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plagiarize

It's not a loop. It's a spiral.
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
27,647
Cape Cod, MA
Well terrorism laws are more strict today than they were during the Troubles, as well as restrictions on various types of weapons and bomb making material. On top of that, the IRA had to give up their weapons caches in 2001 as part of Good Friday.

The attempted bombing last month was just some misguided kids trying to bring back the good ol days of the IRA, it wasn't part of some organized campaign.
Borders suddenly existing where they didn't before have a terrible record when it comes to violence. Reclosing this one, wouldn't go well. Add in all the resentment towards the UK that will be felt on both sides of the border, and the fears are far from baseless.
 

Faddy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,178
I mean, what would actually happen with a hard border between RoI and NI? Anyone saying the days of the IRA are going to come back are fooling themselves.

An organisation calling themselves the IRA just sent a number of incendiary devices the other week.

A hard border will lead to smuggling which will lead to organised crime which leads to violence.

You are fooling yourself if you believe that a return to violence in Northern Ireland is not a distinct possibility. The political solution of Stormont is pretty much abandoned at this point.
 

Antrax

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,327
I have to admit to being both a) English and b) rather ignorant of the details of the sensitivities around the Irish issue.

Is there a solution that is a) acceptable to Ireland (North and South) and b) allows for leaving the customs union / single market? Or is that an impossibility. If the latter, shouldn't that have been recognised years ago as a non-starter option.


This kinda thing illustrates the issue. Any hindrance to this is gonna bring back a ton of violence, and is a blatant violation of the GFA. The only options here are to either stay in the EU/stay EU-adjacent (IE customs union or some such), or put the hard border in the sea instead of the land and let NI stay in. But since the DUP are kingmakers, they'll never let the latter happen. And since the Tories don't want the former, the UK arrives at this impasse.
 

ImTheresaMay

Banned
Jan 15, 2018
523
An organisation calling themselves the IRA just sent a number of incendiary devices the other week.

A hard border will lead to smuggling which will lead to organised crime which leads to violence.

You are fooling yourself if you believe that a return to violence in Northern Ireland is not a distinct possibility. The political solution of Stormont is pretty much abandoned at this point.

Is there any evidence the bombs came from an actual IRA group that's not just some kids?

Mary Lou McDonald said the other day a hard border will not mean a return to violence.

I'm not saying absolutely no violence will happen, but the chances of coordinated campaigns are slim.
 

Zastava

Member
Feb 19, 2018
2,108
London
Is there any evidence the bombs came from an actual IRA group that's not just some kids?

Mary Lou McDonald said the other day a hard border will not mean a return to violence.

I'm not saying absolutely no violence will happen, but the chances of coordinated campaigns are slim.
That's a nice risk you're willing to take on behalf of other people.
 

plagiarize

It's not a loop. It's a spiral.
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
27,647
Cape Cod, MA
Is there any evidence the bombs came from an actual IRA group that's not just some kids?

Mary Lou McDonald said the other day a hard border will not mean a return to violence.

I'm not saying absolutely no violence will happen, but the chances of coordinated campaigns are slim.
I don't think bombs cease being a problem when it's 'just some kids' planting them.
 

Kalor

Resettlement Advisor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,653
I don't even want to imagine what the situation in NI will be like with a hard border. You still see news about shootings and attacks fairly frequently and I can only imagine that would intensify, and also lead to bigger acts of violence. It's one thing to talk about bombs and bomb threats but there's way more to it than that.
 

Antrax

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,327

British people cast their votes once again in the 2017 general election where over 80% of those who voted, voted for parties, including the opposition, who committed in their manifestos to upholding the result of the referendum.

Uuggggggghhhh

I mean, what would actually happen with a hard border between RoI and NI? Anyone saying the days of the IRA are going to come back are fooling themselves.

This feels like an extremely Empire-y statement. A hard border is basically just the UK saying they're shredding the GFA. This isn't 1619 anymore; they don't get to just ignore or fuck up treaties as they like and not expect a backlash.

edit: Hell, just think about what'll happen at the checkpoints they'll have to set up! People taking potshots at workers there, to say nothing of bombs and fire. Those will be easy targets for violence.
 

DBT85

Resident Thread Mechanic
Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,397
Is there any evidence the bombs came from an actual IRA group that's not just some kids?

Mary Lou McDonald said the other day a hard border will not mean a return to violence.

I'm not saying absolutely no violence will happen, but the chances of coordinated campaigns are slim.

I would not want to bet on that with peoples lives.
 

ImTheresaMay

Banned
Jan 15, 2018
523
I'm not arguing for a hard border, believe me I'd love to see a united socialist Ireland, but what I'm saying is that the political realities of NI are very different than what they were only two decades ago. You have a whole new generation of adults growing up knowing peace, and I think that'll deter a lot of any sort of violence from happening in the case of a hard border.
 

Calderc

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,964
I'm not arguing for a hard border, believe me I'd love to see a united socialist Ireland, but what I'm saying is that the political realities of NI are very different than what they were only two decades ago. You have a whole new generation of adults growing up knowing peace, and I think that'll deter a lot of any sort of violence from happening in the case of a hard border.
You're taking this gimmick posting a bit too far.
 

Lo-Volt

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,436
Philadelphia
I'm not arguing for a hard border, believe me I'd love to see a united socialist Ireland, but what I'm saying is that the political realities of NI are very different than what they were only two decades ago. You have a whole new generation of adults growing up knowing peace, and I think that'll deter a lot of any sort of violence from happening in the case of a hard border.

That peace relies on an open border, unified devolved government, and the option for Northern Irish residents to take Irish citizenship. The first is at grave risk over time (because inevitably, the EU may force a hard border or checks to protect its integrity) and the second is moribund. How will they respond to the end of regional neutrality? For that matter, how will Northern Irish people deal with the continued discontinuity in local social policy? For example, abortion!

The older residents are also: not dead, and not retired from their points of view. One of them works in Arlene Foster's constituency office and was interview by The Guardian's traveling correspondent, John Harris, for his video series. She flatly said she'd "put on her uniform" if the Brexit result was unsatisfactory. What should we think she meant by that?
 

JediTimeBoy

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,810


Tweet says: ' "If we vote down the PM's deal there's a growing risk we won't leave at all", says Boris Johnson to scores of boos [from Telegraph subscribers] '.
 

Maledict

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,115
I'm not arguing for a hard border, believe me I'd love to see a united socialist Ireland, but what I'm saying is that the political realities of NI are very different than what they were only two decades ago. You have a whole new generation of adults growing up knowing peace, and I think that'll deter a lot of any sort of violence from happening in the case of a hard border.

No offence, but you really don't understand what you are talking about at all. Either in terms of terrorism specific stuff or the situation in Ireland. England tearing up the GFA and reimposing a hard border in Ireland would absolutely lead to violence, and that could easily involve a return to organised terrorist activity.

And re a new generation of young adults growing up, what? Because the young people whose entire lives being changed in a massively negative way by a government in another country who doesn't give a fuck about them, and where institutional prejudice against catholics still takes place, would definitely have NO reason to be angry or resort to violence.
 

Deleted member 31104

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
2,572
I mean, what would actually happen with a hard border between RoI and NI? Anyone saying the days of the IRA are going to come back are fooling themselves.

A hard border and a return to direct rule? Essentially completely undoing the peace settlement? I wouldn't be parking my car near a police station in Derry that's all I'm saying.
It wouldn't be the IRA coming back immediately, it'd be an upswell from a couple of the dissidents, probably a car bombing campaign but on a magnitude bigger than the low level stuff which has continued, sooner or later a mistake will be made and someone will get hurt. The loyalists will react, and then that's when the real IRA (no not the 'real' IRA) will step back in.

People in the UK forget, it was actually Loyalist terrorism which triggered the troubles in the first place. The IRA took nearly 2 years to get involved, and frankly that was a much to do with British troops than anything else.
 

Podge293

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,760
I mean, what would actually happen with a hard border between RoI and NI? Anyone saying the days of the IRA are going to come back are fooling themselves.

Youre talking out your arse.

They're already active they never stopped being active.

A hard border would essentially mean the UK are ignoring the good Friday agreement.

The IRA would increase their activity up the North considerably.
 

Garfield

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 31, 2018
2,772


Going to be interesting when no option gets a majority (sounds likely imo)



See this is what pisses me off, Parliament finally have a chance for a serious cross party sensible way forward, but no, people cant leave it alone, coming up with stupid amendments that are never going to pass

We all criticise ERG, but I bet remainers are about to be as bad, and anything that is not remain will get voted down
 

DBT85

Resident Thread Mechanic
Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,397
Someone table an amendment that if there is no deal the day before, we all get free cake.

That's about as likely to pass.
 

Zafir

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,116
See this is what pisses me off, Parliament finally have a chance for a serious cross party sensible way forward, but no, people cant leave it alone, coming up with stupid amendments that are never going to pass

We all criticise ERG, but I bet remainers are about to be as bad, and anything that is not remain will get voted down
This is why I think the vote should have allowed people to vote in order of preference.
 

Psychotext

Member
Oct 30, 2017
16,763
Youre talking out your arse.

They're already active they never stopped being active.

A hard border would essentially mean the UK are ignoring the good Friday agreement.

The IRA would increase their activity up the North considerably.
Vaguely related, a friend living in the republic has been threatened a couple of times recently because he's English (Brexit edged).

This shit hasn't gone away. It's just below the surface.
 

Deleted member 862

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,646
See this is what pisses me off, Parliament finally have a chance for a serious cross party sensible way forward, but no, people cant leave it alone, coming up with stupid amendments that are never going to pass

We all criticise ERG, but I bet remainers are about to be as bad, and anything that is not remain will get voted down
It doesn't help that you've got a bunch of chancers building their new political careers on the back of it by promising what they know they can't deliver (how ironic)
 

FSP

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,644
London, United Kingdom
May's main hope here is that the Letwin votes end up signalling to the ERG etc that obstruction = soft or no Brexit.

I.e. "I'll go if you vote for the WA, and if you don't we'll never leave the SM/CU."

This gives her the absolute best chance possible of getting her act past.
 

Deleted member 862

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,646
May's main hope here is that the Letwin votes end up signalling to the ERG etc that obstruction = soft or no Brexit.

I.e. "I'll go if you vote for the WA, and if you don't we'll never leave the SM/CU."

This gives her the absolute best chance possible of getting her act past.
Does anyone actually believe May will go? All those comments recently about her wanting to see through a domestic policy that she feels she hasn't had a chance to implement doesn't seem like someone who's ready to walk away.
 

Koukalaka

Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,373
Scotland
May's main hope here is that the Letwin votes end up signalling to the ERG etc that obstruction = soft or no Brexit.

I.e. "I'll go if you vote for the WA, and if you don't we'll never leave the SM/CU."

This gives her the absolute best chance possible of getting her act past.

This is why I'm more than a little fearful, although the DUP not being on-board and seemingly preferring a long extension helps.
 

plagiarize

It's not a loop. It's a spiral.
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
27,647
Cape Cod, MA
I'm not arguing for a hard border, believe me I'd love to see a united socialist Ireland, but what I'm saying is that the political realities of NI are very different than what they were only two decades ago. You have a whole new generation of adults growing up knowing peace, and I think that'll deter a lot of any sort of violence from happening in the case of a hard border.
You: Things are really different because a whole new generation of adults have grown up knowing only peace.
Also you: Those bombings were just done by stupid kids so they don't indicate anything!
 

Crispy75

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,058
I work with a load of NI people and this topic came up the other day. I said something along the lines of "once the old generation dies, reunification could happen" and their reply was "no. the people alive today remember the troubles and just want peace. The young have no idea what it was like, and so have found it easy to slip into hardline points of view." They were not optimistic at all about the prospects for peace in a Hard/No Deal Brexit scenario.
 

Blue Lou

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,479
Petition response:

It remains the Government's firm policy not to revoke Article 50. We will honour the outcome of the 2016 referendum and work to deliver an exit which benefits everyone, whether they voted to Leave or to Remain.

Revoking Article 50, and thereby remaining in the European Union, would undermine both our democracy and the trust that millions of voters have placed in Government.

The Government acknowledges the considerable number of people who have signed this petition. However, close to three quarters of the electorate took part in the 2016 referendum, trusting that the result would be respected. This Government wrote to every household prior to the referendum, promising that the outcome of the referendum would be implemented. 17.4 million people then voted to leave the European Union, providing the biggest democratic mandate for any course of action ever directed at UK Government.

British people cast their votes once again in the 2017 General Election where over 80% of those who voted, voted for parties, including the Opposition, who committed in their manifestos to upholding the result of the referendum.

This Government stands by this commitment.

Revoking Article 50 would break the promises made by Government to the British people, disrespect the clear instruction from a democratic vote, and in turn, reduce confidence in our democracy. As the Prime Minister has said, failing to deliver Brexit would cause "potentially irreparable damage to public trust", and it is imperative that people can trust their Government to respect their votes and deliver the best outcome for them.

Department for Exiting the European Union.
 

Deleted member 13077

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,513


"Beckett amendment is the new Kyle Wilson; whatever happens, it has to go back to the people for confirmation"

Looks like we've got the 2nd referendum in there. Can't see how it gets through though.
 

Kyougar

Cute Animal Whisperer
Member
Nov 3, 2017
9,400
I work with a load of NI people and this topic came up the other day. I said something along the lines of "once the old generation dies, reunification could happen" and their reply was "no. the people alive today remember the troubles and just want peace. The young have no idea what it was like, and so have found it easy to slip into hardline points of view." They were not optimistic at all about the prospects for peace in a Hard/No Deal Brexit scenario.

NI will ask for Reunification if the Uk implodes
 

Stuart444

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,074
I just wish someone would actually challenge this notion of "The people have spoken"

I mean, why not have a Peoples aka CONFIRMATORY vote to make sure you are executing the Will of the People.

Idiots x.x
 

Deleted member 14649

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,524
I am genuinely scared that some MPs understand the situation in NI as bizarrely inaccurately as some posters in this thread. Wow.
 

Deleted member 13077

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,513
I just wish someone would actually challenge this notion of "The people have spoken"

I mean, why not have a Peoples aka CONFIRMATORY vote to make sure you are executing the Will of the People.

Idiots x.x

You want the honest answer?

Because the leaving of the EU means that the likes of JRM and his lizard mates will avoid being investigated for tax evasion when the EU start going hard after it next year.

The referendum was an absolute blessing for these cunts when it came back that people voted to leave, and now most of them are terrified a second referendum might undo it all.
 

Deleted member 13077

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,513


"Up until now Labour have only backed a public vote on a "credible" deal - which it had defined as its own permanent customs union - now it appears to be backing a PV on any deal the PM manages to push through - her own, Norway, Canada, whatever..."

Labour going to whip in favour of a 2nd referendum?
 

Zastava

Member
Feb 19, 2018
2,108
London
AND? Are they some kind of evil mastermind that would have any power in stopping a reunification?
The SED couldn't do shit when the people demanded Reunification in Germany.
That's nice. They're also supported by a huge chunk of the population, including loyalist nutters who happily committed terrorism. You don't know what the fuck you're talking about.
 

Kyougar

Cute Animal Whisperer
Member
Nov 3, 2017
9,400
That's nice. They're also supported by a huge chunk of the population, including loyalist nutters who happily committed terrorism. You don't know what the fuck you're talking about.

And what kind of future do you see for Northern Ireland in a broken UK (ergo, independent NI) scenario? The UNION is the whole shtick of the DUP. Their support from the rest of the UK legitimized them.

Either:
1. There is not enough fanatism in today's NI population and a peaceful reunification can be achieved in a timely matter (let's be real, NI as an independent nation has no economic future)
or
2. The troubles come back and NI spirals into a civil war because they have no outside police force (UK) who could forcefully implement martial law.
 

Zastava

Member
Feb 19, 2018
2,108
London
And what kind of future do you see for Northern Ireland in a broken UK (ergo, independent NI) scenario? The UNION is the whole shtick of the DUP. Their support from the rest of the UK legitimized them.

Either:
1. There is not enough fanatism in today's NI population and a peaceful reunification can be achieved in a timely matter (let's be real, NI as an independent nation has no economic future)
or
2. The troubles come back and NI spirals into a civil war because they have no outside police force (UK) who could forcefully implement martial law.
It'll be option 2, though I'm not clear on why you think rUK, possibly sans Scotland, wouldn't be able to get involved.
 
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