Status
Not open for further replies.

Mona

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
26,151
carte
 

PeskyToaster

Member
Oct 27, 2017
15,336
Michigan Romp Shows Biden Could Rebuild Democrats' 'Blue Wall' vs. Trump

Great politico article about how last night's results are very very good for Biden in Michigan

The election map is quite promising for November imo, especially if Biden continues to perform well in states like Michigan. 2016 was decided by a few key areas in a few key states. Exactly the places Biden is doing well. I really think at this point that if the Democrats ran nearly anybody else in 2016, Trump wouldn't be President. On the flip side I don't think Sanders would've beaten Trump either because as we're seeing now, he doesn't play well in these states either. He just wasn't Clinton.

From that article:

Two things happened on Tuesday in Michigan. First, Democratic turnout exploded. Second, Biden performed far better with key demographic groups than Clinton did four years ago. If either one of those things happen in November, Trump will have a difficult time winning the state again. If both things happen, the president can kiss Michigan's 16 electoral votes goodbye—and with them, more than likely, the electoral votes of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

There goes the White House.

Far-fetched? Hardly. Beating Trump in November does not require an electoral juggernaut. This is because Trump himself, despite his frequent boasts to the contrary, is no electoral juggernaut. The president won the Electoral College in 2016 by a whisker. He carried three states—Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania—by a combined 77,744 votes. Notably, in those states, Clinton won roughly 600,000 fewer votes than Barack Obama did in 2012. The reason: a failure to mobilize black voters, and dismal performances among both affluent suburbanites and working-class whites.

According to that article, 10,000 more Democrats voted yesterday than in 2016 in one small county alone. That's what is going to push Trump right out of office. I love to see the high turnout too. I like Sanders for the ideas and change he brings so that bummed me out but there's a lot to be positive about yesterday as well. People are getting more active in politics which is awesome. 2018 had the highest turnout of any midterm since 1914 and these primary numbers are promising. Let's keep that momentum up because a repeat of 2018 with the Presidency as well would be amazing.
 

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
Watching Biden's speech...it was impressive. Efforts to paint him as a senile old man are going to backfire IMO. Trump is setting the expectations so low Biden will easily surpass them.
 

darkside

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,474


There is absolutely no reason there should be any caucuses in 2024. And there shouldn't be limited primaries either. Voter suppression is a thing the other party does, Democrats shouldn't be doing it within their own party.
 

Zombegoast

Member
Oct 30, 2017
14,391
he was pulling support from the person least likely to pass a substantially high wealth tax and Bernie was relying on other moderates to stay in so he could win with a plurality. Hard to see how Bloomberg made any difference to the way things turned out.

He was polling above the 15% threshold in several states. He dropped out and endorsed Biden. the same with other candidates.
 

peppersky

Banned
Mar 9, 2018
1,174

Arkeband

Banned
Nov 8, 2017
7,663
Yeah Twitter is rough. The age gap this year is making it real nasty but I honestly find it disheartening how young people can say the kind of shit they say about older people. Our votes don't count any more than their votes - and they're doing a better job showing up to the polls

If the olds want the planet to turn into a lump of charcoal when they've only got a handful of years left, who are us youngs to say they aren't entitled to that right?
Every Opinion Is Equally Valid!
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
The election map is quite promising for November imo, especially if Biden continues to perform well in states like Michigan. 2016 was decided by a few key areas in a few key states. Exactly the places Biden is doing well. I really think at this point that if the Democrats ran nearly anybody else in 2016, Trump wouldn't be President. On the flip side I don't think Sanders would've beaten Trump either because as we're seeing now, he doesn't play well in these states either. He just wasn't Clinton.

From that article:



According to that article, 10,000 more Democrats voted yesterday than in 2016 in one small county alone. That's what is going to push Trump right out of office. I love to see the high turnout too. I like Sanders for the ideas and change he brings so that bummed me out but there's a lot to be positive about yesterday as well. People are getting more active in politics which is awesome. 2018 had the highest turnout of any midterm since 1914 and these primary numbers are promising. Let's keep that momentum up because a repeat of 2018 with the Presidency as well would be amazing.
As long as Biden is as good as he was in his speech last night, he'll cruise to victory this year. Trump's done nothing to expand his base, third party voting is going to drop like a rock and turnout is looking likely to tick up overall. We've seen in national polling that voter engagement is already higher than it was in November 2016, right before the election.

Frankly I'm tempted to say it'll be an easy 52-46 win all the way through to November with the polls telling a very consistent story all the while, though people will be understandably concerned as the consequences of Biden somehow losing are too dire. He could very easily blow it but I feel like the general naysaying over Biden's chances are pretty emotionally charged right now, turnout's ramping up pretty much everywhere and it seems to be benefiting him almost exclusively (in contrast to the common "Bernie is the only one who can turn out the voters we need" talking points), and whatever you can say about his speaking/debate ability, the idea that Trump will beat him is laughable.



There is absolutely no reason there should be any caucuses in 2024. And there shouldn't be limited primaries either. Voter suppression is a thing the other party does, Democrats shouldn't be doing it within their own party.

The problem is that caucues are party-run whereas primaries are state-run. In order to switch from a full caucus state to a full primary state, the state would need to get involved, which requires funding for the election, etc. Minnesota's legislature had to pass a bill in 2016 that established presidential primaries from 2020 onward.

It's very possible North Dakota Democrats couldn't get any support from the state government in moving away from caucuses, so they had to cobble together this half-assed solution. I agree though that caucuses need to go, starting with Iowa (who, as far as I can tell, only sticks with caucuses because New Hampshire has a law that makes them the first primary - Iowa being a caucus allows them to go first, though I think it's safe to say they've forfeited that privilege after the clusterfuck this year).

I honestly don't care about open vs. closed registration, though I will admit it's very nice in Minnesota just being able to request the party ballot with no strings attached. In non-presidential primaries they're even printed on the same ballot, you just can only fill out one side.
 

Zelas

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,020
The CBS exit poll data for Michigan showed that 57% of voters supported "Replacing All Private Health Insurance with a Government Plan" versus 39% that opposed. The data communicates a clear enthusiasm across all the states that have voted in the primary thus far since that exact question has been asked every time and the majority has always supported it.
The numbers you're quoting are lower but basically the same as those found in the two articles I posted. Thinking the conversation ends there is the problem.
 

Anoregon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,382
The election map is quite promising for November imo, especially if Biden continues to perform well in states like Michigan. 2016 was decided by a few key areas in a few key states. Exactly the places Biden is doing well. I really think at this point that if the Democrats ran nearly anybody else in 2016, Trump wouldn't be President. On the flip side I don't think Sanders would've beaten Trump either because as we're seeing now, he doesn't play well in these states either. He just wasn't Clinton.

From that article:



According to that article, 10,000 more Democrats voted yesterday than in 2016 in one small county alone. That's what is going to push Trump right out of office. I love to see the high turnout too. I like Sanders for the ideas and change he brings so that bummed me out but there's a lot to be positive about yesterday as well. People are getting more active in politics which is awesome. 2018 had the highest turnout of any midterm since 1914 and these primary numbers are promising. Let's keep that momentum up because a repeat of 2018 with the Presidency as well would be amazing.

I do enjoy these takes. Biden crushing it in Michigan yesterday is a very good sign for November. I'd prefer most of the other nominees be president if it was up to me, but I'd also much rather Biden have a clean, decisive win in March than things staying close and leading to an incredibly fractious convention. The sooner democrats can stop fighting each other and focus on the real threat, the better.



Holy shit at Florida vs Trump difference.
 

GoldenEye 007

Roll Tide, Y'all!
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,835
Texas
"just sell out lol"

imagine actually going out to vote and voting for joe "you're full of shit, shush woman" biden
Welp, that's Bernie's failure. I voted for him. But I guess he didn't learn too much from 2016 unfortunately. No built relationships in the south, among black voters, and his Latino outreach was not enough to overcome losses elsewhere. He also lost various white voters from 2016. And of course he failed to deliver the promised youth vote. That's squarely on him. If you fail on all those fronts, then that's not anyone else's fault but his and his campaign's.
 

darkside

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,474
If the olds want the planet to turn into a lump of charcoal when they've only got a handful of years left, who are us youngs to say they aren't entitled to that right?
Every Opinion Is Equally Valid!

Say whatever you want to say. You're right that every opinion is equally valid in that everyone (well not technically) in this country gets 1 vote and should use it as they please. I just don't think the dismissive talk and insulting entire blocs of people because they didn't vote for your candidate is very productive or conducive to actually getting change implemented.



Bernie vs Trump in a general in FL would be a complete slaughter. Doesn't look like we're going to see it.
 

Chaos Legion

The Wise Ones
Member
Oct 30, 2017
17,032
If the olds want the planet to turn into a lump of charcoal when they've only got a handful of years left, who are us youngs to say they aren't entitled to that right?
Every Opinion Is Equally Valid!
Well turnout in the polls and you can override their decision. Otherwise, their vote matters more, because they literally, vote.
 

hidys

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
1,799


There is absolutely no reason there should be any caucuses in 2024. And there shouldn't be limited primaries either. Voter suppression is a thing the other party does, Democrats shouldn't be doing it within their own party.

I doubt the Democrats are doing this deliberately. The overwhelming evidence from this election and even 2016 is that voter suppression is a terrific boon for Bernie Sanders. It's probably why he won the state.
 

Psamtik

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,001
Biden's going to win decisively in November, and I don't know who's going to be more heartbroken over it: Trump supporters or Rose Twitter.

I know, I know - grief is a process.
 

Arkeband

Banned
Nov 8, 2017
7,663
Well turnout in the polls and you can override their decision. Otherwise, their vote matters more, because they literally, vote.

I did vote, and this affects everyone on the planet, so the pedantic tut-tutting of everyone's freedom to criticize one voting bloc's collective Human Race Suicide Pact is silly. People should be protesting loudly and angrily so that you're not drinking lead-contaminated water or spillage from a future Biden oil pipeline.
 

darkside

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,474
Bernie please drop out already...

I don't think he should drop out. Theres no path left for him going forward but let them debate. They're going to have to unite the party and I think just ending it now isn't the best way to do it. And if Bernie just keeps racking up more losses across the map maybe some folks will finally change their mind on the electability argument Bernie is still trotting out there.

I did vote, and this affects everyone on the planet, so the pedantic tut-tutting of everyone's freedom to criticize one voting bloc's collective Human Race Suicide Pact is silly. People should be protesting loudly and angrily so that you're not drinking lead-contaminated water or spillage from a future Biden oil pipeline.

Actual protests are productive and we need more of them. Bullying people on social media isn't.
 

airbagged_

Member
Jan 21, 2019
5,722
Charleston, SC
Repost from last night for the morning people:

FOR EVERYONE UPSET ABOUT BERNIE


It's okay to be upset. Be frustrated and angry. Get that anger out tonight, and then channel it into something better tomorrow. You're angry because you noticed something was deeply wrong with America, and the rest of the world, and you feel like you came this close to potentially solving it, and fell short. That's okay. Now it's time to get back out there.

Bernie Sanders didn't invent socialism. He awoke millions of people to the horrible truth about the world, but he's just one man following in the footsteps of those who came before him. This is a collective effort, one in which the downtrodden across America and the rest of the world will need to unite and work together. Bernie woke millions of us up, and we're not going back to sleep. Or at least, I'm not. Are you?

Get angry tonight, and then get active tomorrow. Here are some things to consider doing:

1. Find other like-minded people in your local area and start organizing. People you met through the Sanders campaign, your local DSA, etc. Get to know your local community. Figure out what issues you can start working on today at the local level.

2. Support the efforts of unions and other organized labor in your area, when possible.

3. Promote and run candidates for local office. Maybe even run yourself! America has a disease that infects it to the root, and so we need to start at the root, which is not the White House. When your local community comes to view its socialist legislators as good, helpful people, they will spread the word. If you choose to run for a higher office than local government, you'll probably be forced into running as a Democrat. That's fine. We will co-opt them from within. It's already starting, in Congressional districts around the country.

4. Educate yourself on history. Read books about socialism, Communism, Marxism, anarchism, etc. Read theory from older time periods, and the thoughts of modern scholars and diverse thinkers (i.e. not just white dudes). The Socialism OT here on ERA has a lot of resources. The education system and media in your country have brainwashed you and lied to you for your entire life. You need to start over from scratch.

5. Promote your values. Unlike the empty suits in Washington, we have a system of values that guides our principles and our political goals. Inform your friends, family, coworkers, anyone that might listen. Make it clear that your beliefs are based on what is good and just, not that you want free weed or whatever stereotype they have about socialists.

This fight is not over. It's not even close to over. This fight has been going on for a very long time, since long before any of us were born. It wasn't going to end with this election even if Bernie Sanders won. Get mad, then get active.

Your livelihood and your future have been stolen from you. Go out and do something productive about it.

Boot Boyz put out a shirt yesterday that raised $13k in under an hour and touches on some of these points in their description

boot-boyz.biz

Bernie

Please allow 7 working days to process before shipping Garment Dyed - Ivory Short Sleeve - 100% Combed Ring Spun CottonHand-printed in our studio in NYC - Priced at production-cost ✨❌Bernie Tee Fundraiser Complete✨❌ Y'all raised 14K directly to Bernie !!!!!!!! 👢✨🔥 You must email us...
 

hidys

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
1,799
Give him a chance? lol
He deserves to debate Biden one on one. I understand why you want this to end but Sanders has earned that.

I will say there is an easy way to end the Primary. Once Biden has racked up enough states Obama could swoop in and endorse. I doubt Bernie will go all the way until June.
 

Aurica

音楽オタク - Comics Council 2020
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
23,655
A mountain in the US
Aug 12, 2019
5,159
The numbers you're quoting are lower but basically the same as those found in the two articles I posted. Thinking the conversation ends there is the problem.

If the majority of the party supports something that is increasingly popular beyond the party, would save 30 to 60 thousand lives a year, and would generally result in the US saving money in addition to catching up with the rest of the developed Western world... why should the conversation not end there? If we get a Senate majority and House majority, that's Democratic control, so we could potentially enact M4A because the majority of the party already supports it.

Bernie please drop out already...

He needs to stay in til the debate. Biden has to show us the progressive wing that he can at least do that without issue and its a good test for the primary, nor is the delegate difference absolutely insurmountable yet so its part of the process.
 

Kusagari

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,879
I'm guessing Bernie does well with the non-Castro/Maduro Hispanic vote.

Yeah, this confirms a theory I had that the Latino groups most opposed to Bernie in FL aren't really voting in the primary to begin with. They're probably I's or R's.

Bernie's probably doing well with FL Puerto Ricans who would make up a larger chunk of the primary electorate.
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
Biden's going to win decisively in November, and I don't know who's going to be more heartbroken over it: Trump supporters or Rose Twitter.

I know, I know - grief is a process.
I feel like there are a number of people on my social media feeds who just need Biden to lose in November to confirm their priors. The "Bernie would have won!" takes for another four years are going to be insufferable if Biden does lose (though obviously, would pale in comparison to the damage done by Trump, which would actually be harmful versus just annoying Internet nonsense).

It's still very possible that Biden does blow it, but he's already shaping up to be a much more resilient candidate than Hillary. Not to say her campaign didn't flub or that she was flawless, but sexism and the decades-long smear campaign absolutely did a number on her electability. Summing it up as "Clinton was an establishment centrist and lost, Biden's an establishment centrist and will lose" is just confirmation bias, and Biden's impressive showing in Michigan should demonstrate that.
 

SolarPowered

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,215
I'm guessing Bernie does well with the non-Castro/Maduro Hispanic vote.
We really need to reform how we do primaries. Almost half the US states will probably not get to vote at all. Millions of us up in New York won't get to have a say and some of us have been waiting almost five years to do so. Hispanics up here would have shown some real solidarity.

damn shame
 
Aug 12, 2019
5,159
We really need to reform how we do primaries. Almost half the US states will probably not get to vote at all. Millions of us up in New York won't get to have a say and some of us have been waiting almost five years to do so. Hispanics up here would have shown some real solidarity.

damn shame

Is there any justification for not just treating primaries like the general at this point? Just have them all be on one day so we cut this whole process down and candidates have to genuinely win and lose outright instead of having to rely on momentum and narratives across multiple weeks of wildly different states voting and shaping the narrative? You know, as opposed to Iowa of all places getting an enormous weight (it didn't happen this time, but in any other cycle it would have).
 

Geg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,648
t's very possible North Dakota Democrats couldn't get any support from the state government in moving away from caucuses, so they had to cobble together this half-assed solution. I agree though that caucuses need to go, starting with Iowa (who, as far as I can tell, only sticks with caucuses because New Hampshire has a law that makes them the first primary - Iowa being a caucus allows them to go first, though I think it's safe to say they've forfeited that privilege after the clusterfuck this year).
The fact that New Hampshire has a state law that makes them the first primary is so bizarre to me. Like, how is that enforceable or binding to other states? What's to stop another state from passing a similar law and being like nuh-uh we're first now
 

Kangi

Profile Styler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,971
Bernie being kept nonviable in MS? How do you manage to do WORSE there four years later? Disregarding him going up to bat for white racists in the state. ...Actually, not disregarding that. Why on God's green earth would you do that.

I'm so tired
 
Status
Not open for further replies.