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🤞538 says relax, it's not really tightening:
We Have A Lot Of New Polls, But There’s Little Sign Of The Presidential Race Tightening
After a surprisingly sluggish weekend for polling, the floodgates have opened, with a mix of high-quality polls, low-quality polls and pretty much everything in…fivethirtyeight.com
Wow, I feel like if I was Perdue I would have just walked out after that speech, like what can you even say at that point that wouldn't just make things worse?
Most of the battlegrounds will probably be called on Election Day or shortly after. If Biden wins some combination of Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Texas, we won't need to wait on the PA/MI/WI ballots to be all counted before we know who has won.
So Pennsylvania just went Trump with the way they're counting mail in ballots. North Carolina or Florida maybe?
Haha just kidding, that's the ball game folks.
Haha just kidding, that's the ball game folks.
If Texas flips you'll know most likely on Election night. We have some of the worst vote by mail restrictions in the country. If Texas flips I don't think Trump has a path.
One county that Trump won handily in 2016 announced that they're not counting absentee or mail in ballots until November 4th
It's pretty straight forward. If counties are not going to count any mail in ballots until the day after election day and Trump is going to basically try to get every court he can to say they can't count past election day for whatever asinine reasons, then the entirety of the PA vote in these counties would be election day totals and nothing else at that point. It's completely asinine and nonsensical, but it makes sense (and even if he doesn't get it outright overturned, he gets to claim victory on election night by a huge margin and complain of voter fraud the next day when those ballots come in). It's the easiest and most direct route to stealing Pennsylvania ever. And I wouldn't be surprised to see other counties adopt this too possibly outside of PA.
I've usually been pretty optimistic this cycle, but this seems to be the play I think they'll go for. Now, Biden could potentially offset it with big wins elsewhere, but we don't know which states might choose a similar scenario. I mean these counties in Pennsylvania are literally allowed to start counting mail in and absentee ballots on election day at 7:00 AM, but they're choosing not to until 9:00 AM on November 4th instead. The three counties currently committed to this are Cumberland County (253,000 people and a Republican leaning area Tom Wolf won in 2018), Erie County (269,000 people that is usually on the line of going Dem and generally did before Trump), and Franklin County (155,000 people which is just a Republican county up and down).
Cumberland County to count mail-in ballots day after Election Day
Mail-in ballots are the first received and last to be counted in Cumberland County this election year.
www.abc27.com
So, yeah, this is pretty much the way I see Trump winning Pennsylvania now via suppression tactics. No matter how right everyone could be in casting a ballot well before hand and making sure all their information and filling out the forms was correct, if Republicans just refuse to start counting absentee until the day after, it blows a whole in the whole system and opens up so many opportunities for the GOP to engage in voter suppression.
Lol well if this happens then seems like November 3rd is the last day of the USA.It's pretty straight forward. If counties are not going to count any mail in ballots until the day after election day and Trump is going to basically try to get every court he can to say they can't count past election day for whatever asinine reasons, then the entirety of the PA vote in these counties would be election day totals and nothing else at that point. It's completely asinine and nonsensical, but it makes sense (and even if he doesn't get it outright overturned, he gets to claim victory on election night by a huge margin and complain of voter fraud the next day when those ballots come in). It's the easiest and most direct route to stealing Pennsylvania ever. And I wouldn't be surprised to see other counties adopt this too possibly outside of PA.
I've usually been pretty optimistic this cycle, but this seems to be the play I think they'll go for. Now, Biden could potentially offset it with big wins elsewhere, but we don't know which states might choose a similar scenario. I mean these counties in Pennsylvania are literally allowed to start counting mail in and absentee ballots on election day at 7:00 AM, but they're choosing not to until 9:00 AM on November 4th instead. The three counties currently committed to this are Cumberland County (253,000 people and a Republican leaning area Tom Wolf won in 2018), Erie County (269,000 people that is usually on the line of going Dem and generally did before Trump), and Franklin County (155,000 people which is just a Republican county up and down).
Cumberland County to count mail-in ballots day after Election Day
Mail-in ballots are the first received and last to be counted in Cumberland County this election year.
So, yeah, this is pretty much the way I see Trump winning Pennsylvania now via suppression tactics. No matter how right everyone could be in casting a ballot well before hand and making sure all their information and filling out the forms was correct, if Republicans just refuse to start counting absentee until the day after, it blows a whole in the whole system and opens up so many opportunities for the GOP to engage in voter suppression.
They won't succeed in stealing votes from being counted. The public outrage in PA, esp in the midst of all their other shit right now, would lead to absolute chaos.
I'm remaining confident.
I'm remaining confident.
Depends, Dems took Florida in 2000 lying down more or less, I wouldn't be surprised if similar stuff happens if it's just Pennsylvania being rat fucked.
This ain't 2000 anymore. In 2020, the country will burn if they do it. Picture that week in Minnesota after the Floyd murder, but nationwide, non stop.
There is no legal basis to stop counting votes that were cast before election day. Literally none. They may challenge some ballots to be thrown out due to rules, both parties do that regardless of when they are counted. This is also how the hanging chad stuff happened in 2000.It's pretty straight forward. If counties are not going to count any mail in ballots until the day after election day and Trump is going to basically try to get every court he can to say they can't count past election day for whatever asinine reasons, then the entirety of the PA vote in these counties would be election day totals and nothing else at that point. It's completely asinine and nonsensical, but it makes sense (and even if he doesn't get it outright overturned, he gets to claim victory on election night by a huge margin and complain of voter fraud the next day when those ballots come in). It's the easiest and most direct route to stealing Pennsylvania ever. And I wouldn't be surprised to see other counties adopt this too possibly outside of PA.
I've usually been pretty optimistic this cycle, but this seems to be the play I think they'll go for. Now, Biden could potentially offset it with big wins elsewhere, but we don't know which states might choose a similar scenario. I mean these counties in Pennsylvania are literally allowed to start counting mail in and absentee ballots on election day at 7:00 AM, but they're choosing not to until 9:00 AM on November 4th instead. The three counties currently committed to this are Cumberland County (253,000 people and a Republican leaning area Tom Wolf won in 2018), Erie County (269,000 people that is usually on the line of going Dem and generally did before Trump), and Franklin County (155,000 people which is just a Republican county up and down).
Cumberland County to count mail-in ballots day after Election Day
Mail-in ballots are the first received and last to be counted in Cumberland County this election year.
So, yeah, this is pretty much the way I see Trump winning Pennsylvania now via suppression tactics. No matter how right everyone could be in casting a ballot well before hand and making sure all their information and filling out the forms was correct, if Republicans just refuse to start counting absentee until the day after, it blows a whole in the whole system and opens up so many opportunities for the GOP to engage in voter suppression.
2000 they stopped a recount, but that was multiple weeks after election day.
Based on our strong PA victory in 2018 and current polling, as well as the very thin margin Trump won PA by in 2016... like seriously, they have a major, major uphill battle rigging the vote. And they're under enormous public pressure.
45k-50k mail-in ballots will be counted the next day. give biden an insane margin like 40 points. that's 20k votes. the state went for trump by 50k votes. it's not going to majorly influence results in a state that's showing a 5 point lead for biden in aggregate polling.
Are we going to start pretending that this incarnation of the Republican party plays by the rules lol? No basis has generally meant "Oh, WE haven't had the chance to do it YET for the current generation of Republicans" and Dems have a bad tendency to roll on those situations.
enough doomering, here's some basic decency for your evening
Please compare and contrast with Trump dumping on his own party's Senators right in their face while they are still alive.
Please compare and contrast with Trump dumping on his own party's Senators right in their face while they are still alive.
The electors in PA can tell the courts to eat a dick and vote the way they think it should have went, and there's nothing the courts can do about it.It's pretty straight forward. If counties are not going to count any mail in ballots until the day after election day and Trump is going to basically try to get every court he can to say they can't count past election day for whatever asinine reasons, then the entirety of the PA vote in these counties would be election day totals and nothing else at that point. It's completely asinine and nonsensical, but it makes sense (and even if he doesn't get it outright overturned, he gets to claim victory on election night by a huge margin and complain of voter fraud the next day when those ballots come in). It's the easiest and most direct route to stealing Pennsylvania ever. And I wouldn't be surprised to see other counties adopt this too possibly outside of PA.
I've usually been pretty optimistic this cycle, but this seems to be the play I think they'll go for. Now, Biden could potentially offset it with big wins elsewhere, but we don't know which states might choose a similar scenario. I mean these counties in Pennsylvania are literally allowed to start counting mail in and absentee ballots on election day at 7:00 AM, but they're choosing not to until 9:00 AM on November 4th instead. The three counties currently committed to this are Cumberland County (253,000 people and a Republican leaning area Tom Wolf won in 2018), Erie County (269,000 people that is usually on the line of going Dem and generally did before Trump), and Franklin County (155,000 people which is just a Republican county up and down).
Cumberland County to count mail-in ballots day after Election Day
Mail-in ballots are the first received and last to be counted in Cumberland County this election year.
So, yeah, this is pretty much the way I see Trump winning Pennsylvania now via suppression tactics. No matter how right everyone could be in casting a ballot well before hand and making sure all their information and filling out the forms was correct, if Republicans just refuse to start counting absentee until the day after, it blows a whole in the whole system and opens up so many opportunities for the GOP to engage in voter suppression.
If they were to trash a bunch of votes based on when they were received they would be throwing away several Republican votes too. Even though Democrats have been voting early by larger numbers in a lot of places there's plenty of Republicans and 3rd party/independents that vote by mail as well.It's pretty straight forward. If counties are not going to count any mail in ballots until the day after election day and Trump is going to basically try to get every court he can to say they can't count past election day for whatever asinine reasons, then the entirety of the PA vote in these counties would be election day totals and nothing else at that point. It's completely asinine and nonsensical, but it makes sense (and even if he doesn't get it outright overturned, he gets to claim victory on election night by a huge margin and complain of voter fraud the next day when those ballots come in). It's the easiest and most direct route to stealing Pennsylvania ever. And I wouldn't be surprised to see other counties adopt this too possibly outside of PA.
I've usually been pretty optimistic this cycle, but this seems to be the play I think they'll go for. Now, Biden could potentially offset it with big wins elsewhere, but we don't know which states might choose a similar scenario. I mean these counties in Pennsylvania are literally allowed to start counting mail in and absentee ballots on election day at 7:00 AM, but they're choosing not to until 9:00 AM on November 4th instead. The three counties currently committed to this are Cumberland County (253,000 people and a Republican leaning area Tom Wolf won in 2018), Erie County (269,000 people that is usually on the line of going Dem and generally did before Trump), and Franklin County (155,000 people which is just a Republican county up and down).
Cumberland County to count mail-in ballots day after Election Day
Mail-in ballots are the first received and last to be counted in Cumberland County this election year.
So, yeah, this is pretty much the way I see Trump winning Pennsylvania now via suppression tactics. No matter how right everyone could be in casting a ballot well before hand and making sure all their information and filling out the forms was correct, if Republicans just refuse to start counting absentee until the day after, it blows a whole in the whole system and opens up so many opportunities for the GOP to engage in voter suppression.
It doesn't matter if Trump declares victory on election night as long as Biden doesn't concede which he definitely wont
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For what it's worth, they're a +0.7 Dem bias pollster. Take that 14 down to a 13 and you're probably looking at the high end.
Jon Ossoff is awesome. Hope he manages to pull off a win.
The PA Governor and AG, and the state board will be the ones ensuring that everything runs smoothly. No matter what Trump thinks you can't claim victory if the votes are counted.
That said it's astonishing that we even have to worry about this sort of shit in 2020, these counties clearly have the time to count some of the mail votes on the day. It might be worthwhile the state looking into getting more polling workers into these counties.
True, but if Biden loses Pennsylvania, it's more likely to be because of cheating than legitimately fewer votes. Particularly late ballots, perhaps deliberately late. So it wouldn't actually indicate a demographics shift / polling discrepancy that would affect similar states.
So he could "lose" PA and still win comfortably in similar states like Wisconsin and Michigan.
76.5 hit
What do you know, we hit 76.5 million.
5 million more since the thread title was updated this morning.
5 million more since the thread title was updated this morning.
Does anyone know why Trump odds to win are increasing (if you bet on the election).
He has gone from +180 to win down to +160.
To win Florida he has gone from -110 to -150.
People really betting on Trump the last few days or did I miss something that would indicate the race is tightening.
He has gone from +180 to win down to +160.
To win Florida he has gone from -110 to -150.
People really betting on Trump the last few days or did I miss something that would indicate the race is tightening.
No reputable news reporting agency will call that PA county on the night of the election because they will be fully aware of the mail-in ballot shenanigans. I wouldn't sweat it too hard.
Betting lines exist to create as much betting action as possible. Nothing more really.
This is something that would be taken up by the SC. The SC would not allow this if there is no law supporting it. Thomas and alito, maybe ACB. I doubt even Kav would support this. Thats at most 4 votes. Robert's sure as hell will not, he cares about his legacy. And gorsch, while conservative, is actually a textualist that does rule as such. He will go by what the law states. Look at his title ix ruling and his rulings on Native American cases. There is no law saying counting stops after the third day and thus gorsch will not put a stop to counting.
The cases i would worry on would be the ones where you want to allow new ballots to be accepted past the third.
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Quick primer on how sportsbooks make money. Say we are betting on a literal coinflip, I bet heads, you bet tails. The sportsbook offers the bet. We both bet $1.
If I win, I win $1, if you win, you win $1. The sportsbook would take the $1 from the losing side to award the winning side. In order for the sportsbook to make money they take 5% of that though so if I win, I only get paid 95 cents, while you lose $1. In order to ensure that they make money, sportsbooks set their lines so that there is as close to an equal amount of money on both sides to ensure that they make money no matter the outcome.
For the most part, the betting public generally follows the advice of the experts when it comes to betting. If the Lakers were to face the Knicks for instance, the Lakers would be getting heavy odds since nobody would bet the Knicks if they didn't receive a substanial payout for winning.
Politics however is different, the betting public in this case tends to vote along their poltical allegiances and Trump supporters in particular do not trust polls or the mainstream media as well. This means the books can be balanced just by setting Trump at +100 to +200. When the real world odds are closer to +700 to +1000. In other words, Trump supporters are fucking themselves.
I've only ever witness one other event like this in my lifetime - Mayweather vs MacGregor (boxing match). The TLDR: Floyd Mayweather is considered by many to be the greatest boxer of his generation, possibly of all time even. Connor MacGregor is an excellent MMA fighter who never had a boxing match before. They somehow got together and signed a fight out of it and it became one of the most heaviily betted on sporting event of that year.
MMA fans generally speaking do not watch boxing. Many of them had zero idea what was going on so the books were giving MacGregor +700 and Mayweather -300. In reality, it should have been way higher. There was no way Mayweather should have gotten anything higher than -1000 to win. But MMA fans were influencing the action and got swindled. It's widely considered to be a once in a lifetime bet because sporting events typically don't playout like that where the betting public is so thoroughly wrong vs the experts. Usually, the betting public follows the experts. In this case they didn't because the experts themselves were UFC stans (Joe Rogan, Dana White) while boxing analysts aren't as well known. This created a scenario where smart bettors were getting 30% payouts on an event that should have been paying out at around 5%. I missed out on that bet when it happened and I never thought I'd see something like that again. Typically, an event that even has a chance of that happening, the sportsbooks will limit the max bet size so to limit their downside losses if it goes wrong for them.
In short, you should be hammering the lines on Biden because Trump bettors cant take off their MAGA hats to analyze what is going on objectively and as a result are creating a once in a lifetime bet scenario for Biden bettors.
Quick primer on how sportsbooks make money. Say we are betting on a literal coinflip, I bet heads, you bet tails. The sportsbook offers the bet. We both bet $1.
If I win, I win $1, if you win, you win $1. The sportsbook would take the $1 from the losing side to award the winning side. In order for the sportsbook to make money they take 5% of that though so if I win, I only get paid 95 cents, while you lose $1. In order to ensure that they make money, sportsbooks set their lines so that there is as close to an equal amount of money on both sides to ensure that they make money no matter the outcome.
For the most part, the betting public generally follows the advice of the experts when it comes to betting. If the Lakers were to face the Knicks for instance, the Lakers would be getting heavy odds since nobody would bet the Knicks if they didn't receive a substanial payout for winning.
Politics however is different, the betting public in this case tends to vote along their poltical allegiances and Trump supporters in particular do not trust polls or the mainstream media as well. This means the books can be balanced just by setting Trump at +100 to +200. When the real world odds are closer to +700 to +1000. In other words, Trump supporters are fucking themselves.
I've only ever witness one other event like this in my lifetime - Mayweather vs MacGregor (boxing match). The TLDR: Floyd Mayweather is considered by many to be the greatest boxer of his generation, possibly of all time even. Connor MacGregor is an excellent MMA fighter who never had a boxing match before. They somehow got together and signed a fight out of it and it became one of the most heaviily betted on sporting event of that year.
MMA fans generally speaking do not watch boxing. Many of them had zero idea what was going on so the books were giving MacGregor +700 and Mayweather -300. In reality, it should have been way higher. There was no way Mayweather should have gotten anything higher than -1000 to win. But MMA fans were influencing the action and got swindled. It's widely considered to be a once in a lifetime bet because sporting events typically don't playout like that where the betting public is so thoroughly wrong vs the experts. Usually, the betting public follows the experts. In this case they didn't because the experts themselves were UFC stans (Joe Rogan, Dana White) while boxing analysts aren't as well known. This created a scenario where smart bettors were getting 30% payouts on an event that should have been paying out at around 5%. I missed out on that bet when it happened and I never thought I'd see something like that again. Typically, an event that even has a chance of that happening, the sportsbooks will limit the max bet size so to limit their downside losses if it goes wrong for them.
In short, you should be hammering the lines on Biden because Trump bettors cant take off their MAGA hats to analyze what is going on objectively and as a result are creating a once in a lifetime bet scenario for Biden bettors.
80 year old rich white man that can't tell which way is up. He probably picked the candidates at random.
taking the third and the fourth off. it will be good for my coworkers not to experience me on those days.
THIS JUST IN: OANN calls the election for President Trump 538-0 with 0% precincts reporting.
I made a bet on Biden months ago when odds were about even. Doesn't make sense that Trump would win but who knows. It is 2020 and he could contest the results.
What Dems need to ensure in PA is that Philadelphia county has enough staff to count VBM that day, same with Allegheny and Montgomery counties.
Can't they start counting at 12:01am on election day?
Can't they start counting at 12:01am on election day?
Really fascinating post, thought it was great. The only bet I ever placed in my life was on the Mayweather fight for the very reasons you mentioned above, and it does seem as though we're seeing something similar here based on these early voting figures. If I was interested in placing a bet, what would you recommend as reasonable/decent odds? For a straight win for Biden it seems to be 4/9 at both Paddy Power and Betfair (I'm Europe based so those are my main options). Does that sound like reasonable odds to you? Or do you think there is little value in the direct win and more value to be found in state subset groupings (both of those sites offer bets on groupings of states, but not specific states individually).
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