[NSW] 333K
[PS4] 141K
[XB1] 130K
Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of January and February. Normally this is a simple month to month comparison as both January and February have 4 weeks, except every five to six years January becomes a 5 week month. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for February to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 January: 281K / 5 = 56,200
Xbox 360 February: 302K / 4 = 75,500
Weekly average +34%
PS3 January: 201K / 5 = 40,200
PS3 February: 262K / 4 = 65,500
Weekly average +63%
Notable Events in February
Xbox 360
Tax Returns
Dead Space 3 [4 weeks]
Aliens: Colonial Marines [3 weeks]
Crysis 3 [2 weeks]
Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance [2 weeks] [>70k]
PS3
Tax Returns
Dead Space 3 [4 weeks]
Sly Cooper: Thieves in Time [4 weeks]
Aliens: Colonial Marines [3 weeks]
Crysis 3 [2 weeks]
Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance [2 weeks] [>130k]
Code:
2014
Xbox 360 January: 48K / 4 = 12,000
Xbox 360 February: 114K / 4 = 28,500
Weekly average +138%
Xbox One January: 143K / 4 = 35,750
Xbox One February: 258K / 4 = 64,500
Weekly average +80%
PS3 January: 54K / 4 = 13,500
PS3 February: 102K / 4 = 25,500
Weekly average +89%
PS4 January: 271K / 4 = 67,750
PS4 February: 269K / 4 = 67,250
Weekly average -1%
Notable Events in February
Xbox One
Tax Returns
The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Thief [1 week]
Plants vs Zombies: Garden Warfare [1 week]
PS4
Tax Returns / Supply constrained: Demand > Supply
The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Thief [1 week]
Xbox 360
Tax Returns
The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Lightning Returns: Final Fantasy XIII [3 weeks]
Thief [1 week]
PS3
Tax Returns
The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Lightning Returns: Final Fantasy XIII [3 weeks]
Thief [1 week]
Code:
2015
Xbox One January: 150K / 4 = 37,500
Xbox One February: 276K / 4 = 69,000
Weekly average +84%
PS4 January: 189K / 4 = 47,250
PS4 February: 342K / 4 = 85,500
Weekly average +81%
Notable Events in February
Xbox One
Tax Returns
Evolve [3 weeks]
Dragon Ball: Xenoverse [1 week]
PS4
Tax Returns
Evolve [3 weeks]
Order 1886 [2 weeks] [19XK]
Dragon Ball: Xenoverse [1 week]
Code:
2016
Xbox One January: 131K / 4 = 32,750
Xbox One February: 248K / 4 = 62,000
Weekly average +89%
PS4 January: 229K / 4 = 57,250
PS4 February: 405K / 4 = 101,250
Weekly average +77%
Notable Events in February
Xbox One
Tax Returns
Name Your Game 500GB Bundle $349 [Forza 6/Tomb Raider/Gears UE/Rare Replay] [3 weeks]
Far Cry Primal [1 week] [157K]
Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4 [3 weeks] [<97K]
PS4
Tax Returns
Far Cry Primal 1TB bundle $399 [1 week]
Street Fighter V [2 weeks] [~207K]
Far Cry Primal [1 week] [206K]
Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4 [3 weeks] [<193K]
Code:
2017
Xbox One January: 158K / 4 = 39,500
Xbox One February: 215K / 4 = 53,750
Weekly average +36%
PS4 January: 211K / 4 = 52,750
PS4 February: 398K / 4 = 99,500
Weekly average +89%
Notable Events in February
Xbox One
Tax Returns / Earned-Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) delayed to February 15
Price Cut $50 February 17th - February 25th [9 days] 500GB $249 / 1TB $299
Forza Horizon 3 500GB bundle $299 [3 weeks]
Halo Wars 2: Ultimate Edition 1TB bundle $349 [2 weeks]
For Honor [2 weeks]
Halo Wars 2 [1 week]
PS4
Tax Returns / Earned-Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) delayed to February 15
PS4 500GB Price Cut $50 February 12th - February 25th [14 days] 500GB $249
Call of Duty Infinite Warfare Deluxe Edition Glacier White 500GB Bundle $299 [Walmart] [3 weeks]
Nioh [3 weeks]
For Honor [2 weeks]
Code:
2018
Switch January: 275K / 5 = 55,000
Switch February: 279K / 4 = 69,750
Weekly average +27%
Xbox One January: 235K / 5 = 47,000
Xbox One February: 310K / 4 = 77,500
Weekly average +65%
PS4 January: 254K / 5 = 50,800
PS4 February: 363K / 4 = 90,750
Weekly average +79%
Notable Events in February
Switch
Tax Returns
Xbox One
Tax Returns
Price Cut $50 February 18th - March 3rd [14 days] 500GB $229 / 1TB $249
PUBG with every Xbox One X February 18th - February 24th [7 days]
PUBG 1TB Bundle $299 [2 weeks]
Kingdom Come Deliverance [3 weeks]
PS4
Tax Returns
GameStop Only: Trade in PS4/XB1/NSW and get up to $350 towards PS4 Pro. Offer valid 1/26/18 - 2/11/18 [9 days in January NPD / 8 days in February NPD]
Shadow of the Colossus [4 weeks]
Kingdom Come Deliverance [3 weeks]
Code:
2019
Switch January: 284K / 4 = 71,000
Switch February: 363K / 4 = 90,750
Weekly average +28%
Xbox One January: 101K / 4 = 25,250
Xbox One February: 225K / 4 = 56,250
Weekly average +123%
PS4 January: 195K / 4 = 48,750
PS4 February: 283K / 4 = 70,750
Weekly average +45%
Notable Events in February
Switch
Tax Returns
Switch + $35 eShop code Bundle $299 [3 weeks]
Xbox One
Tax Returns
Xbox One X Fallout 76 1TB Bundles $399 [February 2 - March 31]
Xbox One X Bundles $449 / Xbox One S Bundles $249 [February 17 - March 2] [2 weeks]
Xbox One X Metro Saga 1TB Bundle $499 [$449 during price cut]
Xbox One S 1TB Anthem Bundle $299 [$249 during price cut]
Anthem [2 weeks]
Crackdown 3 [3 weeks]
Far Cry: New Dawn [3 weeks]
Metro Exodus [3 weeks]
Jump Force [3 weeks]
Dead or Alive 6 [1 week]
PS4
Tax Returns
Anthem [2 weeks]
Far Cry: New Dawn [3 weeks]
Metro Exodus [3 weeks]
Jump Force [3 weeks]
Dead or Alive 6 [1 week]
Code:
2020 January Weekly Averages *Using #1 Predictor
Switch: 275K / 4 = 68,750
PS4: 120K / 4 = 30,000
Xbox One: 60K / 4 = 15,000
Notable Events in February
Switch
Tax Returns
Xbox One
Tax Returns
Xbox One X $349 [Jan 19 - Feb 16] [First 2 weeks in February NPD]
Xbox One S All-Digital Edition $199 / Xbox One S $249 / Xbox One X $299 [Feb 21 - Mar 7] [Last 2 weeks in February NPD]
PS4
Tax Returns
Notes
From one of the slowest months of the year to the (usually) biggest non holiday month of the year, February is a massive improvement over January, almost doubling sales. This is thanks to tax returns.
Xbox
The Xbox One has had strong surges in February compared to the massive drops in January from December. 2014 was helped due to a $499 console benefiting from tax returns compared to January, 2015 was helped from a late January price cut back to $349, and 2016 had the launch of the Name Your Game bundle where you could choose 1 of 4 different games at $349. 2017 was pretty weak with only a 36% increase despite the $50 price cut. The PS4 sold extremely well at the same time so it's possible that having less days at $249 is a reason for the under performance. The price cut also looked to have been a response to Sony's cut to begin with so there was little time for sales to be boosted. 2018 weekly average wasn't the highest, but the notable events helped it reach the highest total February sales for the platform all generation.
2019 turned out to be a big boost in sales compared to what should've been expected. A deep price cut for the Xbox One X to start the month and ending the month with Xbox One S price cuts, along with the massive amount of software releases boosted Xbox sales by more than double.
2020 kind of has that same strategy going for it, except there was no high profile software launch all month.To counter that though is the One X going all the way down to $299, lower than the holiday price cut of $349. With the generation coming to a close this year, and the terrible January 2020 result, price cuts alone might not be able to post a good result.
The Xbox One has so far averaged an increase of +80%, with a minimum of +36% (2017) and a maximum of +123% (2019).
Playstation
PS4 has a pretty clear outlier in 2014 as there were stock shortages for holiday 2013 and early 2014. Sales actually fell in February 2014 compared to every other console seeing a boost. Every year after that was much more reasonable and followed the XB1 in having around a +80% increase. PS4 peaked in 2017 thanks to a temporary price cut to $249 which was the most notable event to happen to the PS4 in February all generation.
2019 in comparison was not much to speak about, which sort of hinted at how the PS4 would perform overall in 2019. The lowest increase at +45%, with nothing besides a lot of software launches. January 2019 did end with Kingdom Hearts 3 so maybe that affected February, but it wouldn't be by the degree of moving 40% of February sales to January.
2020 has nothing for PS4. It's barren, thanks to the industry preparing for next gen this holiday. PS4 has been slowing down pretty heavily since the start of 2019, and nothing in February to stop the bleeding can't lead to a great result.
The PS4 has so far averaged an increase of +74%, with a minimum of +45% (2019) and a maximum of +89% (2017). This excludes the 2014 drop.
Nintendo
Switch also has nothing in February in 2020, but that's more understandable as March will have Animal Crossing. The platform has sold similar amounts for the past three January's, and the weekly average in 2018 and 2019 increased by an almost exact +27/+28%. Nowhere as high as the XB1 and PS4 increases, but that is because Switch has had significantly higher January sales than the other two. Following a similar +20-30% seems reasonable for Switch this year.
Recap
February is the third strongest selling month of the year behind November and December. Massive, almost doubling sales from January unless January was a 5 week month.
The biggest February ever recorded back in the 7th was the Wii with 753,000 back in 2009. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 535,000 in 2011.
The biggest February ever recorded in the 8th is the PS4 with 404,900 in 2016. Second biggest? PS4 again with 398,000 in 2017.
