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Furukawa talks about Smash Ultimate's success; comments on 20M goal: "...a bit high, but achievable..."

foxuzamaki

foxuzamaki

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,589
He obviously has a general outline of what hes suppose to say whenever he gets the 20m question. "Its a tall order but its possible"
 
JayBee

JayBee

Alt-account
Banned
Dec 6, 2018
1,332
Said it before but if they got 10 mil out of this holiday then reaching 20 wont be so difficult. I think switch may have done really well globally
 
Mekanos

Mekanos

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 17, 2018
44,251
I've been hovering around a 15 million prediction during pre-release but 20 million from spillover is definitely possible, it seems.

Some of the 25-30 million predictions I saw on here were awfully optimistic, in so many words.
 
Piston

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,184
Is this the same interview as the previous one that said basically the same exact thing?
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Piston said:
Is this the same interview as the previous one that said basically the same exact thing?
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Yeah that's what I'm curious about. I think this was referenced in a tweet by Yuji Nakamura a few weeks ago without the additional context of "but achievable".

Unless this is a different interview.
 
ggx2ac

ggx2ac

Sales Heaven or Sales Hell?
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Oct 25, 2017
3,504
Mbolibombo

Mbolibombo

Member
Oct 29, 2017
7,043
SeanR1221 said:
I haven't been following, what's the latest on December sales???
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Dont think there's been any words post christmas.. but prior to that it looks like it's doing really well across the globe.

Benji predicted it would have the best December this generation, in Japan it's already overlast years December with 8 more days to track, in the european market we know it's been doing well in Spain and the UK but not much more than that.
 
ggx2ac

ggx2ac

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Oct 25, 2017
3,504
zakatana said:
In my opinion Q4 is going to be the critical one. Q3 was always going to be big with Smash and Pokemon.
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No.

This quarter was the critical one because Nintendo had to ship and sell-through a substantial amount of consoles, roughly 50% of their forecast. If they miss that then they aren't going to make the forecast at all.

You make it sound like things were a certainty based on hindsight for just two titles when the fact is that Nintendo had more than two software titles going on this quarter. They had multiple console bundles and Super Mario Party with Joy-Con bundles.

The next quarter is not going to be anything like that to push what could be around 3 to 4 million units of Switch hardware left to ship because it's not the critical quarter.
 
Andri

Andri

Member
Mar 20, 2018
6,017
Switzerland
zakatana said:
In my opinion Q4 is going to be the critical one. Q3 was always going to be big with Smash and Pokemon.
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But nobodyTM wants pokemon with only 151 and no battling wild pokemon, and only people who own switches will buy Smash.
It must be true because era said so.

And boy o boy, 5 million in 5 days, thats more or less the same as smash WiiU did lifetime right ?
 
Kouriozan

Kouriozan

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,175
He saw the last few weeks results and got faith again, it'll be tough but they can do it.
We heard the supply were drying up so they really can ship upto 20M total this FY to refuel everthing.
 

Deleted member 37917

Banned
Jan 10, 2018
7,207
Tokyo
ggx2ac said:
No.

This quarter was the critical one because Nintendo had to ship and sell-through a substantial amount of consoles, roughly 50% of their forecast. If they miss that then they aren't going to make the forecast at all.

You make it sound like things were a certainty based on hindsight for just two titles when the fact is that Nintendo had more than two software titles going on this quarter. They had multiple console bundles and Super Mario Party with Joy-Con bundles.

The next quarter is not going to be anything like that to push what could be around 3 to 4 million units of Switch hardware left to ship because it's not the critical quarter.
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No hindsight on my side. I've always said they'd do great during Q3.
Q4 is critical because nobody knows if NSMBU is going to push the hardware sales. Hence why many wonder if Nintendo has another big game to release for that quarter, which could allow them to clinch their prediction. Yoshi could be that game.
 
John Omaha

John Omaha

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,867
zakatana said:
No hindsight on my side. I've always said they'd do great during Q3.
Q4 is critical because nobody knows if NSMBU is going to push the hardware sales. Hence why many wonder if Nintendo has another big game to release for that quarter, which could allow them to clinch their prediction. Yoshi could be that game.
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Will people really run out and buy a Switch for Yoshi?
 
ggx2ac

ggx2ac

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Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,504
zakatana said:
Q4 is critical because nobody knows if NSMBU is going to push the hardware sales.
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If Nintendo underperform during the third quarter, then they are never going to make it to 20 million Switch units regardless of what software comes in the fourth quarter.

If there's a lack of demand in the third quarter, then retailers aren't going to take a huge shipment of Switch hardware in the fourth quarter and we'd be seeing Nintendo revise down their hardware forecast in the next earnings release.

That's what makes the third quarter the critical quarter, not the one after it.
 
Dekuman

Dekuman

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Oct 27, 2017
19,028
How much channel stuffing though!

That's the new narrative from the never 20m crowd.
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

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Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Heropon. said:
October and november NPD for US and Media Create for almost full quarter in Japan, plus some european approximative numbers.
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November NPD had it 75% up yoy. Q3 needs to be a little less than 50% up yoy to be on a decent track for the goal. I think October NPD had it 12% down but December seems to be tracking way up.

In terms of Europe all we have is the UK where it was up 50% yoy for a number of weeks around the end of November and beginning of December.

Japan is up ~7% for the FY last I saw but the biggest difference for Japan is that shipments will be way up yoy even if sell-through is only up a bit. This is because it was sold out virtually the entire FY last year so shipments equaled sell-through, where this year sell-through is a bit up while many boxes are still sitting on shelves.

So the numbers we do have seem to suggest they're doing well for Q3 but we obviously don't have enough concrete numbers to know if they're really on track.
 

Deleted member 37917

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Jan 10, 2018
7,207
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John Omaha said:
Will people really run out and buy a Switch for Yoshi?
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This kind of game may not lead to a significant spike in hardware sales, but they help sustaining or even improving the baseline. And if they're serious about reaching their sales target, it'll be a great help to complement nsmbu to have another game of Yoshi's caliber during Q4. They're gonna need a substantial sales increase as compared to last year.
I'm confident that they have something else than nsmbu before the end of March. Or else, they would have released nsmbu in February or even early March I guess.
 
Calamari41

Calamari41

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,118
zakatana said:
No hindsight on my side. I've always said they'd do great during Q3.
Q4 is critical because nobody knows if NSMBU is going to push the hardware sales. Hence why many wonder if Nintendo has another big game to release for that quarter, which could allow them to clinch their prediction. Yoshi could be that game.
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All Nintendo has to do is convince retailers that NSMBU and Smash will push hardware sales by a million or two more than last year's Q4. That's not too big of a leap for retailers to make.
 
Calamari41

Calamari41

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Oct 25, 2017
7,118
zakatana said:
I don't buy the channel stuffing theory. That would severely backfire the following year and for a very limited gain.
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It's not channel stuffing, it's forecasting what they think will be sold. A prediction going from a 3 million quarter last year to 4 or 5 this year with a 2D Mario releasing is not channel stuffing. It's entirely reasonable.

If they were able to ship 3 million off the back of Star Allies, I would say that it would actually be irresponsible to not ship a lot more than that off the back of NSMBU.
 
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