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Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,923
1. Kingdom Hearts 3
2. Resident Evil 2
3. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe
4. Ace Combat 7
5. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate

My predictions for January.
 

Slam Tilt

Member
Jan 16, 2018
5,585
I feel really sheltered in that the only people I know who ever talk about any of the Kingdom Hearts games are on internet forums.
 

Sterok

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,087
Kingdom Hearts > NSMBUDX > Resident Evil is my guess. Kingdom Hearts should be opening big, and Mario has a lot more days on the market.
 

julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,867
What did you expect at this point ?

They did over 3.3 physical sales in December and I assume digital sales were extremely high for Smash. So it's possible it was just another 1 million in January which....alright, still pretty great.

there are 10.8 million switches in the us

anyway "over 5" could even mean 5,4 or 5,9 for what we know

Ah true. Classic Nintendo PR.

Worldwide its sold 12 million in 24 days. Thats absolutely incredible and unprecedented for any Nintendo game not named pokemon.

Less than I expected doesn't mean bad.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
They did over 3.3 physical sales in December and I assume digital sales were extremely high for Smash. So it's possible it was just another 1 million in January which....alright, still pretty great.



Ah true. Classic Nintendo PR.
Doing 1M in your second month when your first month was December is pretty darn great, I'd say. If that's a worldwide thing, and shipments were to be extrapolated, then Smash would've shipped another 3M just in January, with February and March still to come for the Q4 report, meaning it could result in a 5-6 million shipment that quarter, which is honestly too much to be reasonable.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
Has anyone seen this already?


So, that's 5M as of the end of January I guess, including digital (as NoA would know that).


Yup.

Someone has to leak physical sales for January.
We all deserve to know Nintendos digital share for Smash Bros.

It's nice, their PR aligns so perfectly why NPD tracking.
So the error margin is extremely slim.

Digital must be massive though right? >5M sell-through (retail + digital) as of Jan 31, 2019 at the latest.

20% digital share against 3,592,000 digital yields 4,490,000 for Dec 2018. That would mean >510,000 retail+digital for Jan 5 - 31, so same 80/20 split would mean >402,000 JAN 19 retail in the US with possibly a few days of tracking to go.


Pulling some old numbers from other boards (may be inaccurate or may have been adjusted by now, so take with a grain of salt), here's top 10 Jan Software from 07 - 10).

Jan 2007

1. 360 LOST PLANET: EXTREME CONDITION 329k
2. PS2 GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR 224k
3. 360 GEARS OF WAR 212k
4. WII WARIOWARE: SMOOTH MOVES 201k
5. WII LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS 189k
6. PS2 MADDEN NFL 07 156k
7. GCN LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS 144k
8. PS3 RESISTANCE: FALL OF MAN 144k
9. 360 TOM CLANCY'S RAINBOW SIX: VEGAS 135k
10. NDS NEW SUPER MARIO BROS 125k

Jan 2008

360 CALL OF DUTY 4: MODERN WARFARE ACTIVISION (CORP) NOV 2007 MATURE (M) 1 330.9K
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE NINTENDO OF AMERICA FEB 2007 EVERYONE (E) 2 298.1K
WII GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK W/ WIREACTIVISION (CORP) OCT 2007 TEEN (T) 3 239.6K
360 ROCK BAND SPECIAL ED BUNDLE MTV GAMES/ELECTRONIC ARTS NOV 2007 TEEN (T) 4 183.8K
360 GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK W/ WIREACTIVISION (CORP) OCT 2007 TEEN (T) 5 182.7K
WII SUPER MARIO GALAXY NINTENDO OF AMERICA NOV 2007 EVERYONE (E) 6 172K
360 BURNOUT PARADISE ELECTRONIC ARTS JAN 2008 EVERYONE 10+ (E10+) 7 144.1K
PS3 CALL OF DUTY 4: MODERN WARFARE ACTIVISION (CORP) NOV 2007 MATURE (M) 8 140K
NDS MARIO PARTY NINTENDO OF AMERICA NOV 2007 EVERYONE (E) 9 138.5K
NDS MARIO AND SONIC: OLYMPIC GAMES SEGA OF AMERICA JAN 2008 EVERYONE (E) 10 133K

Jan 2009

WII FIT (WII) 777K
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE (WII) 415K
MARIO KART W/WHEEL (WII) 292K
LEFT 4 DEAD (360) 243K
CALL OF DUTY: WORLD AT WAR* (360) 235K
SKATE 2 (360) 199K
GUITAR HERO WORLD TOUR* (WII) 155K
NEW SUPER MARIO BROS (DS) 135K
MARIO KART DS (DS )132K
LORD OF THE RINGS: CONQUEST (360) 113K


Jan 2010

NEW SUPER MARIO BROS. WII WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Nov-09 656.7K
MASS EFFECT 2* 360 ELECTRONIC ARTS Jan-10 572.1K
WII FIT PLUS W/ BALANCE BOARD* WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Oct-09 555.7K
CALL OF DUTY: MODERN WARFARE 2* 360 ACTIVISION BLIZZARD Nov-09 326.7K
MARIO KART W/ WHEEL WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Apr-08 310.9K
SPORTS RESORT W/ WII MOTION PLUS* WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Jul-09 297.6K
CALL OF DUTY: MODERN WARFARE 2* PS3 ACTIVISION BLIZZARD Nov-09 259.0K
ARMY OF TWO: THE 40TH DAY 360 ELECTRONIC ARTS Jan-10 246.5K
JUST DANCE WII UBISOFT Nov-09 191.9K
DARKSIDERS 360 THQ Jan-10 171.2k
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
Doing 1M in your second month when your first month was December is pretty darn great, I'd say. If that's a worldwide thing, and shipments were to be extrapolated, then Smash would've shipped another 3M just in January, with February and March still to come for the Q4 report, meaning it could result in a 5-6 million shipment that quarter, which is honestly too much to be reasonable.

Just dug up numbers for NSMB Wii, launched Nov 11, 2009 (NPD and Nintendo IR). I know we looked at that comp for Japan. It's not perfect, but closest comparison I can think of (1st Party / Hype / Holiday / Console) and its Q3 sales in the US are similar to Smash's, albiet with a few extra weeks.

Nintendo

FY 09 Q3: 10,550,000
FY 09 Q4: 4,150,000
NPD

Disclaimer as always - may be inaccurate or may have been adjusted by now, so take with a grain of salt

Nov 09: 1,390,000
Dec 09: 2,820,000

Jan 10: 656,700
Feb 10: 555,600
Mar 10: 457,400

MC had Japan at 2,355,186 for 4 weeks of Dec and 409,565 for 4 weeks of Jan. US DEC figure of 3,592,000 includes NY week which falls in the second 4 weeks for Japan and of course, Jan hold would be stronger in Japan due to NY week relative to US. But even then, ~85% US drop would be ~539,000 retail, and if the digital share continues at assumed 20%, that's ~674,000, which is in line with NSMBWii.

That said, based on Chris's post earlier in the MC thread, it looks like digital % dropped significantly in Japan in Jan (was the Nov Smash bundle available in Japan as well?). All speculation of course.
 

Nocturnal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,321
So does Kingdom Hearts and Resident Evil have enough appeal to come out on top of Smash in January? I guess RE doesn't have much of a chance but KH3 probably does