Easy Rider

Member
Nov 2, 2017
926
Whoa, trying to trade this down market sure is an adrenaline rush. Got out with some profit and I really don't want to try again.
 

djplaeskool

Member
Oct 26, 2017
19,957
Alright, my moves have been made.
Hand over the Press Your Luck plunger.
Big money, no whammies....and.....
 

Spuck-

Banned
Nov 7, 2017
996
Crypto overall has been an abject lesson in the history of economics, and why letting free rein of markets is not a good idea.
 

Brandson

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,219
9k to 9.2k ended up being 9k to 9.1k
8.5k to 9k ended up being 8.4k to 9.2k
Now GDAX below 8.1k. Pretty close to my guess so far I think.

How I see this going from here: BTC breaks below 8k on some volume, selling picks up below 8k, briefly falls below the 200d SMA on 1D timeframe ($7.8k), and bounces hard from somewhere in the $7.4k to 7.8k zone. Bounce could be to $9k or $10k. If you're in fiat, I suggest you watch that region closely today.

Anyone buy the dip? I did, for approximately +50% ETH stack size increase. I started DCA buying ETH from 780 down to 730 in small chunks, before buying in with the rest when it bounced.

The market moving as I predicted, which is both exciting and a bit unnerving for me. BTC bounced from $7.5k GDAX and bounced to 8.9k BTC so far. BTC may rise to the $9.5k to $10k range from here, but I am not super confident about that yet. Need to study the charts some more now.

The bounce target is the hardest one to get right. These markets always like to retest the bottoms. To signal the end of a correction, they especially like to see a double bottom with RSI divergence on 1D timeframes, but the volume on this bounce is what I was looking for, so it could go either way. If it does do a bottom retest, it may take a few days, or maybe a week, for the market to attempt that kind of a move. It could even do it today, but I don't think so.

For now, I'm pretty satisfied with how this is going, and am holding and watching. If ETH bounces off $1100, I may look to sell some, or if it looks like it's going to fall below my DCA buy-in average.
 

djplaeskool

Member
Oct 26, 2017
19,957
Alright. Bought the dip, rode the rise, moved the gains back into ETH. Now waiting to see where things will go from here.

This is fucking stressful. lol
 

Brandson

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,219
You're probably already aware but its worth saying so everyone else knows, but Brandson has just put an immense amount of his time into learning and broadening his TA skills on BTC & ETH. Whilst there is no concrete method to predicting the market with 100% accuracy, trends and signs are shown and he is really, really good at it. Nothing but respect.

Thanks. This is exactly right. The charts have a lot to say, if you know what you're looking for. And do not underestimate the importance of studying BTC and ETH fractals. That means, study how they tend to move in an uptrend, in a downtrend, and compare the current trend to previous big moves to look for common signals. There is a lot of luck involved with this too, since news could drop at any moment and interrupt the trend. Happy this worked out so far.
 

nonuser

Member
Oct 27, 2017
499
Thanks. This is exactly right. The charts have a lot to say, if you know what you're looking for. And do not underestimate the importance of studying BTC and ETH fractals. That means, study how they tend to move in an uptrend, in a downtrend, and compare the current trend to previous big moves to look for common signals. There is a lot of luck involved with this too, since news could drop at any moment and interrupt the trend. Happy this worked out so far.

Still, thanks for providing your insights to us, that haven't put in as much effort in studying these charts as you!

And I wish you the best luck at making $ :)!
 

djplaeskool

Member
Oct 26, 2017
19,957
Thanks. This is exactly right. The charts have a lot to say, if you know what you're looking for. And do not underestimate the importance of studying BTC and ETH fractals. That means, study how they tend to move in an uptrend, in a downtrend, and compare the current trend to previous big moves to look for common signals. There is a lot of luck involved with this too, since news could drop at any moment and interrupt the trend. Happy this worked out so far.

Indeed, hats off to you sir. This has been an enlightening, educational, and best of all, profitable experience for me personally. You have been a fantastic navigator.

Al3ev.gif
 

Dilly

Member
Oct 26, 2017
591
Anyone buy the dip? I did, for approximately +50% ETH stack size increase. I started DCA buying ETH from 780 down to 730 in small chunks, before buying in with the rest when it bounced.

The market moving as I predicted, which is both exciting and a bit unnerving for me. BTC bounced from $7.5k GDAX and bounced to 8.9k BTC so far. BTC may rise to the $9.5k to $10k range from here, but I am not super confident about that yet. Need to study the charts some more now.

The bounce target is the hardest one to get right. These markets always like to retest the bottoms. To signal the end of a correction, they especially like to see a double bottom with RSI divergence on 1D timeframes, but the volume on this bounce is what I was looking for, so it could go either way. If it does do a bottom retest, it may take a few days, or maybe a week, for the market to attempt that kind of a move. It could even do it today, but I don't think so.

For now, I'm pretty satisfied with how this is going, and am holding and watching. If ETH bounces off $1100, I may look to sell some, or if it looks like it's going to fall below my DCA buy-in average.

Managed to get back in just after that crazy BTC spike. Made some proftits back.

Thanks again for your insights here.
 

Dosia

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
385
I should have bought in small chunks like you did Brandson. I was going to buy all at once and missed the jump. I guess once BTC approaches 7k again I will start doing that.
 

Sayre

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
729
Anyone buy the dip? I did, for approximately +50% ETH stack size increase. I started DCA buying ETH from 780 down to 730 in small chunks, before buying in with the rest when it bounced.

The market moving as I predicted, which is both exciting and a bit unnerving for me. BTC bounced from $7.5k GDAX and bounced to 8.9k BTC so far. BTC may rise to the $9.5k to $10k range from here, but I am not super confident about that yet. Need to study the charts some more now.

The bounce target is the hardest one to get right. These markets always like to retest the bottoms. To signal the end of a correction, they especially like to see a double bottom with RSI divergence on 1D timeframes, but the volume on this bounce is what I was looking for, so it could go either way. If it does do a bottom retest, it may take a few days, or maybe a week, for the market to attempt that kind of a move. It could even do it today, but I don't think so.

For now, I'm pretty satisfied with how this is going, and am holding and watching. If ETH bounces off $1100, I may look to sell some, or if it looks like it's going to fall below my DCA buy-in average.
Thanks for the insights Brandson. I bought in the 750 range and sold some in the 940 range to lock in some profits. I do expect it to retest the bottom again. Hoping to capitalize there. Been learning on how to read charts and it's helped me make better decisions though I still make lots of mistakes lol.
 

Naked Snake

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,105
And just like that cryptotwitter turns bullish, a 180 turn from few hours ago.

Except this guy (who has no followers but I like his insights):

 

killerrin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,296
Toronto
I was just thinking that yesterday. Wouldn't the absolute bottom have to be somewhere around the cost it takes to mine it? Mainly because if the Miners aren't making money they are just going to stop outright and then the entire thing falls apart.
 

tommy7154

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,370
How does Nano work on Binance? I can put in a buy amount or a sell amount but cant see what everyone else is doing? If thats how it goes how long is it like that?
 

Naked Snake

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,105
I was just thinking that yesterday. Wouldn't the absolute bottom have to be somewhere around the cost it takes to mine it? Mainly because if the Miners aren't making money they are just going to stop outright and then the entire thing falls apart.
Makes sense, doesn't mean it will get to the absolute bottom though. But yeah it's good to know there's still a long way to go before mining stops being profitable.
 

Brandson

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,219


That was the bottom winning.


My answer: I don't know if that was the bottom, but I'm planning my next move for either case. There are good arguments for both scenarios.

In the short term, BTC is potentially forming an ascending wedge now on shorter timeframes. Breaking below 8700 could cause it to tumble a little, possibly to the 8k range. I'm just holding and watching for now.
 

Spuck-

Banned
Nov 7, 2017
996
I was just thinking that yesterday. Wouldn't the absolute bottom have to be somewhere around the cost it takes to mine it? Mainly because if the Miners aren't making money they are just going to stop outright and then the entire thing falls apart.

The absolute bottom is that scenario, at which point every Bitcoin has an effective value of 0
 

cryptoadam

Banned
Jan 2, 2018
400
Tether is currently valued at under $1, there's no reason to pump right now other than to expose themselves as being a fraud.

Right now a legitimate Tether would be buying back and burning tokens, which I think they've done a little of

I think there is something fishy with tether but I also think a lot of it is overblown and FUD because everything was crashing.

My position is Tether printed so much to keep up with demand and keep it at par with USD. Market crashed and everyone wanted to move from crypto to tether to avoid the volatility. I don't believe tether has 2 + billion in reserves, but I also don't think everyone is going to cash out of tether tomorrow.

Is it fishy that the owner of bitfinex owns tether, for sure. Is it fishy that they can just print tethers out of thin air sure. I just don't feel that those 2 things are going to be enough to wipe out crypto and BTC.

BTC is still going to drop IMO. I think we can see 6K over the weekend.
 

Brandson

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,219
And just like that cryptotwitter turns bullish, a 180 turn from few hours ago.

Except this guy (who has no followers but I like his insights):



The argument for mining cost driving price is valid, but I think it's most helpful in determining something like an "absolute" bottom, past which point BTC is unlikely to go no matter what. But there are many factors influencing when the market thinks it is a good time to buy. Another factor includes the size and number of open long and short positions, and for how much time those positions have been open. I don't consider these too much in my analysis, but they can help me to confirm what I am already thinking.
 

Brandson

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,219
I think there is something fishy with tether but I also think a lot of it is overblown and FUD because everything was crashing.

My position is Tether printed so much to keep up with demand and keep it at par with USD. Market crashed and everyone wanted to move from crypto to tether to avoid the volatility. I don't believe tether has 2 + billion in reserves, but I also don't think everyone is going to cash out of tether tomorrow.

Is it fishy that the owner of bitfinex owns tether, for sure. Is it fishy that they can just print tethers out of thin air sure. I just don't feel that those 2 things are going to be enough to wipe out crypto and BTC.

BTC is still going to drop IMO. I think we can see 6K over the weekend.

If it comes out that Bitfinex/Tether were in fact printing fake money to inflate the market, then that would be bad, and I could see another 50% correction from here. If they actually had the money, then that's way better, but I still think regulators will do some sort of enforcement action because the U.S. government typically does not appreciate anyone printing a USD equivalent. How the market responds to that enforcement action is hard to predict. It could be that the certainty of knowing what is happening will cause the market to pump, like at the end of the China exchange ban news, provided that the enforcement does not end up crippling the market. So I think you keep all this in mind, and always maintain your exit strategy, as I have said here before.

The concept of a crypto asset having a value fixed to the USD is good, but execution is very difficult. And whatever organization is ultimately setup to provide that function needs to be 100% independent of other market participants, including exchanges, and totally transparent at all times, not just when it suits them.
 

JackDT

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,124
I was just thinking that yesterday. Wouldn't the absolute bottom have to be somewhere around the cost it takes to mine it? Mainly because if the Miners aren't making money they are just going to stop outright and then the entire thing falls apart.

Mining difficulty gets easier with fewer miners. It's just arbitrary.
 

cryptoadam

Banned
Jan 2, 2018
400
If it comes out that Bitfinex/Tether were in fact printing fake money to inflate the market, then that would be bad, and I could see another 50% correction from here. If they actually had the money, then that's way better, but I still think regulators will do some sort of enforcement action because the U.S. government typically does not appreciate anyone printing a USD equivalent. How the market responds to that enforcement action is hard to predict. It could be that the certainty of knowing what is happening will cause the market to pump, like at the end of the China exchange ban news, provided that the enforcement does not end up crippling the market. So I think you keep all this in mind, and always maintain your exit strategy, as I have said here before.

The concept of a crypto asset having a value fixed to the USD is good, but execution is very difficult. And whatever organization is ultimately setup to provide that function needs to be 100% independent of other market participants, including exchanges, and totally transparent at all times, not just when it suits them.

Would just like to say Brandson even though I am new here I appreciate all your posts and information you share with everyone.

Just to pick your brain but do you see BTC being overtaken by any other coin? I think we could be heading into a new future where crypto's market cap can go back to 1 trillion or more, but it might not be being lead by BTC. Let BTC drop. outside of being a gateway into crypto which is being replaced now by things like ETH and LTC I don't see its value. Other coins are faster and better and cheaper. A huge drop might push it out of the mainstream mindspace and allow something else to emerge to lift the markets. BTC's volatility is probably not doing any other crypto's any favors and having something so unstable being a smaller % of total market cap would benefit the entire space IMO.
 

Brandson

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,219
Would just like to say Brandson even though I am new here I appreciate all your posts and information you share with everyone.

Just to pick your brain but do you see BTC being overtaken by any other coin? I think we could be heading into a new future where crypto's market cap can go back to 1 trillion or more, but it might not be being lead by BTC. Let BTC drop. outside of being a gateway into crypto which is being replaced now by things like ETH and LTC I don't see its value. Other coins are faster and better and cheaper. A huge drop might push it out of the mainstream mindspace and allow something else to emerge to lift the markets. BTC's volatility is probably not doing any other crypto's any favors and having something so unstable being a smaller % of total market cap would benefit the entire space IMO.

I hold 100% ETH so my expectation is that ETH exceeds BTC's market cap at some point. I don't have a timeframe in mind for that. I have that opinion because it's quite clear that pretty much every tech company, big bank, and even big pharma and others are all exploring what they can do with Ethereum. I can't see all that effort being spent without anything to show for it. Decentralized networks, like Ethereum, can provide for new types of services and can be used to make some existing processes more efficient. I think Ethereum is the one because of its lead over everyone else, and the widespread developer support and interest in the platform. I don't think Bitcoin is going away, but you don't hear big companies talking about it positively or committing development resources to it.

Others could also challenge Ethereum in the future, and I am keeping an open mind about that. But for now, Ethereum is the leader in this space in everything but market cap. Ethereum is the engine that drives this whole market, even if the market doesn't fully realize it yet.
 

Unguided

Member
Oct 28, 2017
266
Tether still hasn't come to "a head" though.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...itfinex-tether-said-to-get-subpoenaed-by-cftc

https://www.investopedia.com/news/tether-and-south-korea-move-bitcoin-prices/

No you weren't. This crash right now has absolutely nothing to do with tether.

Thanks for trying to gloat though when most of this board is losing a ton of money.
If they'd listened and pulled out they'd still have their money.
 

Deleted member 9100

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
3,076

But not because you were right. There hasn't been any crash due to tether. A crash due to tether could be forthcoming, but it certainly hasn't happened yet.

Crypto did tank over the past week but not due to a tether crash.

You'll be proved right or wrong when there is or is not a tether crash.