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Dan Thunder

Member
Nov 2, 2017
14,111
Would be hilarious if Newey ended up at Ferrari next year and from them on Hamilton ends up dominating for the next few years, just to see the rage from people who said he just lucked into getting into the right team at the right time when he switched to Mercedes.

Wonder what else will happen this year, Horner out? Ricciardo out? Sargent out?
 

thenexus6

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,362
UK
Best timeline.

Newey only agrees to join Aston if they bin Stroll. Alonso gets his final championship then retires that year.
 

Terbinator

Member
Oct 29, 2017
10,295
Obviously don't know the man and we don't know the ins and outs of the contract/gardening leave situation.

He's got nothing else to prove so although it defies logic, perhaps, the romance of Ferrari sort of makes sense before checking out - especially if you can get them back on the top step.

Also lol

View: https://x.com/F1REAKS/status/1783709605127770439
 
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Dan

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,966

View: https://x.com/F1/status/1783776380154708233

Hulk reunites with VW Group and Andreas Seidl.

wec-porsche-bahrain-testing-2015-andreas-seidl-porsche-team-manager-with-nico-hulkenberg.jpg
 

DGS

Member
Nov 2, 2017
2,317
Tyrol
Hopefully both.

Imo, Hulkenberg and Sainz would be a great driver combo for Audi.

With these two drivers Audi would immediately know how good the car is in relation to the other teams.
 
Oct 28, 2017
5,397


Least surprising switch of the season. But good for him, I hope Audi will actually start to get good while he is still in F1. I have my doubts though.

Not sure Sainz wants to go, but there are rumors now of Gasly going to Williams, so that probably means Antonelli goes to Mercedes and then Sainz will be a lock for Audi.

Wouldn't be surprised if Bottas then goes to Haas along with Bearman.
 

navanman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,746
Dublin
Bottas for retirement hopefully, he has been on a don't give a fuck mode for last 2 years.
Zhou is gone too, look at his emotion on driving his one & likely only Chinese GP in front of a home crowd.
 

AnilP228

Member
Mar 14, 2018
1,259
Bottas for retirement hopefully, he has been on a don't give a fuxk mode for last 2 years.
Zhou is gone too, look at this emotion on driving his one & likely only Chinese GP in front of a home crowd.
I wouldn't mind seeing Zhou at Williams tbh, but I do find it annoying how he was comfortably outperformed by Mick in F2 and ends up with a longer career. Always wished Mick got that Alfa seat and not the Haas one.

I'm definitely ready for Bottas and Perez to leave grid. It'll be interesting to see what the Alpine drivers get up to - it wouldn't surprise me if one of them jumps ship.
 

Sec0nd

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
6,077
Wondering what'll happen with Bottas and Zhou. Feels like at least one of them will be out of the sport. Maybe even both. But even though they both aren't setting the world on fire I think they do kinda deserve their spots. Zhou is keeping up pretty decent usually, and Bottas does sometimes show he's got a lot left in the tank to give.
 

XaviConcept

Art Director for Videogames
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
4,966
Wondering what'll happen with Bottas and Zhou. Feels like at least one of them will be out of the sport. Maybe even both. But even though they both aren't setting the world on fire I think they do kinda deserve their spots. Zhou is keeping up pretty decent usually, and Bottas does sometimes show he's got a lot left in the tank to give.
Zhou is probably worth keeping on the grid purely for marketing regardless of performance
 

Linus815

Member
Oct 29, 2017
19,923
Bottas: perfect for haas or williams imo, driver with great experience and hes clean. and i know people say hes washed but hes quietly had some really good races recently, but the terrible strategy/reliability from sauber really hides that.

I think Zhou's out. I know there's money behind him but I just don't think it offsets his lack in skill. Like in the current williams or haas i reckon he wouldnt be scoring points, while drivers on the level of Hulk/Albon can pick a few up. i think picking a few points up is more valuable than the 20-30mil he brings, especially in the cost cap era. But maybe im wrong!
 
Oct 28, 2017
5,397
I wouldn't mind seeing Zhou at Williams tbh, but I do find it annoying how he was comfortably outperformed by Mick in F2 and ends up with a longer career. Always wished Mick got that Alfa seat and not the Haas one.

I'm definitely ready for Bottas and Perez to leave grid. It'll be interesting to see what the Alpine drivers get up to - it wouldn't surprise me if one of them jumps ship.

Zhou was not fast in his first season, but he was incredibly good at keeping the car on track and in one piece. The Silverstone crash was his only one and not his fault.

Mick won the destructor's championship two years in a row. Some times being fastest isn't the most important.
 

Carn

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,957
The Netherlands
Zhou was not fast in his first season, but he was incredibly good at keeping the car on track and in one piece. The Silverstone crash was his only one and not his fault.

Mick won the destructor's championship two years in a row. Some times being fastest isn't the most important.

yeah for a backmarker team you'dd rather prefer a driver who keeps the car in one piece and gets the team valuable data; since points are usually out of the question anyways.
 

Dan

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,966
Zhou is a good driver, just not anywhere elite. And hasn't shown much progress in F1 since. Pretty much in the De Vries/Mick - A very good driver who will win championships elsewhere - not F1. His presence in F1 is purely passport related, just like Sargeant.
 

Odesu

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,552
Bottas and Zhou will 100% be gone from Audi. We know that Audio really wants Sainz and with Alonso signing Aston and seemingly no room at Red Bull or Mercedes I think that's the most probable pairing: Hülkenberg/Sainz.
 

jcdr

Member
Feb 23, 2019
132
Would be hilarious if Newey ended up at Ferrari next year and from them on Hamilton ends up dominating for the next few years, just to see the rage from people who said he just lucked into getting into the right team at the right time when he switched to Mercedes.

Wonder what else will happen this year, Horner out? Ricciardo out? Sargent out?
That would actually reinforce the "lucky" narrative, saying that he not only lucked when moved to Mercedes but also for switching to Ferrari at the same time that Newey.
 
Oct 28, 2017
5,397
That would actually reinforce the "lucky" narrative, saying that he not only lucked when moved to Mercedes but also for switching to Ferrari at the same time that Newey.

People were calling Lewis crazy for switching away from McLaren to Mercedes, but it was a perfect move pretty much. Don't think you can call it luck.
 

jcdr

Member
Feb 23, 2019
132
People were calling Lewis crazy for switching away from McLaren to Mercedes, but it was a perfect move pretty much. Don't think you can call it luck.
Whether a move is good or bad it's known years after, not at the moment it happens.

For example, at the time Alonso's moves to McLaren and Ferrari were considered good and his move to AM bad, while the move of Lewis to Mercedes was considered bad; years after those move proved themselves the opposite of what was expected.

I don't think Lewis move to Mercedes was luck, I believe that he knew what was going on -although not to expect 7 years of Mercedes domination- that that's how Lauda convinced him to switch and I would expect to be somewhat similar this time.

And don't get this as a criticism to Lewis, quite the opposite, hat's off to him for knowing when and where to move (that got him 6WDC and will see if he gets more).
 
Oct 28, 2017
5,397
Whether a move is good or bad it's known years after, not at the moment it happens.

For example, at the time Alonso's moves to McLaren and Ferrari were considered good and his move to AM bad, while the move of Lewis to Mercedes was considered bad; years after those move proved themselves the opposite of what was expected.

I don't think Lewis move to Mercedes was luck, I believe that he knew what was going on -although not to expect 7 years of Mercedes domination- that that's how Lauda convinced him to switch and I would expect to be somewhat similar this time.

And don't get this as a criticism to Lewis, quite the opposite, hat's off to him for knowing when and where to move (that got him 6WDC and will see if he gets more).

I don't think we disagree at all. I'm just saying that the majority didn't believe in the move back then since he, on paper, was going to a worse team.

It worked out for him was not because he was lucky, but because he saw the trajectory that McLaren was in vs the one at Mercedes.

And now it seems like a bit of the same, even if the move is a lot less wild now after Mercedes had 3 years were they didn't seem like they knew what they were doing. If he had somehow made the switch to Ferrari at the end of last season, which might well have been in the cards, then we could really see him as a bit of a prophet.
 

smcc94x

Member
Jul 13, 2021
278
I read somewhere that supposedly Newey is confident of negotiating an exit from his RBR contract. I'd be very interested to know the basis of this confidence, as I can't see why RB wouldn't hold him to his gardening leave. Another team would surely need to offer a ridiculous buyout fee.

This isn't such exciting news if he won't be able to use his talent elsewhere until 2027.
 

Irrotational

Prophet of Truth
Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,218
A few different folks have told me about the split turbo in the Merc, and James Vowels is recently on record as saying that they emphatically knew they were going to be world champions in 2014 before they even turned a wheel...

So I think/assume that Nikki took the gamble and told Lewis about it and Lewis jumped ship. How much was he told and what did he believe? I don't know. Maybe it was power curves from a test engine or something.

IMHO there is a lot of circumstantial evidence that Lewis knew the Merc engine was going to be a banger and was willing to write off a year (2013) to be there for the good times.

What does any team have cooking for 2026 engines? We don't know. My modern bias is that Merc or Ferrari would be the people to get on...although if you go back in time Renault and Honda etc have plenty of WCC's behind them. I think at least *some* of those WCC's were in spite of the engine rather than directly because of the engine though...
 

Dan Thunder

Member
Nov 2, 2017
14,111
I don't think we disagree at all. I'm just saying that the majority didn't believe in the move back then since he, on paper, was going to a worse team.

It worked out for him was not because he was lucky, but because he saw the trajectory that McLaren was in vs the one at Mercedes.

And now it seems like a bit of the same, even if the move is a lot less wild now after Mercedes had 3 years were they didn't seem like they knew what they were doing. If he had somehow made the switch to Ferrari at the end of last season, which might well have been in the cards, then we could really see him as a bit of a prophet.
It's funny because before testing you'd have thought "Well Mercedes know their issue now so it'll be onwards and upwards whilst Ferrari tread water. Hamilton would be a fool to swap teams." Now though it just looks like prescience as it's not looking likely that Mercedes are going to achieve anything in the current regulation period.

On a side note I do feel a bit sorry for Russell. He did his time at Williams and did it without complaint. Then when the call came to say he was moving up to the main team it coincided with everything going to crap, when before pre-season testing the team thought they were going to bounce back from Abu Dhabi and literally crush the opposition.
 

Dan Thunder

Member
Nov 2, 2017
14,111
I read somewhere that supposedly Newey is confident of negotiating an exit from his RBR contract. I'd be very interested to know the basis of this confidence, as I can't see why RB wouldn't hold him to his gardening leave. Another team would surely need to offer a ridiculous buyout fee.

This isn't such exciting news if he won't be able to use his talent elsewhere until 2027.
There may well be contract clauses that let him out of there without issue, similar to the one that allegedly lets Verstappen walk if Marko goes.
 

Linus815

Member
Oct 29, 2017
19,923
It's funny because before testing you'd have thought "Well Mercedes know their issue now so it'll be onwards and upwards whilst Ferrari tread water. Hamilton would be a fool to swap teams." Now though it just looks like prescience as it's not looking likely that Mercedes are going to achieve anything in the current regulation period.

On a side note I do feel a bit sorry for Russell. He did his time at Williams and did it without complaint. Then when the call came to say he was moving up to the main team it coincided with everything going to crap, when before pre-season testing the team thought they were going to bounce back from Abu Dhabi and literally crush the opposition.

Eh, mercedes never actually seemed confident about "knowing their issue". Even towards the end of 2023 Toto would throw up his hands and have no clue why their updates were not bringing the expected results. Merc was massively flattered by Aston's huge missteps, Mclaren starting with a frankenstein monster car and Ferrari started with a terrible racepace car but had very solid development throughout the season (despite their drivers, esp Charles being super unlucky) Mercedes had a minor overall improvement but clearly not where they expected to be. The other teams also fucked up but they gained a relatively quick understanding of their problems and managed to make pretty immediate imporvements while mercedes continues to really just... not get it. Sure, if you look at the points tally in 2023 you might get the impression mercedes was actually good, but it really doesn't tell the whole story at all.

This season is a lot smoother for the likes of Ferrari and Mclaren - turning up with a good car from the start and it really exposes where mercedes' true position on the grid is. Hell, aston could be ahead of them if Stroll wasn't so shit.

Lewis made a very sensible call, there is only so many times Toto can promise him it will get better - it just simply doesnt, its usually baby steps in terms of drivability but the pace is still extremely situational. Some tracks are good, sometimes conditions are good - but the car isnt reliable at all in terms of turning up at a track and having immediate pace. This has been an issue since 2022.

As for George, yeah its a bit of a shame but frankly no one is entitled a WDC winning car. Even driving a williams f1 car is a huge privilige that im sure many f2/indycar/formulae/literally any motorsport driver would immediately agree to if offered.
 

Dan Thunder

Member
Nov 2, 2017
14,111
Eh, mercedes never actually seemed confident about "knowing their issue". Even towards the end of 2023 Toto would throw up his hands and have no clue why their updates were not bringing the expected results. Merc was massively flattered by Aston's huge missteps, Mclaren starting with a frankenstein monster car and Ferrari started with a terrible racepace car but had very solid development throughout the season (despite their drivers, esp Charles being super unlucky) Mercedes had a minor overall improvement but clearly not where they expected to be. The other teams also fucked up but they gained a relatively quick understanding of their problems and managed to make pretty immediate imporvements while mercedes continues to really just... not get it. Sure, if you look at the points tally in 2023 you might get the impression mercedes was actually good, but it really doesn't tell the whole story at all.

This season is a lot smoother for the likes of Ferrari and Mclaren - turning up with a good car from the start and it really exposes where mercedes' true position on the grid is. Hell, aston could be ahead of them if Stroll wasn't so shit.

Lewis made a very sensible call, there is only so many times Toto can promise him it will get better - it just simply doesnt, its usually baby steps in terms of drivability but the pace is still extremely situational. Some tracks are good, sometimes conditions are good - but the car isnt reliable at all in terms of turning up at a track and having immediate pace. This has been an issue since 2022.

As for George, yeah its a bit of a shame but frankly no one is entitled a WDC winning car. Even driving a williams f1 car is a huge privilige that im sure many f2/indycar/formulae/literally any motorsport driver would immediately agree to if offered.
Maybe I missphrased my point. Throughout last year Mercedes constantly blamed the car being a derivation of the '22 one as the main reason for them not understanding where they were going wrong i.e. because it was based largely on the previous years challenger there wasn't a huge amount they could do to make the necessary improvements they felt would hopefully correlate with what their development programme was showing them to expect.

It wasn't a case of them starting this year with everything working, it was more a case of them believing that they were going to start this season with a car that behaved as expected and that they could reliably update through the year where changes would actually bring the improvements that were being shown in their systems rather than being back in the same "Well, that's not what we expected?!" situation they find themselves in.
 
OP
OP
DBT85

DBT85

Resident Thread Mechanic
Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,383
A few different folks have told me about the split turbo in the Merc, and James Vowels is recently on record as saying that they emphatically knew they were going to be world champions in 2014 before they even turned a wheel...

So I think/assume that Nikki took the gamble and told Lewis about it and Lewis jumped ship. How much was he told and what did he believe? I don't know. Maybe it was power curves from a test engine or something.

IMHO there is a lot of circumstantial evidence that Lewis knew the Merc engine was going to be a banger and was willing to write off a year (2013) to be there for the good times.

What does any team have cooking for 2026 engines? We don't know. My modern bias is that Merc or Ferrari would be the people to get on...although if you go back in time Renault and Honda etc have plenty of WCC's behind them. I think at least *some* of those WCC's were in spite of the engine rather than directly because of the engine though...
They knew they would be best after testing, not before that. Can't possibly know before testing as you have no idea what anyone else has.

I believe his "before we turned a wheel" comment was about the first race weekend.

Knowing that Merc would be a good bet isn't too big a leap. It was an engine formula and only Merc, Ferrari and Renault were available. Merc had only recently bought Brawn which was all top end facilities paid for by Honda before they left. It could have been Ferrari that got it all right.

Similarly for 2026 you want to have your own engine to stand a better chance, and there will then be 6 with Merc, Ferrari, RBPT, Honda, Alpine and Audi.

We can assume Alpine will still be behind, Audi might be OK but it's their first F1 engine AND they are buying Sauber who have been well below par for years. RBPT have a lot of good people but it's their first ever power unit, so what's left is Ferrari, Mercedes and Honda who will pair with Aston.
 

Irrotational

Prophet of Truth
Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,218
They knew they would be best after testing, not before that. Can't possibly know before testing as you have no idea what anyone else has.

I believe his "before we turned a wheel" comment was about the first race weekend.

Ah ok fair enough - maybe I took it too literally. I assumed that they all kept an eye on each other and so Merc knew what the other teams had, pre-testing...but he may well have just meant the first race.

Knowing that Merc would be a good bet isn't too big a leap. It was an engine formula and only Merc, Ferrari and Renault were available. Merc had only recently bought Brawn which was all top end facilities paid for by Honda before they left. It could have been Ferrari that got it all right.

Similarly for 2026 you want to have your own engine to stand a better chance, and there will then be 6 with Merc, Ferrari, RBPT, Honda, Alpine and Audi.

We can assume Alpine will still be behind, Audi might be OK but it's their first F1 engine AND they are buying Sauber who have been well below par for years. RBPT have a lot of good people but it's their first ever power unit, so what's left is Ferrari, Mercedes and Honda who will pair with Aston.

Isn't RBPT ex-honda though? So any views on how nu-honda will shape up versus ex-honda?

Ferrari were clever enough to game the engine regs several years into the fixed regs, so I think they stand a good chance of building the best engine. If they can factor the "cheats" in from the start then it'll be much harder to detect.
 

crespo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,617
I was pretty sure Merc knew with certainty that what they had was well ahead of the others before any testing was done.

Obviously not exactly how much further ahead, but definitely ahead.

I believe his "before we turned a wheel" comment was about the first race weekend.
It usually means exactly what it says. The wheel wasn't even installed in the car yet lol.
 
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OP
OP
DBT85

DBT85

Resident Thread Mechanic
Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,383
Isn't RBPT ex-honda though? So any views on how nu-honda will shape up versus ex-honda?

Ferrari were clever enough to game the engine regs several years into the fixed regs, so I think they stand a good chance of building the best engine. If they can factor the "cheats" in from the start then it'll be much harder to detect.
There are a lot of ex Honda staff at RBPT just because Honda quit and lots of people wanted to go with the RBPT plan. But they don't have any of the Honda IP. Honda refused them that.
 

hobblygobbly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,619
NORDFRIESLAND, DEUTSCHLAND
Stroll Mulls Selling Up to 25% Stake in Aston Martin F1 Team

paywalled unfortunately and cant get past it with disabling scripts

www.bloomberg.com

Stroll Mulls Selling Up to 25% Stake in Aston Martin F1 Team

Billionaire Lawrence Stroll is in early talks to sell another minority stake in his Aston Martin Formula One team to capitalize on the growing popularity of the sport, according to people familiar with the matter.
 

Dogstar

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,022
No Adrian that is so not right!

Sailing around the world hold zeros appeal for me, weeks spent with nothing to look at but water... no thanks, but if that's something he's looking to do then I see retirement being on the cards more than a team swap. Maybe a scaled back consultancy role, or continued work on supercars, but perhaps his days following the F1 circus are over.
 

SP.

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,647
Retirement from F1 seems likely, outside of maybe doing some consulting for hypercar design.