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Apr 11, 2020
1,235
If I planned to have record sales for the 2020 holiday season and a more powerful model planned a few months later, I would do everything possible to hide the existence of this model which would immediately make the first model obsolete upon its release. Many people have doubled dipped just for an animal crossing model.

Especially if the only thing to do to make the games compatible would be to say "hey devs, you now have 4 powerful cores and you will just have to assume that the API will handle the more powerful GPU by itself".

And let's be honest. Nintendo has no choice but to switch to a new process node for 2021. No matter which one is chosen, a x2 leap in all areas will be largely possible. Not only does TX1 have old uArchs but on top of that it was initially set to 20nm and downclocked.

On another subject. I am curious to know what will be the first chip to have A78C. It seems that Nvidia didn't need this uArch for Orin (12*A78) at first. Also I don't see Nintendo using this uArch in 2023...3 years after its announcement when ARMv9 will be available by then. I can't see Microsoft/Qualcomm making a chip without cortex X1. So outside of nintendo I don't see for whom this version of the A78 could be addressed.
 

Dekuman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,026
nah, there's no point in making two variations of the same chip. that just means that they'll have stock sitting, waiting to be sold if one variation doesn't sell well


yes, because it'd mean more chips per wafer
It also means there is only 1 chip they need to produce and they can allocate the chips to whichever sku is selling best
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
If we're talking about discontinuation of the current Tegra chip, the mid 2019 Switch revision launched with chips made in August 2018.

Interesting, I didn't realize there was such a long gap between chip production and console release. Alright, maybe this new 8nm chip will phase out the current one over the course of 2021-2022.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,503
Feels like we are getting a new chip then regardless. Either TX1++ or totally new. It is weird though because they probably only want to fabricate 1 chip and the OG Switch and Switch Lite getting replaced with a stronger chip but arbitrarily held back seems unlikely. So this points either to refresh ala new 3DS with redone internals or it is just a TX1++ and the old systems will dump it into battery life and the new one will dump into performance.

I could see a new 3DS situation though I dont know if Nintendo has stock to last until June-Sept next year if 12nm production is done in Feb.
 

Dekuman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,026
Feels like we are getting a new chip then regardless. Either TX1++ or totally new. It is weird though because they probably only want to fabricate 1 chip and the OG Switch and Switch Lite getting replaced with a stronger chip but arbitrarily held back seems unlikely. So this points either to refresh ala new 3DS with redone internals or it is just a TX1++ and the old systems will dump it into battery life and the new one will dump into performance.

I could see a new 3DS situation though I dont know if Nintendo has stock to last until June-Sept next year if 12nm production is done in Feb.
My theory is Pro is heavily OCed and there will be binning of the chips. The ones that can't quite hit the clocks will go into OG and lites. And heck they may have up to a year to bin these supbar chips if you consider what Jraphics Horse said earlier where the new chips used in the September launches of the lite and new Switch were manufactured a year earlier

Add in vuilt up stock if the current 12nm chips there could easily be enough inventory to produce OG Switches into 2023
 

MP!

Member
Oct 30, 2017
5,198
Las Vegas
Oct 26, 2017
7,981
Interesting, I didn't realize there was such a long gap between chip production and console release. Alright, maybe this new 8nm chip will phase out the current one over the course of 2021-2022.

Yeah I'm not sure it needs to be that long but it was in that case. If you remember the old FCC submition by Nintendo, that was also testing from August 2018 IIRC.
The only teardown I saw of Switch Lite had a chip from March 2019.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
So for all of the "iterative upgrade" naysayers this would seem to indicate Nintendo wants to use new, more efficient process nodes every 2 or so years. In 2019 it was for battery life and smaller form factor (Lite), for 2021 it is presumably for increased processing power. We can only guess at the moment if it'll happen again in 2023 but if it could be for battery life again.

So it seems like they are already doing iterative upgrades, it's just that the purpose of each upgrade is going to depend entirely on how Nintendo wants to market/sell their consoles long term.
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
My theory is Pro is heavily OCed and there will be binning of the chips. The ones that can't quite hit the clocks will go into OG and lites. And heck they may have up to a year to bin these supbar chips if you consider what Jraphics Horse said earlier where the new chips used in the September launches of the lite and new Switch were manufactured a year earlier

Add in vuilt up stock if the current 12nm chips there could easily be enough inventory to produce OG Switches into 2023
still don't see binned chips making it into systems. OG is just gonna die and get replaced. they're gonna be too hard a sell in the face of a new hybrid and lite. binned tegras already have a place in Shield TVs and Jetson boards anyway
 

Dekuman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,026
still don't see binned chips making it into systems. OG is just gonna die and get replaced. they're gonna be too hard a sell in the face of a new hybrid and lite. binned tegras already have a place in Shield TVs and Jetson boards anyway
Eventually OG will go away but they would have enough inventory to keep making them

I don't see how 8nm chips running at standard clocks can't make it in ? Is there a reason why?
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,503
So for all of the "iterative upgrade" naysayers this would seem to indicate Nintendo wants to use new, more efficient process nodes every 2 or so years. In 2019 it was for battery life and smaller form factor (Lite), for 2021 it is presumably for increased processing power. We can only guess at the moment if it'll happen again in 2023 but if it could be for battery life again.

So it seems like they are already doing iterative upgrades, it's just that the purpose of each upgrade is going to depend entirely on how Nintendo wants to market/sell their consoles long term.

Process node shrinks have been a thing forever. Nintendo releasing a more powerful version of their line of hardware has been a thing with the DSi and the n3DS.

We already know we are getting an improved Switch. We just dont know how it is meant to function in the product line. With the Lite and the OG we still don't actually know what is going to happen. Basically the only new info we have is it will be at minimum TX1++. Beyond that I dont get what has changed.
 

Hermii

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,685
So for all of the "iterative upgrade" naysayers this would seem to indicate Nintendo wants to use new, more efficient process nodes every 2 or so years. In 2019 it was for battery life and smaller form factor (Lite), for 2021 it is presumably for increased processing power. We can only guess at the moment if it'll happen again in 2023 but if it could be for battery life again.

So it seems like they are already doing iterative upgrades, it's just that the purpose of each upgrade is going to depend entirely on how Nintendo wants to market/sell their consoles long term.
Its normal for every console to get one or more die shrunk. Mariko is comparable to a slim version of ms or Sony console.

To me, what iterative upgrades mean is an end to generations. If next years chip is a faster tx1, to me its not an iterative upgrade. On the other hand if its using an up to date cpu/ gpu architecture its in essence a next generation device. That would be a true iterative upgrade, and mark the end of traditional generations for Nintendo.
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
Eventually OG will go away but they would have enough inventory to keep making them

I don't see how 8nm chips running at standard clocks can't make it in ? Is there a reason why?
part of the issue is that there will be too few chips. yields for a chip this size is probably extremely good. there may not even be enough to put into an older line. and if the point was to replace the OG systems (and the allegation that production will end in january), then they'll just ride out their stockpile rather than add to it. they were able to keep two lines with the 3DS probably because chips were so cheap, and they had massive stockpiles of the older CPU. they might want to avoid that again so they don't have unnecessary price cuts
 
Oct 26, 2017
7,981
I don't think they're particularly interested in defining generations by what CPU'/GPU a system has. The Wii being, internally, an iterative update to the Gamecube is probably the most obvious example. Recent statements don't show a shift from that philosophy as far as I can see.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Process node shrinks have been a thing forever. Nintendo releasing a more powerful version of their line of hardware has been a thing with the DSi and the n3DS.

We already know we are getting an improved Switch. We just dont know how it is meant to function in the product line. With the Lite and the OG we still don't actually know what is going to happen. Basically the only new info we have is it will be at minimum TX1++. Beyond that I dont get what has changed.

The other thing that has changed is (again, if this info is true) the fact that they will end production of the 12nm units. Before this the consensus seemed to be a new separate line for this improved Switch to coexist along with the original and Lite from 2019 until a successor comes in like 2023-2024. But now it seems the original Switch is getting its second die shrink in 4 years.

Its normal for every console to get one or more die shrunk. Mariko is comparable to a slim version of ms or Sony console.

To me, what iterative upgrades mean is an end to generations. If next years chip is a faster tx1, to me its not an iterative upgrade. On the other hand if its using an up to date cpu/ gpu architecture its in essence a next generation device. That would be a true iterative upgrade, and mark the end of traditional generations for Nintendo.

Right, again what I meant was the purpose (i.e. marketing) of the die shrink is what's going to determine how this plays with the idea of generations. But from an R&D perspective they're currently (and yes, previously) doing iterative upgrades.
 
Apr 11, 2020
1,235
Got it thanks
Are there advantages to either case?
A la Zen chiplets, going chiplets allow you to more easily bin the chip in different configurations. You are dramatically increasing the yield be doing so (by making smaller chips instead of large and wide chips that are more difficult to manufacture).

TX1 for Nintendo switch was heavily downclocked in order to increase the yield. Thus, some hacked Erista switchs are unstable with an overclock. Some have really poor battery life at those clocks. That's why a OC TX1 is probably not possible. They will make more money with a new chip even if it's not a powerful one.

If one year is the typical delay between first manufactured chips and launch, the rumor concerning the 8 nm tegra chip may concern the next gen switch. That being said, Ampere on 7 nm was launched this year too. I expect the next gen switch to use the Compute ampere uArch over the desktop one. I'm not sure that it would benefit from the RT capabilities of the desktop design and would rather use these transistors for more rasterization.
 

Hermii

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,685
A la Zen chiplets, going chiplets allow you to more easily bin the chip in different configurations. You are dramatically increasing the yield be doing so (by making smaller chips instead of large and wide chips that are more difficult to manufacture).

TX1 for Nintendo switch was heavily downclocked in order to increase the yield. Thus, some hacked Erista switchs are unstable with an overclock. Some have really poor battery life at those clocks. That's why a OC TX1 is probably not possible. They will make more money with a new chip even if it's not a powerful one.

If one year is the typical delay between first manufactured chips and launch, the rumor concerning the 8 nm tegra chip may concern the next gen switch. That being said, Ampere on 7 nm was launched this year too. I expect the next gen switch to use the Compute ampere uArch over the desktop one. I'm not sure that it would benefit from the RT capabilities of the desktop design and would rather use these transistors for more rasterization.
Actually the OG Switch was clocked near as high as it could have been. Battery life and heat was borderline acceptable.

A dedicated gaming device will always use slower clock speeds than a comparable non dedicated gaming device, because it is clocked to sustain that performance at all times and throttling is unacceptable.

Edit:
* unless they use some ps5 smart shift like solution.
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
If one year is the typical delay between first manufactured chips and launch, the rumor concerning the 8 nm tegra chip may concern the next gen switch. That being said, Ampere on 7 nm was launched this year too. I expect the next gen switch to use the Compute ampere uArch over the desktop one. I'm not sure that it would benefit from the RT capabilities of the desktop design and would rather use these transistors for more rasterization.
don't know if Nvidia is willing to do that. with Turing, they designed the TU11x branch to scale way down. with Ampere, they seemed to have ditched that with the GA107 line taking its spot. at worse, they might just leave the RT cores there but they go unused. I'm sure someone will find use for them as they're not only used for graphics. audio, physics, a number of other things can be used. maybe UE5's lumen can be accelerated using it. but Nvidia will definitely want those tensor cores for Jetson devices
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,418
The timing for this doesn't make sense, we know they were already expecting to make 30M units this FY and recently heard they may be trying to produce even more. We also just saw that Switch was down 5% yoy for November in NPD, mostly because of production line not catching up with demand still.

That means production lines are full tilt trying to produce the current models and yields for 8nm is reportedly bad, it's not time to launch a new product for January, that will delay production lines while they wait for millions of chips, which is also currently RTX's production problem as well... Sorry this one doesn't line up with what is known, or the rumors like Bloomberg who said FY Q2 for release.

They might replace both SKUs with a new sku, but nothing says it will be Tegra X1 currently.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
The timing for this doesn't make sense, we know they were already expecting to make 30M units this FY and recently heard they may be trying to produce even more. We also just saw that Switch was down 5% yoy for November in NPD, mostly because of production line not catching up with demand still.

That means production lines are full tilt trying to produce the current models and yields for 8nm is reportedly bad, it's not time to launch a new product for January, that will delay production lines while they wait for millions of chips, which is also currently RTX's production problem as well... Sorry this one doesn't line up with what is known, or the rumors like Bloomberg who said FY Q2 for release.

They might replace both SKUs with a new sku, but nothing says it will be Tegra X1 currently.
Who said they are trying to launch a new product in January ? Like someone pointed out in the thread, Mariko started to being made a year before the Lite/v2 launch.
 

K Samedi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,990
The timing for this doesn't make sense, we know they were already expecting to make 30M units this FY and recently heard they may be trying to produce even more. We also just saw that Switch was down 5% yoy for November in NPD, mostly because of production line not catching up with demand still.

That means production lines are full tilt trying to produce the current models and yields for 8nm is reportedly bad, it's not time to launch a new product for January, that will delay production lines while they wait for millions of chips, which is also currently RTX's production problem as well... Sorry this one doesn't line up with what is known, or the rumors like Bloomberg who said FY Q2 for release.

They might replace both SKUs with a new sku, but nothing says it will be Tegra X1 currently.
Yeah it makes no sense because covid will be a thing next year too and the software lineup is rather strong too. I don't rhink they will take the risk of not being able to produce anything unless they have a gazzilion of produced chips lying around or they don't want to sell more than a few million units until the upgrade hits.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
The timing for this doesn't make sense, we know they were already expecting to make 30M units this FY and recently heard they may be trying to produce even more. We also just saw that Switch was down 5% yoy for November in NPD, mostly because of production line not catching up with demand still.

That means production lines are full tilt trying to produce the current models and yields for 8nm is reportedly bad, it's not time to launch a new product for January, that will delay production lines while they wait for millions of chips, which is also currently RTX's production problem as well... Sorry this one doesn't line up with what is known, or the rumors like Bloomberg who said FY Q2 for release.

They might replace both SKUs with a new sku, but nothing says it will be Tegra X1 currently.

They may have millions of TX1+'s sitting in inventory, we really don't know what the production bottleneck for the Switch is/was. If Jraphics Horse was correct and TX1+'s that were in Switches launched in September 2019 were fabricated in August 2018 then there's quite a delay between chip fabrication and console launch.

So they may have enough 12nm TX1's to supply Switches and Lites for much/all of 2021 and maybe even some of 2022 even if production of those chips end in January.
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,418
Who said they are trying to launch a new product in January ? Like someone pointed out in the thread, Mariko started to being made a year before the Lite/v2 launch.
The information was that Mariko would stop production in January, That is 6 months before FY Q2. It could be a simple game of telephone, and wasn't "January" but "beginning of next year" where the source could have meant FY (April). That lines up with expectations and reports from both Taipei and Bloomberg.

One thing that is interesting, is this sort of lines up with Nintendo going for full adoption of the new models, if it's just TX1 (it does go against stuff I've heard if that were the case) it would mean an upgrade to both the hybrid and the lite models, with a performance short of 2x. If it's a new tech SoC like some early reports from Nikkei and Digitimes (as well as recent things I've heard), that would benefit an iteration strategy more so than keeping the old models around.

You'd see 50M or more in just 2 years, either way, this points to exclusives for the new models to be more likely, because they are no longer selling models that aren't compatible with new software. Not a confirmation, just slightly more likely.
 

NineTailSage

Member
Jan 26, 2020
1,449
Hidden Leaf
The timing for this doesn't make sense, we know they were already expecting to make 30M units this FY and recently heard they may be trying to produce even more. We also just saw that Switch was down 5% yoy for November in NPD, mostly because of production line not catching up with demand still.

That means production lines are full tilt trying to produce the current models and yields for 8nm is reportedly bad, it's not time to launch a new product for January, that will delay production lines while they wait for millions of chips, which is also currently RTX's production problem as well... Sorry this one doesn't line up with what is known, or the rumors like Bloomberg who said FY Q2 for release.

They might replace both SKUs with a new sku, but nothing says it will be Tegra X1 currently.

Makes me wonder (on top of Covid) if mostly this year Nintendo have been clearing out inventory and running lean in preparation of the move to 8nm Switch. I could see Nintendo having enough Mariko SoC's on hand to get them through this transition period or we may see serious hardware droughts until the new Switch version launches if demand stays extremely high!


Who said they are trying to launch a new product in January ? Like someone pointed out in the thread, Mariko started to being made a year before the Lite/v2 launch.

I think he's making that point because if Mariko does end production on 12nm in January. How many chips could they realistically have on hand to keep pace with demand up until release of this newer Switch version?
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
they'll weather a summer drought just fine I think. especially if they announce a Pro prior to it. summer will be discount city as people will just wait for the fall release
 
Apr 11, 2020
1,235
That means production lines are full tilt trying to produce the current models and yields for 8nm is reportedly bad, it's not time to launch a new product for January, that will delay production lines while they wait for millions of chips, which is also currently RTX's production problem as well... Sorry this one doesn't line up with what is known, or the rumors like Bloomberg who said FY Q2 for release.
As well as yields for 7 nm that I expect to be worse than 8 nm. Worse or way more expensive. If Mariko was produced at the same time as Turing chipsets, I expect the new SOC to have the same timing rather it is with TSMC's 7nm (with GA100) or 8 nm with the rest of the Ampere line.

The launch may have been planned for March/April in the first place before getting delayed to Q2.
 

RennanNT

Member
Dec 2, 2020
593
The information was that Mariko would stop production in January, That is 6 months before FY Q2. It could be a simple game of telephone, and wasn't "January" but "beginning of next year" where the source could have meant FY (April).
I'm only a layman here, so ignore if it's far from reality, but...

Maybe they can produce far more Mariko than whatever bottleneck they have and they are producing a huge surplus of them. This way, they have time for all the production lines to adapt to the new chip, without going through a scarce period (that is, build enough stock of the new chip while selling Switch with the Mariko surplus and avoid low stock when the new hardware replaces it).
 

bmfrosty

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,894
SF Bay Area
1) Die Shrunk TX1. Silent revision. At best more battery life, but possibly a smaller battery for a lower BOM.
2) Die Shrunk TX1. Higher clocks. Maybe some other tweaks. What people want to call the pro.
3) New SoC. Knock your socks off. What people want to call the switch 2.

I think at this point we're more likely to see 1 or 3. I would be very disappointed with #1, but I think that TX1 is long in the tooth, and the upgrade that we see will end up being a big one. If Nintendo isn't ready yet, we could definitely see another silent revision as a stopgap measure to keep things running while they're still getting ready for #3.

I find option #2 highly unlikely and highly unappealing.
 

NineTailSage

Member
Jan 26, 2020
1,449
Hidden Leaf
Yeah it makes no sense because covid will be a thing next year too and the software lineup is rather strong too. I don't rhink they will take the risk of not being able to produce anything unless they have a gazzilion of produced chips lying around or they don't want to sell more than a few million units until the upgrade hits.

Covid maybe the actual motivator for this move, to get a jump on manufacturing early enough to produce some decent stock. This pandemic has truly changed how one has to think logistically in planning out hardware launch and releases and we've seen in the last few months the crazy levels things can get to...

They may have millions of TX1+'s sitting in inventory, we really don't know what the production bottleneck for the Switch is/was. If Jraphics Horse was correct and TX1+'s that were in Switches launched in September 2019 were fabricated in August 2018 then there's quite a delay between chip fabrication and console launch.

So they may have enough 12nm TX1's to supply Switches and Lites for much/all of 2021 and maybe even some of 2022 even if production of those chips end in January.

The fabrication date could have more to do with TSMC cutting off 20nm production lines by a specific time, than the release schedule for when Nintendo wanted to introduce the Lite and new Mariko hybrid.
 

Thugstas

Banned
Jul 1, 2019
415
That's what I was wondering too. Looks like they have 5 posts on this board, all of them regarding Nvidia/Switch.
I have no track record. Just talking to some people.
switch revision ( pro or 2 ) won't release until 2nd half of 2021.
DLSS will be mandatory
4K capable ( not upscale ?
No tegra X1+ on this.
These are my predictions 😉
 
Last edited:

NineTailSage

Member
Jan 26, 2020
1,449
Hidden Leaf
The timing for this doesn't make sense, we know they were already expecting to make 30M units this FY and recently heard they may be trying to produce even more. We also just saw that Switch was down 5% yoy for November in NPD, mostly because of production line not catching up with demand still.

That means production lines are full tilt trying to produce the current models and yields for 8nm is reportedly bad, it's not time to launch a new product for January, that will delay production lines while they wait for millions of chips, which is also currently RTX's production problem as well... Sorry this one doesn't line up with what is known, or the rumors like Bloomberg who said FY Q2 for release.

They might replace both SKUs with a new sku, but nothing says it will be Tegra X1 currently.

We have to remember that Switch stock maybe hindered by more of it's mobile components that it shares with smart phones and tablets, such as Lpddr4x RAM. Nintendo may have enough Mariko SoC's on hand to last 4-6 months of production and need that buffer time to manufacture enough chips for launch. There was also that reporting of Nintendo seeking to utilize Sharp for additional manufacturing of Switch consoles.

The Ampere RTX cards issues on 8nm is that the GPUs are large, power hungry and clocked pretty high, all things that should make a new Switch SoC have much better yields on the process.
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
1) Die Shrunk TX1. Silent revision. At best more battery life, but possibly a smaller battery for a lower BOM.
2) Die Shrunk TX1. Higher clocks. Maybe some other tweaks. What people want to call the pro.
3) New SoC. Knock your socks off. What people want to call the switch 2.

I think at this point we're more likely to see 1 or 3. I would be very disappointed with #1, but I think that TX1 is long in the tooth, and the upgrade that we see will end up being a big one. If Nintendo isn't ready yet, we could definitely see another silent revision as a stopgap measure to keep things running while they're still getting ready for #3.

I find option #2 highly unlikely and highly unappealing.
There's also the option for a new SoC that's modestly more powerful than the TX1.
 

Method

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,444
I have no track record. Just talking to some people.
switch revision ( pro or 2 ) won't release until 2nd half of 2021.
DLSS will be mandatory
4K capable ( not upscale )
No tegra X1+ on this.
got some great software infos too for 2k21
That'd be amazing... especially about DLSS. I'll keep my hopes up but not believing it until I see it.
 
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