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Kitad

Banned
Feb 15, 2018
164
It has been a hella long time and I wish I could remember the literature, but its point was pretty clear that it did not have a clear causal impact.

Given the fact that social science rarely has definitive answers in topics such as this (there is no counter-factual), I am going to be a little skeptical. I am sure some authors believe there was no impact, but since its so hard to separate or measure what's going inside the minds of the white elites (how can we know if they actully had a change of heart or they were hurting for money?), I am going to guess this is not something you can have a definitive answer on.
 

Ichthyosaurus

Banned
Dec 26, 2018
9,375
Then these United States should address thier problems here before dictating the Whiles of another country.

That's not an option, even were I to agree with you. Moral platitudes don't hold much weight compared to culture and politics. There's no enforcement to make it so. This is ignoring the fact that the people who agree with you have no political influence to make it happen on their own, or America wouldn't look like it does today.
 

Cantaim

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,427
The Stussining
From the literature I read in grad school, sanctions tend not to work. It wasn't the sanctions that ended Apartheid, but a political awakening among South African whites and the National Party in particular backing off from their hardline stances.
It's very anecdotal but my father grew up during the Apartheid in South Africa and he nor anyone else he knew had any idea that there were any sanctions. The government just censured the info so it was harder for normal people to find out. So I would agree with your stance since the political awakening was what happened to him.
 

Freakzilla

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
5,710
Several countries have dealt with issues like that which have gone into full blown civil war, and they still needed outside intervention to prevent it being a slaughter. Not every country can solve their issues internally by themselves, many times it ends up in their defeat. This is why in the First Gulf War the rebels were dependent on HW supporting them, without that they got slaughtered, as well as Trump leaving the Kurds to get purged by Turkey in Syria.

I was referring to the United States. As an American I'm answering this question from the view point of the USA.

Then these United States should address thier problems here before dictating the Whiles of another country.

That would be true if the United States was interfering in other countries for interests other than it's own.
 

Bio

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,370
Denver, Colorado
That we mind our own fucking business. We commit far too many human rights violations to have the moral authority to police other nations.
 

m_dorian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,403
Athens, Greece
Maduro is evil but there are worse governments out there. Yet it is easier to succeed the attempt to remove Maduro than say... a government that kills journalists in their embassies.
You ll figure out why.
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,744
I wish you would do the same to Cuba and Iran as well. Their rulers are garbage for the most part, but putting a heavier burden on the regular people doesnt make sense.
IIRC we were lifting stuff in both and I think Trump took a dump all over it If memory serves. Same crap that happened w/ Iran in 2000 where in the late 90s/early 00s they were olive branching and Dubya took a dump all over it.
 

clemenx

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
476
Venezuela
Modern diplomacy and politics has failed the people. Rwanda, Syria, Srebrenica. Venezuela, Syria, Cuba, Turkey, Iran, Rohingya, Uyghurs. Who knows how much more. All terrible regimes or genocides that have happened and continue to happen and "stern words against" are the only opposition.

Pacifism is to blame. War has its place in the world as a check and balance. Despots do whatever they want because they know there aren't any concequences.
 

Atisha

Banned
Nov 28, 2017
1,331
It's easy for people with no skin in the game, typing away from their computers in their first world country to act sanctimonious about this shit. Makes me ill.
What should make you even iller, is the truth, and it's invariable blowback, not on the powers that be, that will come for them later in due time, but the blowback on the soveringty.
 

Orayn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,028
Do nothing and cross your fingers that global civilization will collapse sooner rather than later. (Starting with us.)
 
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Atisha

Banned
Nov 28, 2017
1,331
Modern diplomacy and politics has failed the people. Rwanda, Syria, Srebrenica. Venezuela, Syria, Cuba, Turkey, Iran, Rohingya, Uyghurs. Who knows how much more. All terrible regimes or genocides that have happened and continue to happen and "stern words against" are the only opposition.

Pacifism is to blame. War has its place in the world as a check and balance. Despots do whatever they want because they know there aren't any concequences.

Lets lay some sacntions on Myanmar, or China for Tibet. Nah. It's all about that Almighty Gawd. Dollars, in this case, another nations oil reserves.

Your Milkshake is ungodly. We Gonna Topple Ya!
 

Heshinsi

Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,095
I mean, OK, but we should at least like think about this for a minute.

Let's say Assad decides in 2021 that since he won the Syrian Civil War, he has the political strength to call for wide scale ethnic cleansing against Sunni Muslims left in Syria.

Should we still just let the chips fall where they may?
Sunni Muslims left in Syria? Sunni Muslims make up over 70% of the population. That's a higher portion of the population than the Shiites made up in Iraq, and even there Saddam did not have the capacity to ethnically wipe them out.
 

Iceman

Member
Oct 26, 2017
605
Alhambra, CA
Bring it to the UN. Of course we should. Let's see what happens in the case of Venezuela:

Oh wait. China and Russia are permanent members with veto power and vested interest in the Maduro regime.

Now what?
 

Daitokuji

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,602
Is the answer ever clear cut? I mean we knew that Assad was committing atrocities for years and did nothing, and couldn't do anything.
 

Ogre

Member
Mar 26, 2018
435
Modern diplomacy and politics has failed the people. Rwanda, Syria, Srebrenica. Venezuela, Syria, Cuba, Turkey, Iran, Rohingya, Uyghurs. Who knows how much more. All terrible regimes or genocides that have happened and continue to happen and "stern words against" are the only opposition.

Pacifism is to blame. War has its place in the world as a check and balance. Despots do whatever they want because they know there aren't any concequences.

Military intervention is a pyrrhic solution for awful dictators/states.

Nothing says "we've liberated the people!" like having a war that kills hundreds of thousands of "the people" through the secondary effects of that war.
 

ty_hot

Banned
Dec 14, 2017
7,176
Modern diplomacy and politics has failed the people. Rwanda, Syria, Srebrenica. Venezuela, Syria, Cuba, Turkey, Iran, Rohingya, Uyghurs. Who knows how much more. All terrible regimes or genocides that have happened and continue to happen and "stern words against" are the only opposition.

Pacifism is to blame. War has its place in the world as a check and balance. Despots do whatever they want because they know there aren't any concequences.
Tell me more about the Iraq invasion based on "chemical weapons"
 

SRG01

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,024
The thing about dictatorships is that they often carry the seeds of their own destruction. They are typically designed to extract wealth from the country, and the dictatorship's alignment with their "base" is a marriage of convenience. If the wealthy prop up a military strongman, they may turn on that strongman when the strongman realizes that the most wealth to be had is in taking from those same wealthy elites.

For the Bolshevik dictatorships, the destruction came from the somewhat good intentions of the leadership. Seeking to revitalize their countries they had to embrace programs of economic openness, and then political openness to enforce that, and so destruction. For something like the South Korean military dictatorship, the bourgeois professionals who had backed it later allied with pro-democratic forces to take it down.

A dictatorship typically needs a raison d'etre. There was some sort of call to action that brought it about, and as that reason expires incentive for change comes around when the dictatorship's natural weaknesses (that is, inability to change and massive corruption) come to light. It's one of the reasons you could argue that North Korea and Cuba survived while all of their brethren fell or transformed beyond recognition (like China and Vietnam). The embargo on Cuba is for the Cuban people an ever-present reminder of why they went for Castro in the first place, they can see the capitalist forces that continue to impoverish them and still turn to the Communists. The state of perpetual armistice in the Korean peninsula does the same for North Korea.

This isn't to say you should coddle dictatorships either, but programs of systemic isolation can create a sense of fear that brings them towards the regime when they otherwise would consider going against them.

Short of full military intervention to overthrow the regime directly, losing a war is often effective. Losing a war (or getting deadlocked in a stalemate in Greece's case) ended dictatorships in Argentina and Greece. The regime needs to prove its inability to address a crisis.

There's a lot of stuff in The Dictator's Handbook that goes into the mechanisms behind how dictators maintain power. One of them -- which is relevant to Venezuela -- is to appeal to small bases of support instead of the wider populace.

Both Chavez and Maduro target their policies towards specific segments of the population, and towards the military appartus to maintain their support.

It's why sanctions don't really work. It targets the wrong people -- namely people going about their own business -- and does nothing to address the people in power.

Having said that, targeted sanctions may have some effectiveness, but may bring about retaliation in unexpected ways (read: Russian sanctions and their subsequent electoral meddling to get those sanctions lifted).
 

TarNaru33

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,045
No, the point is more that even when thing were THAT bad, we still had a lot of people saying we needed to do absolutely nothing- the circumstances fundamentally don't matter to a lot of people with that mentality, they just want to ostrich up. Military force would be an obviously be a ridiculous notion right now given the circumstances. But "doing nothing" isn't a good option either, because when the opposition comes to you and asks you to freeze Maduro's bank accounts- you will have to make a choice because doing nothing will be neutral, it will be actively making a choice.

Applause.

People with that mentality would wait until 90% of a population is wiped out before saying "okay, you may have somewhat of a point"

Idealists who bathe themselves in pacifism while requiring nations to be record perfect before they even consider any form of intervention just allow casualties to climb. Almost as bad as war monger imo.

China showed a good example of how you can microtarget aggressive economic actions to hit a particular social bloc. If typical US sanctions had this kind of precision people would feel a lot better about them.

Currently, the US allows for way too much collateral damage in their sanctions, which cause people to reasonably think "is this really going to help?".

A lot of this isnt true and part of the issue is that it is difficult to put sanctions on just a few people that would force the targeted nation to the table in a reasonable timeframe. Sanctions will always have some innocent people affected by it.

I can only assume with your China statement, you are referring to the tariffs on certain segments of U.S? That is literally what U.S and its allies do.

I view Churchill as a dignitary making hard decisions in absurd circumstances for the wellbeing of the proletariat, and nothing other.

Lmao what? Kirblar is right, you really do need to brush up on the topic of Churchill.
 
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Ventrue

Member
Oct 27, 2017
262
There are countless people who need our help around the world with hunger, sanitation, shelter, medicine, etc. We should help the people that are easiest to help first. Why are we so obsessed with toppling dictators for 'humanitarian' reasons when we let so many people in more agreeable nations ensure such suffering?
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,744
There are countless people who need our help around the world with hunger, sanitation, shelter, medicine, etc. We should help the people that are easiest to help first. Why are we so obsessed with toppling dictators for 'humanitarian' reasons when we let so many people in more agreeable nations ensure such suffering?
Because this one is causing a crisis for its neighbors and they want to stop the flow of refugees.
 

TarNaru33

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,045
There are countless people who need our help around the world with hunger, sanitation, shelter, medicine, etc. We should help the people that are easiest to help first. Why are we so obsessed with toppling dictators for 'humanitarian' reasons when we let so many people in more agreeable nations ensure such suffering?

On top of what Kirblar said, it's not like we have a choice of one or the other, we can and do, do both. Because of this, arguments like yours is basically just stifling action just to stifle action.

We do help the world with food, medicine, sanitation, shelter, and energy.
 

Ichthyosaurus

Banned
Dec 26, 2018
9,375
Real quick, how many people in this thread thought going into Iraq was a good idea?

This is a straw man. There is a depth to this which this isn't acknowledging, as if the only options on the table are having no wars and supporting no wars. Which untrue, were people not Sith Lords who exclusively believe in absolutes. Context matters, how a war is run matters, what the goals are matters etc.

You really need to re-examine the gap between a neoconservative and a liberal Democrat, it seems like you can't tell which is which.

I was against the Iraq war, btw.
 

Antrax

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,302
Globally, sanctions are good when actually motivated by a sense of justice,

Call me a cynic, but I generally don't believe any politician anywhere in any country if they say this nonsense. It's irrelevant anyway; the motives of a person doing a thing don't affect the morality of the thing itself. If people like Bernie Sanders want UHC because he thinks he'll get a huge statue of himself thrown up in DC over it, that's not going to stop me from advocating for more healthcare.

Now, it can affect the implementation of the action, sure. For that, you gotta pressure your leaders. With sanctions, we know that targeted sanctions actually have an effect. Russia (and Putin specifically) was and is fucking livid about the Magnitsky Act to this day because it really hampered the cash flow of some of his people. So you pressure your leaders to make sure their sanctions are targeted well so as to do the least damage to people broadly while really turning the screws on people causing the harm.
 

Driggonny

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,170
Sanctions are like the tamest thing that every country does. Why would people advocate isolationism in the face of atrocities? There's options inbetween starting needless wars and doing nothing.
 

Stinkles

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
20,459
You already encountered the win, that's why you derided. Shall we continue? This is fun. I'd rather you keep to the topic instead of personal insults though. I thought better of you honestly. Have you been drinking?

OK, so just to close out some mental housekeeping for myself, what was the "win?"

Secondly, did you mean to say "derided?" Why would I have derided anyone except the New England Patriots for a win?

Third...

Atisha said:
keep to the topic instead of personal insults though. I thought better of you honestly. Have you been drinking?

...This is almost admirable in its neat, symmetrical hypocrisy, so I assume you did it on purpose.
 

Stinkles

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
20,459
From the literature I read in grad school, sanctions tend not to work. It wasn't the sanctions that ended Apartheid, but a political awakening among South African whites and the National Party in particular backing off from their hardline stances.
.


I can't speak for the literature you read, but watching Apartheid fall live, as a young man, there was continued direct evidence, from the horse's mouth, as it were that sanctions, which had utterly strangled the South African economy, hurting of course everyone, but whites had the lion's share of the economy anyway, and the shift in attitudes and leadership were the near-direct result of financial, economic and political pressure from the left. It was visibly working in that regard. I think there's a lot of arguments about how we intervened in the economy subsequently, but there's very little evidence to suggest the white nationalist old guard were swayed by a sudden moral awakening. Bankruptcies, spoiled crops, internal dissent and a drain of rich people fleeing the nation all pushed saner voices to the top.

In fact, the biggest philosophical gulf between Botha's hardline stance and De Klerk was that De Klerk was economically liberal and in that sense, a pragmatist. He simply saw the writing on the wall - a complete collapse of the economy and social fabric or suffrage followed by slow normalization. He was almost certainly right, and Botha's preferred chosen path would have been terrifying to see played out.

The South African economy now is larger and stronger than it was then, but adjusted for inflation it should be doing better. However, the distribution of that wealth is, unsurprisingly VASTLY better and more humane than during Apartheid.
 
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Ebullientprism

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,529
I never understand how people can reconcile - A) XYZ is a terrible dictator and the people of that country have no influence on how they are governed and B) if we murder (from a lack of food or medicine as a direct result of sanction) the poor and the weak of that country, the terrible dictator will come to his senses.

I view Churchill as a dignitary making hard decisions in absurd circumstances for the wellbeing of the proletariat, and nothing other.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

"I do not admit for instance, that a great wrong has been done to the Red Indians of America or the black people of Australia. I do not admit that a wrong has been done to these people by the fact that a stronger race, a higher-grade race, a more worldly wise race to put it that way, has come in and taken their place."

"I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes,"

"I hate Indians. They are a beastly people with a beastly religion. The famine was their own fault for breeding like rabbits."
 

blinky

Attempted to circumvent ban with an alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,329
I mean, OK, but we should at least like think about this for a minute.

Let's say Assad decides in 2021 that since he won the Syrian Civil War, he has the political strength to call for wide scale ethnic cleansing against Sunni Muslims left in Syria.

Should we still just let the chips fall where they may?
By treaty, the US and other nations have an obligation to intervene to stop genocide. So no, that would not be a "chips fall where they may" situation.
 

Deleted member 48897

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 22, 2018
13,623
From the literature I read in grad school, sanctions tend not to work. It wasn't the sanctions that ended Apartheid, but a political awakening among South African whites and the National Party in particular backing off from their hardline stances.

I was going to say, sanctions haven't done much to stop the savvier-than-most-people-think North Korea whereas one important thing that got South Africa in shape was strategic acts of what would be considered terrorism by modern standards even if it was done in a way to keep civilian casualties as close to 0 as possible. Nelson Mandela wasn't thrown in prison because he was black, he was thrown in prison due to his leadership of the MK.

I was tempted to come in here and just say "nitroglycerin /thread" but I think the answer warrants at least a little more nuance and justification than that.
 

SaveWeyard

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,540
Given the fact that social science rarely has definitive answers in topics such as this (there is no counter-factual), I am going to be a little skeptical. I am sure some authors believe there was no impact, but since its so hard to separate or measure what's going inside the minds of the white elites (how can we know if they actully had a change of heart or they were hurting for money?), I am going to guess this is not something you can have a definitive answer on.
Do you allow for induction in the natural sciences, or is it just the social sciences you are skeptical of?
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,744
I was going to say, sanctions haven't done much to stop the savvier-than-most-people-think North Korea whereas one important thing that got South Africa in shape was strategic acts of what would be considered terrorism by modern standards even if it was done in a way to keep civilian casualties as close to 0 as possible. Nelson Mandela wasn't thrown in prison because he was black, he was thrown in prison due to his leadership of the MK.

I was tempted to come in here and just say "nitroglycerin /thread" but I think the answer warrants at least a little more nuance and justification than that.
In the case of a vassal state like North Korea there's very little you can actually do since they serve at the pleasure of the country backing them.