:
If the ICO is selling security tokens, then yes it is. And it will be regulated as a typical security by government bodies like the SEC. Governments are already taking steps to do this right now.

There is no ownership or say in the company there. Thats a totally different thing from shares. Totally different rights and a cheap way with no insurances for investors.

AppleBlade · Nov 16, 2018

I was saying it back at the peak and still saying it now. Currencies are poor investments and saying stuff like "buy the dip" or "it's overvalued" or "I'm going to wait until it hits X amount" are all market timing and no regular person is going to succeed at investing doing that.

If you want to invest in one thing, Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund is the single best investment you can make. It's diversified across industries and countries and is tied to actual companies who own IP, make actual innovations, sell products, own real estate etc. It has super low fees and is simple to understand. Add a total world bond fund and you have all you need to create an efficient, diversified portfolio.

phonicjoy · Nov 16, 2018

BocoDragon said:
If the ICO is selling security tokens, then yes it is. And it will be regulated as a typical security by government bodies like the SEC. Governments are already taking steps to do this right now.

There is no ownership or say in the company there. Thats a totally different thing from shares. Totally different rights and a cheap way with no insurances for investors.

BocoDragon · Nov 16, 2018

phonicjoy said:
There is no ownership or say in the company there. Thats a totally different thing from shares. Totally different rights and a cheap way with no insurances for investors.

That's true. It's not necessarily the same as a share in that sense.

That said, someone could put in smart contracts to allow token holders to vote and have a say in the company...

Rassilon · Nov 16, 2018

Is this why call centres keep calling me trying to sell bitcoin?

phonicjoy · Nov 16, 2018

BocoDragon said:
That's true. It's not necessarily the same as a share in that sense.

That said, someone could put in smart contracts to allow token holders to vote and have a say in the company...

Then whats the value of using bitcoin. Then you just have a share!

Thats where its gambling and a pyramid scheme. Its only worth more as people are gambling on a profit. Thats only a possibility if more people are betting there's value there...

BocoDragon · Nov 16, 2018

phonicjoy said:
Then whats the value of using bitcoin. Then you just have a share!

Thats where its gambling and a pyramid scheme. Its only worth more as people are gambling on a profit.

(not Bitcoin, technically ethereum) As I said, all of this worry is moot because ICOs are going to be regulated as a security by groups like the SEC. If a security token doesn't actually represent a certain percentage of a company which investors can profit off of and sell, then people at that company will face the law. It's that simple.

tokkun · Nov 16, 2018

BocoDragon said:
That's true. It's not necessarily the same as a share in that sense.

That said, someone could put in smart contracts to allow token holders to vote and have a say in the company...

What is the upside to the investor in this? The only point seems to be to avoid SEC oversight and shareholder protections.

Something that seems to get lost in the hype around the blockchain is that the only thing really novel about it is that it is a distributed system without centralized authorities. That is great if you are an anarchist or if you live in a country on the brink of economic collapse or are a criminal. But for everyone else it kind of sucks. I will gladly accept dependence on my country's financial system if it means I get deposit insurance and oversight of my bank by government regulators.

Swauny Jones · Nov 16, 2018

There was a report awhile back that 95% of Americans that owned bitcoin weren't claiming them on taxes and the IRS had a good clue whom most were. I'm sure a lot of people sold them because they couldn't afford the tax hit am I wrong??

cervanky · Nov 16, 2018

tokkun said:
What is the upside to the investor in this? The only point seems to be to avoid SEC oversight and shareholder protections.

Something that seems to get lost in the hype around the blockchain is that the only thing really novel about it is that it is a distributed system without centralized authorities. That is great if you are an anarchist or if you live in a country on the brink of economic collapse or are a criminal. But for everyone else it kind of sucks. I will gladly accept dependence on my country's financial system if it means I get deposit insurance and oversight of my bank by government regulators.

The way I see it is, stock price isn't fundamentally tied to a company's performance, it's tied to investor confidence, outside of when companies pay dividends (and not all of them do).

Hypothetically, some of these crypto ICOs allow people to own a chunk of a decentralized business that would see the "stock" (token) price rise not just because of investor interest and speculation, but because of the actual supply/demand of that company's service. It's hypothetical because everything's currently in a speculation phase (that it may never come out of, we'll see), most platforms haven't properly launched yet.

So for example, there might be a cloud computing company with a utility token. Besides just being a way for the company to raise money, the token is also required to use the cloud computing service. The service might ask for a flat fee of say $10, and it'd then consume $10-worth of tokens based on whatever the market price is. The advantage to the investor is that the token has an inherent utility to it that a stock doesn't - if the platform succeeds, demand for the limited supply of those tokens would increase, and vice-versa.

This appeals to me more (in theory) than stocks that are totally uncoupled from a company's performance and driven solely by speculation. Of course, most ICOs so far will be colossal failures, and time will tell if that holds true for all of them, but I'm thinking this idea might stick around.

low-G · Nov 16, 2018

Called it.

Actually I called that it should be approaching 0. Lots of stubborn souls left.

BocoDragon · Nov 16, 2018

tokkun said:
What is the upside to the investor in this? The only point seems to be to avoid SEC oversight and shareholder protections.

Something that seems to get lost in the hype around the blockchain is that the only thing really novel about it is that it is a distributed system without centralized authorities. That is great if you are an anarchist or if you live in a country on the brink of economic collapse or are a criminal. But for everyone else it kind of sucks. I will gladly accept dependence on my country's financial system if it means I get deposit insurance and oversight of my bank by government regulators.

Generally the main advantage is for issuers to be more flexible in how they raise. But investors will have different kinds of opportunities to invest, more relevant to their interests than a general purchase of stock. Crowdfunding a game project with a return on investment, for one example.

Also as I've said a few times, I don't think ICOs will be free of SEC oversight at all. Financial regulators are stepping into the space and regulating it all over the world. Abusers will face penalties or jail time. I don't think anyone from this point forward should be pursuing ICOs with the idea that they are going to skirt authority.

Edit: ^ Cervanky just gave a great example of a "hybrid" token that is both utility and security. What if you could buy credit to use a service that also acted as an investment in that service? Imagine if you bought a gift certificate that could be spent at a store, but also appreciated in value with the success of that store?

Deleted member 8561 · Nov 16, 2018

low-G said:
Called it.

Actually I called that it should be approaching 0. Lots of stubborn souls left.

It's pretty much impossible for it to reach zero. Order book wise there is just too many buyers when you start hitting 3K and 2K.

Deleted member 8561 · Nov 16, 2018

CreepingFear said:
What's the most someone made and was actually able to cash out for liquid?

There were a few ERA millionaires last year during the bull run iirc. Pretty sure most of them cashed out. It's not really that difficult to cash out BTC or ETH, there is tons of volume on FIAT exchanges to do so. Cashing out really isn't a problem on one of the main exchanges like Coinbase.

Getting more than six figures off of shit coin exchanges is a different problem, because they don't have the volume to support massive liquidity, and usually have small daily limit withdrawals.

Daitokuji · Nov 16, 2018

Why can't companies just sell shares of stock normally, like they've been doing for hundreds of years? What advantage does stocks on a blockchain give them?

Pwnz · Nov 16, 2018

I warned people on here. The price history is a textbook copy of an economic bubble.

cervanky · Nov 16, 2018

low-G said:
Called it.

Actually I called that it should be approaching 0. Lots of stubborn souls left.

We'll see. This is launching soon by the company that owns the NYSE, which isn't exactly indicative of an asset that's winding down:

https://www.investopedia.com/news/icebacked-bakkt-will-begin-trading-bitcoin-futures-dec-12th/

Bitcoin futures trading on Bakkt, the new platform announced by the Intercontinental Exchange in August, will begin on December 12, according to a recent notice issued by its owner.

Backed by a diverse array of big names, including Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) and Microsoft Inc. (MSFT), Bakkt is expected to be a game changer in the cryptocurrency investment industry.

I'm not saying the price will pump to the stratosphere, or that it'll stop crashing...who knows. But it's not going to zero anytime soon.

x3sphere · Nov 16, 2018

CreepingFear said:
What's the most someone made and was actually able to cash out for liquid?

That ex hedge fund guy, Mike Novogratz, he cashed out around $250 million worth of Ether when it went up to $400. That's the biggest I know of. Don't think too many will share their profits publicly though if they hit it big.

Pwnz · Nov 16, 2018

cervanky said:
Bitcoin's price fluctuates so wildly that it's not very meaningful to pick two arbitrary dates and compare between them. Bitcoin has the same value today as it did late October 2018. It's double the value it had July 2017, over 5x its value from January 2017, about 1/3 the value it had in January this year, and about 5% lower than its value in June this year.

Who knows what it'll be next month, next year? It's not exactly a shock that after going from $1000 to $20,000 in the span of a year it crashed to $5500, that doesn't mean it's "dead", the thing still has a daily volume of over $5 billion.

I hope it does wind down a bit though solely for ecological reasons, and for Proof-of-Stake assets to take off.

Lol

Sorry dude, it's a bubble. Stocks go up 6% per year in real value long term because it represents ownership in a company that makes products and has profit. Bitcoin does not have intrinsic value like that. It's done.

smoothj · Nov 16, 2018

I made a profit and took out my initial investment during the hype. Now I got play money and just holding it in case it pops again.

All in all I did pretty good I'd say.

Deleted member 8561 · Nov 16, 2018

Pwnz said:
Lol

Sorry dude, it's a bubble. Stocks go up 6% per year in real value long term because it represents ownership in a company that makes products and has profit. Bitcoin does not have intrinsic value like that. It's done.

There have been multiple BTC bubbles. Of course there is a chance crypto in itself is a failed market, but saying "it's done" is a good way to eat crow when people start whipping out receipts when the bear market goes back bull (whenever that may be)

Quantum Leap · Nov 16, 2018

I didn't lose any money but I do hate myself for not selling it all at the peak

Vincent Alexander · Nov 16, 2018

Jzeero said:
I didn't lose any money but I do hate myself for not selling it all at the peak

This is me. My $500 investment got up to $8,000. I'm so pissed at myself....

Shoes · Nov 16, 2018

I sold my small holdings during summer of 2017 before everything got really crazy. Was worth it just to not have to stress out about the insane volatility.

Daitokuji · Nov 16, 2018

You can't be mad that you didn't sell at the peak. No one knows when the peak will be. People were predicting bitcoin at $50k or $100k so why would you sell at $20k? And if a lot of people did start selling the price would drop so you basically just had to be really lucky to sell at that time.

Pwnz · Nov 16, 2018

TheLostBigBoss said:
There have been multiple BTC bubbles. Of course there is a chance crypto in itself is a failed market, but saying "it's done" is a good way to eat crow when people start whipping out receipts when the bear market goes back bull (whenever that may be)

At best its gold and just is immune to inflation. It's not going to match stocks let alone bonds.

A little less than a year later, Bitcoin is now 1/3 of the value it was at its peak in December 2017

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