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Atlantic Hurricane Season 2019 |OT| The Wish for Fish Storms

Awesome Kev

Awesome Kev

Banned
Jan 10, 2018
1,670
Vestal said:
Its a single model that while it shows west drift that we have been seeing today, goes a bit all out.. Need more models to show similar changes to lend it any real weight.
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i don't think anyones doubting you, and i certainly appreciate the weigh in on your part, but as a Floridian im sure you understand how lightly some of our people take these things. i live in volusia and have friends and family still blowing this thing off and preparing for labor day parties. a little bit of info on possible scenarios, however unlikely, may be what some people need otohere.
 
maabus1999

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,170
Kyra said:
I keep checking and it still says 8pm advisory for me.
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220614_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
maabus1999

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,170
Half of the ensembles in the 06 Euro are already busted because Dorian is still going west with southerly wobbles. Those were the most east tracks.
 
Kuga

Kuga

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,298
ch4534532 said:
How long did it take? At this point I almost dread putting up shutters more than the storm itself.
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I did it solo, so around two and a half hours, not counting the break I took. Ten windows, plus a large den window and sliding glass door for the back porch. They were the annoying ones that have screws which need to be drilled in/out of the wall. Wear gloves so you don't cut yourself if they are metal shutters. Sliced my fingers twice before deciding that the reduced dexterity from gloves was worth a hand that didn't look like it got into a street fight with a mean piece of paper.
 
Solidsnakejej

Solidsnakejej

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,823
Fort Lauderdale
BohemeLane said:
If that scenario were to play out, would that pressure of 950-955ish probably indicate more of a Category 3 landfall? Rooting for it to still go out to sea, and Category 3 is still no joking matter, but maybe not as catastrophic as a high 4, low 5?
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If the storm straddles the coast most of the worst winds will not get on shore, Cat 3 winds are still significant and the biggest problem of the storm will be storm surge and rainfall, Flooding is the deadliest part of a hurricane.
 
konka

konka

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,856
Vestal said:
Its a single model that while it shows west drift that we have been seeing today, goes a bit all out.. Need more models to show similar changes to lend it any real weight.
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18Z HMON shows a landfall at a similar location as the HRWF.

hmon_ref_05L_21.png


12Z CMC shows a landfall at the same location

gem_mslp_pcpn_05L_11.png


I think I've been pretty clear with my context if you look through my posts here. This is an outcome within the NHC cone and certainly within the realm of possibility. The globals have done pretty poorly on the track of this storm and I don't want people to hug them because they are showing the favorable outcome.
 
Cpt-GargameL

Cpt-GargameL

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,024
Damn I feel bad for Bahamas.

If us people in South FL get hit it looks like it'll be around midnight Monday possibly?
 
konka

konka

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,856
220614_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


I know the immediate focus is on Florida but the forecast has it still as a Hurricane on Friday with parts of New Jersey in the cone, everyone on the EC should be vigilant
 

Deleted member 1086

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,796
Boise Area, Idaho
When do the evacuations start in SC? They are still racing a sell out race in Darlington and won't be done until probably close to 1 am(so I doubt most people there will leave before mid morning tomorrow), I-95 about to be packed with people evacuating and people leaving Darlington.
 
NealMcCauley

NealMcCauley

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,526
Dishwalla said:
When do the evacuations start in SC? They are still racing a sell out race in Darlington and won't be done until probably close to 1 am(so I doubt most people there will leave before mid morning tomorrow), I-95 about to be packed with people evacuating and people leaving Darlington.
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2pm IIRC.

Ed: noon, just rechecked the tweet.
 
Relix

Relix

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,265
I don't see the 275 heading the NHC is saying. I hate when they do shit like this. Movement is closer to 267 grades.
9c1c725e187b1d98fd9b234aa9eda582466ae1fcfb0e3067a51299498ebb70d5.png
 
NihonTiger

NihonTiger

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,551
Dishwalla said:
When do the evacuations start in SC? They are still racing a sell out race in Darlington and won't be done until probably close to 1 am(so I doubt most people there will leave before mid morning tomorrow), I-95 about to be packed with people evacuating and people leaving Darlington.
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I think you're probably looking closer to 1:30 or 2 a.m. at this point with it being Darlington and all and only having just gotten through Stage 2 now.
 
Astral

Astral

Member
Oct 27, 2017
28,462
If this thing was a little faster we'd probably know where it's fucking going by now. Hurry up.
 
konka

konka

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,856
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_9.png


0Z CMC holds serve with a landfall at Cape Canaveral at forecast hour 54. Important to note that at 987 mb it would be weaker but the run initialized at 988 so that figure is likely too high.
 
konka

konka

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,856
Kyra said:
So are we not looking at the euro and gfs and are instead looking at others?
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You should be looking at all of them. If you want to follow the model outputs you can't just pick and choose certain ones. They all have their value and show different solutions to the same problem. Forecasters and the NHC are professionals of course, but they look at all the available information to evaluate what they think is the most likely outcome.
 
maabus1999

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,170
Relix said:
I don't see the 275 heading the NHC is saying. I hate when they do shit like this. Movement is closer to 267 grades.
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This scientist agrees with you. Not only is it not turning, it is going the wrong way from where many of the 0Z models are saying it should be right now (WNW on the HMON and HWRF at start).

Means a higher probablity of going westerly in the tracks if this keeps up.


 
Kyra

Kyra

The Eggplant Queen
Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,348
New York City
konka said:
You should be looking at all of them. If you want to follow the model outputs you can't just pick and choose certain ones. They all have their value and show different solutions to the same problem. Forecasters and the NHC are professionals of course, but they look at all the available information to evaluate what they think is the most likely outcome.
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Where can I follow some models? Is there a place that updates them all regularly?
 
maabus1999

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,170
Ron Paul said:
Still not WSW movement but yeah ever so slightly moving maybe a tick south for every 10 ticks West
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It was supposed to be going WNW by now, and north of Grand Bahama island. This isn't verifying and is a key point a lot of folks were stating as a "watch out FL coast" if this goes to Freeport or South, which is looking likelier by the hour....
 
maabus1999

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,170
1:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 2
Location: 26.6°N 78.0°W
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 914 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph

Still going west at a constant speed.
 
konka

konka

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,856
maabus1999 said:
It was supposed to be going WNW by now, and north of Grand Bahama island. This isn't verifying and is a key point a lot of folks were stating as a "watch out FL coast" if this goes to Freeport or South, which is looking likelier by the hour....
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It is worth pointing out. The 0Z HWRF has the center of the eye just north of the Grand Bahama at 78 W but IR Satellite is clearly showing the center of the eye to be just south of the island.

hwrf_ref_05L_2.png


goes16_ir_goes16-meso1_20190902050926.jpg
 
maabus1999

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,170
Outer rain bands are hours from the SE florida coast.

And if this doesn't turn within the next four to six hours (it will be off the island by then at this speed), it is going to do one hell of a stop on a dime to not hit the FL coastline.
 
SOLDIER

SOLDIER

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
11,339
There's like, literally no updates at all regarding the Bahamas. I can't find any livestreams or anything talking about the storm as it's currently hitting that island.

Haven't heard from my sister in hours. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned, but I also have to assume the necessary preparations have her safe.

She had tweeted a photo of her "bunker" earlier today.



At least there seem to be shutters on the windows. The hotel is near sea-level, but I can only assume they'd have time to evacuate to a higher floor if it came to that.
 
NihonTiger

NihonTiger

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,551
SOLDIER said:
There's like, literally no updates at all regarding the Bahamas. I can't find any livestreams or anything talking about the storm as it's currently hitting that island.

Haven't heard from my sister in hours. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned, but I also have to assume the necessary preparations have her safe.

She had tweeted a photo of her "bunker" earlier today.



At least there seem to be shutters on the windows. The hotel is near sea-level, but I can only assume they'd have time to evacuate to a higher floor if it came to that.
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I've got the ZNS (Bahamas national news outlet) Facebook stream up:


They're based out of Nassau, so the southern flank of the storm is bearing down on them now. They also appear to have a Freeport bureau, so they may have updates from there.
 
maabus1999

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,170
Minishdriveby said:
There's supposed to be a 1AM nhc update, right?
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post 1692 above on this page. No real change.

NihonTiger said:
I've got the ZNS (Bahamas national news outlet) Facebook stream up:


They're based out of Nassau, so the southern flank of the storm is bearing down on them now. They also appear to have a Freeport bureau, so they may have updates from there.
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Is this live? Their radar imagery is hours old in the back...
 
SOLDIER

SOLDIER

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
11,339
There was a random Twitter person who said that they think she replied to another station less than an hour ago. Can't verify that but I can only hope.

Also I had this thought since yesterday, but seeing all of the (encouraging) online comments asking the same question....I'm filled with anger wondering why in the FUCK they had to send reporters into the Bahamas to begin with.

If they're spending 99% of their time holed up in a bunker with no phone or internet to even report on things, then WHAT IS THE FUCKING POINT.

The family is planning to give her boss many words after this. He better hope I'm not a part of the conversation, because I won't be using words.
 
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