amara

Member
Nov 23, 2021
4,130
Article by Takashi Mochizuki
Sumco Corp., a key supplier of silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry, said it has already sold out its production capacity through 2026, a sign shortages in the industry may not abate for years.

The Japanese company, one of a handful to provide the specialized silicon slabs that chipmakers use to create their designs, has orders to cover all output of its 300mm wafers for the next five years, it said after reporting earnings on Wednesday. It is not taking such long-term orders for 150mm and 200mm wafers, but demand is likely to keep surpassing supply for years to come, the company said. The price of wafers rose by 10% in 2021 over the previous year and Sumco expects to see increases continue until at least 2024.

Sounds like we'll see shortages for pretty much the whole console generation. Maybe Sony will embrace PC faster than originally thought or a Nintendo Switch successor will be pushed even further back.
 
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Strings

Member
Oct 27, 2017
31,733
images
 

Maple

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,884
I'm pretty sure Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo are going to be fine. They're not scrambling for space on the fabs. If anything they're the ones hogging most of the space along with Apple.
 

CorpseLight

Member
Nov 3, 2018
7,666
Microsoft's Xbox Series S will probably go down as one of the best and luckiest design decisions for this generation.
 

cyrribrae

Chicken Chaser
Member
Jan 21, 2019
12,723
I'm pretty sure Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo are going to be fine. They're not scrambling for space on the fabs. If anything they're the ones hogging most of the space along with Apple.
Are they not..?

You get more units of a next gen console with the same amount of silicon as with any other SKU. That gives you flexibility and potential to expand more aggressively than you might otherwise be capable of - especially when competitors are scaling back.

Also potentially bodes well for things like Series X xCloud, where the same hardware can be really used a lot to meet more people's demand. We'll see.
 

nsilvias

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,309
I imagine alot of companies are just buying up a warchest of chips at this point so they dont get caught with their pants down anymore
 

bounchfx

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,720
Muricas
does this mean I should be investing in wafers?

but really, are there no other companies that make these? or companies that will start making these? genuinely dont know anything about this stuff but its really interesting hearing about how everything is bottlenecked because of 1-2 companies. brain says if demand so high why arent there more companies filling the gap? maybe a new factory would take 3-5 years alone to get going? anyone have any clue
 

Deleted member 16908

Oct 27, 2017
9,377
does this mean I should be investing in wafers?

but really, are there no other companies that make these? or companies that will start making these? genuinely dont know anything about this stuff but its really interesting hearing about how everything is bottlenecked because of 1-2 companies. brain says if demand so high why arent there more companies filling the gap? maybe a new factory would take 3-5 years alone to get going? anyone have any clue

That's exactly right. It takes serious time and money to build new factories for this sort of stuff.
 

ASleepingMonkey

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
4,499
Iowa
surely someone, somehow will come up with a solution.

I'm sure it'll make things difficult and not as readily available, but no way they just go "guess we're fucked" and twiddle their thumbs until 2026
 

Poyunch

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,402
Yeah how's this going to affect an Xbox spec refresh?

I was planning on buying a Series X but I've been holding out because I'm worried a refres could be coming.
 

IrishNinja

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,866
Vice City
Less wafers and chips needed so they can push out more systems at a lower price point

The chipset is smaller, so the same amount of water makes ~2x as many systems.

Because they can make almost twice as many SoCs for the S than the X on the same amount of silicon

oh wow, had no idea - yeah that's gotta be paying off in spades right now, explains why you can sometimes find series S on shelves too
 

EvieFK8

Member
Jun 21, 2019
83
Before clicking the thread, I really thought it was about chips and flavored wafers...
 

cyrribrae

Chicken Chaser
Member
Jan 21, 2019
12,723
Yeah how's this going to affect an Xbox spec refresh?

I was planning on buying a Series X but I've been holding out because I'm worried a refres could be coming.
Every day that goes by makes it less and less likely. And it was already unlikely to begin with. They already said they predicted that prices would come down much slower this gen, and that's one of the reasons they launched Series S right from the jump. So don't expect a quick Slim version. And Mid-gen Pro refreshes (with a power bump) just don't really make sense when PS5 and Series X are still far beyond what even the vast majority of PC gamers are using. They're not yet falling behind, unlike PS4 and X1, which were conspicuously behind from day 1.
 

Strings

Member
Oct 27, 2017
31,733
does this mean I should be investing in wafers?

but really, are there no other companies that make these? or companies that will start making these? genuinely dont know anything about this stuff but its really interesting hearing about how everything is bottlenecked because of 1-2 companies. brain says if demand so high why arent there more companies filling the gap? maybe a new factory would take 3-5 years alone to get going? anyone have any clue
Just like you said, they literally take 3-5 years and billions to establish:
First, no part of the semiconductor manufacturing process is fast, and many steps require cleanroom facilities capable of maintaining far lower particle counts than even a surgical theater. The factories that build microprocessors are typically referred to as semiconductor foundries. They cost between $10-$20 billion and can take 3-5 years to build.
www.extremetech.com

Why We Can't Build Our Way Out of the Semiconductor Shortage - ExtremeTech

Eight months on, the semiconductor shortage seems likely to stretch into 2022. Increasing chip production is a slow and difficult business.
 

Kromis

Member
Oct 29, 2017
6,550
SoCal
does this mean I should be investing in wafers?

but really, are there no other companies that make these? or companies that will start making these? genuinely dont know anything about this stuff but its really interesting hearing about how everything is bottlenecked because of 1-2 companies. brain says if demand so high why arent there more companies filling the gap? maybe a new factory would take 3-5 years alone to get going? anyone have any clue

LONG $INTC (even though they won't get their new fabs up and running until several years down the line)
 

xeroyear

Member
Nov 8, 2018
199
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Brainfreeze

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,708
New Jersey
does this mean I should be investing in wafers?

but really, are there no other companies that make these? or companies that will start making these? genuinely dont know anything about this stuff but its really interesting hearing about how everything is bottlenecked because of 1-2 companies. brain says if demand so high why arent there more companies filling the gap? maybe a new factory would take 3-5 years alone to get going? anyone have any clue

I interviewed with a company a few months ago that designs and manufactures the machines that are used to manufacture semiconductors and they were desperately trying to expand as quickly as possible but the combination of deep electrical and mechanical skill needed to do some of the jobs can be difficult to find. They were having trouble finding the space for their experienced employees to help train new ones too, so they couldn't even really compromise.

All of the bottlenecks are definitely trying their hardest to fix the issue but it's just a complex and time consuming problem to solve.
 

neoak

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,457
Yeah how's this going to affect an Xbox spec refresh?

I was planning on buying a Series X but I've been holding out because I'm worried a refres could be coming.
That's the problem with waiting for the next big thing: there is always something better coming.

Refresh at this rate? Unlikely for at least 3 to 4 years. Also, they already use TSMC 7nm. There isn't exactly a node that makes a big difference yet.
 

Madao

Avalanche's One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,778
Panama
stuff like this explains why Nintendo is doing more long term games on Switch. sucessor won't come anytime soon at this rate.
 
Oct 27, 2017
5,008
Series S/X, PS5 and modern gaming GPUs. The switch uses an older chipset that is more readily available I think? They seem to be unaffected by the supply chain - at least when compared to microsoft and sony
I think the Switch would be affected as well. The xbox/PS consoles are on a different production line (7nm vs 16nm) but I believe they all use the same wafers as the raw material.

Somebody correct me if wrong.

Edit: No idea how much this would affect things. It could be that they're ramping up production rate and so while there is still a "gap" between supply and demand, maybe it's not going to be as big of a gap as it was for the last year.
 

AmFreak

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,546
These chips are in the Series X, PS5 and Switch?
Good question. I'm going to wager "No" on the impenetrable logic Takashi Mochizuki does not mention Sony in his report (or Microsoft/Nintendo). If Sumco Corp was a vital chip supplier for console, rest assured the headline would read: "PlayStation chip maker sold out until 2026. Dark clouds gather over Sony HQ".

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/key-supplier-wafers-chips-says-124236888.html
Sumco doesn't make chips, they make the wafers that get turned into chips. Chip makers order these wafers to make chips, and they are now booked till 2026 so this is bad for everyone.
 

Cipherr

Member
Oct 26, 2017
13,519
Sumco doesn't make chips, they make the wafers that get turned into chips. Chip makers order these wafers to make chips, and they are now booked till 2026 so this is bad for everyone.

Yeah this is what I was thinking. Like, this effects everyone I think. Sure to a lesser degree perhaps MS and maaaybe Nintendo? But all of them will be affected.

Long gen indeed.