Is there a possibility that the Activision deal only comes through, if MS commits to not make their games exclusive? Article inside

Blindman · Jan 19, 2022

Is there a possibility that the Activision deal only comes through, if MS commits to not make their games exclusive?

Would regulators make a stipulation that MS keep games multiplatform for the deal to go through, sure anything is possible.

Regardless, Microsoft should buy Activision so they can keep the games in their streaming portfolio.

Now the bigger question would be, would MS have to share Activision portfolio of games in the streaming sector?

Well, regulators would have to first convince Netflix to release Squid Game on Hulu.

iksenpets · Jan 19, 2022

They will point to PC and Cloud availability to counter any claim that they're restricting access. Going to be hard for a judge to look at these games running via cloud on a phone or a netbook window and say MS is restricting access by not making native versions for a $500 piece of enthusiast hardware. They'll point to their pretty public offers to put that exact service on Playstation. They'll point to the fact that for 99% of consumers, everyone except the guy who has a Playstation but no PC or phone or tablet, they're going to make playing these games cheaper not more expensive. They'll point to the fact that every game they're taking off Playstation has a successful direct competitor still available there, and the ample number of still independent developers and publishers available to enter any gaps in the market they may create. I really don't think they have any regulatory fear barring a significant upheaval in American understanding of what constitutes anti-trust.

The only way those games end up on Playstation is if they run the numbers and amount of dollars spent on Playstation versions of them, minus the number of dollars they expect to just migrate to Xbox or PC, is too big a pill to swallow. But MS is a company that can swallow virtually any pill, and they've already proved their willingness to do so taking Starfield exclusive.

Tigerfish419 · Jan 19, 2022

Firmus_Anguis said:
Why are you arguing with me about monopolies and anti-trust...? Me not liking it, doesn't mean that I think it isn't viable. I know it is.

That part wasn't to you, it was repsonding in general, sorry I should've made that clear.

Firmus_Anguis said:
And what a joke of an argument, I'm pretty sure lots of people chose PlayStation as their place to play CoD, millions in fact. They spent 500 bucks on their CHOICE. So of course it sucks for them! Pinning it on them is so fucking weird to me. They have every right to be disappointed by this.

Yeah the thing is they can still play it without buying another $500 console, actually this deal will make it cheaper for these people because the game will be on Game Pass. You can play the game on tablets, mobiles, laptops, pc, console and on a streaming stick soon enough, so yeah I don't feel sorry for these people who will never play their games again because it's not on a single platform they don't want to budge from, because it's a self imposed issue. Yes it does suck if you plan on playing it on PS5 but it's not like you can't play it at all.

My issue is people who won't play the games ever again just because it's not on PlayStation but they love the franchise, because that's just dumb and it's silly to have loyalty to a single platform that you will stop playing games you love because it's not on said platform imo. I have no issue with people who hate this move but will continue to play their favoruite game on whatever platform they pick.

Pai Pai Master · Jan 19, 2022

Microsoft's entire strategy revolves around securing these IPs as exclusive but they can still skirt regulations and not piss people off because, according to them, the games are available on "every device" (with a web browser). They also publish on Steam on PC so they are not forcing PC users to buy from their storefront.

Microsoft has done this for decades, they know exactly what they need to do to make big industry moves while avoiding overzealous regulations.

Tigerfish419 · Jan 19, 2022

LavaBadger said:
They put their games on PC, including on the largest PC gaming marketplace, which they do not own.

I would argue that putting their games on cloud streaming is bigger than even this because almost any device that has a screen and internet connection in future will be able to play the games and all these devices would be from a ton of different makers.

LavaBadger · Jan 19, 2022

Tigerfish419 said:
I would argue that putting their games on cloud streaming is bigger than even this because almost any device that has a screen and internet connection in future will be able to play the games and all these devices would be from a ton of different makers.

It definitely goes toward their arguments, which I think is where point 4 comes in.

I do think these are different things though. One is MS opening their own ecosystem (Windows) to others to sell things on their own terms (Steam, Epic Store, etc) and then further saying, "Feel free to sell our IP too."

Gamepass requires that other platforms open up their ecosystems to them, or completely bypasses the platform owners, and doesn't allow the owners to sell it themselves. Gamepass allows MS to have total control over the games whereas Steam requires MS let go of some of that control (And profit).

Now, maybe it's unfair of me to say, but I bet this nuance would be lost on most regulators, and the argument, ,"You can play on anything!" probably would go over quite well.

RoastBeeph · Jan 19, 2022

Yeah this is a pipe dream, not happening, not when AFTER this deal, Microsoft is still smaller than Sony in the gaming space, are third overall.

in the unlikely scenario where MS is forced to bring games to PlayStation, you can bet they will spend way less time and resources on the Playstetion version, might even make them just PS4 only, no next gen version.

deathsaber · Jan 19, 2022

They have already said that regulators (given how little resistance was given to the Bethesda deal) will likely also not raise any voice to MS acquiring Activision, even with this one being a bigger money deal.
.
This is because Microsoft is a Hardware/platform maker and Activision is software development- they are different things and its normal for hardware platform companies to make exclusive arrangements with software companies to make content for their platform.

The only slight stickiness there is that MS is also in game development, but reality is thats such a small piece of their biz that MS and Activision were never really considered to be competing with each other in terms of software.

What WOULD be problematic, for example, might be a scenerio where Microsoft acquires Nintendo, with intent of taking their hardware off the market, all Nintendo games/IPs are now Xbox exclusives, and then this would be a big push to take down Sony. This would create significantly less choice for consumers when it would come to game consoles and would meet a lot of resistance from regulators, accordingly, if it were to happen.

Powerofthecloud · Jan 19, 2022

Garulon said:
So this means regulators can also force Sony to publish Last of Us on XBox as they have the majority console share?

Lol exactly. This whole thread is based off some "analysis" from some random site. I'm not even sure how this thread is still open.

Shatty McKracken · Jan 19, 2022

I don't think so.
It appears Microsoft is following the Disney model. If Disney has been able to buy up everything with little resistance then why not Microsoft ?

DanteSparda504 · Jan 19, 2022

Gaming is so big, and new developers and publishers are being created and rising. Nothing will come between this deal and Microsoft doesn't need to agree to anything to make it work. It's not even remotely close to a monopoly or an issue like some of the weirdos here like to think it is.

All this does, is allow some of the smaller and upcoming publishers to make the next step up. It'd be no different if Activision just decided to shut their doors for good one day.

Replicant · Jan 19, 2022

The games would also support PC and mobile so that is not exclusive to Xbox.

Tmespe · Jan 19, 2022

Does it even matter that much? If the games are not exclusive but you have to pay 80$ on PlayStation vs free with gamepass, the value proposition speaks for itself.

onesvenus · Jan 19, 2022

ginger ninja said:
The huge analysis in the OP by an outside firm says otherwise. But we will just wait for the feds to decide this. More than likely its gonna go thru but I can totally see some hiccups.

No, it doesn't say it's a monopoly, it says the deal will be closely examined, nothing more.

Bman94 · Jan 19, 2022

If they aren't going for exclusives it's a waste of money then. They'd be better off doing a Gamepass deal like EA Play if that was the case.

Jaded Alyx · Jan 19, 2022

Vintage said:
3. Mainline Elder Scrolls/Fallout are definitely coming to Playstation.

Goodness me, when does this end?

When?

abellwillring · Jan 19, 2022

It could be an issue in general. Either way, the price is a very good one for MS. ATVI is artificially low and should be around $100 a share based on their fundamentals as is that analyst's target. MS probably saved at least $25B or so over what they would have likely had to pay if the scandals hadn't popped. It's possible that they may end up having to pay a slightly higher premium by the time the deal closes, but I'd be shocked if it didn't go through.

Diarrhea Day-Lewis · Jan 19, 2022

I think they will even if they want us to think for years they will be exclusive. Imo 70B, half of Microsoft's cash, is Way too much to spend and not turn Xbox/game pass into a platform agnostic Office like app that works on PS and Nintendo too, giving them a small cut on subs

they literally are never going to make money off game pass unless like 100M+ console less gamers on smart TVs and phones sub monthly in addition to those on Xbox and PC. The billion gamers thing is a pipe dream imo. If Apple's marketing team can't get a large amount of users who spend $600-$1000 on their phones to sub to Arcade after free trials (even if arcade is nowhere the service game pass is) I do not think Xbox will be the ones to break that barrier.

i think we will have a repeat of last gen roughly with Sony selling 100M more or less, Switch 2 doing 80-120M, and Xbox series doing 50-70M. In the end, there will probably be 150-200M Sony and Nintendo devices that Xbox will want to put game pass on in 2025+.

valentine71 · Jan 19, 2022

onesvenus said:
How do you define a monopoly? With every imaginable metric, Microsoft + ActiBlizzard is not in a monopolistic position

After Bethesda acquisition, there were members here who called that move "RPG monopoly". And by that logic this one can be defined as "Call of Duty" monopoly.

DJKippling · Jan 19, 2022

Mindwipe said:
The Bethesda acquisition was literally a tenth of the size, and one of the factors the EU competition investigation primarily raised in not making a further investigation was Bethesda's small market position. None of those are true in this case.

I mean it is. Just because its a bigger company doesn't mean it holds a huge shar overall in the market. Gaming is magnitudes bigger than Activision. in terms of gaming overall, its still small and will face no issues just like Bethesda. They wouldn't have even tried to purchase at all in the first place if there would have bene issues.

Spork4000 · Jan 19, 2022

Shatty McKracken said:
I don't think so.
It appears Microsoft is following the Disney model. If Disney has been able to buy up everything with little resistance then why not Microsoft ?

We had different regulators when Disney did what they did. That's the elephant in the room that people seem to be ignoring. I think the deal is likely to go through, but it's not 100%.

DJKippling said:
I mean it is. Just because its a bigger company doesn't mean it holds a huge shar overall in the market. Gaming is magnitudes bigger than Activision. in terms of gaming overall, its still small and will face no issues just like Bethesda. They wouldn't have even tried to purchase at all in the first place if there would have bene issues.

It really depends on how the market is defined and that is determined by the regulators themselves. No one can really predict how they'll define it, but "gaming" is probably too broad. That said companies try to buy things and get blocked all the time. See the above Nvidia/ARM merger.

valentine71 · Jan 19, 2022

Jaded Alyx said:
Goodness me, when does this end?

When?

Never... Even years after the game is released, there will be people who will say that it is just "timed exclusivity".

Kuga · Jan 19, 2022

I don't find the logic in the article compelling at all, and don't foresee any significant hurdles to U.S. regulators approving the the acquisition. It isn't like ABK games don't have "substitutes", nor does Microsoft's size in the industry (3rd largest after this deal) appear to pose any risk of attracting antitrust attention from a legal standpoint.

My guess is that Microsoft will treat ABK's games the same way as they did Bethesda -- existing games, contracts, and announcements will remain unchanged but all future games will be Xbox/PC/Mobile with rare exceptions unless Sony or Nintendo decide to allow Gamepass on the platform.

Dr. Mario · Jan 19, 2022

I'm not a lawyer, but I cant see any anti trust case for the platform it's on, when there are multiple healthy platforms competing with each other and Xbox is the smallest. The only anti trust case I could see is for the US publishing market, where after Microsoft has consolidated Activision and Zenimax, Microsoft has a near monopoly and the only real competitor EA might feel themselves being bullied in putting EA Play on Gamepass for various reasons.

scottbeowulf · Jan 19, 2022

They wont allow games on the Playstation but they're gonna port everything over to Vita just for fun

Spork4000 · Jan 19, 2022

Dr. Mario said:
I'm not a lawyer, but I cant see any anti trust case for the platform it's on, when there are multiple healthy platforms competing with each other and Xbox is the smallest. The only anti trust case I could see is for the US publishing market, where after Microsoft has consolidated Activision and Zenimax, Microsoft has a near monopoly and the only real competitor EA might feel themselves being bullied in putting EA Play on Gamepass for various reasons.

Really depends on how you define the market, like I said before. If a regulator wanted to say the market was high in TV connected dedicated gaming machines they could, and then leave out the switch for some reason. Not saying it's going to happen, but it's worth the discussion at least.

Parthenios · Jan 19, 2022

Call of Duty will remain on Playstation... they'll just require GamePass to play it.

HorseFD · Jan 19, 2022

The analyst, Sarah Simon, is referred to as "the expert". What exactly is her expertise? Is she a lawyer? I believe she's just a market analyst.

UltraMagnus · Jan 19, 2022

Parthenios said:
Call of Duty will remain on Playstation... they'll just require GamePass to play it.

I don't actually see this happening at all. I know MS payed lip service to "wanting Game Pass everywhere", but that was just PR talk.

If you can get Game Pass on Playstation ... why would anyone buy an XBox ever? You get all the XBox content via GP and Playstation stuff, so what is the XBox then?

MS won't do it even if Sony would allow it (which they won't). MS wants Game Pass everywhere, but it'll also be on their terms and they're not going to tank their XBox division, they know they have the content advantage now and people will just have to buy an XBox or PC.

Parthenios · Jan 19, 2022

UltraMagnus said:
I don't actually see this happening at all. I know MS payed lip service to the possibility of it, but that was just PR talk.

If you can get Game Pass on Playstation ... why would anyone buy an XBox ever? You get all the XBox content via GP and Playstation stuff, so what is the XBox then?

MS won't do it even if Sony would allow it (which they won't).

If you can get GamePass on PC, why buy an Xbox?

If Microsoft's goal is to sell recurring subscriptions and not necessarily one time hardware purchases, the play here is obvious. In other words, Xbox may exist to sell GamePass and not the other way around.

wollywinka · Jan 19, 2022

Not gonna happen. As others have pointed out, MS isn't close to having a monopoly. Also, the acquired IPs will be multi-platform. In 18 months, once the Activision deal is finalised, MS could probably buy Take Two without any interference whatsoever. You need a dominant position before you can abuse it.

UltraMagnus · Jan 19, 2022

Parthenios said:
If you can get GamePass on PC, why buy an Xbox?

If Microsoft's goal is to sell recurring subscriptions and not necessarily one time hardware purchases, the play here is obvious. In other words, Xbox may exist to sell GamePass and not the other way around.

I mean a lot of people who have Game Pass on PC don't buy an XBox, heh, so I don't think that really proves that point.

I don't think MS is going to undercut their entire XBox division like that.

They know they have the goods now and don't really need to be as diplomatic about stuff, I think all this stuff is going to be XBox exclusive if you're a console player minus Minecraft and maybe a few things thrown Nintendo's way, like Crash Bandicoot games or something.

TripleBee · Jan 19, 2022

When people talk about gamepass coming to PlayStation they mean a streaming app, not native games.

Jaded Alyx · Jan 19, 2022

UltraMagnus said:
I don't actually see this happening at all. I know MS payed lip service to "wanting Game Pass everywhere", but that was just PR talk.

If you can get Game Pass on Playstation ... why would anyone buy an XBox ever? You get all the XBox content via GP and Playstation stuff, so what is the XBox then?

MS won't do it even if Sony would allow it (which they won't). MS wants Game Pass everywhere, but it'll also be on their terms and they're not going to tank their XBox division, they know they have the content advantage now and people will just have to buy an XBox or PC.

You don't need an Xbox now for game pass, or even a PC.

Soon you'll likely be able to just access it on your TV.

inner-G · Jan 19, 2022

They will let you play your games wherever you want, Windows, console (xbox), or on your phone via the cloud.

You won't need to even buy an xbox at all.

chrisPjelly · Jan 19, 2022

Activision is just way too big for Microsoft to make the big guns exclusives in the near term. Considering Playstation is one of Activision's biggest cash flows, there's no chance Microsoft would turn the chance to try break even on the $70B they spent. Give it a couple of generations before we see Microsoft to act brazen about exclusives.

jman1954goat · Jan 19, 2022

UltraMagnus said:
If you can get Game Pass on Playstation ... why would anyone buy an XBox ever?

They want you throwing them 15+ dollars at them every month for the rest of your life not for you to own an Xbox.

Blindman · Jan 19, 2022

UltraMagnus said:
I don't actually see this happening at all. I know MS payed lip service to "wanting Game Pass everywhere", but that was just PR talk.

If you can get Game Pass on Playstation ... why would anyone buy an XBox ever? You get all the XBox content via GP and Playstation stuff, so what is the XBox then?

MS won't do it even if Sony would allow it (which they won't). MS wants Game Pass everywhere, but it'll also be on their terms and they're not going to tank their XBox division, they know they have the content advantage now and people will just have to buy an XBox or PC.

MS would put GamePass on PlayStation, this is a known fact. MS also asked Nintendo if they could put GamePass on switch.

Xbox Everywhere: Phil Spencer wants an Xbox app on as many devices as possible

The future of Xbox is about breaking down barriers to focus on player joy and ease of access

www.gamesradar.com

Not all Xbox games are on GamePass. Xbox console would still have some relevance after MS puts GamePass on PlayStation. Although I would stipulate the process would diminished the value of a Xbox console by a fair margin. But I think long term strategy for Microsoft Games is an console agnostic strategy where the GamePass will allow you to play your digital library anywhere for a fee. And for those that still have disc... there is always an Xbox "360" console.

Panic Freak · Jan 19, 2022

chrisPjelly said:
Activision is just way too big for Microsoft to make the big guns exclusives in the near term. Considering Playstation is one of Activision's biggest cash flows, there's no chance Microsoft would turn the chance to try break even on the $70B they spent. Give it a couple of generations before we see Microsoft to act brazen about exclusives.

Generations? Lol. The very first possible exclusive Call of Duty will be exclusive to game pass platforms.

Deleted member 46948 · Jan 19, 2022

No. This deal is going to go through and MS will be able to do whatever they want with the games.

NinjaScooter · Jan 19, 2022

I feel like the further Playstation starts getting into services/subscriptions themselves (which isn't happening at the rate of MS with GamePass, but it feels like its where the industry is headed large parts), the less likely you are going to see GamePass on Playstation. Allowing GamePass wholesale would basically be Sony inviting MS to come in and eat a bunch of their revenue via services and third party game sales. The alternative would be Xbox creating a curated version of GamePass for Playstation (and possibly Nintendo) that only includes first party content, but I'm not sure that's the road Microsoft wants to go down, fragmenting GamePass as a service even further. As time goes along "Will GamePass ever be on Playstation" is going to start to sound like "Will Disney+ ever be on Netflix?"

UltraMagnus · Jan 19, 2022

Jaded Alyx said:
You don't need an Xbox now for game pass, or even a PC.

Soon you'll likely be able to just access it on your TV.

Which can be MS' message to PS5 owners, heh.

Scottoest · Jan 19, 2022

No, regulators aren't going to demand something like this. Ignoring that they're not the market leading game platform and that they also still wouldn't have anything close to a monopoly position on game publishing or development when this deal closes - they make their games available via multiple avenues and storefronts. They could also point to their open overtures to make their games available on other platforms via Game Pass.

And I'm saying that despite thinking they may potentially keep publishing CoD on PlayStation. But it'd be for business reasons, not because a regulator told them they had to.

UltraMagnus · Jan 19, 2022

Blindman said:
MS would put GamePass on PlayStation, this is a known fact. MS also asked Nintendo if they could put GamePass on switch.

Xbox Everywhere: Phil Spencer wants an Xbox app on as many devices as possible

The future of Xbox is about breaking down barriers to focus on player joy and ease of access

www.gamesradar.com

Not all Xbox games are on GamePass. Xbox console would still have some relevance after MS puts GamePass on PlayStation. Although I would stipulate the process would diminished the value of a Xbox console by a fair margin. But I think long term strategy for Microsoft Games is an console agnostic strategy where the GamePass will allow you to play your digital library anywhere for a fee. And for those that still have disc... there is always an Xbox "360" console.

We'll see, I just would not be surprised if that never happens.

Things change now that they own Bethesda-Zenimax and Activision-Blizzard ... I don't think they really have much incentive to want to placate Sony who's just going to make their own Game Pass competitor, why throw a life line to someone who's going to create a competing service.

Spencer is a nice, diplomatic guy but in board room meetings likely there is going to be a lot of people at MS saying it's better to simply put Sony in the rear view mirror sooner than later.

Once they are no longer the market leader, then MS can dictate what terms they want if they even want that option by that point.

Of course you want wide accessibility and I'm not saying that's not important to MS, but Game Pass being available to people via Cloud/smartphones, via TV app (Cloud), or XBox or PC means virtually everyone has a way to access the service as is, you don't need a Playstation for that.

MattHeus · Jan 19, 2022

I really do not understand how some people here actually believe that Microsoft is paying 70B to keep the status quo as it is.

Charpunk · Jan 19, 2022

This wouldn't even make them the biggest gaming company. They aren't going to be forced to do anything. I'm sure Microsoft's lawyers know what they are doing lol

Governergrimm · Jan 19, 2022

WriterInTheDark said:
I like how we're doing this again so soon after the Bethesda thing.

Yeah, but this is "different". In the end we will hear all about how Activision/Blizzard has never been good.

There is so much to unpack here that monopoly is the least interesting aspect of the whole thing.

Jobbs · Jan 19, 2022

Vintage said:
1. MS is already doing that, just with PC, not Playstation. You have Halo day 1 on Steam. They know the value of sales and visibility.
2. There are very little Halo fans on Playstation - small number of sales would not justify losing exclusivity.
3. Mainline Elder Scrolls/Fallout are definitely coming to Playstation.
4. Minecraft is still on all platforms and selling very well.

Minecraft is an existing game. You think they're just going to pull it from shelves and stores? No. They won't pull existing COD games off the shelves for PS either and no one is saying that. But they won't put new future COD games on Playstation (after any possible existing obligations have been delivered on) unless Playstation adds gamepass

RoastBeeph · Jan 19, 2022

Vintage said:
1. MS is already doing that, just with PC, not Playstation. You have Halo day 1 on Steam. They know the value of sales and visibility.
2. There are very little Halo fans on Playstation - small number of sales would not justify losing exclusivity.
3. Mainline Elder Scrolls/Fallout are definitely coming to Playstation.
4. Minecraft is still on all platforms and selling very well.

Have you had your head buried in the sand the last year? Number 3 is definitely not true. Microsoft has confirmed all future Bethesda titles are Xbox / PC only. Same will happen with Call of Duty / Diablo / etc. Any non-online only Activision Blizzard title will be Xbox / PC only, like Call of Duty.

Dekuman · Jan 19, 2022

NinjaScooter said:
CoD titles are so evergreen that I could understand, moreso than with even Bethesda's stuff because they pump them out yearly, the idea that you'd have to continue to release them on multiple platforms to continue to draw the kind of revenue the franchise does on annual basis, however, Activision Blizzard (especially on the Activision side) is basically a CoD company. Yeah they pop out a Tony hawk or Crash every few years, and Diablo does well for them on consoles, but their business is driven by CoD Warzone and CoD annual releases. If they were to continue publishing those games on Playstation, then the only real advantage MS gains is having those same CoD annual releases day and date on GamePass, and while that's an advantage, is that something you pay $70 billion for? It just doesn't make sense. I could see Warzone continue to be supported on Playstation but post-2023 I'd be shocked if there were any mainline CoD games on Playstation. Yes that might "shrink" the CoD brand, yes that might mean they bring in less revenue from MTX, but that's not MS' end game. they are effectively treating these publisher purchases as loss leaders to drive GamePass growth.

A game with annualized entries aren't considered evergreen, evergreens are stuff like GTAV and Mario Kart 8 DX . Stuff that keeps on selling.

Is there a possibility that the Activision deal only comes through, if MS commits to not make their games exclusive? Article inside

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