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Relic

Member
Oct 28, 2017
632
www.nytimes.com

Opinion | Democrats, Here’s How to Lose in 2022. And Deserve It. (Published 2021)

You don’t get re-elected for things voters don’t know about.

Some quotes:

This is the responsibility the Democratic majority must bear: If they fail or falter, they will open the door for Trumpism or something like it to return, and there is every reason to believe it will be far worse next time.

They feed on ineffective government — and their great appeal is that they claim to replace it with a government that is effective through their own autocratic power."

First, they need to help people fast and visibly. Second, they need to take politics seriously, recognizing that defeat in 2022 will result in catastrophe. The Trumpist Republican Party needs to be politically discredited through repeated losses; it cannot simply be allowed to ride back to primacy on the coattails of Democratic failure. And, finally, they need to do more than talk about the importance of democracy. They need to deepen American democracy.

But none of these bills will pass a Senate in which the filibuster forces 60-vote supermajorities on routine legislation. And that clarifies the real question Democrats face. They have plenty of ideas that could improve people's lives and strengthen democracy. But they have, repeatedly, proven themselves more committed to preserving the status quo of the political system than fulfilling their promises to voters. They have preferred the false peace of decorum to the true progress of democracy. If they choose that path again, they will lose their majority in 2022, and they will deserve it.

"There's a belief among a certain set of Democrats that taking an idea and cutting it in half makes it a better idea when it just makes it a worse idea,"

The Making Work Pay tax credit, which was a centerpiece of the Recovery Act, was constructed to be invisible — the Obama administration, working off new research in behavioral economics, believed Americans would be more likely to spend a windfall that they didn't know they got. "When all was said and done, only around 10 percent of people who received benefits knew they had received something from the government," says Suzanne Mettler, a political scientist at Cornell. You don't get re-elected for things voters don't know you did.

"Democrats are famous for 87-point programs which sometimes do some good but nobody understands what they are," Senator Sanders said.

Thus far, America has bobbled its vaccination rollout. But the fault doesn't lie only with Trump. In blue states where Democrats command both power and resources, like California and New York, overly restrictive eligibility criteria slowed the rollout, and huge numbers of shots were locked in freezers. It's an embarrassment.

In other words, what Democrats need to do is simple: Just help people, and do it fast.

I love this editorial. It's like it was sent from heaven. It discredits Republicans while recognizing that Democrats need to seize this opportunity and not repeat the mistakes of the past. I remember reading the summaries of Obamacare and thinking it will be great once it's fully in effect. That turned out to be well into a Republican tide.

tldr: Enough 87-point programs and tax credits for minority small business owners who were first-generation graduates of HBCUs who had at least 5 employees with businesses affected by the pandemic who make less than $250,000 a year. Just give people money and do other common sense stuff that even the most out-of-the-loop voter can understand.
 

entremet

You wouldn't toast a NES cartridge
Member
Oct 26, 2017
60,426
Yeah, this is a historical weakness with the Democrats.

If you poll Americans, regardless of party, on issue by issue, social democratic issues prevail.
 
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moblin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,107
Москва
Seeing people on this very site, some of whom eventually ended up fleeing, spend hours and hours defending (now VP) Kamala's bonkers needle-threading plans as she struggled to stay above 4% support in her own party's primary was kind of fascinating, frankly.

Successful leadership requires boldness, action, and yes, strength. Tinkering around with incrementalism and obsessing over process preservation only gets you so far, sometimes, and fails often.
 

Orayn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,034
Start by giving me the full $2000 today.

For real though, I'm expecting them to fall back into this means tested diluted crap relatively soon and guarantee a bloodbath in 2022 and 2024.
 

CDX

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,477
what Democrats need to do is simple: Just help people, and do it fast.
I can't disagree with that statement.


I hope the Dems nuke or at least nerf the filibuster pretty quickly, and start getting stuff done.
 

platocplx

2020 Member Elect
Member
Oct 30, 2017
36,072
Yeah Dems can win every day of the week with economic populism and deliver on it. And can get all the other shit done behind the scenes with less fanfare. All the general pop care about is more money.
 

Codeblue

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,841
If there's one thing American politicians love, it's means testing. Hope Dems can see the value in simple universal programs.
 

TyrantII

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,370
Boston
YES

Pass big legislation, and then make the GOP run against popular programs. Go on the offensive for once! 2022 already looks favorable, move the ball down the field!
 

Deleted member 4346

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,976
Start by giving me the full $2000 today.

For real though, I'm expecting them to fall back into this means tested diluted crap relatively soon and guarantee a bloodbath in 2022 and 2024.

They really need to cut those checks ASAP. Get that money in people's hands, show them government can work for them quickly when Dems have control. People's memory of the Capitol Hill riots is still fresh and the Republicans are not well-united. Open up the purse strings and roll with an impeachment trial to keep the opposition reeling.
 

Deleted member 46493

User requested account closure
Banned
Aug 7, 2018
5,231
Dems have to stop with the "get 10 """"smart"""" people in the room till they come into 'consensus'" on policy. Just do it.
 

Sieffre

Member
Oct 27, 2017
787
United States
On top of that, the only reason Democrats won in this election was because of black people. Over the next two years, there needs to be some serious legislation that affects black people positively to keep them engaged and continuing to vote, and there needs to be a major push to get people to turn out for midterms.
 

fontguy

Avenger
Oct 8, 2018
16,170
The time for means testing and policy wonk lemon fics is so far behind us you can't even see it in the rear view.
 

Kraid

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,304
Cuck Zone
Simpler is better too, because Republican talking points are dead simple to understand. "Government is bad. Taxes are bad. That's your money!" It's easy enough for a high schooler to understand (and this is probably why most Republican talking points are high school level idiocy!)
 

LCGeek

Member
Oct 28, 2017
5,861
Dems have to stop with the "get 10 """"smart"""" people in the room till they come into 'consensus'" on policy. Just do it.

Some dems are bureaucrats serving their own self interest that is the intent. Act like your doing something while actually doing nothing.
 

captmcblack

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,084
This is a good editorial.

I'm glad it's clear this is actually happening based on all the announcements and reporting so far.
 

Deleted member 2210

User-requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,366
Start by giving me the full $2000 today.

For real though, I'm expecting them to fall back into this means tested diluted crap relatively soon and guarantee a bloodbath in 2022 and 2024.

Right?

The whole semantic +1400 issue doesn't matter. Most read it as 2k. The Georgia tweet said 2k.
And what is really to be lost by giving people 2k?
 

Deleted member 4461

User Requested Account Deletion
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,010
I can't find anything to disagree with here. Selling yourself is a big part of politics, and I think Trump showed us that. Even without doing much good, he boasted about pretty much everything he did. His supporters ate that shit up, and his detractors knew about it.

I will say that this will put a ton of other policies on the back burner, but hopefully by 2022 we have built enough clout in the eyes of the American people to pass more significant socialist programs.
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
I think a lot of the problems with Obama's presidency stem from an earnest belief that he could be the post-partisan president, doing good work with both parties and remaining "above" politics. That obviously didn't happen, thanks to a coordinated campaign from the Republican Party to fundamentally oppose everything he did, but in hindsight the Democrats should have anticipated it much sooner and changed gears to reflect the environment they were playing in.

Hopefully Biden takes that experience to heart and puts in the work. Direct stimulus, from a purely political perspective, goes a lot further in currying favor with voters. I'm pleased that, based on what Hakeem Jeffries tweeted earlier, they already seem to be working on upping the stimulus checks from $1400 to $2000 - easy win. Same with the child tax credit which can be claimed monthly. That's an immediate benefit that people can draw a direct line from "sweet, free $300 every month" to Biden being in office.

Even Biden's immigration bill proposal was refreshingly straightforward compared to Obama's 2013 bill, which was loaded with caveats (necessary to win Republican support, which it did in the Senate, though obviously went nowhere in the Republican-controlled House).

We'll see. Get some good stuff done that's easy to explain and 2022 could actually be a decent midterm. I don't want any repeats of when the ACA passed and all my friends were just like "so... what does this mean?" and I couldn't really give them a good laymen's explanation.
 

1.21Gigawatts

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,278
Munich
That's it. That's literally it.

Abandon the technocratic fetishism and help everyone you can, directly.

But how?

I think Biden should start talking about the big problems:
1. Climate change
2. Inequality

And then act on both:
1. Economic transformation to a sustainable economy that doesn't rely on growth (because growth is inherently not sustainable, so we can't have both)
2. Legislative transformation enforcing sustainable and socially just wealth distributions in society.


How do we transform the economy in such a way that it becomes sustainable?
Well, few things: Tax fossil fuels accordingly to the damage they do when burned. Introduce a finite number of emission certificates and reduce the contingent gradually in a way that net-zero emissions are reached by 2040.
Apart from emissions, tax capital accordingly to their ecological and societal impact of the supplychains it originated from. This is a big data issue.

How do we fight inequality?
Well, mainly through taxation.
It is an empirical fact that capital accumulates over time. Like matter in the universe, it bunches up. This accumulation over time distorts markets and ruins everything. Our current wealth distribution is also, from a perspective of efficiency, simply a straight-up inefficient distribution.
A more equal distribution would greatly increase economic activity.

So tax wealth, to a point where billionaires simply cant happen anymore. And use that money to finance social systems, mainly healthcare and education.



So do you think that can just be done?
 

Tuck

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,589
He's right. The Republicans thrive on the government being unproductive. The tool that allows them to ensure that just be removed.
 

Dekuman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,028
Not a bad advice, simple plans are simple to explain and sell.
More difficult for the opposition to obfuscate and attack certain parts of a complex plan and mischaracterize it (see: ACA)
 

xfactor99

Member
Oct 28, 2017
731
Obamacare was really over-engineered wonkery fuckery all-around. From an obsession with bending the cost curve to defending the individual mandate because of the three-legged stool, it showed how to overthink public policy. This time, keep it simple, Dems!

Biden might actually help with this as he is a more straight to the point guy whereas Obama and Hillary would be the types to over-optimize a public policy and make it too complex for the average voter or make them not see the results.
 

Orayn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,034
He's right. The Republicans thrive on the government being unproductive. The tool that allows them to ensure that just be removed.
And coincidentally, the dems love being unproductive, wringing their hands over what the opposition will think about even the mildest reforms, and needing to use a fainting couch.

Meanwhile republicans successfully ram through the most extreme versions of their policy goals the instant they have control. They're pure evil but they don't hesitate at all when they want to do something.
 

makonero

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,690
Good article. Simple plans that affect americans in tangible ways--that's how you get re-elected.
 

daschysta

Member
Mar 24, 2019
896
Absolutely spot on. The days of means tested overly complex technocratic flagelation should be over. At the end of the day the political aspect is just as, if not more important. If our position is that big government helps people then we need to help people in simple ways they can understand.
 

LegendofJoe

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,099
Arkansas, USA
Biden the LBJ to Obama's JFK? I like it, the GOP had their chance to help improve the country. They have no interest in doing that, so run them the fuck over and make this country strong again.
 

Surakian

Shinra Employee
Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
10,923
Yes. Go big, or get trampled over by the GOP again. They can't spend time trying to play 4D chess. Please the people and the people will be pleased with you. It's that simple.
 

GameAddict411

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,527
This is a real problem. The fillbuster needs to be killed immediately. Introduce laws to protect election integrity, and more then anything introduce laws to help the people. Playing with the bi-partisan bill bullshit will just put back the status quo that kicked them off government control for years.
 

soda mixer

Member
Jul 4, 2018
194
Thanks for sharing—I haven't read it yet, but Ezra's been beating that "strengthen democratic institutions" drum for a while now. I can't wait for his new podcast to launch!
 

LifeLine

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,779
The same people are in charge that were in charge 2008-2016

Something tells me they'll be making the same mistakes they did then
 

Nola

Member
Oct 29, 2017
8,156
The slow radicalizing of Ezra Klein has been fun.

He's right though, 100%
 

Codeblue

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,841
He's right, and stuff like this would be a great start:



Less tax credits, more direct payments


They already said they were going to means test this, which is going to leave people high and dry that live in high cost of living areas, or people whose income situation has changed dramatically over the course of the pandemic.

It's good that it's happening, but it lacks the simplicity that would make it most effective.
 

Autumn

Avenger
Apr 1, 2018
6,414
I hope they do something about the Obamacare penalty. My work situation last years was messed up and didn't have insurance from my work for like 9 months.
 

Nola

Member
Oct 29, 2017
8,156
They already said they were going to means test this, which is going to leave people high and dry that live in high cost of living areas, or people whose income situation has changed dramatically over the course of the pandemic.

It's good that it's happening, but it lacks the simplicity that would make it most effective.
The thing Democrats continue to refuse to learn is that their most ardent haters are typically the people that fall into the gap of the programs.

The high five figure or low six figure family, that may or may not have lost their job, that isn't gonna qualify for ACA subsidies, means tested college tuition programs, most stimulus checks and money, most of the offered establishment policies, and is just generally locked out of the social safety net.

There is a reason Medicare is popular, Social Security, and the healthcare in any industrialized country(since they all have mostly non means tested UHC guarantees).

Democrats overthink everything while also being completely absent minded. It's a rare gift.
 

discotheque

Member
Dec 23, 2019
3,861
They already said they were going to means test this, which is going to leave people high and dry that live in high cost of living areas, or people whose income situation has changed dramatically over the course of the pandemic.

It's good that it's happening, but it lacks the simplicity that would make it most effective.
I agree universal would be better, but worth noting they're planning to have a mechanism for people to report sudden income loss:
The Democratic proposal is also expected to phase out above a certain income, meaning affluent families would not receive it. Eligibility would be based on family income in the prior year, much like the stimulus payments. Taxpayers could use the new Treasury portal to update their status if they saw dramatic income declines, according to the people familiar with plans, stressing that these decisions had not been finalized.
 

Dekim

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,313
Right?

The whole semantic +1400 issue doesn't matter. Most read it as 2k. The Georgia tweet said 2k.
And what is really to be lost by giving people 2k?
Exactly. Seeing people in the other thread argue whether the Dems meant a whole $2000 on top of the $600 or $1400 + $600 misses to point politically. Dems campaigned on $2000 checks. People voted on the basis Dems will get them $2000. It is that simple. Trying to complicate this by trying to explain to disappointed voters why they only got $1400 instead of $2000 is the kind of wonky shit that Erza is saying Dems need to avoid.
 
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