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LA Times: New study suggests the chance of a big San Andreas quake has tripled
- Thread starter theusedversion
- Start date
Fear-based clickbait. If you read the article, it is entirely speculative. And still talking about extraordinarily low percentages. It's now tripled all the way up to 1 maybe 2% likelihood.
Yeah that's what I figured.
Earthquakes aren't like any other natural disaster, there's almost no way of knowing when they'll happen in advance. The warning you get will be minutes before it strikes, at best.
Anybody who tells you that scientists can predict when "the big one" is going to happen is blowing smoke out their ass.
But it's only a guess that it's 2%. Idk... it's concerning, as someone who lives in SoCal, but it's also like -- not exactly actionable information. It's not like learning a hurricane is coming.
The threat of the San Andreas faultline going crazy and knocking part of the continent in the ocean has been a recurring nightmare for the US, and it's not that it will never happen, but what is guaranteed to happen is that every year, without fail, that fear will be prodded by the LA Times.
is this happening yearly or something? like, is it nigh-guaranteed to happen in 50 years?
Seismic events are notoriously difficult to predict, which is why they tend to be counted out of multiple millennia.
There will probably be a major incident sometime in the next 5,000 years.
I feel sorry for the future inhabitants of the Canadian-annexed Territories of the Western American Hinterlands.
If it were 2% yearly it would only still have a 64% chance of happening in 50 years!
