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The problem is that they really dont have must play games (imo) and if they do release one, people can play them on pc.
It doesn't help that some of the games they do release, whilst showing promise, are released in pretty sorry states. Sorry states aren't uncommon in the game industry (AAA) but when two of your flagship titles, Halo and Forza are released as they were - barebones or/and buggy it makes people hesitant and wary.
It's no secret that they have had issues developing and releasing first party titles (as is the acquisitions to try and rectify that), but it really doesn't help when they do come along (add Redfall) they are released in the way they are. It's a double punch of waiting a long time for games to arrive and then finding they don't meet expectations.
I think there are lot of potential Xbox owners, but with how entrenched Sony and Nintendo are, and with the introduction of the likes of Steam Deck (and other pc tablets) and VR, the gaming space is a lot smaller for Microsoft. Companion consoles and gaming has changed a lot in the last 5 years. Then there is potentially Apple coming into, especially if they bring their Chip to Apple TV's.
As it I been close to buying a Xbox series s or X over the last couple of weeks. Despite the Myriad of issues, Forza is speaking to me, and so is Halo off the back of the good work that has gone into it. Still havnt pulled the trigger yet.