Deadline is hearing negotiations between Paramount and Skydance are expected to be extended by a few weeks.

[ContractHolder]

Skydance Still In Pole Position For Paramount As Two Hash Out Terms; Sony & Apollo Waiting In The Wings

David Ellison's Skydance remains in pole position to gain control of Paramount Global, with Sony and Apollo waiting in the wings.

deadline.com

Skydance and Paramount are deep into hashing out a complicated deal that would see the David Ellison's studio and its backers take control of the storied film and television company owned by Shari Redstone. The exclusive month-long negotiating period through May 3 is likely to be extended perhaps by a few weeks, Deadline hears, given the complexity of the transaction.

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[Wrexis]

It all hinges on the success of the Knuckles TV show tomorrow.

 

[mreddie]

Yep, looks like they will win the Mountain.

 

[davepoobond]

ew

 

[PanSexual_Peacock]

Shari just wants to get the hell out. Shareholders be damned.

Also, that valuation for Skydance is laughable

 

[davepoobond]

is there something stopping Sony/Apollo from coming around and making an offer to the new Skydance/Paramount and doing yet another merger?


idk why this deal is supposed to improve Paramount at all. It doesn't do much for them in the long run

 

[PanSexual_Peacock]

is there something stopping Sony/Apollo from coming around and making an offer to the new Skydance/Paramount and doing yet another merger?


idk why this deal is supposed to improve Paramount at all. It doesn't do much for them in the long run

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Ellison. He's been wanting to run a major studio himself for a while now.

The only significant change for Paramount in this deal is new leadership. Whether that's actually an improvement remains to be seen.

 

[gdt]

Odd.

 

[SilverX]

is there something stopping Sony/Apollo from coming around and making an offer to the new Skydance/Paramount and doing yet another merger?


idk why this deal is supposed to improve Paramount at all. It doesn't do much for them in the long run

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I wouldn't say the deal is done, Sony and Apollo have yet to make their bid as I understand it. Their proposal could be far better, but Deadline is saying they are planning to split the company which may not be seen as favorable.

 

[davepoobond]

I wouldn't say the deal is done, Sony and Apollo have yet to make their bid as I understand it. Their proposal could be far better, but Deadline is saying they are planning to split the company which may not be seen as favorable.

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right -- but if i recall Skydance is basically going to do the same thing, except just selling off the pieces they dont want to who knows who. At least with Sony/Apollo its run by the same people at the end of the day (to my understanding from the previous thread)

 

[maabus1999]

I wouldn't say the deal is done, Sony and Apollo have yet to make their bid as I understand it. Their proposal could be far better, but Deadline is saying they are planning to split the company which may not be seen as favorable.

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Sony also can't have more than 25% ownership of CBS Stations, which is probably another issue as well (and probably related to the split). The Skydance one may be significantly easier to close so is probably going to be preferred even if it is less money offered.

 

[SilverX]

right -- but if i recall Skydance is basically going to do the same thing, except just selling off the pieces they dont want to who knows who. At least with Sony/Apollo its run by the same people at the end of the day (to my understanding from the previous thread)

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I may have missed that since I was under the impression Skydance would keep them a public company where as Sony and Apollo would make them private and split the assets. I mean, Skydance could always end up selling pieces but I don't know if they made it known that is their intent with why they are acquiring Paramount. So I was expecting a mostly "samey" looking new company if they managed to buy them.

Thats really part of my lack of enthusiasm for Skydance, they just don't bring enough to Paramount to ensure that they wouldn't find themselves in a similar situation a few years down the line. Sony and Paramount combined would actually feel like a new major competitor in the film industry.

Sony also can't have more than 25% ownership of CBS Stations, which is probably another issue as well (and probably related to the split). The Skydance one may be significantly easier to close so is probably going to be preferred even if it is less money offered.

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Well we have yet to see the structure they are proposing so it may be more doable than it sounds. And beyond money, I would imagine that most shareholders would have faith that Sony could take the company in much better and needed new direction. As it is, Sony themselves were in a similar situation to Paramount at one point where they also hit "junk status" with their credit rating and they were able to pave a way to becoming a roaring success again. Not sure Skydance has the chops to do the same.

 

[CrichtonKicks]

is there something stopping Sony/Apollo from coming around and making an offer to the new Skydance/Paramount and doing yet another merger?


idk why this deal is supposed to improve Paramount at all. It doesn't do much for them in the long run

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Redstone controls 77% of the voting stock for Paramount and that transfers to Ellison in their deal. So Ellison is under no obligation to entertain other offers.

 

[ConfusingJazz]

is there something stopping Sony/Apollo from coming around and making an offer to the new Skydance/Paramount and doing yet another merger?

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I would imagine a faster approval by regulators.

 

[Saucycarpdog]

I may have missed that since I was under the impression Skydance would keep them a public company where as Sony and Apollo would make them private and split the assets. I mean, Skydance could always end up selling pieces but I don't know if they made it known that is their intent with why they are acquiring Paramount. So I was expecting a mostly "samey" looking new company if they managed to buy them.

Thats really part of my lack of enthusiasm for Skydance, they just don't bring enough to Paramount to ensure that they wouldn't find themselves in a similar situation a few years down the line. Sony and Paramount combined would actually feel like a new major competitor in the film industry.



Well we have yet to see the structure they are proposing so it may be more doable than it sounds. And beyond money, I would imagine that most shareholders would have faith that Sony could take the company in much better and needed new direction. As it is, Sony themselves were in a similar situation to Paramount at one point where they also hit "junk status" with their credit rating and they were able to pave a way to becoming a roaring success again. Not sure Skydance has the chops to do the same.

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I don't think Sony is the savior you're depicting it as lol. They're film division has made a boat load of mistakes themselves so I wouldn't have much faith in turning around Paramount films.

Regardless, a lot of the IP rights are locked up in other areas so Sony couldn't take full advantage of them.

 

[SilverX]

I don't think Sony is the savior you're depicting it as lol. They're film division has made a boat load of mistakes themselves so I wouldn't have much faith in turning around Paramount films.

Regardless, a lot of the IP rights are locked up in other areas so Sony couldn't take full advantage of them.

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So have Disney, so have WBD, and these mistakes have been just in recent years. There isn't any buyer that isn't still going to be prone to them. But Sony is a media company that has a lot to offer, especially compared to Skydance, just with what they'd be bringing with their big footing in TV and gaming. And they have actually come out of very rough spots and reshaped their business with meaningful success when Paramount, a company still reliant on the linear television business, needs that more than anything else. Also, assets can be reshuffled so we can't really say how the structure will look until we see what they are planning.

 

[maabus1999]

Even though they are somewhat horizontal, due to Sony already having a localized monopoly with Crunchyroll, any streaming media acquisition is going to get a big look at from regulators as well. Horizontal mergers can always be tough even when you aren't one of the top dogs.

Throw in the CBS issues, and it gets even worse. That said, Skydance has priority due to lock up periods, so they get the first shot at this, no matter what Sony and Apollo want to do.

 

[Bigkrev]

Yeah, the issue with any bid involving Sony is that it would probably get some real scrutiny from regulators.

10 Years ago we had a "Big 6" of studios- 20th Century Fox, Disney, Sony, Paramount, Universal, and Warner. With the merger of Fox and Disney, we now only have 5. And if Sony buys Paramount, we would be down to only 4. Sure, Sony might keep the name Paramount around, like how Disney has kept "20th Century" around, but it's now one less studio

We saw the Simon & Schuster and Penguin Random House merger blocked last year because the regulators thought it would "lessen competition", and you probably would see a fight here if one of the remaining big studios tried to buy one of the others.

 

[CrichtonKicks]

I'm anti-consolidation so I would prefer Skydance over Sony. Sony buying Paramount just means one less studio.

 

[RolandGunner]

Yeah, the issue with any bid involving Sony is that it would probably get some real scrutiny from regulators.

10 Years ago we had a "Big 6" of studios- 20th Century Fox, Disney, Sony, Paramount, Universal, and Warner. With the merger of Fox and Disney, we now only have 5. And if Sony buys Paramount, we would be down to only 4. Sure, Sony might keep the name Paramount around, like how Disney has kept "20th Century" around, but it's now one less studio

We saw the Simon & Schuster and Penguin Random House merger blocked last year because the regulators thought it would "lessen competition", and you probably would see a fight here if one of the remaining big studios tried to buy one of the others.

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But Amazon is ramping up film production through MGM so really a Paramount / Sony tie up just brings you back to five. And the real problem with the idea that consolidation is inherently bad is that two weak companies can be less competitive than one strong one. Senior Sony execs already talk about how challenging the entertainment business is because they're sub-scale compared to Netflix, Disney, or Comcast. Merging with Paramount would give them more ways to monetize their content, which should make Sony more aggressive.

 

[davepoobond]

But Amazon is ramping up film production through MGM so really a Paramount / Sony tie up just brings you back to five. And the real problem with the idea that consolidation is inherently bad is that two weak companies can be less competitive than one strong one. Senior Sony execs already talk about how challenging the entertainment business is because they're sub-scale compared to Netflix, Disney, or Comcast. Merging with Paramount would give them more ways to monetize their content, which should make Sony more aggressive.

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I agree with this generally. In this specific case i think it would mean more competition if Sony/paramount were merging their operations. Of course regulators should have their say, but with the limited scope I have, it sounds like what sort of needs to happen in today's environment.

I think the old or even contemporary Hollywood studio model won't survive much longer because of market forces and technology. It's pretty tumultuous, and they are competing against companies they never had to before. The only long term alternative is they go bankrupt and don't make anything anymore which is way worse.

 

[Saucycarpdog]

So have Disney, so have WBD, and these mistakes have been just in recent years. There isn't any buyer that isn't still going to be prone to them. But Sony is a media company that has a lot to offer, especially compared to Skydance, just with what they'd be bringing with their big footing in TV and gaming. And they have actually come out of very rough spots and reshaped their business with meaningful success when Paramount, a company still reliant on the linear television business, needs that more than anything else. Also, assets can be reshuffled so we can't really say how the structure will look until we see what they are planning.

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Except those studios make way more money and have way more successful franchises. Sony films on the other hand has been struggling these past few years apart from Spiderman, and much of it is due to their own mishandling of franchises.

But Amazon is ramping up film production through MGM so really a Paramount / Sony tie up just brings you back to five. And the real problem with the idea that consolidation is inherently bad is that two weak companies can be less competitive than one strong one. Senior Sony execs already talk about how challenging the entertainment business is because they're sub-scale compared to Netflix, Disney, or Comcast. Merging with Paramount would give them more ways to monetize their content, which should make Sony more aggressive.

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Sure but even if we take that argument, they're still gonna be reservations from regulators when it comes to things like CBS, as mentioned above. They might need to do some divesting to make a deal happen.

 

[ContractHolder]

I agree with this generally. In this specific case i think it would mean more competition if Sony/paramount were merging their operations. Of course regulators should have their say, but with the limited scope I have, it sounds like what sort of needs to happen in today's environment.

I think the old or even contemporary Hollywood studio model won't survive much longer because of market forces and technology. It's pretty tumultuous, and they are competing against companies they never had to before. The only long term alternative is they go bankrupt and don't make anything anymore which is way worse.

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That's honestly my take on this. I've already seen the alternative in the gaming industry where multiple studios are gone because they couldn't survive technological and new market demands. I'd prefer to not let that happen again in the entertainment industry. And as much as some of us say they're cool with going back to lower budgets and the old ways, the fact is that even here on this forum that's a small amount of users compared to the majority. That's not enough to stop the tides of change.

If Skydance can allow the same number of studios and get Paramount back to a place where they can still compete with the other majors, then great. If not, then they need to change in order to stick around in the new norm. If Sony can allow for that, it may have to happen.

Hopefully MGM can build up to become a major again, and we'll see A24 start to build up more like they were talking about, and we can get back to more parties again to make up for Fox dropping out. I'd add Lionsgate, but I honestly don't know how their future is going to go.

 

[davepoobond]

That's honestly my take on this. I've already seen the alternative in the gaming industry where multiple studios are gone because they couldn't survive technological and new market demands. I'd prefer to not let that happen again in the entertainment industry. And as much as some of us say they're cool with going back to lower budgets and the old ways, the fact is that even here on this forum that's a small amount of users compared to the majority. That's not enough to stop the tides of change.

If Skydance can allow the same number of studios and get Paramount back to a place where they can still compete with the other majors, then great. If not, then they need to change in order to stick around in the new norm. If Sony can allow for that, it may have to happen.

Hopefully MGM can build up to become a major again, and we'll see A24 start to build up more like they were talking about, and we can get back to more parties again to make up for Fox dropping out. I'd add Lionsgate, but I honestly don't know how their future is going to go.

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Yeah I am optimistic about MGM since it has Amazon behind it now, but it is going to take a while for them to be significant again.

Games industry is much different though since we have so many games that can be made by one or two people explode in popularity and then you have hundreds of mobile/pc games that get released with regularity that make no money to ridiculous money — so it feels like as many new gaming startups occur as fail. It probably will hit saturation point but it also leads to actually removing eyeballs form tv/movies also which is part of the "technology" part current Hollywood has to compete with indirectly.

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see what happens. I do like Paramount/CBS offerings generally so hopefully they stick around in a cohesive form

 

[ContractHolder]

I do like Paramount/CBS offerings generally so hopefully they stick around in a cohesive form

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I do as well, and I've been saying for years that if they can just figure out how to get everything to click just right, they could legit hold up against everyone else. So I hope whatever happens at the end of the day with Paramount's ownership, it gets them to a place where they can finally reach their full potential.

But we'll see what happens. I'm just hoping for the least amount of turbulence at the end of the day.

 

[Saucycarpdog]

I do as well, and I've been saying for years that if they can just figure out how to get everything to click just right, they could legit hold up against everyone else. So I hope whatever happens at the end of the day with Paramount's ownership, it gets them to a place where they can finally reach their full potential.

But we'll see what happens. I'm just hoping for the least amount of turbulence at the end of the day.

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I think they'd do a lot better if they cut Paramount+ honestly. They have a lot of good franchises and most of them are profitable (except apparently MI lol)

Trying to compete in the streaming wars seems to have been their downfall

 

[Tobor]

is there something stopping Sony/Apollo from coming around and making an offer to the new Skydance/Paramount and doing yet another merger?


idk why this deal is supposed to improve Paramount at all. It doesn't do much for them in the long run

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Yes. Shari can kill any deal. She can't be bypassed. So if her heart is set on Ellison, that's the way it goes.

 

[davepoobond]

Yes. Shari can kill any deal. She can't be bypassed. So if her heart is set on Ellison, that's the way it goes.

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well, in the new formation of the company, though? Is Shari still going to be majority owner like she is now, just giving operations to Skydance, essentially?

i thought she was getting out w/that deal

 

[Tobor]

well, in the new formation of the company, though? Is Shari still going to be majority owner like she is now, just giving operations to Skydance, essentially?

i thought she was getting out w/that deal

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My bad, misread your post. Yeah, once Shari sells to Ellison, he controls it. They could put language in the deal that would keep him from doing that, though.

I was under the impression he did want to sell the linear business, so Apollo would be in the running for that, I guess?

 

[ContractHolder]

I think they'd do a lot better if they cut Paramount+ honestly. They have a lot of good franchises and most of them are profitable (except apparently MI lol)

Trying to compete in the streaming wars seems to have been their downfall

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The thing is, even though I know it's very possible Paramount+ goes away soon, I'm not thrilled about that for a few reasons:
1. Just like everyone doesn't want only a handful of players in theatrical, we shouldn't want that for streaming either. More players means more projects that may not have the potential to get funded can get funded.
2. I honestly think Paramount had a library that, if handled properly, could hold up against Disney and Warners. If they were just able to figure out how to leverage a few more flagship franchises, and maybe find a way to make Showtime in the public mindset more of a must watch like HBO and FX, I honestly believe they could have held up alright as all of the players begin to reach the point where they make this work long term. To me, it's a shame that they're potentially not going to be able to do that.

 

[SilverX]

Except those studios make way more money and have way more successful franchises. Sony films on the other hand has been struggling these past few years apart from Spiderman, and much of it is due to their own mishandling of franchises.

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They have way bigger franchises out of the gate as well and yet somehow they too mishandle them. Hell Indiana Jones 5 wasn't even a year ago yet lol. You aren't really making a point here, just kind of highlighting that these mega conglomerates can pump out multiple big films per year of some of the biggest franchises far easier than companies like Sony and Paramount can individually. Its not hard to see why their film m divisions are in better shape, they are just far bigger and always will be. Nonetheless, Paramount's problems are far bigger than just their film IP portfolio and thats why there was investor excitement from Sony.

 

[Tobor]

If you aren't a fan of consolidation, you should want the Skydance deal. If Sony/Apollo get it, we would drop from 5 major film studios down to 4.

 

[Xando]

WSJ: Paramount Considers Removing CEO Bob Bakish as Turmoil Over Sale Talks Deepens

 

[Saucycarpdog]

The thing is, even though I know it's very possible Paramount+ goes away soon, I'm not thrilled about that for a few reasons:
1. Just like everyone doesn't want only a handful of players in theatrical, we shouldn't want that for streaming either. More players means more projects that may not have the potential to get funded can get funded.
2. I honestly think Paramount had a library that, if handled properly, could hold up against Disney and Warners. If they were just able to figure out how to leverage a few more flagship franchises, and maybe find a way to make Showtime in the public mindset more of a must watch like HBO and FX, I honestly believe they could have held up alright as all of the players begin to reach the point where they make this work long term. To me, it's a shame that they're potentially not going to be able to do that.

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I value competition in streaming as well but I'd rather Paramount actually survive as a studio than die or be absorbed in a merger due to Paramount+.

 

[ContractHolder]

WSJ: Paramount Considers Removing CEO Bob Bakish as Turmoil Over Sale Talks Deepens

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Oh shit

I value competition in streaming as well but I'd rather Paramount actually survive as a studio than die or be absorbed in a merger due to Paramount+.

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That I can understand.