Well technically precedence would dictate 5nm.Based on historic precedence, I'm sure Nintendo will go for 7nm.
Current discussion is basically completely about a sequel system. No discussion has been happening regarding a 2021 Pro system for the latter half of the thread, I believe.So are people either underestimating or overestimating specs while arguing if it's best to have a "pro version" sooner vs having a more powerful "sequel" later?
mass production for 5nm starts this year for Apple and Huawei products5nm mass production will begin early next year though. Nvidia have 7nm products out later this year so I dont see an issue with designing for that node; for example Orin is being designed for it.
not optimized for games, but, in theory, could possibly be used as a preliminary test platform. a proof of concept, if you will, for stuff like DLSS. has more than enough power to overcome differences including the caramel cpu coresNvidias website pegs it at 30w for max performance (1.3Tflop) but you can set it lower, though you'll lose out.
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Its not a optimised chip for gaming or GP computing.
So are people either underestimating or overestimating specs while arguing if it's best to have a "pro version" sooner vs having a more powerful "sequel" later?
Most here seem to expect 2023. And most speculation here is based on that expectation as well.It sounds like 'Pro' is not going to happen and we're full bore towards a Switch 2. Though with current events being what they are, who knows when it will appear. 2022?
those have large metal bodies that act as a heat spreader and large graphite pads. switch 2 may need more than that due to the smaller bodyI mostly want them to streamline the hardware with nicer screens and smaller form.
I would really like the Switch to get rid of the fan. My ipad pro and surface pro are both passively cooled.
I'd prefer a Switch 2. I don't see the value in a Pro when it will still be hamstrung by the OG Switch.
A Switch 2 with full BC would be better.
That's pretty much public knowledge, didn't come from me.
If it had full backwards compatibility and ran current software with better frame rates and resolution, those two exclusives would be more than enough to convince me to jump in.I don't see switch selling like bananas in it's current forms going away for at least 2 years so this makes sense to me too.
I could see Nintendo still doing basically a throw away pro model to milk its hardcore fans one more time before dropping the switch 2 like 1 year later though. Complete with the n3ds strategy of having like 2 exclusive games for it.
I think what they meant was Switch used 20nm when PS4 Slim/One S had moved to 16nm. Idk if there is a major difference but I personally think Nintendo will stay a node behind for costs. So if 5nm+ is 2021, then maybe 5nm in 2022-23 for switch 2 imoWell technically precedence would dictate 5nm.
PS4/XBO came out on 28nm, then a few years later Switch came on 20nm.
In the same way PS5/XSX are on 7nm now, in a few years it should be 5nm.
It sounds like 'Pro' is not going to happen and we're full bore towards a Switch 2. Though with current events being what they are, who knows when it will appear. 2022?
Based on historic precedence, I'm sure Nintendo will go for 7nm.
So are people either underestimating or overestimating specs while arguing if it's best to have a "pro version" sooner vs having a more powerful "sequel" later?
I don't expect a Switch 2 until 2023 earliest, I mean why go into a full fledged sequels this early into the Switch success?
Would a mid-gen upgrade be more sensible to continue momentum?
Well, the scenario you sketch matches up with what Onix555 probably meant: Switch 2 is likely to use a node more advanced than the consoles do that are releasing 3 years earlier, but it's entirely that it won't have as advanced a node as a revision of those consoles released 3 years later and roughly concurrently with the Switch 2. That would point to 5nm instead of XSX/PS5's 7nm+ node, and a 5nm+ or 3nm node for the revision of the XSX/PS5.I think what they meant was Switch used 20nm when PS4 Slim/One S had moved to 16nm. Idk if there is a major difference but I personally think Nintendo will stay a node behind for costs. So if 5nm+ is 2021, then maybe 5nm in 2022-23 for switch 2 imo
Well Apple I believe gets 5nm this year, AMD gets it next year for Zen 4, graphics cards come in 5nm early 2022 and 3nm chips ship out later that year, with Nintendo Switch buying up freed 5nm production a year later. Time line is a year slower than the switch using 20nm actually, so 5nm isn't the optimistic choice, it's actually right about where it makes the most economical sense.Depends on when it releases I'd say. If 5nm is the new standard in 2021 then a 2023 Switch using 5nm makes sense, just like a 2017 Switch used 2015 tech.
I think most of us have given up on the idea of a pro. Basically all the current speculation is about a Switch 2.
When did 20nm mass production start? I find articles going back to 2011 but also as recently as 2014 stating that Samsung started mass 20nm production lolWell Apple I believe gets 5nm this year, AMD gets it next year for Zen 4, graphics cards come in 5nm early 2022 and 3nm chips ship out later that year, with Nintendo Switch buying up freed 5nm production a year later. Time line is a year slower than the switch using 20nm actually, so 5nm isn't the optimistic choice, it's actually right about where it makes the most economical sense.
Well Apple I believe gets 5nm this year, AMD gets it next year for Zen 4, graphics cards come in 5nm early 2022 and 3nm chips ship out later that year, with Nintendo Switch buying up freed 5nm production a year later. Time line is a year slower than the switch using 20nm actually, so 5nm isn't the optimistic choice, it's actually right about where it makes the most economical sense.
I think we might start hearing rumors of a switch successor next year. very early dev kits might start going out to field developer opinions and what not.Whatever the timeline appears to be now I think we'll have a better idea in 2021 when products start launching. It'll be easier to make good educated guesses then, assuming they use a similar timeline as they did for Switch 1.
Assuming they even make a Switch 2 and not something completely different again.
2014 for Apple.When did 20nm mass production start? I find articles going back to 2011 but also as recently as 2014 stating that Samsung started mass 20nm production lol
Nikkei reported that a next gen Switch was already in production early last year.Whatever the timeline appears to be now I think we'll have a better idea in 2021 when products start launching. It'll be easier to make good educated guesses then, assuming they use a similar timeline as they did for Switch 1.
Assuming they even make a Switch 2 and not something completely different again.
Im thinking you might hear very light rumours of it. But 2022 is when it'll really heat up; probably get a codename announcement by summer.I think we might start hearing rumors of a switch successor next year. very early dev kits might start going out to field developer opinions and what not.
Nikkei reported that a next gen Switch was already in production early last year.
Wider design is a better option all around, for Switch or anything else.So, I pass the question on to all of you: which one is the better choice for a practical Switch 2 design? 10% higher frequency or 20% higher SM count?
Digital Foundry made a dlss 2 video and it delivered a perfect 1080 output from 540 internal resolution. I think switch 2 with Dlss is a must. Maybe that way they can get next gen ports.Imagine Switch 2 only having to render say 540p to create an image that looks comparable to 900p undocked.
This year does seem to be a wash as you say. Originally BotW2 was heavily rumored to be this year's holiday game. Covid19 has delayed software development and hardware manufacturing world wide now for months, it's not close to being over yet, and that delay is affecting next gen consoles, not just possibly their launch date, but also the software devs behind next generation games.I think they may as well just ride it out until 2022 with the current Switch at this point.
A Pro was a neat idea, but really looking at it how games would use it given that a Switch 2 probably has to be on market by 2023 at the latest. 2020 is kind of a "washed" year as it were with COVID19 to boot anyway, so the current Switch really only has to make it through 2021.
They could maybe make a Switch XL with a larger screen that cuts off more of that fat bezel and has some moderate overclocking of the CPU/GPU, but I've shifted my thought process on this and I don't think a Pro is needed.
Developers are shifting their focus to the next-generation now, Nintendo is better off just giving them a true next-gen Switch successor to work with sooner than some half step that still won't be good enough to run next-gen games. You need a full generation leap forward + DLSS integration.
The sooner Switch 2 dev kits are in dev hands, the sooner devs can start making games for it and the sooner the system can get in on next-gen projects like a Monster Hunter World 2 or Witcher 4. The sooner devs can integrate a Switch 2 into their next-gen planning, the better. When you come in too close to mid-cycle I think it creates a problem for devs because their development pipeline is totally set up without you included, the more Nintendo can lessen this the better.
This year does seem to be a wash as you say. Originally BotW2 was heavily rumored to be this year's holiday game. Covid19 has delayed software development and hardware manufacturing world wide now for months, it's not close to being over yet, and that delay is affecting next gen consoles, not just possibly their launch date, but also the software devs behind next generation games.
Developers who have been told to work from home will have already seen a 6 month delay to their work if the game is still over half a year off. This will increase cross gen's length, or the operational time of Switch current gen ports.
The economy will also suffer a depression, which is a bad time historically to launch new consoles, in the 7th gen this happened 2 to 3 years into the generation when the housing market crashed, but this time it is happening this holiday. If holiday shopping is affected by covid19 because of a lack of funds from not working all year, or worse case, it is still lingering around and vaccines have not happened or still rolling out, the market will see a huge contraction.
Next gen consoles will still likely sell out at launch, their quantity might be limited but there are plenty of people in the market with the disposal income to buy up 3 to 4 Million XSX and 3 to 4 Million PS5 at launch, however the impact to the holiday would be revealed in total dollars spent and the shock to the economy would slow any recovery, meaning the depression will last through next year too, with 2021's holiday being a big turn around vs 2020's, and leading to a more confident market for 2022.
Developers will have recovered quite a bit in 2022 as well, setting up 2023 as the year where cross gen ends, next gen really starts, and disposable income becomes more stable. If there is a 2023 Switch 2.0 launch, it also means there is devkits for a switch 2 with major 3rd parties in 2021 and widely available in 2022 while cross gen is winding down. 2023 also gives Nintendo a chance to launch with a new Zelda, as plans changed and while a botw2 is close to being finished right now, the team should have already begun some plans on a next gen Zelda, which will solidify next year as development starts.
A 2024 launch isn't out of the question, especially if there is a next generation console delay until 2021, in a normal year, 2 years after next gen has launched is a good time, but considering everything around covid19 and this year being the launch year for next gen consoles, I think it has pushed everyone's plans for the next 18 months back, which should make 2023 the ideal year for a next generation Switch, it also happens to be the year Nintendo would likely use 5nm, and because of the delay to next gen consoles, 2024 is probably the year they would look at releasing something like a PS5 Pro or Slim.
Nintendo isn't releasing all those Mario games, a new paper Mario, and a new Zelda all in from June-December. Zelda is 100% next yearWhile Nintendo has strong IP no doubt I think that roster becomes thin, I don't think they can make it through all of 2023 with a down turn in sales at some point.
I think BOTW2 probably does arrive this holiday, Nintendo has not been shut down.
Nintendo isn't releasing all those Mario games, a new paper Mario, and a new Zelda all in from June-December. Zelda is 100% next year
Paper Mario is not really a system seller, so their big holiday game would be ... a collection of old Mario games?
Don't see that working out too well for them. 3D All-Stars is a nice support type of title but it's not the kind of project you bank a 50+ million selling console's important fourth holiday season on.
Uhh Wii U's 4th holiday season was 2015. Yoshi and Mario Maker I think? After Splatoon in summer, and Amiibo was at peak salesI mean the 4th holiday season is pretty important for any console but Nintendo in particular seems to emphasize it.
SNES - Donkey Kong Country (1994)
N64 - Donkey Kong 64 + Funtastic models (1999)
GameCube - Metroid Prime 2 (2004)
Wii U - Super Smash Bros. U (2014)
Switch - Mario 3D Collection (?)
Ehhhh ... that's not that a great way to maintain sales momentum. There needs to be a marquee holiday game this year, a platform only gets one prime period in its lifecycle you need to make hay with it.
Uhh Wii U's 4th holiday season was 2015. Yoshi and Mario Maker I think? After Splatoon in summer, and Amiibo was at peak sales
You're kidding yourself if you don't think a Mario collection would sell a shit ton.With no BOTW2, the year would be really mediocre post Animal Crossing
Xenoblade Remake
Mario 3D Collection
Paper Mario (?)
Maybe Bayonetta 3 (though if BOTW2 is delayed why wouldn't this?).
That's definitely one way to grind your sales momentum to a halt. The pressure is really on Nintendo always because they can't really go "well this year we'll just let Call of Duty and EA and NBA2K do the work" like Sony and MS can.
The mario all stars 2 and new super Mario 3d world are coming this holiday, with paper Mario possibly ending the year in December. Nintendo has been dealing with stock issues for the last couple months, and they can treat this year like they did with Mario's 25th birthday on the Wii.With no BOTW2, the year would be really mediocre post Animal Crossing
Xenoblade Remake
Mario 3D Collection
Paper Mario (?)
Maybe Bayonetta 3 (though if BOTW2 is delayed why wouldn't this?).
That's definitely one way to grind your sales momentum to a halt. The pressure is really on Nintendo always because they can't really go "well this year we'll just let Call of Duty and EA and NBA2K do the work" like Sony and MS can.
I still think a Pro (Plus) is happening, maybe as soon as next year. Nintendo also said they wanted Switch to have a longer cycle than usual so the actual successor could end up 2024 or later.
5nm seems more likely since mass production starts this year7nm with rtx... Turing cores in the dock for DLSS2.0 when displaying to a TV.... Could be really good.
But would Nvidia be ready? They haven't released a 7nm part yet.
by 2022/2023? yea they would be. an Ampere tegra might even be the only form of Ampere on 5nm as they'll probably move to HopperBut would Nvidia be ready? They haven't released a 7nm part yet.
You're kidding yourself if you don't think a Mario collection would sell a shit ton.
I agree in a normal year, but there were rumors about a Mario Kart game this year, which could be the big holiday game.It would, as in so is a game like NSMBU, but it's not really the type of game that should be the marquee holiday game for a high selling system in probably its peak (or 2nd year peak) year. Not if you want to maintain sales momentum anyway.
A Pro model wouldn't only entail a process change like the TX1+ models did, it'd be an actual architecture revision. And unlike PS4Pro it'd likely have some exclusive software. I don't see much standing in the way of it honestly.A Pro model requires an silicon production process update. They used the latest available one to improve the battery.
Looking back at the PS4/PS4 Pro I thing the Pro version was pointless. Same games with slight improvements for the Pro version that could have achieved using the resources that were used to do 2 "versions".
95% of the Switch games are fine with the available power. The games that could benefit most would be even better suited for a Switch 2.
i have given up on the performance Pro model, but think a premium model with a better screen, maybe metal enclosure could come before the Switch 2. But Corona might have an impact on any cosmetic Pro model.
I agree in a normal year, but there were rumors about a Mario Kart game this year, which could be the big holiday game.
Your argument about botw2 is that just botw people would buy it, but it should be the marquee title? I think the 35th anniversary of Mario is a bigger deal for Nintendo this year, and Zelda is a bigger deal next year with its own botw2 and 35th anniversary collection, which is already almost done as they would just need to update skyward sword and make sure the textures are good for ocarina and Majora's Mask from 3DS, as they created those in HD anyways.
Also metroid could be the same thing for 2021, trilogy is already done or so the rumor goes, metroid other m is the only 3d metroid without a HD upgrade, which could be happening via the metroid team.
Putting out that monolith fantasy adventure rpg next year is also probably happening. Pikmin 4 and the next big Mario game for 2022 would work well too.