fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,998
Though I don't agree Switch will lead the market after this year. I think next gen will cause a hard large drop in sales. I think a huge part of the switch success is that current gen is stale.
It's possible but Switch's success so far has come from sectors and software largely outside what drives PS/Xbox. PS4/XBO had no real impact on Switch, or vice versa, so I'm not convinced PS5/XSX will functionally be any different. It's not the hardcore buying Switch now or in the next several years, they already bought in at this point.
 

DarthBuzzard

Banned
Jul 17, 2018
5,122
Adorable that you think VR is in any meaningful way comparable to those.
Most people who know what they're talking about would agree that VR will be a least as impactful as personal computers and would be the next stage of the Internet.

It's not like I'd expect you to understand though. You likely thought the Internet was a cute toy in the early to mid 90s.

All I can say is you're in for a shock with VR, because it's nothing like you think it is, which appears to be just a gaming toy in your mind.
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,219
I agree with Matt Piscatella the most, services will be huge going into next gen. Though I don't agree Switch will lead the market after this year. I think next gen will cause a hard large drop in sales. I think a huge part of the switch success is that current gen is stale.
PS5 and Series X are coming out next November. Switch will have the whole year to accumulate sales. It will beat both combined with its hands tied behind its back in 2020. Animal Crossing appeals to a market that isn't fully on board yet and will be a big system seller early in the year and we don't know what else they have coming yet.

If the new systems come out at $500+, the change over won't happen as fast as many are expecting.
 

JasoNsider

Developer
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
2,191
Canada
I would buy a Switch Pro before I buy a PS5. Do it, Nintendo.

While I already have a Switch, if it came down to Switch Pro or PS5 with a very small library, I'd probably get the Switch Pro. And I wouldn't be shocked to find out a lot of others feel the same. If anything, Nintendo is at a really good spot right now to capitalize on an incredible library of games and a small hardware refresh
 

Iron Eddie

Banned
Nov 25, 2019
9,812
So according them, there will be a Switch Pro in 2020. I doubt about it but OK, it will be welcome of course. Switch will be the best selling console for 2020 too, this is sure!
I expect a Switch Pro to hit in 2021 after the PS5 and Series X are out for a bit . It will be $299 or $349 at most along with upgraded online features.
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,998
Most people who know what they're talking about would agree that VR will be a least as impactful as personal computers and would be the next stage of the Internet.

It's not like I'd expect you to understand though. You likely thought the Internet was a cute toy in the early to mid 90s.

All I can say is you're in for a shock with VR, because it's nothing like you think it is, which appears to be just a gaming toy in your mind.
lol, no I had a Hotmail account in the early/mid 90s. Keep clutching to irrelevant comparisons from the ether though, you're really convincing hearts and minds with this stuff.

We'll see but it feels like we get the same song and dance with VR annually, while in reality it's a boutique niche that's driven entirely by industry feverdreams. The Quest is a hit I guess, selling worse than Wii U's first several holiday seasons, and Valve's thrown enthusiasts a lifeline with their announcements while the rest of the AAA industry retreated after the moneyhats dried up. I don't really see much hope for VR/AR until the formfactor becomes in-obtrusive enough for the massmarket and that's years away, maybe a decade even.
 

digitalrelic

Weight Loss Champion 2018: Biggest Change
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,124
Switch Pro would be amazing and I'd buy it in a heartbeat.
 

DarthBuzzard

Banned
Jul 17, 2018
5,122
lol, no I had a Hotmail account in the early/mid 90s. Keep clutching to irrelevant comparisons from the ether though, you're really convincing hearts and minds with this stuff.

We'll see but it feels like we get the same song and dance with VR annually, while in reality it's a boutique niche that's driven entirely by industry feverdreams. The Quest is a hit I guess, selling worse than Wii U's first several holiday seasons, and Valve's thrown enthusiasts a lifeline with their announcements while the rest of the AAA industry retreated after the moneyhats dried up. I don't really see much hope for VR/AR until the formfactor becomes in-obtrusive enough for the massmarket and that's years away, maybe a decade even.
Hotmail didn't start until 1996, so early 90s wouldn't be accurate.

You should have a look and see just how slow technology adoption is. It might surprise you.

PCs took a whole 20 year constant push to go fully mainstream. VR is 4 years in, and had an additional 2-3 years of consumer market presence in the 90s, which was only from small startups with no actual serious backing going on at all.

Why would you compare Wii U, an 8th generation console that released 40 years after the first console, to current headsets? Instead, lets compare what the sales of a VR headset in 2050+ is like compared to Wii U. Then we'll have a fair comparison.

Of course VR/AR won't take off until there's a much different form factor, and that will take a whole bunch of years, but this is different from saying it will never be mainstream. Not in 20 years, in 50, 100, or even a million.
 
Oct 27, 2017
9,473
I'm not sure a switch pro is possible. If it is it's going to be underwhelming compared to newer consoles. It would need more than what currently seems feasible as far as battery draw and speed at this time to be worth it as a sell to the customer base beyond the higher end market. Just doesn't seems to fall in line with Nintendo's strategy.
 
Oct 26, 2017
9,850
I agree with Matt Piscatella the most, services will be huge going into next gen. Though I don't agree Switch will lead the market after this year. I think next gen will cause a hard large drop in sales. I think a huge part of the switch success is that current gen is stale.
Considering that the Switch didn't negatively affect the PS4 / XB1 at all and is in pretty much it's own lane, I don't see why the PS5 / XBSX should have any affect on it. If it's sales go down, it'll be because of age, price, or the library no longer being able to reach more people. Not like the Switch was getting the big AAA stuff anyways. On that note, I think the Switch will be more so flat this year than go through a decline. I mean, we haven't even had a price drop yet or official bundles. Quite a few folk are still on the fence because of that
 

Kthulhu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,670
I agree with the idea that VR will carve out a niche and standalone headsets will drive it. Probably with PC/console connections as an option.

I don't think VR is the next smartphone and anyone hedging their bets on that will be disappointed.

I see VR as being like fighting or racing games. It'll be niche enough to be financially viable and be occasionally targeted by big companies, but you won't see your average Jill's and Joe's go out to preorder the next Oculus headset.

Apple will come out with AR glasses (just kidding, no they won't) - AR headsets will remain a dream for the future consumer for several more years. Without a seamless, sleek form factor and a sweet price point, general consumers will remain unaware of and uninterested in AR glasses in 2020. Even Magic Leap is starting to understand that enterprise is the place to be for MR/AR hardware manufacturers.

Big tech needs to hear this but will ignore it and those who put out hardware will look like fools. Lots of people are gonna lose their jobs.
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,998
Hotmail didn't start until 1996, so early 90s wouldn't be accurate.

You should have a look and see just how slow technology adoption is. It might surprise you.

PCs took a whole 20 year constant push to go fully mainstream. VR is 4 years in, and had an additional 2-3 years of consumer market presence in the 90s, which was only from small startups with no actual serious backing going on at all.

Why would you compare Wii U, an 8th generation console that released 40 years after the first console, to current headsets? Instead, lets compare what the sales of a VR headset in 2050+ is like compared to Wii U. Then we'll have a fair comparison.

Of course VR/AR won't take off until there's a much different form factor, and that will take a whole bunch of years, but this is different from saying it will never be mainstream. Not in 20 years, in 50, 100, or even a million.
You're right, I had an AOL email (lol). Hotmail was late 90s and early aughts.

PCs never had the massive industry backing to drive consumer potential it's first four years that VR has enjoyed. Again, these things (internet, computers, consoles, even smartphones, etc) aren't comparable because they entered the market under vastly different circumstances at much different time periods, many in an academic context first and most growing more organically from commercial bit players in the tech field or even out of people's garages initially. A better comparison for entertainment devices would be things that get a gigantic upfront push from industry titans like DVD or 3DTV for example. That's why all your comparisons so far ring hollow.
 

Josh5890

I'm Your Favorite Poster's Favorite Poster
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
23,620
At first I thought a Switch Pro was inevitable but now I'm leaning towards not happening, but I won't rule it out. I don't see them releasing it this year. I wouldn't be surprised if they just hold off until Switch 2 (or whatever they call it).
 

Zorg1000

Banned
Jul 22, 2019
1,750
I agree with Matt Piscatella the most, services will be huge going into next gen. Though I don't agree Switch will lead the market after this year. I think next gen will cause a hard large drop in sales. I think a huge part of the switch success is that current gen is stale.
Switch had great sales in 2017/2018 which were PS4's peak years so the idea that its success is related to current gen being stale doesn't add up.
 

DarthBuzzard

Banned
Jul 17, 2018
5,122
You're right, I had an AOL email (lol). Hotmail was late 90s and early aughts.

PCs never had the massive industry backing to drive consumer potential it's first four years that VR has enjoyed. Again, these things (internet, computers, consoles, even smartphones, etc) aren't comparable because they entered the market under vastly different circumstances at much different time periods, many in an academic context first and most growing more organically from commercial bit players in the tech field or even out of people's garages initially. A better comparison for entertainment devices would be things that get a gigantic upfront push from industry titans like DVD or 3DTV for example. That's why all your comparisons so far ring hollow.
PCs had huge industry backing in the 80s, and yet it didn't go fully mainstream until the early 90s, and a lot of the 80s were all about PCs for consumers, not just for academics/business.

VR is not an entertainment device. It's a computing device. It can be used as an entertainment device, but if you consider it strictly as one, then so too is a PC. Comparing it to TV modes is bizzare and makes no sense. 3D TVs are just displays with 3D capabilities, they are not an entire new concept, medium, or platform. DVD is again, just another storage category in a line of storage categories. VR is a full medium/platform in which people have largely never experienced anything like it before.

There's also the matter of 3D TVs having the opposite growth path to VR, making it even less comparable. VR always grows year to year, 3D TV declined fast.
 

DarthBuzzard

Banned
Jul 17, 2018
5,122
I agree with the idea that VR will carve out a niche and standalone headsets will drive it. Probably with PC/console connections as an option.

I don't think VR is the next smartphone and anyone hedging their bets on that will be disappointed.

I see VR as being like fighting or racing games. It'll be niche enough to be financially viable and be occasionally targeted by big companies, but you won't see your average Jill's and Joe's go out to preorder the next Oculus headset.



Big tech needs to hear this but will ignore it and those who put out hardware will look like fools. Lots of people are gonna lose their jobs.
VR is most comparable to PCs, a device which eventually gained ubiquity in the home. AR is most comparable to smartphones, a device which eventually gained ubiquity on the go as well as in the home. There's mainstream market potential for both of them.

However there's something very different this time around. They will be converging together, which means such devices have potential to be the next PC and smartphone.
 

ItchyTasty

Member
Feb 3, 2019
5,908
I expect VR and AR to keep growing

How Virtual and Augmented Reality Will Impact the Future of Conconstruction

I'll probably use VR in my line of work in the future, I think it has great potential to visualize buildings for potential buyers and to get a better feel of the building within it's surroundings. There's probably more businesses that'll benefit from VR and AR besides the gaming industry.
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,998
PCs had huge industry backing in the 80s, and yet it didn't go fully mainstream until the early 90s, and a lot of the 80s were all about PCs for consumers, not just for academics/business.

VR is not an entertainment device. It's a computing device. It can be used as an entertainment device, but if you consider it strictly as one, then so too is a PC. Comparing it to TV modes is bizzare and makes no sense. 3D TVs are just displays with 3D capabilities, they are not an entire new concept, medium, or platform. DVD is again, just another storage category in a line of storage categories. VR is a full medium/platform in which people have largely never experienced anything like it before.

There's also the matter of 3D TVs having the opposite growth path to VR, making it even less comparable. VR always grows year to year, 3D TV declined fast.
Uh, PCs were already selling big in the 80s. The market didn't really unify under one dominant standard until Windows in the 90s but that's something different. Computers also weren't primarily entertainment devices although that was a selling point, while there is academic/enterprise use to VR you *really* can't say the same for it.

And no, 3DTV was a platform (requiring unique content) and 3D display a new interface that also found it's way into phones and consoles once it hit affordable manufacturing. I only bring it up because it had the same sort of speculative industry push VR is getting (and frankly not dissimilarly unimpressive commercial results). If your complaint is it's built on an existing industry well then why are you bringing up things like consoles (they're computers) or smartphones (which are also computers and cellphones)?
 

Kthulhu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,670
VR is most comparable to PCs, a device which eventually gained ubiquity in the home. AR is most comparable to smartphones, a device which eventually gained ubiquity on the go as well as in the home. There's mainstream market potential for both of them.

However there's something very different this time around. They will be converging together, which means such devices have potential to be the next PC and smartphone.

Sorry but I don't see it happening even within the next decade. There is nothing to indicate any of that happening.

You've used the example of computers and smartphones, but there were practical applications for these devices. The barrier was price and usability.

VR for consumers doesn't really seem practical outside of entertainment purposes and so it'll probably be more common in gaming, but my parents will probably never own a headset.

AR also doesn't seem really practical for consumers outside of a few very specific uses. I think it'll do fine on phones, but I can't see a consumer AR headset taking off for a long time.
 

IIFloodyII

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,334
Kinda weird that Mat is expecting Switch to be down YoY next year.
I can see it, will probably depend on what their holiday line up is, but this year's will be hard to beat + 2 ( maybe 3) new consoles to compete with could damage it's holiday sales, which are always massive for it. Still very likely be the year's top seller comfortably though, like PS4 was after the Switch for a couple years.
 

DarthBuzzard

Banned
Jul 17, 2018
5,122
Uh, PCs were already selling big in the 80s. The market didn't really unify under one dominant standard until Windows in the 90s but that's something different. Computers also weren't primarily entertainment devices although that was a selling point, while there is academic/enterprise use to VR you *really* can't say the same for it.

And no, 3DTV was a platform (requiring unique content) and 3D display a new interface that also found it's way into phones and consoles once it hit affordable manufacturing. I only bring it up because it had the same sort of speculative industry push VR is getting (and frankly not dissimilarly unimpressive commercial results). If your complaint is it's built on an existing industry well then why are you bringing up things like consoles (they're computers) or smartphones (which are also computers and cellphones)?
PCs were starting to take off in the late 80s, but they did not go mainstream until the early 90s. That explosive process of vertical take-off still takes years. This isn't about standards, it's about sales.

I actually can say the same for VR. You just don't seem to understand it despite claiming to be knowledgeable on VR. VR for consumers can be used as a tool in many ways. Like PCs, it can be used for computing work, for socializing, for skill training and learning, and for visiting real world places. The majority of what I described is not necessarily focused on entertainment, but rather using VR as a tool.

There are people who take virtual classes to learn how to dance, DJ, do yoga, attend lectures from science professors, and so on. It seems you never thought of this occurring.

3D TVs are not a platform because it is an additional mode to an already existing platform. Yes, you need to build specific displays to do this, but the point is that the end result is still, a TV; the change is incredibly small. Bringing 3D TVs up doesn't work in 2020, as the 4 year mark of 3D TVs was in serious decline that never stopped, but VR has never been in a better position.

Consoles act very differently to PCs; they cannot do most of what PCs do, and are designed around games; they are not meant for the tooled use of PCs.
Smartphones are mobile and have an entirely different interface to PCs with lots of new usecases, which makes them again different.
Smartphones are also very different to mobile phones, because mobile phones have a different interface unless you refer to modern mobile phones as smartphones as the words have become mixed these days.
 

DarthBuzzard

Banned
Jul 17, 2018
5,122
Sorry but I don't see it happening even within the next decade. There is nothing to indicate any of that happening.

You've used the example of computers and smartphones, but there were practical applications for these devices. The barrier was price and usability.

VR for consumers doesn't really seem practical outside of entertainment purposes and so it'll probably be more common in gaming, but my parents will probably never own a headset.

AR also doesn't seem really practical for consumers outside of a few very specific uses. I think it'll do fine on phones, but I can't see a consumer AR headset taking off for a long time.
Are you saying VR isn't practical at all outside of entertainment purposes? It's already being used by consumers for non-entertainment applications.

Now we can agree that it's largely not practical, but we'd also have to be agreeing that PCs were not largely practical as a tool until the 80s, because most consumers in the 70s were barely able to comprehend how to use one, and those that did often had no idea what the point was to PCs. Back then, people thought it would be used to store recipes and you were laughed at for thinking it would be a big deal..

AR has even more practical use than VR, even I can admit that. It's all a ways off to be truly feasible, so if that's your main point, then I agree.
 

Kthulhu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,670
Are you saying VR isn't practical at all outside of entertainment purposes? It's already being used by consumers for non-entertainment applications.

Now we can agree that it's largely not practical, but we'd also have to be agreeing that PCs were not largely practical as a tool until the 80s, because most consumers in the 70s were barely able to comprehend how to use one, and those that did often had no idea what the point was to PCs. Back then, people thought it would be used to store recipes and you were laughed at for thinking it would be a big deal.

AR has even more practical use than VR, even I can admit that. It's all a ways off to be truly feasible, so if that's your main point, then I agree.

I certainly haven't seen any consumer usage that comes even close to gaming or other forms of entertainment.
 

DarthBuzzard

Banned
Jul 17, 2018
5,122
I certainly haven't seen any consumer usage that comes even close to gaming or other forms of entertainment.
If you're talking about today's numbers, sure. I just hope you're not talking about what it can provide as it advances, because a lot of people have the idea that VR is solely going to be for entertainment when that couldn't be further from the truth.
 

Kthulhu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,670
If you're talking about today's numbers, sure. I just hope you're not talking about what it can provide as it advances, because a lot of people have the idea that VR is solely going to be for entertainment when that couldn't be further from the truth.

That's pretty speculative thought.

If we're sticking with the PC analogy, then in the 80s PCs could be used for desktop publishing, some 3D graphics, writing, spreadsheets, games, and communication.

VR isn't nearly as versatile. It's great for entertainment and simulation, okay at communication and 3D modeling, and kinda meh at just about everything else.

Part of it I think is just the nature of the tech. I can't see anyone developing the next Facebook while wearing a VR headset, or someone editing the footage for a blockbuster film (unless 360 footage blows up). Part of that is a resolution and comfort issue, but even beyond that I don't really see how VR makes it much better.

I do see a more enterprises adopting VR but not at the level of laptops and smartphones.
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,998
PCs were starting to take off in the late 80s, but they did not go mainstream until the early 90s. That explosive process of vertical take-off still takes years. This isn't about standards, it's about sales.

I actually can say the same for VR. You just don't seem to understand it despite claiming to be knowledgeable on VR. VR for consumers can be used as a tool in many ways. Like PCs, it can be used for computing work, for socializing, for skill training and learning, and for visiting real world places. The majority of what I described is not necessarily focused on entertainment, but rather using VR as a tool.

There are people who take virtual classes to learn how to dance, DJ, do yoga, attend lectures from science professors, and so on. It seems you never thought of this occurring.

3D TVs are not a platform because it is an additional mode to an already existing platform. Yes, you need to build specific displays to do this, but the point is that the end result is still, a TV; the change is incredibly small. Bringing 3D TVs up doesn't work in 2020, as the 4 year mark of 3D TVs was in serious decline that never stopped, but VR has never been in a better position.

Consoles act very differently to PCs; they cannot do most of what PCs do, and are designed around games; they are not meant for the tooled use of PCs.
Smartphones are mobile and have an entirely different interface to PCs with lots of new usecases, which makes them again different.
Smartphones are also very different to mobile phones, because mobile phones have a different interface unless you refer to modern mobile phones as smartphones as the words have become mixed these days.
PCs were already huge in the 80s and selling millions annually. The issue was there were tons of standards and vendors but the idea that they weren't mainstream in the 1980s (particularly in Europe) isn't grounded at all. Also a console is just a computer that's closed and only (or at least primarily) plays games. Some computers even had consolized variants like C64, CD32, FM Towns, MSX, etc. Hell if something like the MSX came out today people would just call it a console, these two industries aren't as neatly segregated as you seem to think. Likewise the rise of smartphones and related devices was precisely because they functionally replaced computers for many.

I'm less interested in the nitpicking of the nature these other devices and fields though, the real point is none of your examples had the sort upfront investment, promotion and backing that VR did, so any direct comparison is inherently faulty. It's the basic reason your argument collapses in on itself using them.
 

DarthBuzzard

Banned
Jul 17, 2018
5,122
That's pretty speculative thought.

If we're sticking with the PC analogy, then in the 80s PCs could be used for desktop publishing, some 3D graphics, writing, spreadsheets, games, and communication.

VR isn't nearly as versatile. It's great for entertainment and simulation, okay at communication and 3D modeling, and kinda meh at just about everything else.

Part of it I think is just the nature of the tech. I can't see anyone developing the next Facebook while wearing a VR headset, or someone editing the footage for a blockbuster film (unless 360 footage blows up). Part of that is a resolution and comfort issue, but even beyond that I don't really see how VR makes it much better.

I do see a more enterprises adopting VR but not at the level of laptops and smartphones.
VR today can be used for desktop publishing, true scale 3D graphics, writing, spreadsheets, games, communication, and more.

I basically just listed everything that PCs did back then, because VR can fully emulate that experience, arguably in the best way possible with seemingly infinite computing space.

If we have a device that does everything a PC does, but more, surely it's more versatile? It's early days so a lot of this isn't practical and I wouldn't advise people to really work in VR yet, but in 5-10 years as the interface/display gets better, I can see it being the best way to work, to consume media, to communicate with AR overlapping as well depending on usecase/preferences.

It's strange that you say VR is okay at communication. What is the level for PCs then, outright bad? I mean modern messaging, voice chat, and video calls do not hold a candle to social VR even in it's primitive days.

FYI, people do develop applications in VR today and you can be sure plenty more will follow as it becomes more feasible. People also edit footage in VR, and I can once again see this being the best and most efficient way to do so.
 

Kthulhu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,670
VR today can be used for desktop publishing, true scale 3D graphics, writing, spreadsheets, games, communication, and more.

I basically just listed everything that PCs did back then, because VR can fully emulate that experience, arguably in the best way possible with seemingly infinite computing space.

If we have a device that does everything a PC does, but more, surely it's more versatile? It's early days so a lot of this isn't practical and I wouldn't advise people to really work in VR yet, but in 5-10 years as the interface/display gets better, I can see it being the best way to work, to consume media, to communicate with AR overlapping as well depending on usecase/preferences.

It's strange that you say VR is okay at communication. What is the level for PCs then, outright bad? I mean modern messaging, voice chat, and video calls do not hold a candle to social VR even in it's primitive days.

FYI, people do develop applications in VR today and you can be sure plenty more will follow as it becomes more feasible. People also edit footage in VR, and I can once again see this being the best and most efficient way to do so.

"Can do" and "does well" are very different things.

Can I write a novel while wearing a VR headset? Sure, but I can also do that with a stone tablet. Doesn't make it a good idea.

Yeah I'd say social VR in terms of convenience doesn't hold a candle to FaceTime or Skype. Typing takes way longer and no one wants to put on a headset every time they want to talk to someone for a few minutes.

And again, I'm not seeing how editing video of writing or any of those other things would get better even once headsets get more comfortable and have a higher resolution. It seems like it'd make work more tedious and provide little benefit for most work.

Are there practical applications for work? Absolutely, some we don't even know yet. Is VR a general computing device on the level of PCs and phones? Not at this stage, that's for sure.
 

DarthBuzzard

Banned
Jul 17, 2018
5,122
PCs were already huge in the 80s and selling millions annually. The issue was there were tons of standards and vendors but the idea that they weren't mainstream in the 1980s (particularly in Europe) isn't grounded at all. Also a console is just a computer that's closed and only (or at least primarily) plays games. Some computers even had consolized variants like C64, CD32, FM Towns, MSX, etc. Hell if something like the MSX came out today people would just call it a console, these two industries aren't as neatly segregated as you seem to think. Likewise the rise of smartphones and related devices was precisely because the functionally replaced computers for many.

I'm less interested in the nitpicking of the nature these other devices and fields though, the real point is none of your examples had the upfront investment, promotion and backing that VR did, so a direct comparison is inherently faulty. It's the basic reason your argument collapses in on itself using them.
Selling millions annually is not the same as going mainstream. VR sells millions annually, and even if that were to quadruple it still wouldn't be mainstream because it takes a significantly large amount of sales to get there.

A console is sold to a consumer as a gaming device, not as a computing device. It's not closed for no apparent reason; it's closed because that's a technological choice in order to allow it's own form factor, system software, game optimization capabilities.

The 70s actually had the likes of Apple, IBM, and Commodores manufacturing PCs. While it's true that this is not the same as Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Sony, Samsung and such backing VR in the 2010s, that is not the only metric for market growth as technological progression and simple laws of physics is itself a metric. Besides, VR in comparison to 70s PCs has actually done considerably better in sales numbers.
 

Cantaim

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,552
The Stussining
Really curious to see how game streaming services go with the next console launches. Im expecting good growth but I don't think it'll be explosive.
 

DarthBuzzard

Banned
Jul 17, 2018
5,122
"Can do" and "does well" are very different things.

Can I write a novel while wearing a VR headset? Sure, but I can also do that with a stone tablet. Doesn't make it a good idea.

Yeah I'd say social VR in terms of convenience doesn't hold a candle to FaceTime or Skype. Typing takes way longer and no one wants to put on a headset every time they want to talk to someone for a few minutes.

And again, I'm not seeing how editing video of writing or any of those other things would get better even once headsets get more comfortable and have a higher resolution. It seems like it'd make work more tedious and provide little benefit for most work.

Are there practical applications for work? Absolutely, some we don't even know yet. Is VR a general computing device on the level of PCs and phones? Not at this stage, that's for sure.
Saying that example is not a good idea is a bit bizzare. You'd be using virtual screens and keyboard/mice as usual. A stone tablet is limited by it's interface. VR can add to the PC interface by allowing for what's known as spatial computing. A lot of novelists need focus as they write, inspiration even. Both can be gained through VR simultaneously. It's a great way to get rid of real world distractions and focus solely on the work before you.

Convenience of social VR is surely behind but the quality it offers for socializing is leagues ahead. You need to be a bit more specific if you're going to define it in one word. However it seems like you don't actually understand what social VR means. People are not exactly typing in the first place.

For editing video, you simply have more computing space and can be distract-free if need be. Depending on how involved your video editing is, you may even need to step inside your video, if it's CGI for example. Recent CGI movies have started doing this, like the Lion King, Rogue One, John Wick 3, Ready Player One.

This all becomes much clearer if you have a headset that can switch between VR/AR on a whim and blend the two, which will become apparent in the early to mid 2020s.
 

Kthulhu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,670
Saying that example is not a good idea is a bit bizzare. You'd be using virtual screens and keyboard/mice as usual. A stone tablet is limited by it's interface. VR can add to the PC interface by allowing for what's known as spatial computing. A lot of novelists need focus as they write, inspiration even. Both can be gained through VR simultaneously. It's a great way to get rid of real world distractions and focus solely on the work before you.

Convenience of social VR is surely behind but the quality it offers for socializing is leagues ahead. You need to be a bit more specific if you're going to define it in one word. However it seems like you don't actually understand what social VR means. People are not exactly typing in the first place.

For editing video, you simply have more computing space and can be distract-free if need be. Depending on how involved your video editing is, you may even need to step inside your video, if it's CGI for example. Recent CGI movies have started doing this, like the Lion King, Rogue One, John Wick 3, Ready Player One.

This all becomes much clearer if you have a headset that can switch between VR/AR on a whim and blend the two, which will become apparent in the early to mid 2020s.

A VR keyboard would be impractical without hardware in the real world. At which point I'd say why use a headset instead of a computer? Unlimited monitors doesn't really matter much as even with a higher resolution headset display you're behind what'd be possible with a physical monitor. So if your work benefits from a higher resolution display a headset won't give you what you want.

By social VR I mean stuff like VR Chat or Facebook's failed Spaces app. That isn't as easy or convenient as Skype or FaceTime for quick communication with loved ones or co-workers. It's great for strangers or hanging out, but not for impromptu meetings or just checking in on someone.


3D modeling and animation in some cases might be helped with VR, but VFX, compositing, and timeline editing aren't really helped and in some cases at a disadvantage thanks to the overhead from using VR.
 

DarthBuzzard

Banned
Jul 17, 2018
5,122
A VR keyboard would be impractical without hardware in the real world. At which point I'd say why use a headset instead of a computer? Unlimited monitors doesn't really matter much as even with a higher resolution headset display you're behind what'd be possible with a physical monitor. So if your work benefits from a higher resolution display a headset won't give you what you want.

By social VR I mean stuff like VR Chat or Facebook's failed Spaces app. That isn't as easy or convenient as Skype or FaceTime for quick communication with loved ones or co-workers. It's great for strangers or hanging out, but not for impromptu meetings or just checking in on someone.


3D modeling and animation in some cases might be helped with VR, but VFX, compositing, and timeline editing aren't really helped and in some cases at a disadvantage thanks to the overhead from using VR.
As I said, you'd be using VR for the infinite computing space it offers, the distraction free opportunities, and the ability to more easily visualize information that could be useful for your work.

Here's a working example work today. Varjo XR-1, a VR/AR hybrid that can output a small central spot of high density pixels, specifically the same perceivable as a 4K monitor. Yes, I just said the same as a 4K monitor. Not so behind now, huh? It's essentially the same as 6000x6000 pixel displays in today's headsets, one for each eye.This is what working in Unity is like without it even being designed for this usecase:



Of course social VR is not meant for quick 2 minute chats/meetings, however it is still the most social way to communicate using technology, because it's the most human. That is what will give it a big edge as it advances more and more. Humans by nature want to spend lots of time with other humans, not just for quick chats.
 

Kthulhu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,670
As I said, you'd be using VR for the infinite computing space it offers, the distraction free opportunities, and the ability to more easily visualize information that could be useful for your work.

Here's a working example work today. Varjo XR-1, a VR/AR hybrid that can output a small central spot of high density pixels, specifically the same perceivable as a 4K monitor. Yes, I just said the same as a 4K monitor. Not so behind now, huh? It's essentially the same as 6000x6000 pixel displays in today's headsets, one for each eye.This is what working in Unity is like without it even being designed for this usecase:



Of course social VR is not meant for quick 2 minute chats/meetings, however it is still the most social way to communicate using technology, because it's the most human. That is what will give it a big edge as it advances more and more. Humans by nature want to spend lots of time with other humans, not just for quick chats.


How is it any more distraction free than a normal computer? You're still getting pinged with notifications and experience FOMO. And again there is not tactility without a physical keyboard and mouse.

That headset costs 10,000 euros, and even if it didn't it's probably not color accurate so it's basically useless for video editors. By the time it's cheap enough for most people and businesses there will be 8k monitors. Plus you need way more computing power to render the same stuff twice and for something reliant on performance it'll require more expensive hardware.

People may want to spend a lot of time with each other but that doesn't mean they always can or will. Hence the popularity of quick video calls and text messages. A VR hangout might make sense if you've got time to kill and you're unable to hang out with someone, but for short conversations it's not ideal.
 

DarthBuzzard

Banned
Jul 17, 2018
5,122
How is it any more distraction free than a normal computer? You're still getting pinged with notifications and experience FOMO. And again there is not tactility without a physical keyboard and mouse.

That headset costs 10,000 euros, and even if it didn't it's probably not color accurate so it's basically useless for video editors. By the time it's cheap enough for most people and businesses there will be 8k monitors. Plus you need way more computing power to render the same stuff twice and for something reliant on performance it'll require more expensive hardware.

People may want to spend a lot of time with each other but that doesn't mean they always can or will. Hence the popularity of quick video calls and text messages. A VR hangout might make sense if you've got time to kill and you're unable to hang out with someone, but for short conversations it's not ideal.
Your environment and ultimately visual stimuli in the periphery is a large factor for concentration. There is a reason why people sometimes like to go outside to work, because they find it relaxing, and while you can't get that sensation of wind or temperature, it's long been proven that visual stimulation is more than enough to put people into a certain mindset.

In other words, loading up a relaxing forest environment or other safespace to work in will be enticing to plenty of people. I did say you'd be using a keyboard and mouse by the way, and I meant physical. They'd be scanned in automatically in real-time by the HMD.

Color accurate in what sense by the way? It uses Micro-OLED displays, so it has a great color gamut. By the time there are 8K monitors, there will be no where left to improve, because the human eye cannot see beyond that unless you need to zoom in for greater detail VR will be able to catch up for that reason. Most people won't even see a benefit beyond 6K, let alone 8K.

VR will actually require less computing power than traditional displays as time goes on, so you'd be wrong there. See here:



Besides if we're talking about virtual displays and nothing else, it takes nothing to render those. Most Steam users could run 8K virtual monitors in VR easily today. No, you couldn't do 8K gaming for modern games, but for programming and such? Easily.

If people are not spending as much time together as they'd want because they can''t, think about why they can't? Time, money, lack of mobility. Things that VR can largely step in for.
 
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