I wouldn't recommend the Switch due to the drifting issue and very expensive games.
Right now PlayStation only beats Xbox on exclusive games, and casuals usually care more about sports games, CoD and that kind of stuff anyways.
On Xbox, they can try hundreds of games for very little money, which for someone who doesn't follow gaming too much is an amazing experience. They don't have to go to the store and wonder what's cool, where to spend their money, they can instead try so many games just because they like the cover or the description or someone said it's good. Plus they can play with PC friends and the Series S is fantastic for people who don't want to spend a lot of money on hardware, you can tell it was designed specifically for that audience. Small, discrete hardware vs the massive PS5 also matters to a lot of casuals.
Cinephiles might not enjoy Netflix because they'll miss stuff, but it's perfect for a casual viewer who will always have lots of stuff to try when they just feel like watching something. That's what Gamepass gives you, any genre and it's there represented on excellent games, now they also have pretty much every major sports title, which is important to many casuals. Additionally, they can play on their tablets, soon browsers, smartphones, soon TVs and the console won't be even necessary anymore.
Think about it, you are watching the NBA finals and Microsoft shows you a commercial telling you that you can play any sport game from that year from your smart TV for only $15 per month, with lots of games for your little kids, your teeenager kids... In two or three years, you may be able to buy a controller with a bundled subscription and that's it instead of needing a console. How popular could a present like that get on Christmas?
At this point anyone who doesn't think Microsoft will obliterate the casual market unless Sony or Nintendo change radically are lying to themselves, imo.