It could still just be Nintendo Switch: fancy screen edition. Larger screen, 1080p on the go, mini LED, more storage, some kind of 4k support when docked.
Based on how tech has progressed since the Switch, how powerful could a Switch Pro in early 2021 actually be?
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Yeah this is definitely still on the table. Even just 4k video streaming would satisfy most rumors.
Still, the Bloomberg rumor is the lynchpin which determines whether or not this is a big upgrade in terms of processing capability.
What about that job ad from NVIDIA describing working on DLSS 2.0 on a Tegra chip?
Aether im not going to quote that massive comment but I'll just say I 100% agree.
I'm currently away from home for a few months, and I've been able to take my Switch with me. I can play it on a TV or I can watch TV and have this as a handheld. During this year it has proved essential. I definitely like having a super powerful console for the big blockbuster games, but it's not an exaggeration to say that Switch is the best console I've ever owned. Even if the build quality is total crap.
I'm currently away from home for a few months, and I've been able to take my Switch with me. I can play it on a TV or I can watch TV and have this as a handheld. During this year it has proved essential. I definitely like having a super powerful console for the big blockbuster games, but it's not an exaggeration to say that Switch is the best console I've ever owned. Even if the build quality is total crap.
Nothing about that job listing suggested it was for a product launching next year. It could easily be related to the next Switch iteration/generation happening in 2023-2024 or later.
I don't know what normal adoption timelines for new versions of USB look like, but, as a general rule, hardware standards can take a while to adopt due to the logistics involved.
Except that it's all marketing in regards to what it's called. You can't dictate how Nintendo markets their product, and neither can MS or Sony.
We should be talking about a quadrant.
There are two main axes to consider are the capability delta between the original Switch and the 2021 Switch, and the amount of time that the 2019 Switch and the 2021 Switch stay on the market simultaneously.
Another Taipei article talking about a next generation Switch and this is the first clarification of improved image quality too.
Exciting stuff, Mini-LED tech really shows that Nintendo is looking at technology that isn't adopted in the market yet, DLSS seems much more realistic than Mini-LED IMO and we could get both.
Just using critical thinking, that job posting can't be for a product more than 2 years out IMO.
Exciting stuff, Mini-LED tech really shows that Nintendo is looking at technology that isn't adopted in the market yet, DLSS seems much more realistic than Mini-LED IMO and we could get both.
They wouldn't be hiring a software engineer for hardware that won't exist for 3+ years, the game projects for that device wouldn't even have started yet, and DLSS doesn't need to be introduced to a project until the year of release for performance mainly.
Just using critical thinking, that job posting can't be for a product more than 2 years out IMO.
Software projects takes time, video games are proof of that. Ofcourse Nintendo is working on integrated software and hardware simultaneously, and Nintendos may want to do a lot of customisations to nvidias implementation of DLLS.
Love that name: Nintendo Switch, FS Edition. Not to be confused with the FFS Edition, which will be available for a limited time only.
I'd guess early 2023, but there's not much in it. The hire was for AI devices in general as well as consoles, so the (presumed) Nintendo part wasn't necessarily an urgent task.
Yeah, it got a bit wordy...
Im curently searching for a second hand PS4 Pro since this gaming year on switch is really weak for me. so yeah, even as great as it is, its not quite there where it could (replacing all other platforms for me)
Yeah this is very reasonable and makes a lot of sense. DLSS also already works and could be implemented quickly on Switch hardware with tensor cores, which would be a focus for Nvidia, especially with AMD's traditional GPU performance catching up with them, pushing DLSS is a high priority for Nvidia and would only benefit Nintendo, so we will see what this new model is capable of, my guess though is going to be a high focus on RTX features.
Nvidia is the one that boasted about the amount of man years that were needed to design essentially the Switch API, I'm guessing putting in DLSS into a new API would also take a fair amount of work and testing. Couldn't this engineer also be responsible for training the AI on Nintendo first party games?
Maybe, I imagine Nintendo might do that in house too. It is basically an AA technology.
That 500 man years took less than 3 years, so I don't think that is quite supportive of the idea that the job posting is for a product 3, 4 or even 5 years out. I'd also imagine that DLSS has already been tested on Switch games in some form as well. The work doesn't start when this individual is hired, he just takes over for other Nvidia engineers who are already working on this for their general architecture.
We will have to wait and see, but yeah Mini-LED seems a lot more pie in the sky than DLSS, yet we have a report for both individually (bloomberg's article I'm saying has to be DLSS support since raw performance would need to be too high for 4K switch games).
I'm not so sure. To me it feels like the classic games were shoehorned into NSO as an easy way to add value to an otherwise embarassing online service rather than the VC approach being less profitable for Nintendo. There was also the risk of bad press if the Virtual Console had carried over to Switch but the games people had already bought on Wii, 3DS and Wii U did not. Now that the Switch is a resounding success and 4 years have passed since they dumped the Virtual Console, they can quietly reintroduce it under a different branding and make more money from individual sales.
Yeah I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong about the job listing referring to next year's model, I just think there's no real guarantee about that. It could go either way.
My thinking is if the mini LED rumor is true then they'll be trying to make a more premium "high end" version of the Switch rather than a n3DS style upgrade that will eventually replacement the base model. Something like a bigger screen, different material for the casing, maybe a more premium feeling/looking dock, but not necessarily a different SoC. Or maybe it will be a revision geared towards VR.
If they're splurging on the screen then I'm wary about the idea that they'll be also splurging on the SoC.
Native 4k yeah, but there's other options, like a dock that could scale up from a 1440p image.
Switch already has 1080p 60fps games, which would have no problem running at 1440p 30fps if that was an available option (if anyone wants that).
I can imagine future 1080p 30fps capped Switch games having a mode for a faster system that pushes towards 60fps, which would be a place where optional 1440p makes sense too. The PS4 Pro/XOX titles were full of those kind of trade-offs so I don't think they should be disregarded for Switch.
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Not sure, but DP 1.4 to HDMI 2.1 converters already exist, so I don't see why you would need DP 2.0 (all that extra bandwidth would just go to waste in the HDMI conversion).
Edit: Oops spoke too soon. Just realised DP 1.4 has a bit less bandwidth than HDMI 2.1 and uses signal compression to hit it's maximum resolution/framerate, so I guess that's an imperfect solution.
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If the rumor is true, it is calling next year's model a next gen Switch, also the idea they stick with a 6 and a half year old SoC, just seems very unlikely. If they are pushing for Mini-LED, part of the reasoning is to lower power consumption, rather than shrinking Tegra X1 again, moving to more efficient architectures makes more sense than shrinking Tegra X1 further.
That Bloomberg report can only be correct via rendering at 4K or upscaling via DLSS, it said developers were asked by Nintendo to make their games ready for 4K, those other technologies doesn't require any work from the developers end.
Regarding the cost of mini-LED panel, Ming-Chi Kuo (analyst) suggests that it's going to drop quickly:
"The increased supply capacity and competition among suppliers will reportedly drive Apple's cost for mini-LED display dies from $75–$85 down to around $45." (source)
"As indicated in his earlier report, Kuo sees fierce price competition among Apple's mini-LED suppliers in 2021, predicting that Apple's costs for the mini-LED dies will drop by 50% in 2021 and a further 35% in 2022." (source)
"The increased supply capacity and competition among suppliers will reportedly drive Apple's cost for mini-LED display dies from $75–$85 down to around $45." (source)
"As indicated in his earlier report, Kuo sees fierce price competition among Apple's mini-LED suppliers in 2021, predicting that Apple's costs for the mini-LED dies will drop by 50% in 2021 and a further 35% in 2022." (source)
You're putting a lot of belief in a very particular reading of that. And you think 1440p mode would not require any work at all? Even just doing a bilinear upscale to a higher resolution and slapping on a native HUD would take preparation.
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I've heard someone make a prediction that the next Nintendo Switch model is going to support HDMI 2.1. And another person mentioned that USB 4 (40 Gbps) doesn't have enough bandwidth for HDMI 2.1 (48 Gbps). And I was thinking that if a DisplayPort Alt Mode 2.0 to HDMI 2.1 converter chip exist, it might be possible since USB 4 does support DisplayPort Alt Mode 2.0 and DisplayPort Alt Mode 2.0 has a maximum downstream bandwidth of 80 Gbps (I don't know if a maximum upstream bandwidth is necessary though).
And I'm not sure if DisplayPort Alt Mode has enough bandwidth for HDMI 2.1 since DisplayPort Alt Mode seems to have a max bandwidth of 10 Gbps (USB 3.1 Gen 2 has a max bandwidth of 10 Gbps, which I assume is the interface DisplayPort Alt Mode uses, although I don't know which USB 3.2 spec USB 3.1 Gen 2 aligns with).
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Based on my test of the "AI" upscaler, I think that some work from the developers may still be needed to utilize it properly (but probably a lot easier than working with the DLSS). That said I'm still holding out hope for the DLSS though.
I'm not saying this is a true report, I'm saying that if they asked developers to prepare their games for 4K, they are specifically asking developers to do work, that isn't required for other forms of upscaling.
Your tests are awesome, but most developers haven't heard of this new model, which makes me think it is only being asked of developers making exclusives for the Switch next year, because I think it requires 4K assets, the reasoning is that multiplats already have 4K assets, so they don't require such a large heads up.
The report could also not be true, but going on the assumption that it is true, this is what makes sense to me. Your AI upscaling doesn't require work, but if it did, it would require every switch developer to do work, since it doesn't use added information.
But I'm suggesting an option of rendering at a higher (but sub 2160p) resolution. This still needs work just like PS4 Pro games needed work.
And Nintendo is following market trends dictated by apple choices since 2017. So the choice of going with miniLED would be smart. The only component that is not following Apple (and android) market trends is the SOC that benefit from having a lot more space than mobile devices a thus being not penalised from using older nodes.
Once again, I'm not sure that bandwidth is the best way to speculate on what kind of video output interface would be used. HDMI 2.0 and 2.1 are already overkill in terms of bandwidth for a nintendo switch and the best TV panel on the market (within the LG CX) is not benefiting (and thus doesn't support) from the full bandwidth provided by HDMI 2.1. However, HDMI 2.1 is the only standard that would guarantee features like VRR.
Actually, mini-LED is the cheaper option compared to OLED. It is not widely used yet because it is not better than OLED while being more expensive.
Next year, mini-LED will finally be cheaper and will be considered as an option to replace LCD. It will still be the cheaper option compared to OLED.
this implies that nintendo would use oled if it wasnt for the downsides.
Im 99% shure that oled is just to expensive for nintendo.
And mini-led would be an option, if the switch pro ir rumored to come out Q1 2022.
As is, it is to be expected Q2 2021, before any mass implementation of mini-led, and the first view charges would be quite expensive.
And it if really is releasing after apples Q3 gadget that uses mini-LED... Q2 would already be 4 years into the lifecycle of switch. moving it further back would make a pro version with power increase pointless.
Except if they want to really have a iterative aproach every view years (no gens), or plan to keep this generation for at least 7-8 years.
Im not saying its not possible. i just find it unrealistic.
Chineses, taiwaneses and samsung display are all switching from LCD~QLED to mini-LCD next year. First customers will be Apple's iPad pro (early 2021) and Samsung/TCL TVs.
yeah, just looked it up... all is still up in the air. Nothing concrete.
I've seen those talks for oled back then, i've seen them for many technologies, that never came to fruition.
If it really progressed in such big steps on the production side, YAY, great.
But i also have seen to much hype talk of producers without being able to deliver.
Well see. Im all for better display tech.
The mini-LED tech is being adopted quickly for TVs:
TCL 6-Series 2020 Roku TV review: Mini-LED makes a big difference
Affordable pricing and a bright, punchy image make the 6-Series the TV to beat.
www.cnet.com
Xiaomi launches massive 82-inch 8K TV with mini-LED tech, 5G connectivity
Xiaomi has launched two 82-inch displays as part of its Mi Master range. The headliner panel sports 8K resolution, mini-LED technology, and 5G connectivity.
www.androidauthority.com
Nice. Did not find any of those in my region. Probably for a reason (not enough yield)The mini-LED tech is being adopted quickly for TVs:
TCL 6-Series 2020 Roku TV review: Mini-LED makes a big difference
Affordable pricing and a bright, punchy image make the 6-Series the TV to beat.Apple is leading the way for mobile devices.Xiaomi launches massive 82-inch 8K TV with mini-LED tech, 5G connectivity
Xiaomi has launched two 82-inch displays as part of its Mi Master range. The headliner panel sports 8K resolution, mini-LED technology, and 5G connectivity.
But for early gens remarkable reasonably priced.
Apple can pay für dips on production runs, whileothers have to wait.
Nintendo wont be able to do that. not without pushing the price really high.
The question is, are they okay with risking supply shortage in the short run.
And about apple leading the way: depending what and when.
Samsung was years ahead with their displays.
For mini led apple seems to be on the forefront, true that, if the rumors are true.
If you are in Europe, TCL is already selling the 65X10 and 75X mini-LED displays. Mini-LED is cheaper than OLED that's a fact. It's "just" LCD with mini-LED backlight. Samsung is ending LCD panel production in 2020.
Mini-LED cannot replace LCD because it still is LCD. That's like saying an "LED" TV isn't LCD.
Absolutely. Mini-LED is LCD (with quantum dot box for samsung/tcl displays) with mini-LED backlight. Just like the Q80T/Q90T series by samsung with more individual LEDs and more local dimming zones. The innovation is the number of local dimming zones allowing for better blacks and a brighter overall image compare to "classic" LCD screens.
The image quality would be closer to OLED while being cheaper and not suffering from burn-in.
The whole summary of the job was for this!
It's not specific to a timeline, but the job description couldn't be more clear to mention DLSS 2.0, Tegra solutions and gaming consoles which can only mean "Nintendo" since Switch is the only gaming console with Nvidia tech currently...
"NVIDIA is looking for a Senior Embedded Software Engineer for the Tegra solutions Engineering team to work on 'next-generation graphics & AI technologies for gaming consoles and AI edge devices.' This new engineer will work on 'solutions to use artificial intelligence in graphics technologies like NVIDIA's DLSS 2.0"
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I think this is definitely the bigger picture, that mini-LED technology can provide close enough visual fidelity to OLED, with the benefits of overall prices falling drastically due to the quick potential of more manufacturers of the tech vs OLED panels(which is why Apple wants to get away from the tech).
And also Apple not wanting to finance Samsung displays as they are doing with TSMC. A lot of people are talking about 5 nm being widely avaible for everyone in 2023 but Apple will not only produce A14/X/Z/T and A15 as they have done on 7 nm but also MBP/iMAC SOCs and iMAC's GPUs on 5 nm. One of the most likely things is Nintendo using mass market components... so Apple's components which imply either Samsung's AMOLED displays or future mini-LED displays (or an old 60Hz LCD).
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Found the 65X10 on 2 smaller retailers, but neither Amazon nor the major retailer here seem to have them even listed. The 75x i didnt even find on proce comparing sites.
Regardless. I would be happy if it happens with the switch.
The problem now, from what i've understood, is the suply of the LED makers ot the panel makers.
long time that i read OSRAM, kinda forgot they exist and do LEDs too...which makes total sense.
With all this talk of miniLED and magnesium alloy backs, I'm going to posit the possible future existence of a Switch Premium. It would be a hybrid switch compatible with whatever the 2021's dock is and run at the same performance levels, but it would have premium features such as:
In my hypothetical universe 2021 would see the release of 5 Switch systems:
In my hypothetical world, the Switch Home+ would come packed with a Switch Pro controller, and the Switch VR+ would come packed with regular joycons and a dock similar to the Genki Covert Dock.
All 5 of these Switch units would come with the same SoC and run at the same speeds except for the Switch Lite+ which wouldn't supported docked speeds.
- miniLED screen
- glass screen
- magnesium alloy back plate
- jumbo joycons that are full featured, but otherwise resemble the hori split pad pro.
In my hypothetical universe 2021 would see the release of 5 Switch systems:
- Switch+ ($299)
- Switch Lite+ ($199)
- Switch Premium+ ($399)
- Switch Home+ ($199)
- Switch VR+ ($349 or $299)
In my hypothetical world, the Switch Home+ would come packed with a Switch Pro controller, and the Switch VR+ would come packed with regular joycons and a dock similar to the Genki Covert Dock.
All 5 of these Switch units would come with the same SoC and run at the same speeds except for the Switch Lite+ which wouldn't supported docked speeds.
Marketing departement left the chat.
There is too much devices in your prediction. Switch VR will be as successful as Labo. There is no need for Home if you're not able to supply the Hybrid model in the first place (with better margins). They have enough room to make a new premium base model at $299. A 2021 switch with mini-LED, 8/10/12GB RAM, 130mm2 8 nm SOC, UFS2.0 and magnesium alloy will generate more profits than OG model did in 2017/2018 even without switch online. They should maintain Mariko models as long as possible (especially lite) as a entry point until lite plus release.
In my hypothetical universe:
- Switch+ 2021 ($299)
Switch 2019Discontinued- Switch Lite 2019 ($79-99)
- Switch Lite + 2022? ($199)
Look at how 2DS got a successor 2 and a half years after the new SoC came out for an idea of how they can spread the releases out.
I don't think they'd release a full lineup all at once like that. 2 named models in a single calendar year is probably the most frequent I could see things releasing.
Most likely they'll start with the new hybrid and the other models will fill in over time. The only one I could see potentially launching at the same time would be the TV one. The Lite in particular probably won't be replaced until a year or two after the hybrid model.
Not so much a prediction as just my inner fanboy leaking out all over the place.
As for yours, I think that Nintendo is looking to keep the price nice and high and leave discounts to the used market.
In all seriousness though, I would love to see a switch lite with thicker grips and full sized analog sticks instead of the low profile for more durability. At least with the detachable joycons, the joycons themselves are replaceable.
I think the bigger question for the Switch is if they have the margins for a reduced price switch lite to keep on the market. The price delta might not be enough to keep and a second generation one both on the market. It could be argued that they could make a lower cost Switch Lite that was objectively worse, but I don't know that they would want to do that.
But I don't think there would be a 2nd gen one for over a year, maybe one could come alongside Pokemon's 2022 entry.
They'd only revamp/introduce so many models at once if they were going all-in on next generation software, and I don't see that happening.
I don't see the Lite being anywhere near that cheap but I do think they will keep going with a max of 2-3 models at a time. 3 only if they really do go for a higher priced pro model, which I kind of doubt they will. Most likely they will try to hold the same $199/299 split and just keep refreshing those without ever dropping the prices.
The current Switch Lite probably still has at least one or two price cuts left in it. These things usually get cheaper over time, and I expect it will probably get a price cut around the same time the next model launches.
I'm rather ignorant about these component costs, but the $299 MSRP seems too good to be true. With the latest mini-LED rumor, even the previous (common?) expectation of $349 seems a bit untenable considering the features that we've been speculating:
- Better SoC
- More/faster memory
- Larger mini-LED display
- 4K support (DLSS and/or AI upscaling)
- More durable analog sticks
- Magnesium alloy body
- Removable joy-cons: Since the enthusiasts more than likely will acquire additional controllers, the new model may only have a built-in controller (like the Lite, but with stronger sticks).
- IR sensor: Without the joy-cons it doesn't make sense to retain the sensor.
- Headphone jack: If the new model can support bluetooth audio, Nintendo might omit the jack like many phones today. Or they will sell you an official USB-C adapter.
- Internal memory: The 32GB is not enough for the enthusiasts anyway; might as well remove it. They will get a large SD card regardless.
- HD rumble: Unlike some Era posters, I like this feature a lot. But it's possible that they'd remove it (like the Lite). Again, the enthusiasts probably will have additional controllers anyway.
- [Unlikely] NFC reader/writer: Even the Lite has it, therefore it's doesn't seem likely to be removed.
- [Unlikely] Dock sold separately: This undermines the hybrid nature of Switch.
- [Unlikely] Charger: Like iPhone 12, Nintendo could just allow the users to BYO USB power. But knowing the Switch's past record, it might become a fire hazard.
- [Unlikely] Game card slot: Millions of Era voices suddenly cried out in terror—anti consumer!
Usually when companies add a more efficient chip and display, they reduce the size of the battery to 'compensate'. I think we can mostly agree that this new Switch model will a premium model that will be sold alongside the normal Switch. They could definitely comfortably price this at 399 USD.
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