One of our TV channels is broadcasting a 3 part documentary filmed over the last 8 months inside the US embassy in the UK. People have mistaken it for a comedy, with the US ambassador's only qualification being an $18 million donation to Trump.
The two people giving the briefing are Thomas Williams, Minister Counselor for Political Affairs, and Seneca Johnson, Deputy head of Economic Affairs. The guy being briefed is Michael Huerta, head of the Federal Aviation Administration, come to talk to the UK government about how US airlines will be able to operate within the UK come Brexit.
HUERTA: Aviation and aerospace is 5% of our GDP. The UK is a huge chunk of that. With the UK exiting, their status under the European safety agreement evaporates. So something needs to be in place.
WOODY (US ambassador): So, how does this impact ticketing? Can travel agents do their business out past '19, March '19?
HUERTA: Generally the airlines run their schedules 6 months out. If they don't know what the future state is going to look like, it's very hard for them to sell tickets. So it's a pretty big deal.
WOODY: No, it's a very large deal. You know, it's a given that we all can buy, we go down online, we buy our ticket and we go wherever we want. But you can't take that for granted. That may not happen unless this is elevated. And this is like a basic thing. I mean, it's like driving your car.
HUERTA: I think there is concern on industry's part here that this is not high enough on the agenda for the department of exiting the EU and that it needs to be elevated so that they can have the certainty they're looking for.
WOODY: Well then, you've gotta have a real good lever for elevation, and you've gotta figure out what new lever you can pull.
NARRATOR: With hundreds of billion of dollars at stake, the US must put pressure on the UK to face the problem. To secure American interests, the embassy has teams of political officers, experts on the British economy and Westminster. They brief Michael and his team on their inside view of Brexit and its likely impact.
HUERTA: Do you think that the public has a clear notion of what the conditions of exit actually are?
WILLIAMS: I think the public is sceptical because right after the vote, people told them "abandon all hope, ye who have voted for Brexit because everything is going to fall apart", and yet the numbers keep coming up. So right now people are like "I've got a job", they're almost at a full employment economy, wages are pretty good, people are out there spending for Christmas and the holidays. People haven't yet internalised "the economy is going to tank, I better sit on my cash".
The EU27 says "We're a club, here are our rules. You tell us how many of the rules you're prepared to accept and we'll kinda tell you where in the clubhouse you can go". That is not the British conception of what this is at all. They sort of see it as a negotiation between two equal parties. But the British government is not interested in telling people "you know, this thing that 52% of you said that you wanted, here are the range of options: there's less good, and then there's very very bad".
They haven't actually done a lot of macroeconomic modelling of this, almost like deliberately, like "We don't want to know, because leaving is going to be great, and it's what people voted for, so let's not spend government money on analysis that suggests maybe people got it wrong".
JOHNSON: Y'know, growth is starting to slow down but what we're probably going to see is a longer-term slower slide of lower economic growth. Inflation went up from 0.5% to 3%, so it's quite a significant increase and that's not inflation from a growing bubbly economy, that's inflation from an outside shock, so that's the worst kind of inflation. That's going to be a problem. This is coming at the end of a long period of austerity. People are very, very tired of it. They're very frustrated by it. And some of those longer-term economic issues are some of the things that fuelled Brexit. So if Brexit ends up not helping them, or not obviously helping people economically, that could have political knock-on effects.
WILLIAMS: But if, I think, the economy sinks then that's going to put political pressure on the government. And for the people that voted to leave, they are terrified because this is something they've been fighting to achieve for almost 40 years. I mean, it's a generational struggle. They've now won, and they're absolutely terrified that it's going to be snatched away from them.
The two people giving the briefing are Thomas Williams, Minister Counselor for Political Affairs, and Seneca Johnson, Deputy head of Economic Affairs. The guy being briefed is Michael Huerta, head of the Federal Aviation Administration, come to talk to the UK government about how US airlines will be able to operate within the UK come Brexit.
HUERTA: Aviation and aerospace is 5% of our GDP. The UK is a huge chunk of that. With the UK exiting, their status under the European safety agreement evaporates. So something needs to be in place.
WOODY (US ambassador): So, how does this impact ticketing? Can travel agents do their business out past '19, March '19?
HUERTA: Generally the airlines run their schedules 6 months out. If they don't know what the future state is going to look like, it's very hard for them to sell tickets. So it's a pretty big deal.
WOODY: No, it's a very large deal. You know, it's a given that we all can buy, we go down online, we buy our ticket and we go wherever we want. But you can't take that for granted. That may not happen unless this is elevated. And this is like a basic thing. I mean, it's like driving your car.
HUERTA: I think there is concern on industry's part here that this is not high enough on the agenda for the department of exiting the EU and that it needs to be elevated so that they can have the certainty they're looking for.
WOODY: Well then, you've gotta have a real good lever for elevation, and you've gotta figure out what new lever you can pull.
NARRATOR: With hundreds of billion of dollars at stake, the US must put pressure on the UK to face the problem. To secure American interests, the embassy has teams of political officers, experts on the British economy and Westminster. They brief Michael and his team on their inside view of Brexit and its likely impact.
HUERTA: Do you think that the public has a clear notion of what the conditions of exit actually are?
WILLIAMS: I think the public is sceptical because right after the vote, people told them "abandon all hope, ye who have voted for Brexit because everything is going to fall apart", and yet the numbers keep coming up. So right now people are like "I've got a job", they're almost at a full employment economy, wages are pretty good, people are out there spending for Christmas and the holidays. People haven't yet internalised "the economy is going to tank, I better sit on my cash".
The EU27 says "We're a club, here are our rules. You tell us how many of the rules you're prepared to accept and we'll kinda tell you where in the clubhouse you can go". That is not the British conception of what this is at all. They sort of see it as a negotiation between two equal parties. But the British government is not interested in telling people "you know, this thing that 52% of you said that you wanted, here are the range of options: there's less good, and then there's very very bad".
They haven't actually done a lot of macroeconomic modelling of this, almost like deliberately, like "We don't want to know, because leaving is going to be great, and it's what people voted for, so let's not spend government money on analysis that suggests maybe people got it wrong".
JOHNSON: Y'know, growth is starting to slow down but what we're probably going to see is a longer-term slower slide of lower economic growth. Inflation went up from 0.5% to 3%, so it's quite a significant increase and that's not inflation from a growing bubbly economy, that's inflation from an outside shock, so that's the worst kind of inflation. That's going to be a problem. This is coming at the end of a long period of austerity. People are very, very tired of it. They're very frustrated by it. And some of those longer-term economic issues are some of the things that fuelled Brexit. So if Brexit ends up not helping them, or not obviously helping people economically, that could have political knock-on effects.
WILLIAMS: But if, I think, the economy sinks then that's going to put political pressure on the government. And for the people that voted to leave, they are terrified because this is something they've been fighting to achieve for almost 40 years. I mean, it's a generational struggle. They've now won, and they're absolutely terrified that it's going to be snatched away from them.
