Atlantic Hurricane Season 2019 |OT| The Wish for Fish Storms
- Thread starter perfectchaos007
- Start date
- OT
I would think shallower water is extremely warm, so I'd think the inverse, but don't know that's just my guess.
Great news tonight! Stuck at the moment so can't post full but take a look at the models
Thank you for posting this! It's a wonderful in-depth explanation and I really wish that TWC or other news networks would have this type of coverage instead of blowing their budgets on sensationalized fearful glee.
It probably sustains quite a bit of its strength; the western side of the storm won't be the strongest (NE quadrant is and that would stay offshore) but you'd have a massive coastal flooding/storm surge event with widescale beach erosion for hundreds of miles, possibly.
Yeah Levi always makes very informative videos. It's a breath of fresh air compared to a lot of other places. Here's his Twitter as well. Great to follow during these things:
It's a systematic look and explains how divergent weather patterns across the country shape what is happening at a given local area. I don't think any news/information channel has explained this so concisely. They'll hand wave and say we don't know what is going to happen in the coming days, but they never explain why they don't know. And his message does come off as 'this is an emergency situation' but it's relayed in a way of everyone needs to prepare and not in a satisfactory and giddy excitement of OHHH BOY I CANT WAIT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE COMING DAYS *Info graphic of hurricane plane swooshing over the horizon as if it was a fighter jet being sent to war* and I think that nervous giddiness is fine for locals and the populace but comes off as indifferent and almost malicious in a professional setting where you're meant to inform the population about disaster scenarios.
Maybe a dumb question, but will this affect flight paths to the Carribbean? Heading to the Dominican Republic tomorrow morning wondering if any delays should be expected.
It would be nice if they would, but it would likely just go right over the heads of most viewers or they would just change the channel. Most people just want to know when it's due to hit and that's it.
It wasn't cancelled yet
You'll be good.
Guessing you're coming from conus, so from the NW of DR, and the storm isn't there
But the thing is a lot of the weather channel is wasted on telling people to buy flood insurance even when they literally said we know it's an economic burden that people can't afford or waste time with drawn out fear mongering info graphics or waste time interviewing business owners for free marketing or waste time talking about the modeling with no details to say we don't know where it's going.
Hell I've seen figures on air that have no legends!
IT'S A LOT OF WASTED DEAD AIR TIME.
This is the potential Maximum Winds for today based on sea temps, gives an idea of what area can support what class of hurricane
It's good that it seems to be turning away but at the same time I never want us to get too comfortable. Here's hoping it avoids as much of the land as possible.
Way to early to tell, we don't even have a good handle on the track after 3 days.
Water to the east of Florida is several degree's cooler than the water on the west coast/GULF. This is a good thing. If it was in the GULF it would roid out faster.
Southern East coast is already going through a KingTide. Surge will be even worse.I work on the west coast in Tampa/Clearwater area but 5 coworkers live and work in Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area. They must be hanging off the walls.
From Tonights discussion
Forecast nearing the upper end of of cat 4 rating at 150mph in 12 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0300Z 25.5N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 27.0N 78.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 28.3N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 30.8N 81.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0300Z 25.5N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 27.0N 78.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 28.3N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 30.8N 81.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
That day 3 cone is one of the biggest I've seen in a long time
Keep the real ugly part off shore and we are good.
Don't count your chickens yet though. A lot of time and a lot of variables will come into play before that is a certainty.
I would assume you aren't in Florida... otherwise, that's a weird take.
Not a dumb question at all. You'll be fine, though. Your flight will most likely be routed on the back end of the storm.
Here's a little flight plan I made. Purple Line is your projected route. Purple blob with the circles is Dorian. DR in the bottom of image and Florida to the left.
I'm not really seeing how it turning up north is a good thing when such a path could have it hug the entire eastern Florida coast and ripping it a new asshole.
My completely unscientific instinct as a Floridian is telling me this one is a N. Florida deal, and that's after boarding up 2 family houses and waiting on a damn hour line for gas today in s florida. Plus the giant cone they keep having is finally chopping off actual S. Florida land now.
Damn this storm is a thrill ride I'm not prepared for. I have water and batteries and lights but damn. I'm in Orlando. Following those videos posted tonight while hoping for the best. My area hasn't ever been too flooded but I'm sure it could be this time.
Oh, Orlando. At that angle it will be closer to the city than before, plus now the whole FL east coast is gonna feel something. Hopefully it keeps pushing east and farther away though.
The next 8hrs will be interesting. Dorian has been blasting through on a purely west heading for quiet a few frames now on satellite. Will be interesting to see how the models react being initialized further west than anticiated.
That map is really impressive, also, why the hell does there seem to be such a disconnect in graphics as to the alingment of the center of the storm relative to Florida? Like, if you compare the bend of FL on the E coast it seems to almost align with the center on that map, yet the graphics for the other sites show the center is still a bit below it.
Dorian seems to also be going faster than the models were showing. Tomorrow will be interesting.
This might miss FL completely. Latest models except 1 now have it going straight up to the carolinas. lmao. Accuracy isnt a thing with weather.
I thought computer models were bad with Winter Storms, they may be worse with tropical systems. Latest GFS just now keeps it completely offshore of Florida and takes it up to SC/NC. NHC may have to keep shifting the track east if the trend continues. It's the year 2019 and we have Day 5 Hurricane cone of uncertainty covering 1.000 miles. Unreal.
People in the Carolinas are about to wake up and say WTF. The one good thing is that the hurricane will face much more hostile conditions if it heads towards SC. Moderate to high wind shear could weaken Dorian significantly as it approaches landfall. It can maintain major hurricane status if it hits Florida, the wind shear is light in that area.
maybe we get lucky and it misses the east coast entireky. Not likely but still possible.
People in the Carolinas are about to wake up and say WTF. The one good thing is that the hurricane will face much more hostile conditions if it heads towards SC. Moderate to high wind shear could weaken Dorian significantly as it approaches landfall. It can maintain major hurricane status if it hits Florida, the wind shear is light in that area.
maybe we get lucky and it misses the east coast entireky. Not likely but still possible.
Last edited:
