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BREXIT |OT| ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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theaface

theaface

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Oct 25, 2017
3,150
Garfield said:
you could not make this up, looks like remain MPs are worried common market 2.0 is going to pass and now want the votes postponed

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Common market is the best outcome here. Specifically because May has already spoken out against it - she's unlikely to implement it outright so improves the likelihood of a second referendum to break the deadlock. Revoking A50 will never happen any other way than if the public vote for it. Remainer MPs would do well to accept that.
 
CampFreddie

CampFreddie

A King's Landing
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Oct 25, 2017
2,968
I suspect that Common Market 2.0 gets the plurality in any indicative vote because we are probably looking at a general election soon. It offers a near-perfect fence-straddling solution to MPs looking for re-election in a constituency with divided opinions on Brexit (i.e. almost all constituencies).
MPs can claim to have voted for Brexit when talking to Leave voters and claim to have voted against a damaging no-deal/May's deal hard brexit when talking to remain voters.
It doesn't matter that the Common Market 2.0 promises are:
- mostly built on lies (we will have an emergency brake on immigration! EU regulations have no direct effect, so we are way more sovereign!)
- that it offers none of the things that Leave-voters want (end FoM, no EU laws)
- that it takes all the boogeyman problems of the EU (lack of democratic accountability, too much power in the commission) and makes them far more real (we won't have any elected representation in parliament, EU council* or Council of the EU*, and not even any British commissioners. EFTA-type representation is a landlord/tennant relationship at best and a master/slave one at worst).

But hey, at least Turkey, Iran and Iraq won't be joining Common Market 2.0 and there's no Common Market 2.0 army to conscript us all.

*I always imagine these two constantly slagging each other off in their closed meetings, like the Judean People's Front (and both must think that the Council of Europe can fuck right off). Considering that May has no control of her cabinet, I could see the Council of the EU and the EU council getting totally different positions from their UK representatives.
 
Dave.

Dave.

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Oct 27, 2017
6,155
Welp, copyright directive passes complete with article 13. Time for a quick Brexit! We can make our new country the meme capital of Europe (the continent!)
 
Number45

Number45

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Oct 25, 2017
5,038
null said:
Sounds like a load of bs to me. They knew what they were voting for and the big row today is about Tory MPs wanting a free vote.
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I assume these are people that want to remain in the EU and maintain our current power in the bloc. Otherwise, given the current possible alternatives, what do they have against the new CU proposals?
 
MrKlaw

MrKlaw

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Oct 25, 2017
33,101
the MV3 that May said doesn't command support so she won't present it?

So she'll wait for the Wednesday votes to potentially provide some hope of a way forward, then either refuse to enact the result or make it 'my deal or the result from wednesday'
 
Maledict

Maledict

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Oct 25, 2017
4,089
She's hoping that the Wednesday votes show the largest majority for revoking or referendum. She'll then use that bludgeon the DUP and ERG into voting for her deal, along with potentially announcing her retirement date.

Of course, the fact that those things change people's objections to the backstop show how much of a lie those protections were. Aside from the DuP, it's clear that the ERG were opposing this deal because they were hoping for a no deal situation.
 

Deleted member 32018

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The problem the ERG have got now is the fact that the DUP want different things to them. The ERG want to leave the EU and don't care at what cost. The DUP want to leave the EU at almost any cost except at the cost of the Union.
 
Boy Wander

Boy Wander

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Oct 29, 2017
2,126
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Interesting coverage on the BBC. 8/10 people on both sides of the fence think the government has handled this whole thing badly.
Also, only 6% of Leavers think we'll get a good deal.

Current Leave/Remain split in polls: 55/45.
 

DeltaRed

Member
Apr 27, 2018
5,746
Get a long extension to Brexit, negotiate a Norway type deal/Softer Brexit, and that Remain/Leave split will get wider by the time it comes to decide.
 
Funky Papa

Funky Papa

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Oct 28, 2017
4,694
I know that nobody wants to fuck over the Irish to spare the UK from its own foolishness, but at some point the EU is going dig its heels and say enough.
 

DeltaRed

Member
Apr 27, 2018
5,746
Xando said:
It's still astonishing remain isn't higher up.
Considering the demographics i think leave will win any referendum until remain is >60%.

2nd referendum is still way too dangerous.
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The press in this country heavily influence people. If you read the newspapers Brexit will turn the UK into a (white) utopia.
 
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Dougald

Dougald

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Oct 27, 2017
1,937
Dave. said:
Welp, copyright directive passes complete with article 13. Time for a quick Brexit! We can make our new country the meme capital of Europe (the continent!)
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Honestly, given that you're going to need a Porn license next month, I expect May to pass article 13-like regulations here anyway. It's right up her alley
 
discogs

discogs

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Oct 28, 2017
356
London
We just need the reality to hit home that a soft Brexit/Norway deal is pointless in comparison to what we have now. It's always been like this.

Leaving the EU is just not worth it. The only way to leave it definitively is Hard Brexit and that's suicidal.

What we need is a softer Brexit to be organised and then put to the people, and then they'll reject it because it's not enough for the moronic Brexiteers.
 

pulsemyne

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,644
The DUP will never vote for her deal because of the backstop. That issue has not gone away in any way shape or form.

Edit: DUP now saying they want a one year delay as " a 1 year Brexit delay would be a "better strategy than volunteering to be locked into the prison of the withdrawal deal with the cell door key in the pocket of Michel Barnier"
 
JediTimeBoy

JediTimeBoy

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Oct 27, 2017
6,810
Didn't see this mentioned before:

"Downing Street aides directly asked hard-Brexit Conservatives at Chequers on Sunday whether Theresa May's resignation as prime minister would be enough to get them to endorse finally the exit deal struck with the European Union, it has emerged.


The afternoon summit at the prime minister's country retreat was carefully choreographed so that Boris Johnson, Iain Duncan Smith, Jacob Rees-Mogg and other Tory rebels present ended up in one-to-one chats with key No 10 staffers when the main meeting periodically broke up.


A source said that in those private conversations several aides to the prime minister present asked whether it would help them vote for the controversial Brexit deal if May were to quit. "It didn't look like a coincidence; aides like this are not meant to think for themselves," they added."...

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ey-would-back-brexit-deal-if-theresa-may-quit
 
discogs

discogs

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Oct 28, 2017
356
London
pulsemyne said:
The DUP will never vote for her deal because of the backstop. That issue has not gone away in any way shape or form.
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Yup. I don't think we'll get long extensions though despite the DUP saying that's what they want (see The Guardian). There is a Commons majority for no long extension - so I think Theresa will let the Commons take that issue out of her hands (and further alienating her pact with the DUP hahaha).

I think it'll go to a vote that's either Norway, Theresa's Deal or some other softer Brexit vs. Remain. And then my friends - is the time - to rally the troops! #Remain
 
CampFreddie

CampFreddie

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Oct 25, 2017
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I expect May will say (again) that she'll only resign after a deal is passed.
So if any Tories want her gone now, they need to pass her deal or wait until a "long extension" is over.
It won't work though.

Personally, I think a referendum on "Leave with no deal" versus "Revoke and remain" would be the best solution.
It screws over the "moderate" Brexiteers, but I don't think they really care and won't cause much trouble. I don't think anyone believes that soft brexit is actually a good idea, rather than a shitty compromise. Meanwhile, the ERG and Brexit ultras will be forced to acknowledge that the people don't actually want their bullshit.*

If we had a Soft Brexit (with FoM) versus Remain referendum, it would be seen as a total stitch-up by most leave voters, who will feel (rightly) disenfranchised because they voted to stop immigration and have no option that does this.

We could have a multi-option referendum with preference voting, but I'm pretty certain that no-one would understand how it works, or at least feign ignorance so as to blame any result they don't like on the "political/metropolitan/remainer elite".

And if we have no referendum, then we will get a Brexit that the large majority hate (regardless of what type is chosen by parliament), or we'll show a complete lack of respect for democracy by revoking A.50 without any mandate from the people.

*alternate ending, no deal wins referendum and the economy drifts into a terminal decline until Larry the Cat leads the country into a golden age after every inhabitant of Number 10 dies mysteriously from toxoplasmosis.
 
Rodelero

Rodelero

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Oct 27, 2017
11,557
Xando said:
It's still astonishing remain isn't higher up.
Considering the demographics i think leave will win any referendum until remain is >60%.

2nd referendum is still way too dangerous.
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There's this kind of weird assumption that comes from both defeatist remainers and optimistic leavers that suggests, should a second referendum be called, the real vote would skew significantly towards Leave when compared to polls. There's no actual logic behind this - pollsters aren't always right by any means but they aren't ignoring demographics either. They are making various guesses to try and sample correctly and properly estimate who is truly likely to vote. It's just as likely that polling of 55/45 to Remain would turn into a 60/40 victory as a tight 50/50 race. 2016 is not a model for how voting works, it can go both ways and does.

A second referendum would by no means be a guaranteed win for Remain, but the polling should give people some confidence that Remain would win even if it was a rerun of the 2016 question. It seems more likely that Remain would face off against specific versions of Leave to me, at which point I think Remain would very likely triumph. It's more likely that Remain would win a second referendum than a second referendum being held, I think.
 

DeltaRed

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Apr 27, 2018
5,746
A second referendum where remains wins by 52/48 would be the greatest thing in the world. I'd prefer it to even a huge majority just to see the reactions and hypocrisy from all sides.
 

Deleted member 862

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May saying she'll quit if her deal goes through should terrify the other Tories really because the political deceleration on the future agreement between the UK and EU is so empty and meaningless the KKK Grand Wizards could turn it into anything.
 
Boy Wander

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Rodelero said:
There's this kind of weird assumption that comes from both defeatist remainers and optimistic leavers that suggests, should a second referendum be called, the real vote would skew significantly towards Leave when compared to polls. There's no actual logic behind this - pollsters aren't always right by any means but they aren't ignoring demographics either. They are making various guesses to try and sample correctly and properly estimate who is truly likely to vote. It's just as likely that polling of 55/45 to Remain would turn into a 60/40 victory as a tight 50/50 race. 2016 is not a model for how voting works, it can go both ways and does.

A second referendum would by no means be a guaranteed win for Remain, but the polling should give people some confidence that Remain would win even if it was a rerun of the 2016 question. It seems more likely that Remain would face off against specific versions of Leave to me, at which point I think Remain would very likely triumph. It's more likely that Remain would win a second referendum than a second referendum being held, I think.
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If we have a second referendum and Leave won again, do you think Remainers would say "fair enough"?
 
JediTimeBoy

JediTimeBoy

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Oct 27, 2017
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Say there was a 2nd ref; is the result more important than the margin of victory, e.g. 49.9% to 50.1% ? Should there be a minimum percentage, and what's the status quo if that target isn't met?
 
plagiarize

plagiarize

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Oct 25, 2017
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discogs said:
Yup. I don't think we'll get long extensions though despite the DUP saying that's what they want (see The Guardian). There is a Commons majority for no long extension - so I think Theresa will let the Commons take that issue out of her hands (and further alienating her pact with the DUP hahaha).

I think it'll go to a vote that's either Norway, Theresa's Deal or some other softer Brexit vs. Remain. And then my friends - is the time - to rally the troops! #Remain
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I'm not sure how anything other than the WA, crashing out, or withdrawing A50 will avoid a long extension. The UK will have until April 11th to present something else to the EU because if the UK want to do something other than those three options, then they have to hold MEP elections and need to give at least 45 days (or whatever) notice to give everyone time to print the right ballots, etc. That's only happening with a long extension.
 
Protome

Protome

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Oct 27, 2017
15,716
Boy Wander said:
If we have a second referendum and Leave won again, do you think Remainers would say "fair enough"?
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Of course not. A second referendum doesn't change the detrimental impact of Leave.

JediTimeBoy said:
Say there was a 2nd ref; is the result more important than the margin of victory, e.g. 49.9% to 50.1% ? Should there be a minimum percentage, and what's the status quo if that target isn't met?
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In practice, no the margin of victory or the number of voters shouldn't actually matter because it didn't the first time. You can bet that Leavers would never let it go if Remain only won by a small percentage or if less people voted in the second ref.
 
JediTimeBoy

JediTimeBoy

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Oct 27, 2017
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Protome said:
In practice, no the margin of victory or the number of voters shouldn't actually matter because it didn't the first time. You can bet that Leavers would never let it go if Remain only won by a small percentage or if less people voted in the second ref.
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Zafir said:
Considering the first one stupidly didn't have a minimum requirement, adding one to this one is silly.
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Should there have been a margin the first time round? If so, would it be "just" to implement one in a 2nd ref? Or is it a case of what's good for the goose, is good for the gander?
 
Protome

Protome

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Oct 27, 2017
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JediTimeBoy said:
Should there have been a margin the first time round? If so, would it be "just" to implement one in a 2nd ref?
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There's definitely an argument to be made that originally it should have been a supermajority required for it, given even then we knew Leave would be incredibly damaging for the country, even if not exactly how bad it'd be. Or that it should have been handled on a per-Union Member basis instead of UK wide, so that Scotland and NI couldn't be dragged out against their will. I don't think it can really be justified to do it for a 2nd ref. Especially because which side is the "Status Quo" that a supermajority would be needed to change is up for debate now.

Is Remain the status quo because we are still in the EU? Or is Leave the status quo because we are currently in the process of leaving?
 
Boy Wander

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Mavis said:
I think if the 2nd referendum had a clear route towards leaving and everyone knew what exactly they were voting for then yes. The problem with the first referendum was the total lack of direction, it was Remain vs whatever bullshit we can imagine.
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That's the whole problem I guess. It's obvious what 'Remain' means. They should have pointed out what 'Leave' means before the referendum. I.e. There should have been May type agreement (or equivalent) so people could see what it would actually entail.
 
Tygre

Tygre

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Oct 25, 2017
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The issue with polling Leave vs Remain at this point is that "Leave" is STILL a massive nebulous hodgepodge of wishful thinking, while Remain is a cold hard factual outcome.

The only sensible questions are "May's Deal" vs Remain or "No Deal" vs Remain since those are the only actual positions currently on the table.

Once you nail down "Leave" to a specific form of leaving, Remain wins in a landslide.
 
Masquerader

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Boy Wander said:
If we have a second referendum and Leave won again, do you think Remainers would say "fair enough"?
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Well, it would confirm my suspicions that England is an active danger and wannabe enemy to NI and the entire island of Ireland, so yes, fair enough, at least it'd make a few things clearer. I'd firmly accept that they're irredeemable.
 
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theaface

theaface

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Oct 25, 2017
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Apologies I don't know the original source, but saw this on the Brexit subreddit and thought it was... curious...

D2kcJzOW0AA2CQk.jpg


Note the bottom table and the fall in number of people over time who are willing to admit, even to pollsters, that they voted leave. Either that or a sizable chunk of them died.
 
Boy Wander

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Masquerader said:
Well, it would confirm my suspicions that England is an active danger and wannabe enemy to NI and the entire island of Ireland, so yes, fair enough, at least it'd make a few things clearer. I'd firmly accept that they're irredeemable.
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I think a lot of English people think of themselves as English first, British second.

Also, in a close vote, it's a bit harsh to be writing off "England" when nearly half of the population voted to Remain.
 
Protome

Protome

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Oct 27, 2017
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Boy Wander said:
I think a lot of English people think of themselves as English first, British second.

Also, in a close vote, it's a bit harsh to be writing off "England" when nearly half of the population voted to Remain.
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It's only harsh because he said England and not "England and Wales."

Although sure, not all English and Welsh voters were bad, but it is English and Welsh voters that got us into this mess.
 
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MrKlaw

MrKlaw

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Oct 25, 2017
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Masquerader said:
Well, it would confirm my suspicions that England is an active danger and wannabe enemy to NI and the entire island of Ireland, so yes, fair enough, at least it'd make a few things clearer. I'd firmly accept that they're irredeemable.
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Sadly Ireland never even came up during the referendum campaign. It was all NHS bus bullshit and other lies/scares. I don't recall anything of substance during the entire campaign.
 
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